NICE WEDNESDAY; MAJOR IMPACTS POSSIBLE FROM TD9 FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY… Nice weather today and Thursday will give way to potentially major impacts from what will likely be Hurricane Isaias on Friday into Saturday. The National Hurricane Center forecasts TD9/Isaias to strengthen into a hurricane before approaching the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Significant impacts will be possible Friday into Saturday, with heavy rain and flooding becoming an increasing concern. Tornadoes will be possible region wide. Significant wind damage may be possible near the immediate coast, depending on the exact future track of Isaias. Today, however, will feature a mix of sunshine and clouds with nearly all communities remaining dry. High temperatures will be in the 82-86° range this afternoon.
THURSDAY WILL BE A NICE WEATHER DAY; LAST FULL DAY TO PREPARE AHEAD OF TD9… Tomorrow will remain dry in most communities as northeasterly winds continue bringing drier air into our region. High temperatures will be in the 83-89° range. With chances of significant impacts from what will likely be Hurricane Isaias increasing Friday, today and Thursday are the time to review your hurricane plans and take care of preparations ahead of potentially severe weather. Please keep checking the forecast as details about the system’s track and strength become more clear today and tomorrow.
HURRICANE IMPACTS FROM TD9/ISAIAS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY… TD9/Isaias continues to organize this morning in the southwestern Gulf. NHC forecasts strengthening today. We note NHC ramps Isaias up to a hurricane on Thursday. The forecast track takes the system north of the Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow, followed by a northeastward turn and an approach to the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Landfall is expected somewhere between Grand Isle, Louisiana and Destin, Florida. Right now, the most likely landfall point is along the Alabama or Mississippi coast, but that is highly subject to change depending on the future track..
ISAIAS: TORNADO RISK EAST OF THE CENTER… Tornadoes will be possible near and east of the center of circulation where Isaias ultimately makes landfall. While tornadoes can happen on the western side of hurricanes, that is not common. It’s VERY common, however, to have tornadoes on the eastern side of the storm. Usually these tornadoes are brief, but as we saw with Tropical Storm Claudette in 2021, sometimes tropical tornadoes can be on the ground for quite some time. An EF2 tornado lasted for 40+ minutes and caused damage from near Riverview/East Brewton, AL all the way to I-65 north of Castleberry in Conecuh County. Have a way to hear warnings on Friday into Saturday!
ISAIAS: HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING RISK… 3-5 inches of total rainfall is expected across south Alabama and northwest Florida with isolated higher amounts being possible. If there is any bit of good news I can dissect from the forecast, it’s that Isaias should be moving at a good clip, hopefully helping to limit widespread, major flooding. That isn’t to say we won’t have any flooding, but the faster forward speed (if the current forecast verifies) should help this risk be limited, at least somewhat.
ISAIAS: WIND DAMAGE MOST LIKELY NEAR COAST WHERE CENTER MOVES IN… Significant wind damage will be possible near where the center of what will be Hurricane Isaias moves inland. Right now, the most likely landfall point seems to be on the Mississippi and Alabama coast, but again, landfall is possible from Grand Isle, Louisiana eastward to Rosemary Beach, Florida.
RIP CURRENT WARNING… Rip currents kill more people than any other weather-related hazard in our local area. A HIGH risk of rip currents will continue at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Dangerous beach conditions are already a concern, even while our weather inland remains nice. Surf will increase later this week. Stay out of the Gulf when red flags are flying!
IMPROVING WEATHER ON SUNDAY… Rain coverage is expected to decrease Sunday compared to Saturday, although lingering showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible. Rain chances will be in the 20-30% range during the day before decreasing further Sunday night. High temperatures will rebound into the low to mid 80s. This is an improving forecast for Sunday, not a completely dry one, and the timing could change depending on how quickly Isaias moves through.
PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY NEXT WEEK… The forecast trends drier early next week. A few showers will remain possible Monday and Tuesday, with lower rain chances into Wednesday of the upcoming week. High temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 80s both days. Our immediate focus remains on the potential for significant tropical impacts Friday into Saturday.
APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!
See all the details in your Wednesday RedZone Weather forecast video. My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. I will have updates posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app.
Have a wonderful Wednesday! Get those hurricane preparations underway!
