Odds are increasing that Tropical Storm Melissa, currently in the central Caribbean Sea, will slowly move westward and become a powerful, major hurricane early next week.
Interests in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba should closely monitor the progress of Melissa. pic.twitter.com/DhT4cjIEq5
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 23, 2025
#Melissa is forecast by the National #Hurricane Center to become a Category 4 hurricane. If it does so, it would be the 4th of the first 5 hurricanes of 2025 to become Cat. 4+. Only 3 other times on record have 4 of the first 5 Atlantic hurricanes reached Cat 4+: 1932, 1999, 2010 pic.twitter.com/fZf7SuW1Kc
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 22, 2025
There are two noteworthy things about the latest NHC forecast for Melissa:
1. This is the first time NHC explicitly forecast rapid intensification at day 3-4 lead time
2. If latest forecast trends hold, this forecast could still be a significant intensity underestimate pic.twitter.com/KggAuFJPIO
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) October 22, 2025
Lockart Alabama: Chance Rd control burn-out of control. Florala and Alabama Forestry units responding. Car 412
— Car 412 (@HRickover) October 22, 2025
Clear skies are in place across the Deep South this afternoon. Tropical Storm Melissa is clearly visible on the true color satellite imagery in the Caribbean.
Melissa won't be moving much at all in the days ahead. The system is expected to become a major hurricane next week. pic.twitter.com/GA8EXs4iuH
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 22, 2025
Tropical Storm Melissa is nearly stationary in the central Caribbean Sea this morning.
The 11AM advisory from the National Hurricane Center now explicitly ramps the system up to major hurricane status near and just south of Jamaica early next week. pic.twitter.com/dOXKdoUIYG
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 22, 2025
Overnight guidance has continued to abandon Melissa turning NE into Hispaniola, and is increasingly concentrated on a west track south of Jamaica – a scenario which could easily support a category 5 hurricane in an exceptionally favorable environment for intensification. pic.twitter.com/gmiykzkqXH
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) October 22, 2025
