7:22PM January 17, 2025
SNOW/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES COMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… The odds of accumulating wintry precipitation across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Tuesday, January 21 are increasing. While it is impossible to know specifics about what locations will get which specific type of precipitation or specific amounts, the overall pattern going into Tuesday looks more conducive for snow/sleet/mixed precipitation across parts of the Deep South, likely including our local area. There is a growing chance this system becomes a highly impactful, disruptive event that could potentially cause widespread issues, including major roadway issues. We are also looking at the potential for an extended period of below freezing temperatures that could last for multiple days – yes, you read that correctly, temperatures may be BELOW freezing from Monday all the way to Wednesday.
RAIN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY… Scattered showers will become possible tonight ahead of rain and thunderstorms becoming more likely on Saturday morning. The greatest chance of a few thunderstorms will happen near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches tomorrow morning. The overall risk of any severe storms remains quite low. The risk is not exactly zero due to the small (<200j/kg) amount of surface-based instability present, but any storms that briefly become severe would likely be very localized in nature IF any severe weather happens at all. Most spots will simply have rain and thunder overnight into Saturday. The risk of any severe storms goes to zero after the passage of a cold front tomorrow in the P.M. hours. COLD AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY… Temperatures will likely “go the wrong way” all day on Sunday, meaning temperatures will be around 58° just after midnight, near 48° by 6AM, near 45° by 3PM, and near 30° by 10PM. This frigid, Arctic air mass will move in Sunday and will stick around for several days. Clouds on Sunday will probably persist for much of the day with a few peeks of sunshine being possible in the late afternoon hours.
WINTER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY… Guidance has become much more robust over the last 12 hours, suggesting the likelihood of accumulating wintry precipitation across parts of the Deep South on Tuesday into Wednesday of the upcoming week. We are shifting from an “IF snow/mix will happen,” to a “when and where it will happen,” AND “who gets what type of precipitation.” Some of these lingering questions probably won’t be able to be resolved until Sunday or even Monday. Please understand that winter storms in the Deep South are rare meaning there inevitably WILL be some surprises. That means once we get closer to the event on Tuesday, I will present scenarios that may sound extreme on both ends of what might happen. What actually happens will probably be somewhere between the two extremes.
WINTER STORM – TIMING… Monday should be dry and quite cold with highs near 38-40°. We will be in the mid 20s Monday night. Wintry precipitation may begin as early as 4AM Monday across parts of west Alabama. The main batch of precipitation will likely push across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida from 8AM to 8PM Tuesday. Lingering snow showers may be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The timing presented here is **highly subject to change** over the next few days as guidance continues to arrive. Please check back in for updates and don’t assume over the next few days that these time frames are set in stone.
NO WAY TO PINPOINT WHO GETS WHAT PRECIP TYPE JUST YET… It seems almost hard to believe despite the extreme social media hype and chatter about this system, but we are still 4 days out from this winter storm potential. That means it is entirely too early to pinpoint exactly where precipitation “lines” will set up and what communities will get which precipitation type. Generally speaking, the greater chance of snow looks to happen inland while the freezing rain potential will more likely happen closer to the coast. Just to be clear though, four days from now, we may be looking at a situation where we ALL get snow or we ALL have sleet and/or freezing rain. I would bet the truth is probably in the middle of those two extreme solutions, however. Again, please check back in for updates in the days ahead. I will have another detailed post tomorrow night with the latest information.
PROLONGED FREEZE LIKELY FROM MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY… Once temperatures sink below freezing on Monday evening around 7PM, there is a growing chance we may not have temperatures above 32° until Wednesday around 11AM. That’s approximately 40 consecutive hours of subfreezing temperatures – something that has not happened in our local area in many years. NOW, emphasis on NOW, is the time to prepare accordingly. Plan on outside pets being inside all day Tuesday along with any sensitive plants. Temperatures probably won’t stay above freezing very long on Wednesday (maybe 5-6 hours). This will be an extended, extreme cold snap!
A NOTE ABOUT SNOW MAPS… I cannot tell you how many snow ensemble maps, model maps, and hand generated “rain/snow/mix” line maps I have seen over the last few days. It is surprising, considering NO ONE actually knows where these lines will set up, at this stage. It is physically impossible to know at this point. I choose not to post data that changes at the drop of a hat every six hours (raw model guidance). I also am not going to attempt to generate a precise estimate of where the rain/snow/mix lines will set up at this stage. The skill and accuracy for forecasting winter storms 3+ days out in our part of the world is lackluster, to say the least. The map attached is simply a generalization highlighting the greater probability for snow to the north and freezing rain to the south. Tornadoes and hurricanes have a far greater forecast accuracy and precision compared to winter storms in the Deep South. Once we get into Sunday and Monday, I will be far more willing to give an estimate of where these snow/mix/rain lines will set up. Just know, other sources choosing to post these maps will likely have wild, inconsistent swings over the next few days.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have more updates posted on Saturday and Sunday in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Friday evening!
