ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT; LOW-END TORNADO RISK NEAR COAST… After a long duration severe weather event this morning that caused downed trees and power lines in several communities across the region, we have more active weather on the way in the overnight hours. The good news is I expect much, if not all, of the severe weather issues to be confined to areas closer to the coast. There is some chance that all of the severe storms remain completely offshore with land areas simply experiencing rain and thunder. Thunderstorms are expected to clear out of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida to the east between 4-6AM tomorrow morning.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY… The high-resolution guidance continues to suggest stable air will dominate our weather pattern over the next several hours. 9PM tonight to 6AM tomorrow morning is the time frame for when strong to severe storms may happen overnight across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida, IF the threat materializes. There is some chance (detailed below) that all of the severe storms remain to our south across the northern Gulf of Mexico. We encourage everyone to have a way to hear urgent weather warnings overnight JUST IN CASE storms become severe. MOST spots probably won’t have severe weather issues, particularly farther inland.
RANGE OF SCENARIOS FOR TONIGHT… It is often the case that we have a range of scenarios that may happen in our weather patterns across the region. Below are two scenarios that may happen along with some commentary regarding which solution may be correct.
BEST CASE SCENARIO – RAIN & THUNDER… It is going to rain tonight across much of, if not all, of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Rain will probably be heavier and more consistent closer to the coast with rain not lasting AS long farther inland. There will be embedded thunderstorms, perhaps loud thunderstorms at times. The closer you are to the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches, the higher the chance of thunderstorms. There is a significant chance, however, that all of the severe thunderstorms may remain to our south in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The system moving in from the west later tonight may try to move in a more favorable corridor where the atmosphere has not been worked over by previous storms. In this case, that more favorable corridor is offshore where stronger storms have not happened. Land areas took the brunt of the action this morning. There is a good chance storms coming in from Louisiana and perhaps southern Mississippi move more south/east of our area. While it is far from certain, I would suggest this is probably the most likely solution as of now.
WORST CASE SCENARIO TONIGHT – SEVERE STORMS NEAR COAST… If storms coming out of Louisiana and Mississippi develop and start moving east and are oriented a bit farther north in latitude (even by just a few miles), we may have more of a tornado threat near the bays and beaches tonight. Places like Mobile, the Eastern Shore, Foley, Orange Beach, Pensacola, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Elgin AFB, Destin, Miramar Beach, and Seaside would have a higher tornado risk in this scenario. Damaging wind and hail may also be slightly more likely to happen across inland areas. The overall tornado risk farther inland remains quite low, even in this particular scenario. The risk is NOT zero, but it is lower. This is because storms earlier simply worked over the atmosphere to the point that tornadoes seem less likely AND a warm front remains closer to the coast and has not moved farther inland.
REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION – BE ABLE TO HEAR WARNINGS… Regardless of which particular solution appears more likely to happen tonight, we encourage you to have a way to hear warnings. That applies whether you’re nearer to the coast or you’re farther inland. We will “go live” if tornado warnings are needed locally, per our longstanding policy.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON… It is worth mentioning that some of the high-resolution, convective allowing model (CAMs) guidance has started picking up on the potential for another round of thunderstorms developing on Tuesday in the afternoon and evening hours. I am a bit skeptical of this right now, and it would appear that even if storms develop, the environment would not be particularly supportive of severe storms. Regardless, be aware there is at least some potential for a few showers and storms tomorrow (Tuesday) in the afternoon and evening hours. Rain and storms will come to a close tomorrow evening. Wednesday and Thursday morning will be dry.
MORE STORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK… Thursday evening will probably feature more in the way of scattered showers. Thunderstorms will yet again become possible on Friday and on Saturday. Some of the early guidance points to another heavy rainfall potential with some chance of flash flooding. Strong to severe storms may also become possible. We will focus on the details of this weekend after we get through storms tonight and tomorrow.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have more updates posted over the next several hours in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Monday evening!
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