These are the two cells that warrant the most attention over the next 30 minutes or so. The storms over Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Malbis, and Montrose CURRENTLY are under severe limits.
Need to really watch that cell out over the bay as it meanders. Also watching east end… pic.twitter.com/4py3uCno4A
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 27, 2025
DEWPOINTS TELL THE TALE… This is the local radar with current dewpoint temperatures added. These numbers tell the tale of what is happening this evening.
If your community has a dewpoint LESS than 65°, you’re very likely in good shape with no severe weather threat. Colder air from the northeast will likely keep Covington, Butler, Conecuh, Monroe, and Clarke counties in good shape. Escambia (AL) and Washington counties are at the northern extent of the unsettled air mass, but probably will be in good shape overnight. Northern Okaloosa and Walton counties are in the same boat, in that the air is a bit more stable there compared to down at the coastline in those counties.
65-70° is the range where the airmass could support a few stronger to marginally severe storms. This zone includes inland stretches of Mobile, Baldwin, northern Escambia (FL), and northern Santa Rosa counties.
70°+ is the range where the air mass is soupy, ripe, and ready for storms. This zone includes southern Mobile and southern Baldwin counties along with beach communities in Escambia (FL) and Santa Rosa counties.
Just like what happened earlier today, it looks like zones south of Interstate 10 have the greatest risk of a few tornadoes overnight. Now you know the logic behind that statement!
Other storms are happening in Baldwin County and near the west end of Dauphin Island, but what has my attention as of 7:57PM is this large supercell over southern Mobile Bay.
No immediate threat to land, but we need to watch it as it slowly drifts north over Mobile Bay. pic.twitter.com/SIQYdbUxpc
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 27, 2025
ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR COAST MAY CAUSE A FEW TORNADOES OVERNIGHT… Unfortunately, the expected Round 2 (of 2) of the strong to severe thunderstorms is materializing this evening across Mobile Bay, the Mississippi Sound, and the northern Gulf near Dauphin Island and Ft. Morgan. These storms will expand in size and very slowly translate to the east over the next several hours. The Storm Prediction Center now has a Level 2 (out of 5) tornado risk in place for much of Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties, specifically the southern parts of these counties closer to the coast. These are the zones where the air mass in place is a bit more unstable and may support a few tornadoes in addition to very heavy rainfall. Everyone should have multiple ways to hear warnings before you go to sleep tonight, just in case a tornado warning is needed for your specific location!
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – OVERNIGHT… There was some thought earlier that the first round of storms that happened this morning and this afternoon may stabilize the atmosphere to the point that this second round of storms doesn’t fire up. Unfortunately, the atmosphere has destabilized to the point that we are now seeing strong storms develop near Mobile Bay. The progression to the east will be slow, plain and simple, although we may see some new storms develop in the northern Gulf that push onshore in Northwest Florida before these storms arrive. The severe weather risk will be most pronounced for Mobile and Baldwin counties over the next few hours until 1AM. The risk will ramp up across northwest Florida after 10PM and extend into the overnight hours. Please have something that can wake you up (like a NOAA Weather Radio) in case your specific location goes under a tornado warning overnight.
FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS… Parts of southern Baldwin (AL) and southern Escambia (FL) counties had extreme rain amounts earlier today. Several rain gauges near Orange Beach, specifically, ended up with 8+ inches of total rainfall just this morning. This means that flash flooding may happen quickly across coastal areas and become quite significant in a hurry. These storms will be efficient and prolific rain producers overnight for areas near the coast. It cannot be stressed enough, if you encounter a water-covered roadway, please “turn around, don’t drown.” We lose way too many folks across America each year to this totally preventable cause of death.
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON MONDAY DURING THE DAY… I expect most of the daytime hours of Monday to be dry with a few lingering showers being possible in the morning and early afternoon hours. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the low 70s.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and YouTube Live. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have more updates posted throughout the evening and into tonight in the RedZone Weather app.
Have a great Sunday night!
Unfortunately, Round 2 (of 2) of the strong to severe storms seems to be materializing this evening. Scattered storms are developing in parts of Mobile, Baldwin, and Jackson (MS) counties.
Already seeing weak, broad rotation in some of these storms.
Be able to get warnings over… pic.twitter.com/GEmYZaWKIr
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 27, 2025
Amazing storm structure through the rain this evening just offshore of Pensacola beach, Fl.
Tornado threat looks to have waned for now. More storms possible later tonight. pic.twitter.com/0P75Rx6gvr— Tyler Smith (@TylerSmith_wx) October 26, 2025
Hurricane Melissa has resumed intensifying this evening in the west-central Caribbean Sea. This is a long nightmare situation for Jamaica with tropical storm conditions expected continuously until hurricane conditions start tomorrow night.
Catastrophic damage is likely in… pic.twitter.com/f5CiqwOWSh
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 26, 2025
