The National Hurricane Center is indicating there is a very high chance we will be tracking Tropical Storm Alberto in the next 24 hours. There is a high chance advisories will need to be initiated later today. Here’s the latest visible satellite shot showing thunderstorm action has increased drastically on the eastern flank of the system…

I’m observing several ship reports from the western Caribbean that suggest barometric pressure has declined to the 1003-1007mb range. Wind gusts are in the 25-35mph range. A tropical depression may be in the early stages of forming.

The National Hurricane Center continues to indicate a 90% chance that a tropical storm will form over the next 4 days. NHC has also increased the risk of formation in the next 24-36 hours to 90%, thus advisories may be initiated later today.

Expected local impacts continue to be very heavy rain that could lead to a major flash flooding/flood event, possible tornadoes, coastal flooding, and gusty winds at area beaches.

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The accompanying Facebook video will be posted shortly in the post above. Here is the morning forecast discussion…

HEAVY RAIN STARTS LATE SATURDAY; POP-UP STORMS TODAY… The National Hurricane Center continues to indicate there is a 90% chance that a tropical storm will develop this weekend and move north across the Gulf of Mexico. Confidence is now much higher that south Alabama and northwest Florida will have direct impacts from this system. Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding & river and creek flooding is expected, a few tornadoes will be possible, and gusty winds are expected at local beaches.

POP-UP STORMS THIS AFTERNOON… The “loud and proud” thunderstorms that fire up across south Alabama and northwest Florida today are not associated with the tropical system. These are pulse, seabreeze-type thunderstorms that fire up and die out fairly quickly. Similar to previous days, there will be heavy downpours of rain and lots of lightning in the storms. I’ll have radar checks in the RedZone Weather app this afternoon.

SATURDAY EVENING: START OF TROPICAL DOWNPOURS… Showers and storms will again be likely on Saturday, and the risk of heavy rain across our area will greatly increase Saturday evening. The risk of isolated tornadoes will likely rise Saturday evening into early Sunday morning and remain elevated through Tuesday. Much of this will depend on when the center of circulation forms in the southern Gulf and starts moving north. We note NWS Mobile has much of our local area included in a Flash Flood Watch valid from Saturday evening to Tuesday evening.

SUNDAY & MONDAY… This is when the risk of tornadoes, heavy rain, and flash flooding will be most likely across south Alabama and northwest Florida, based on the latest model guidance. Again, there is a HIGH RISK of flash flooding during this time. This will also equate into river & creek flooding across the region. Rain amounts will likely be greatest closer to the coast (7-14″ in total through Tuesday), but inland areas are by no means “out of the woods.” (5-9″ of rain expected in inland areas through Tuesday)

TUESDAY… Flooding will likely be ongoing on Tuesday and heavy rain could potentially still be falling much of the day on Tuesday. The tornado risk could also extend into Tuesday based on the specific track of the tropical system.

GET THE WARNINGS… Please have a way to receive urgent weather warnings for your specific location! NOW is the time to prepare and realize your multiple ways of getting the warnings. Our RedZone Weather app is free. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you get our app, please visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alerts Settings” button to customize the alerts you want to receive from me. I would strongly suggest having our app, but more importantly, MULTIPLE ways to get the warnings. You never know when our service or any other service will have an outage! Hopefully never, but we all need to be prepared. Weather Radio is a great app for the automated warnings. NOAA weather radios are also fantastic tools that don’t rely on your cellular network.

I’ll have updates throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. My next Facebook video update will be later this evening. See you then & have a great Friday!

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