DORIAN LIKELY TO BECOME MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY; SUNNY, HOT LOCALLY… Hurricane Dorian is moving northwest toward the Florida Peninsula. Dorian has strengthened some over the last 12 hours and maximum winds are now in excess of 105 mph. Evacuation orders will probably begin to be issued today in parts of eastern Florida near the coast as Dorian is quickly growing into a dangerous hurricane capable of producing potentially extensive damage. The good news for south Alabama and northwest Florida is that model data continues to consistently support the idea of Dorian remaining well to our east in the coming days. That is not a 100% guarantee at this point, but we are certainly moving in the right direction with the data. When you step outside today, you certainly wouldn’t know there is a major hurricane developing several hundred miles to our southeast! We’ve got a hot, full day of sunshine on tap with high temperatures slated to be in the mid-90s. High school football looks dry and warm tonight. We’ve got all the details for you this morning. Let’s go!

FRIDAY MORNING – POTENTIAL DORIAN IMPACTS FOR SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… The latest data, including most major weather models overnight, suggests that there is a growing chance that Hurricane Dorian remains well to the east of south Alabama and northwest Florida as we go into next week. It is too early to give an “all clear,” but we continue to move toward that with each passing hour and each new model run that shows Dorian remaining to our east. As I always caution though, models can and will change. While there is good confidence in the short-term, beyond 4-5 days out is a bit more tricky when it comes to forecasting exactly where Dorian will be. Most of the reliable, major weather models indicate Dorian will either approach the eastern/Atlantic coast of Florida and take a sharp, right, northerly turn OR make landfall somewhere along the eastern coast of Florida and THEN turn to the north. There are some outlier models that still bring Dorian completely across the Florida Peninsula into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but based on the trends today, it is prudent to call those models outliers for now.

SUNNY LOCALLY TODAY; P.M. STORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND… We will be completely dry today and into tonight across south Alabama and northwest Florida with thunderstorms remaining offshore. High temperatures will be in the mid-90s by 3PM. Showers and thunderstorms could happen on both Saturday and Sunday afternoon. These storms won’t be severe and the overall tornado risk remains near zero. These storms also are not associated with Hurricane Dorian. They’re the typical pop-up thunderstorms associated with the local seabreeze. Highs will be in the 90s this weekend with morning lows in the low-70s.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FORECAST… High school football kicks off tonight in most locales at 7PM across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The chance of rain remains VERY low (0-10% chance of rain from 6PM to 9PM) and I expect vast majority of the games across our region to be dry. Temperatures at 7PM will be around 84°, falling to 78° by 9PM.

MAJOR IMPACTS FOR FLORDA PENINSULA… The magnitude of specific impacts from Hurricane Dorian for the Florida Peninsula will depend largely on where the specific center of the system moves in the days ahead, right up until the point of potential landfall. In addition to 140+ mph winds in coastal areas, very heavy rain and flooding will be a major concern. This concern will be exacerbated if Dorian slows down or stalls over any given area in the Florida Peninsula. 10-15”+ of rain could happen in isolated spots, and those numbers may have to be adjusted higher over the next few days. Depending on the exact track of Dorian, tornadoes could also be a concern. Generally areas along and east of the center of the circulation of a hurricane have the worst and most frequent tornado issues. Storm surge and coastal flooding will also be major concerns.

EXTENSIVE DORIAN IMPACTS LIKELY IN PARTS OF FLORIDA PENINSULA… The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center says that Dorian will likely approach the Atlantic/eastern coast of Florida as a very dangerous category 4, major hurricane on Sunday into Monday. Interests in and near West Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie, Fort Pierce, Vero Beach, Palm Bay, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Titusville, Merritt Island, Orlando, New Smyrna Beach, Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, Palm Coast, St. Augustine, Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, Brunswick (GA), and Savannah (GA) should CLOSELY monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane setup. Rapid intensification is not out of the question, and the intensity forecast of Dorian may have to be adjusted higher in future forecasts! Don’t get so caught up in the category number (whether it’s a 3, 4, or 5) that you forget that potentially EXTREME impacts could happen in some of these areas!

Here are the college football game forecasts from previous posts that remains right on target…

ALABAMA VS. DUKE IN ATLANTA… The Alabama Crimson Tide will battle the Duke Blue Devils inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia this Saturday at 2:30PM CDT. High temperatures in Atlanta around kickoff time will be around 91° with partly cloudy skies in place. Low (10-20%) rain chances mean it should be a nice, hot day for folks headed to the game.

AUBURN VS. OREGON IN DALLAS… The Auburn Tigers kick off against the Oregon Ducks on Saturday at 6:30PM CDT with a primetime slot on local ABC stations. The game will be inside AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas (Dallas). Low (10-20%) rain chances with kickoff temperatures near 87° are expected.

TROY VS. CAMPBELL IN TROY… Troy kicks off its football season at home against Campbell on Saturday at 5PM CDT. You can watch the game online on ESPN+. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be around in the afternoon and evening hours, but there is a good chance that game time will be dry. 30-40% chance of rain in Troy with high temperatures on Saturday near 91°. Plenty of humidity in place! Kickoff temperatures will be around 86°.

SOUTH ALABAMA AT NEBRASKA IN LINCOLN… The South Alabama Jaguars travel to Lincoln, Nebraska to take on the Cornhuskers. The game kicks off at 11AM CDT Saturday on ESPN. There will be scattered showers around during that timeframe in Lincoln. We’ll call it a 30-40% chance of rain with game time temperatures near 70°.

APP ALERTS… Many consistent updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. Everyone should toggle ON Medium-Level Alerts. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

See all the graphics, details, and latest on Hurricane Dorian in your Friday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

JUST IN FROM HURRICANE HUNTERS: DORIAN STRENGTHENING; WINDS UP TO 95MPH… New data coming in moments ago from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft team suggests that Hurricane Dorian is strengthening. Maximum winds are up to 95 mph per the latest recon dropsondes. Note that this won’t be reflected “officially” in an advisory until 10PM CDT. Dorian will likely continue to progressively strengthen over the next 3-4 days as it approaches the Florida Peninsula. The good news to report this evening is that impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida seem less likely to happen. That certainly is NOT set in stone, but it is what model trends have suggested all day. Please see the potential impacts discussion for more details about this (below). We could have extensive impacts in central/east Florida early next week as the core of Dorian approaches. Join me in this special live video update as we delve into the latest details…

POTENTIAL IMPACTS ASSESSMENT FOR SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA – THURSDAY EVENING… It has been a good day in the model world with nearly all weather models now pointing to Hurricane Dorian remaining to the east of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. While trends are working in our favor for now, we all know that can change very quickly. Most of the reliable, major weather models indicate Dorian will either approach the eastern/Atlantic coast of Florida and take a sharp, right, northerly turn OR make landfall somewhere along the eastern coast of Florida and THEN turn to the north. There are some outlier models that still bring Dorian completely across the Florida Peninsula into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but based on the trends today, it is prudent to call those models outliers for now. I am certainly not ready to give any type of “all clear” for our local area just yet, but I am encouraged by model trends nonetheless. We strongly encourage you to check back with us tomorrow and into the weekend.

MAJOR IMPACTS FOR FLORDA PENINSULA… The magnitude of specific impacts from Hurricane Dorian for the Florida Peninsula will depend largely on where the specific center of the system moves in the days ahead, right up until the point of potential landfall. In addition to 130+ mph winds in coastal areas, very heavy rain and flooding will be a major concern. This concern will be exacerbated if Dorian slows down or stalls over any given area in the Florida Peninsula. 10-15”+ of rain could happen in isolated spots, and those numbers may have to be adjusted higher over the next few days. Depending on the exact track of Dorian, tornadoes could also be a concern. Generally areas along and east of the center of the circulation of a hurricane have the worst and most frequent tornado issues. Storm surge and coastal flooding will also be major concerns.

EXTENSIVE DORIAN IMPACTS LIKELY IN PARTS OF FLORIDA PENINSULA… The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center says that Dorian will likely approach the Atlantic/eastern coast of Florida as a very dangerous category 4, major hurricane on Sunday into Monday. Interests in and near West Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie, Fort Pierce, Vero Beach, Palm Bay, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Titusville, Merritt Island, Orlando, New Smyrna Beach, Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, Palm Coast, St. Augustine, Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, Brunswick (GA), and Savannah (GA) should CLOSELY monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane setup. Rapid intensification is not out of the question, and the intensity forecast of Dorian may have to be adjusted higher in future forecasts! Don’t get so caught up in the category number (whether it’s a 3, 4, or 5) that you forget that potentially EXTREME impacts could happen in some of these areas!

LATEST NHC ADVISORY ON DORIAN… We currently are not getting the intermediate (every 3 hour) advisories on Dorian as there are no active tropical storm or hurricane watches/warnings. The latest official advisory is from 4PM, although the recon data is being parsed minute-by-minute as of 7:30PM. Hurricane Dorian has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph with higher gusts near the center of the storm. As of 4PM CDT Thursday evening, the center of Dorian was located at 22.5N and 67.7W. Minimum central pressure is down to 986 millibars, and the central pressure will likely continue to progressively fall as strengthening is set to continue. Dorian is moving northwest at 13 mph. Further strengthening is likely. Rapid intensification could happen over the next few days.

HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BAHAMAS SOON… Hurricane Watches may be needed for parts of The Bahamas later tonight or on Friday. A Hurricane Watch will become necessary for parts of the Atlantic coast of Florida probably on Friday evening or Saturday.

APP ALERTS… Many consistent updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. Everyone should toggle ON Medium-Level Alerts. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

NEXT UPDATE… I will have many more updates posted this evening in the RedZone Weather app. My next video update will be posted by 7:15AM on Friday. Be sure to check back with me this weekend for the very latest on an increasingly dangerous Hurricane Dorian. Have a great evening!

DORIAN LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN; COULD BE CAT. 4 EARLY NEXT WEEK… The National Hurricane Center has revised the intensity forecast of Hurricane even higher today, suggesting that the system may be a dangerous category 4 hurricane at the time of a potential landfall along the Florida Peninsula early next week. Dorian continues to organize in a way that is supportive of potentially extreme impacts across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Also of note, the official forecast has slowed somewhat, indicating Dorian may significant slow its forward speed as it approaches Florida. This could allow for more intensification prior to landfall. We are certainly not “out of the woods” just yet in south Alabama or northwest Florida, but the model data over the last 6-12 hours has been encouraging. The latest run of the reliable ECMWF/Euro model is in, essentially showing Dorian significantly affecting the Florida Peninsula before racing northward. Most models show a sharp, right, northerly turn before, at, or shortly after landfall in the Florida Peninsula. If you missed the text discussion this morning, I’ve modified the paragraphs below slightly to add the latest updates.

THURSDAY EARLY EVENING ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL LOCAL (SOUTH AL & NW FL) IMPACTS FROM DORIAN… The trends early this evening are encouraging for Alabama and northwest Florida, with most weather models continuing to keep Dorian well to the east of our local area. Unfortunately, the data is not conclusive enough to be able to give anything close to an “all clear” just yet. IF model trends continue to show a sharp, right, northerly turn when or shortly after Dorian reaches Florida, we can begin to rule out local impacts from the system. We are NOT there yet! It is critical that we all remain diligent and closely monitor the progress of this hurricane as it continues to strengthen and move northwest. Impacts in the Florida Peninsula have the potential to be extensive. Beyond that, it’s impossible to know if or when other areas will have major impacts. We will get another run of the ECMWF/Euro model overnight with more runs of the GFS intermittently in the coming hours.

EXTREME HURRICANE IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN EAST FLORIDA… The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center says that Dorian will likely approach the Atlantic/eastern coast of Florida as a very dangerous category 4, major hurricane on Sunday into Monday. Interests in and near West Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie, Fort Pierce, Vero Beach, Palm Bay, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Titusville, Merritt Island, Orlando, New Smyrna Beach, Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, Palm Coast, St. Augustine, Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, Brunswick (GA), and Savannah (GA) should CLOSELY monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane setup. Rapid intensification is not out of the question, and the intensity forecast of Dorian may have to be adjusted higher in future forecasts! Don’t get so caught up in the category number (whether it’s a 3, 4, or 5) that you forget that potentially EXTREME impacts could happen in some of these areas!

4PM ADVISORY ON HURRICANE DORIAN… Hurricane Dorian has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph with higher gusts near the center of the storm. As of 4PM CDT Thursday evening, the center of Dorian was located at 22.5N and 67.7W. Minimum central pressure is down to 986 millibars, and the central pressure will likely continue to progressively fall as strengthening is set to continue. Dorian is moving northwest at 13 mph. Further strengthening is likely. Rapid intensification could happen over the next few days.

RESIDENTS OF PANAMA CITY TAKING NO CHANCES… I’ve had several images and reports from Panama City, FL showing long lines at area gas stations. Residents are obviously still recovering from the devastation of Hurricane Michael in October of last year. The good news is the latest model guidance continues to suggest Dorian will remain to the east of the Florida Panhandle.

WATCHES & WARNINGS DISCUSSION… Hurricane Watches may be needed for parts of The Bahamas later tonight or on Friday. A Hurricane Watch will become necessary for parts of the Atlantic coast of Florida probably on Friday evening or Saturday.

APP ALERTS… Many consistent updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. Everyone should toggle ON Medium-Level Alerts. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

I’ll have another detailed Hurricane Dorian video update later this evening. Let me know if you have specific questions or concerns.