NEW ADVISORY BY 4:15PM… The National Hurricane Center is set to issue the latest advisory and projected path information for Hurricane Dorian at 4PM. I am in the process of writing an updated potential impacts summary and detailed post that will be posted by 4:15PM. We will issue a Medium-Level Alert in the RedZone Weather app for that new post.

GORGEOUS, HOT DAY… The radar display is completely quiet across south Alabama and northwest Florida as of 3:18PM. Slightly drier air is in place north of a frontal boundary located offshore. No rain issues are expected today or on Friday.

DORIAN CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE; EXTENSIVE IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL FLORIDA… Hurricane Dorian has an unadulterated path to strengthening today and over the next few days with warm sea surface temperatures and little to no atmospheric shear in the projected path zone. Model trends overnight have pointed to a slightly more northerly trajectory for the center of Dorian near or after the landfall in the Florida Peninsula, which would largely spare our local area from potential local impacts however it is still too early to give a conclusive “all clear” just yet. Plenty of sunshine is on tap for our local area on this Thursday. We’ve got more sunshine in store for Friday before more P.M. showers and thunderstorms for Saturday and Sunday. Let’s talk details…

THURSDAY MORNING ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL LOCAL (SOUTH AL & NW FL) IMPACTS FROM DORIAN… The trends this morning are encouraging for Alabama and northwest Florida, with most weather models keeping Dorian well to the east of our local area. Unfortunately, the data is not conclusive enough to be able to give anything close to an “all clear” just yet. IF model trends continue to show a sharp, right, northerly turn when or shortly after Dorian reaches Florida, we can begin to rule out local impacts from the system. We are NOT there yet! It is critical that we all remain diligent and closely monitor the progress of this hurricane as it continues to strengthen and move northwest. Impacts in the Florida Peninsula have the potential to be extensive. Beyond that, it’s impossible to know if or when other areas will have major impacts. The ECWMF/Euro model has shifted back to the east, showing a central or south Florida landfall, followed by a sharp turn to the right/north for Dorian as the system travels straight northward over the Florida Peninsula. That is one idea. The GFS and other models show a more northerly landfall in central or northern Florida. More details will become clear later today as we get more model data in.

MAJOR HURRICANE IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN EAST FLORIDA… The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center says that Dorian will likely approach the Atlantic/eastern coast of Florida as a category 3, major hurricane on Sunday into Monday. Interests in and near West Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie, Fort Pierce, Vero Beach, Palm Bay, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Titusville, Merritt Island, Orlando, New Smyrna Beach, Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, Palm Coast, St. Augustine, Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, Brunswick (GA), and Savannah (GA) should CLOSELY monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane setup. Rapid intensification is not out of the question, and the intensity forecast of Dorian may have to be adjusted higher in future forecasts! It is important to mention the possibility that Dorian could reach category 4 or category 5 intensity, although the models suggesting those possibilities remain outliers for now. Realm of possibility? Yes. Likelihood at this point of a category 4 or 5 hurricane? Not exactly.

WATCHES & WARNINGS DISCUSSION… The tropical storm warnings and hurricane warnings for parts of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands have been discontinued this morning as Dorian moves northwest away from those areas. Hurricane Watches may be needed for the Turks & Caicos islands and parts of The Bahamas later today. A Hurricane Watch will become necessary for parts of the Atlantic coast of Florida probably on Friday or Saturday morning.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN… Erin is a weakening, unorganized area of showers that technically still qualifies as a tropical depression. The system is located several hundred miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Erin is expected to become extratropical today and continue rapidly moving northeast toward Nova Scotia in Canada. No direct, significant impacts to the United States are expected.

SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND ON FRIDAY; HOT… Showers and thunderstorms have been pushed out into the Gulf of Mexico today as slightly drier air is in place. Temperatures will surge into the mid-90s this afternoon across our region. Sunny skies are likely throughout the day. More hot, sunny weather is expected on Friday with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s.

Here is some review information from yesterday. Our football forecasts have been tweaked slightly this morning…

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FORECAST… High school football will be in full swing this Friday at 7PM across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The chance of rain remains VERY low (0-10% chance of rain from 6PM to 9PM on Friday) and I expect vast majority of the games across our region to be dry. Temperatures at 7PM will be around 84°, falling to 78° by 9PM.

ALABAMA VS. DUKE IN ATLANTA… The Alabama Crimson Tide will battle the Duke Blue Devils inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia this Saturday at 2:30PM CDT. High temperatures in Atlanta around kickoff time will be around 91° with partly cloudy skies in place. Low (10-20%) rain chances mean it should be a nice, hot day for folks headed to the game.

AUBURN VS. OREGON IN DALLAS… The Auburn Tigers kick off against the Oregon Ducks on Saturday at 6:30PM CDT with a primetime slot on local ABC stations. The game will be inside AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas (Dallas). Low (10-20%) rain chances with kickoff temperatures near 87° are expected.

TROY VS. CAMPBELL IN TROY… Troy kicks off its football season at home against Campbell on Saturday at 5PM CDT. You can watch the game online on ESPN+. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be around in the afternoon and evening hours, but there is a good chance that game time will be dry. 30-40% chance of rain in Troy with high temperatures on Saturday near 91°. Plenty of humidity in place! Kickoff temperatures will be around 86°.

SOUTH ALABAMA AT NEBRASKA IN LINCOLN… The South Alabama Jaguars travel to Lincoln, Nebraska to take on the Cornhuskers. The game kicks off at 11AM CDT Saturday on ESPN. There will be scattered showers around during that timeframe in Lincoln. We’ll call it a 30-40% chance of rain with game time temperatures near 70°.

14TH ANNIVERSARY OF HURRICANE KATRINA LANDFALL IN LOUISIANA… One of our nation’s worst hurricanes made landfall in Louisiana and Mississippi 14 years ago today, causing devastation unlike many at the time had ever seen. Parts of New Orleans were inundated with unfathomable amounts of water and the Mississippi coastline and areas just inland from there had extreme damage. The worst thing about Katrina was the loss of life. The hurricane directly claimed over 1,800 lives, an unprecedented number in the modern era. We won’t ever forget the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama impact of Hurricane Katrina.

APP ALERTS… Many consistent updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. Everyone should toggle ON Medium-Level Alerts. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

See all the graphics, details, and latest on Dorian in your Thursday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

HURRICANE DORIAN LIKELY TO STRIKE EAST FLORIDA AS MAJOR HURRICANE; UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THAT… Direct quote from the National Hurricane Center technical discussion: “All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a powerful hurricane will be near or over the Florida Peninsula.” The Governor of Florida has declared a state of emergency ahead of Dorian’s arrival this weekend. While certainty continues to increase that parts of the Florida Peninsula will have potentially substantial impacts from Dorian, we still unfortunately don’t have a good idea of where exactly Dorian will go after the initial Florida impact. I expect the model data to continue to improve and tighten up, giving us more confidence, over the next 24-48 hours.

8PM ADVISORY ON HURRICANE DORIAN… Hurricane Dorian is packing maximum sustained winds of 80 mph with higher gusts near the center of the storm. As of 7PM CDT Wednesday evening, the center of Dorian was located at 19.2N and 65.7W. Minimum central pressure is down to 990 millibars, indicating strengthening continues to happen. Dorian is moving northwest at 13 mph. The center of Dorian emerged over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean earlier this afternoon as a category 1 hurricane.

The following is review information from previous posts. This information remains on target this evening, particularly the local impacts discussion.

SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA: POTENTIAL DORIAN IMPACTS DISCUSSION… The big takeaway as far as potential local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida remains that we still do not know whether direct local impacts from Dorian will happen, although the latest model runs point to that being still in the realm of possibilities. Earlier today, I mentioned that the Euro/ECMWF model had featured encouraging trends showing the system remaining to the east of our area, cautioning that further model changes were likely. Indeed, those changes happened. The latest run (12Z) of the Euro/ECMWF model shows a substantial (perhaps category 2 or 3) hurricane slamming into south Florida followed by an emergence over the southern Gulf of Mexico then a rapid turn to the northwest with a potential landfall as a major hurricane in northwest Florida late next week. That is ONE idea from ONE run of ONE model, but I type that out to say: We are, by NO means, “out of the woods” just yet. It’s important to comparatively note that the GFS and Canadian models show a much different scenario, with Dorian making a Florida Peninsula landfall much farther north then very slowly weakening in the days that follow with little to no local impacts in south Alabama or northwest Florida. Again, the big headline here is: Please keep checking back with me for forecast updates in the days ahead. The situation is fluid and evolving rapidly.

MAJOR HURRICANE IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN EAST FLORIDA… The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center now states that Dorian will likely approach the Atlantic/eastern coast of Florida as a category 3, major hurricane on Sunday into Monday. Interests in and near West Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie, Fort Pierce, Vero Beach, Palm Bay, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Titusville, Merritt Island, Orlando, New Smyrna Beach, Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, Palm Coast, St. Augustine, Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, Brunswick (GA), and Savannah (GA) should CLOSELY monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane setup. Rapid intensification is not out of the question, and the intensity forecast of Dorian may have to be adjusted higher in future forecasts!

CENTER OF DORIAN MISSES PUERTO RICO TO THE EAST; INTENSIFICATION LIKELY… 2-3 days ago, there was some hope that the core of Dorian would be disrupted by the high, rugged terrain of Hispaniola. Yesterday, there was hope that Dorian would be somewhat disrupted by the hills and mountains of Puerto Rico. Today, it is clear that the center of Dorian has missed the land areas to the east and have an unhindered path to strengthening over the next 24-72 hours. Definitely not the scenario that anyone wanted. Land interaction will have very little to no effect on the developing storm.

WATCHES & WARNINGS DISCUSSION… A Hurricane Warning continues for all of the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, and Vieques & Culebra. Puerto Rico continues to be under a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning. Hurricane Watches will be needed for the Turks & Caicos islands and parts of The Bahamas later this evening or on Thursday. Hurricane Watches will become necessary for parts of the Atlantic coast of Florida probably on Friday or Saturday morning.

APP ALERTS… Many consistent updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. Everyone should toggle ON Medium-Level Alerts. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

NEXT UPDATE… Constant updates are being posted in the RedZone Weather app. My next video update will be posted by 7:15AM on Thursday. Let me know if you have any questions and I’ll try to answer them shortly. Have a great evening!