JUST IN FROM HURRICANE HUNTERS: DORIAN STRENGTHENING; WINDS UP TO 95MPH… New data coming in moments ago from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft team suggests that Hurricane Dorian is strengthening. Maximum winds are up to 95 mph per the latest recon dropsondes. Note that this won’t be reflected “officially” in an advisory until 10PM CDT. Dorian will likely continue to progressively strengthen over the next 3-4 days as it approaches the Florida Peninsula. The good news to report this evening is that impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida seem less likely to happen. That certainly is NOT set in stone, but it is what model trends have suggested all day. Please see the potential impacts discussion for more details about this (below). We could have extensive impacts in central/east Florida early next week as the core of Dorian approaches. Join me in this special live video update as we delve into the latest details…
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ASSESSMENT FOR SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA – THURSDAY EVENING… It has been a good day in the model world with nearly all weather models now pointing to Hurricane Dorian remaining to the east of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. While trends are working in our favor for now, we all know that can change very quickly. Most of the reliable, major weather models indicate Dorian will either approach the eastern/Atlantic coast of Florida and take a sharp, right, northerly turn OR make landfall somewhere along the eastern coast of Florida and THEN turn to the north. There are some outlier models that still bring Dorian completely across the Florida Peninsula into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but based on the trends today, it is prudent to call those models outliers for now. I am certainly not ready to give any type of “all clear” for our local area just yet, but I am encouraged by model trends nonetheless. We strongly encourage you to check back with us tomorrow and into the weekend.
MAJOR IMPACTS FOR FLORDA PENINSULA… The magnitude of specific impacts from Hurricane Dorian for the Florida Peninsula will depend largely on where the specific center of the system moves in the days ahead, right up until the point of potential landfall. In addition to 130+ mph winds in coastal areas, very heavy rain and flooding will be a major concern. This concern will be exacerbated if Dorian slows down or stalls over any given area in the Florida Peninsula. 10-15”+ of rain could happen in isolated spots, and those numbers may have to be adjusted higher over the next few days. Depending on the exact track of Dorian, tornadoes could also be a concern. Generally areas along and east of the center of the circulation of a hurricane have the worst and most frequent tornado issues. Storm surge and coastal flooding will also be major concerns.
EXTENSIVE DORIAN IMPACTS LIKELY IN PARTS OF FLORIDA PENINSULA… The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center says that Dorian will likely approach the Atlantic/eastern coast of Florida as a very dangerous category 4, major hurricane on Sunday into Monday. Interests in and near West Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie, Fort Pierce, Vero Beach, Palm Bay, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Titusville, Merritt Island, Orlando, New Smyrna Beach, Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, Palm Coast, St. Augustine, Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, Brunswick (GA), and Savannah (GA) should CLOSELY monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane setup. Rapid intensification is not out of the question, and the intensity forecast of Dorian may have to be adjusted higher in future forecasts! Don’t get so caught up in the category number (whether it’s a 3, 4, or 5) that you forget that potentially EXTREME impacts could happen in some of these areas!
LATEST NHC ADVISORY ON DORIAN… We currently are not getting the intermediate (every 3 hour) advisories on Dorian as there are no active tropical storm or hurricane watches/warnings. The latest official advisory is from 4PM, although the recon data is being parsed minute-by-minute as of 7:30PM. Hurricane Dorian has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph with higher gusts near the center of the storm. As of 4PM CDT Thursday evening, the center of Dorian was located at 22.5N and 67.7W. Minimum central pressure is down to 986 millibars, and the central pressure will likely continue to progressively fall as strengthening is set to continue. Dorian is moving northwest at 13 mph. Further strengthening is likely. Rapid intensification could happen over the next few days.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BAHAMAS SOON… Hurricane Watches may be needed for parts of The Bahamas later tonight or on Friday. A Hurricane Watch will become necessary for parts of the Atlantic coast of Florida probably on Friday evening or Saturday.
APP ALERTS… Many consistent updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. Everyone should toggle ON Medium-Level Alerts. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have many more updates posted this evening in the RedZone Weather app. My next video update will be posted by 7:15AM on Friday. Be sure to check back with me this weekend for the very latest on an increasingly dangerous Hurricane Dorian. Have a great evening!