DORIAN LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN; COULD BE CAT. 4 EARLY NEXT WEEK… The National Hurricane Center has revised the intensity forecast of Hurricane even higher today, suggesting that the system may be a dangerous category 4 hurricane at the time of a potential landfall along the Florida Peninsula early next week. Dorian continues to organize in a way that is supportive of potentially extreme impacts across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Also of note, the official forecast has slowed somewhat, indicating Dorian may significant slow its forward speed as it approaches Florida. This could allow for more intensification prior to landfall. We are certainly not “out of the woods” just yet in south Alabama or northwest Florida, but the model data over the last 6-12 hours has been encouraging. The latest run of the reliable ECMWF/Euro model is in, essentially showing Dorian significantly affecting the Florida Peninsula before racing northward. Most models show a sharp, right, northerly turn before, at, or shortly after landfall in the Florida Peninsula. If you missed the text discussion this morning, I’ve modified the paragraphs below slightly to add the latest updates.
THURSDAY EARLY EVENING ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL LOCAL (SOUTH AL & NW FL) IMPACTS FROM DORIAN… The trends early this evening are encouraging for Alabama and northwest Florida, with most weather models continuing to keep Dorian well to the east of our local area. Unfortunately, the data is not conclusive enough to be able to give anything close to an “all clear” just yet. IF model trends continue to show a sharp, right, northerly turn when or shortly after Dorian reaches Florida, we can begin to rule out local impacts from the system. We are NOT there yet! It is critical that we all remain diligent and closely monitor the progress of this hurricane as it continues to strengthen and move northwest. Impacts in the Florida Peninsula have the potential to be extensive. Beyond that, it’s impossible to know if or when other areas will have major impacts. We will get another run of the ECMWF/Euro model overnight with more runs of the GFS intermittently in the coming hours.
EXTREME HURRICANE IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN EAST FLORIDA… The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center says that Dorian will likely approach the Atlantic/eastern coast of Florida as a very dangerous category 4, major hurricane on Sunday into Monday. Interests in and near West Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie, Fort Pierce, Vero Beach, Palm Bay, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Titusville, Merritt Island, Orlando, New Smyrna Beach, Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, Palm Coast, St. Augustine, Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, Brunswick (GA), and Savannah (GA) should CLOSELY monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane setup. Rapid intensification is not out of the question, and the intensity forecast of Dorian may have to be adjusted higher in future forecasts! Don’t get so caught up in the category number (whether it’s a 3, 4, or 5) that you forget that potentially EXTREME impacts could happen in some of these areas!
4PM ADVISORY ON HURRICANE DORIAN… Hurricane Dorian has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph with higher gusts near the center of the storm. As of 4PM CDT Thursday evening, the center of Dorian was located at 22.5N and 67.7W. Minimum central pressure is down to 986 millibars, and the central pressure will likely continue to progressively fall as strengthening is set to continue. Dorian is moving northwest at 13 mph. Further strengthening is likely. Rapid intensification could happen over the next few days.
RESIDENTS OF PANAMA CITY TAKING NO CHANCES… I’ve had several images and reports from Panama City, FL showing long lines at area gas stations. Residents are obviously still recovering from the devastation of Hurricane Michael in October of last year. The good news is the latest model guidance continues to suggest Dorian will remain to the east of the Florida Panhandle.
WATCHES & WARNINGS DISCUSSION… Hurricane Watches may be needed for parts of The Bahamas later tonight or on Friday. A Hurricane Watch will become necessary for parts of the Atlantic coast of Florida probably on Friday evening or Saturday.
APP ALERTS… Many consistent updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. Everyone should toggle ON Medium-Level Alerts. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
I’ll have another detailed Hurricane Dorian video update later this evening. Let me know if you have specific questions or concerns.