INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AFTER SUNRISE… We’ll need to closely monitor radar trends after sunrise as severe weather parameters are expected to increase. We encourage everyone to have multiple ways to hear warnings later today as the severe weather risk ramps up. The parameter above is the projected helicity (veering of the wind with height in the atmosphere) at 7AM showing values increasing across parts of southeast Mississippi and west Alabama.
Quick midnight update… Isolated strong storms may briefly become possible around sunrise, although this isn't a guarantee.
Higher confidence in an advancing line of storms approaching in the late morning hours, crossing SW AL & NW FL through the early afternoon hours.
Be… pic.twitter.com/2VeK43DLAm
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) January 25, 2026
3km NAM at 5AM (left) vs. HRRR at 5AM (right)…
High uncertainty, but one or two rogue severe storms MAY become possible around sunrise briefly as a warm front moves northeast. pic.twitter.com/Vhaykn42Fa
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) January 25, 2026
The Storm Prediction Center, in their midnight update, maintains the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk for much of south Alabama and northwest Florida valid for Sunday.
Main window: 9AM to 6PM – just a bit earlier than previously suggested.
Be ready for possible warnings! pic.twitter.com/BAgPbiEroQ
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) January 25, 2026
Storms may get an earlier start than previously suggested. Some of the high-res guidance has the main batch of storms moving across south Alabama and northwest Florida in the late morning and early afternoon hours.
IF (big IF) this scenario happened as depicted here, storms… pic.twitter.com/cjbJsCcRgO
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) January 25, 2026
The severe weather risk will probably maximize on Sunday in areas along, south, and east of I-65.
Not a guarantee but that’s what we are trending toward. Better “ingredient overlap” for severe storms in Baldwin, Escambia (AL), Conecuh, Covington, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa,… https://t.co/4DRNM7bvZv
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) January 25, 2026
These want to be weather news pages keep posting GFS runs for next weekend, but ONLY the ones that show a snow event across the Gulf Coast. Are we just ignoring the model runs in between and ensembles? Let’s be real. Sure the chance is there but right now it’s negligible.
— Asa Schlobohm (@SchlobohmAsa) January 24, 2026
