HURRICANE ISAIAS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE; PROJECTED PATH SHIFTS EAST SLIGHTLY… Hurricane Isaias has maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, per the latest 10AM NHC advisory. The projected path has shifted slightly eastward due to the storm moving slightly more east than forecast over the last few hours. Landfall will almost certainly happen this evening or tonight in northwest Florida, perhaps near Navarre, Fort Walton Beach, Destin, or Santa Rosa Beach. Impacts will extend well beyond this landfall point. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect. RUSH PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION.
NORTHWEST FLORIDA LANDFALL TONIGHT… It’s now near certain that a northwest Florida landfall will happen instead of an Alabama landfall point. This is because the storm is now due south of Pensacola Beach as of 10AM. The landfall point will almost certainly be in Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, or Walton counties. Impacts will likely be most severe in these counties. Significant impacts also expected in parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, and Conecuh counties.
BETTER WEST SIDE FOR SOME LOCAL COMMUNITIES… This update will come as a relief to some across the region as MORE of our local communities will be on the better, western side of the storm. I would strongly encourage you to remain prepared and be ready to hunker down this evening. The wind field of the storm continues to expand, so even though the wind speeds may end up being less in some communities on the western side of the circulation, significant impacts will remain possible. STAY READY.
HURRICANE WARNING EXPANDED INLAND… A Hurricane Warning continues from Ocean Springs (MS) to the Bay/Gulf County Line (FL). This includes all parts of Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, and Bay counties along with Jackson County in Mississippi. Escambia County, Alabama is also involved. Late last night, Covington and Conecuh counties were added to the Hurricane Warning. Hurricane force winds are 74+ mph. Confidence is high in the potential for hurricane force wind gusts, particularly in areas NEAR and to the east of where the center of circulation of Isaias makes landfall.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING INLAND… A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for several counties across the region, including Washington (AL), Clarke, Wilcox, Monroe, Conecuh, Covington, Butler, Crenshaw, Coffee, Dale, Henry, Houston, Geneva, Walton (inland), Holmes, Washington (FL), Jackson (FL), Calhoun (FL), and Gulf (FL) counties. Sustained tropical storm force winds (39+ mph) are LIKELY in these counties. A Tropical Storm Warning also is in effect for Greene and George counties in southeast Mississippi.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FURTHER NORTH… Choctaw, Marengo, Dallas, Lowndes, Montgomery, Pike, Lee, Barbour, Macon counties and points north all the way up to Tuscaloosa and Jefferson counties are now under a Tropical Storm Watch. Tropical storm force winds will be possible all the way north to Birmingham and Tuscaloosa.
DAMAGING WIND EXPECTED… Regardless of what happens specifically with the center of the storm, I am expecting *significant impacts* across a large portion of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Hurricane force winds will be possible, including widespread wind damage. Wind gusts of 100+ mph will be possible in parts of southern Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties.
RAIN & FLOODING ISSUES… 3-5″ of rain likely across the entire region with the higher rain totals closer to the coast. Flash flooding could become a problem if storms train over the same areas. Flash flooding will be a worse problem if we get a lot of rain during the daytime hours today ahead of the storm. This is a possibility.
STORM SURGE LIKELY… Storm surge will be a problem for areas near the center of the storm AND in areas to the east of the center. This means northwest Florida and the Florida Panhandle have a high probability of potentially significant 5-8 foot storm surge with higher surge values possible.
UPDATED TORNADO THREAT… While the tornado threat is NOT zero locally by any stretch, new indications point to the tornado threat setting up a bit to the east of our local area (south Alabama and northwest Florida). The tornado risk may end up higher in the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. We still may have a few tornadoes locally, but the threat seems higher a bit further to the east.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and YouTube Live. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington (AL), Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have more updates posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app.
Please stay safe during the hurricane!
