NICE FRIDAY; RAIN & STORMS LIKELY AT TIMES SATURDAY P.M. INTO SUNDAY… Scattered rain and thunderstorms are set to make a comeback to our local weather pattern this weekend after several weeks of dry weather following Hurricane Isaias. Dry weather is expected across south Alabama and northwest Florida today ahead of increasing rain chances Saturday P.M. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon. Showers and a few thunderstorms become possible Saturday afternoon, with rain more likely Saturday night into Sunday morning. While a few storms may be part of the weekend forecast, the potential for organized severe weather remains quite low, thankfully.
WARM TEMPS; INCREASING CLOUDINESS TODAY… Clouds will increase in coverage today as moisture gradually returns to the region. Even with the increasing moisture, rain chances remain quite low today and tonight. Afternoon highs will be in the 79-84° range, followed by overnight lows ranging from the upper 50s to low 70s across the region. No widespread rain-related issues are expected for outdoor plans this evening.
SCATTERED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY, MOSTLY IN P.M. HOURS… Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will become possible tomorrow, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Southeasterly winds will bring more Gulf moisture to the local area ahead of an approaching upper-level disturbance. Rain chances during the day will generally be around 30-40%, meaning plenty of communities will have dry stretches before rain becomes more likely Saturday night. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday.
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS REMAIN LOW THIS WEEKEND… The setup this weekend does not look particularly favorable for organized severe storms this weekend. Instability will be modest, and winds aloft are not expected to provide much support for storm organization. The Storm Prediction Center does not currently include our local area in a formal severe weather risk for Saturday. That does not mean we won’t have thunderstorms, but rain is the more likely concern rather than widespread severe weather.
RAIN & STORMS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING… The highest rain chances with this system will happen Saturday night into Sunday morning as deeper moisture and the upper-level disturbance move across the region. Rain chances rise to a 50-70% chance Saturday night, with showers and embedded thunderstorms possible at times. This does not mean continuous rain throughout the night, but rain will become more widespread than during the daytime hours Saturday. The fairly quick passage of the system should limit widespread flooding concerns, although localized water issues in poor-drainage spots remain possible. Rain totals of 1-2″ are likely in most spots across the region with isolated higher amounts being possible.
LOWER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY P.M. INTO MONDAY… Rain coverage is expected to decrease Sunday afternoon as the disturbance moves away, but some spotty showers may linger into Sunday evening. I would leave some room for rain in afternoon plans rather than assume everything will be dry by noon. Clouds and rain will hold high temperatures on Sunday in the 70s. Rain chances drop considerably Sunday night, and Monday looks mainly dry with afternoon highs in the mid 70s to near 80°.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS MIDWEEK… After the lower rain chances Monday, another upper-level low will approach the Southeast and bring increasing chances of showers late Tuesday into Wednesday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible. The path and speed of this system remain uncertain, so the timing will need to be refined. For now, Wednesday looks wetter than Tuesday, with rain chances around 50-60%. High temperatures will generally be in the mid 70s to low 80s Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by low to mid 70s Thursday as rain chances ease.
TROPICS: ATLANTIC BASIN QUIET… No tropical development is expected over the next 7 days in the Gulf, Caribbean Sea, or Atlantic Ocean. The Atlantic Hurricane Season continues through November 30.
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See all the details in your Friday RedZone Weather forecast video. My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM Monday morning. I will have updates posted throughout the weekend, as needed, in the RedZone Weather app.
Have a nice weekend!
