No significant changes in the 10PM EST projected path for Potential Tropical Cyclone 18.
PTC18 will likely be a hurricane by Wednesday morning, crossing into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon.
Impacts expected in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba. pic.twitter.com/OTSKnXQT9N
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) November 4, 2024
Tornado-warned storms are happening this evening in parts of southeastern Oklahoma. Tornado Warning in effect for Durant, OK as of 7:37PM. pic.twitter.com/C53EsmjiXx
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) November 4, 2024
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 FORMS IN CARIBBEAN; WILL MOVE INTO GULF MIDWEEK… Advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone 18, located in the southern Caribbean Sea, ahead of its movement toward the Gulf of Mexico midweek. Confidence in the track forecast is high in the short term (today, tonight, tomorrow, and into Tuesday) meaning direct impacts from the system are likely in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and parts of Cuba. Confidence is lower than normal, however, in the track guidance later this week. PTC18 is expected to become a named tropical storm tonight or tomorrow, meaning it will take the name, “Rafael.” Subtropical Storm Patty formed over the weekend near the Azores in the northeastern Atlantic.
LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – ALABAMA & N.W. FLORIDA… Direct local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida may happen Thursday, Friday, or into the upcoming weekend, depending on the exact future track of this developing storm. The most likely scenario is for our area to have increased chances of rain Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, into Saturday as the system flings in deep tropical moisture from the south. Any rainfall locally is a major benefit at this point as ongoing drought conditions continue to worsen. The current guidance shows the inner core of the system decaying once it reaches the central or northern Gulf of Mexico due to a high amount of atmospheric shear. This shear will likely keep the system in check so that intensification into a major hurricane does not happen. That isn’t a guarantee, but it is a likelihood at this point. In addition to increased rain chances, there will be a high risk of rip currents at all local beaches this week. Other impacts like high winds and tornadoes are much less certain at this point. There are many scenarios on the table that would keep those threats minimized, but we can’t say that for sure just yet. Please check back in for updates over the next few days.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR CAYMAN ISLANDS; TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA… The confusing “potential tropical cyclone” designation is basically in place for situations like what we have now. The system in the southern Caribbean Sea does not yet have convection organized enough for the system to be classified as a tropical depression or tropical storm. The PTC designation allows the National Hurricane Center to issue needed watches and warnings ahead of the storm actually forming. In this case, a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for all of Jamaica. In addition, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane Watch will likely be needed for northwestern Cuba tomorrow.
APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!
I will have a detailed look at PTC18 in the next regularly scheduled RedZone Weather forecast video that will be posted by 7:15AM.
Have a good Sunday evening!
FEW SHOWERS IN MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES… Isolated showers continue to drift northwest this evening. Most locales across south Alabama and northwest Florida remain dry, but there are a few spots getting beneficial rain this evening. A few showers are also noted in Santa Rosa County near Munson as of 4:08PM.
Isolated showers will continue to be possible into Monday.
First projected path for Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 shows the storm moving into the Gulf of Mexico midweek.
Tropical Storm Warning up for Jamaica. Hurricane Watch in effect for Cayman Islands.
Track guidance is lower confidence than normal in 4-5 days. pic.twitter.com/sTLrQbTv9u
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) November 3, 2024
