Overview: Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday evening into the early morning hours of Monday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. These storms will have the potential to produce tornadoes (some potentially being strong and/or long track), damaging winds, flash flooding, and large hail.

Threat Levels & Locations: Level 4 (out of 5) risk, meaning widespread severe storms will be likely inland. Level 3 (out of 5) risk farther south and closer to the coast.

When: 3PM Sunday to 3AM Monday will be the 12 hour window when storms will be most likely to happen. 7PM Sunday evening to 1AM Monday will be the core risk time for south Alabama and northwest Florida.

Sunday Evening Risks: Tornadoes (some strong and/or long track), damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding.

As always, please let me know if you have any questions or have specific decision support needs. Below is the public, long form post that will debut with our live video this evening. Thank you!

STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT; LEVEL 4 RISK… Unfortunately, the severe weather risk for Sunday evening (April 19) continues to increase. Much of our inland zones are now involved in a rare Level 4 (out of 5) severe weather risk. The overall risk of tornadoes, including potentially a few strong tornadoes, has increased. In addition to tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, large hail, and flash flooding will all be concerns on Sunday evening into early Monday. 3PM Sunday to 3AM Monday will be the 12 hour window when storms will be most likely to happen. 6PM to 11PM Sunday will be the core risk time for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Please have a way to receive urgent weather warnings over the next 36 hours! This has the makings of yet another potentially potent round of severe weather. See all the details in the discussion below.

MAIN HAZARDS SUNDAY P.M. ARE TORNADOES & HIGH WIND… Strong tornadoes will become possible across parts of the Deep South, including across our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida, on Sunday into Sunday night in what will likely be a significant severe weather outbreak. There is at least some chance that long track tornadoes may also be possible. Damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding will also be possible. I am concerned the overall risk of flash flooding will be a bit more significant with this event compared to the Easter Sunday severe weather event. 1 to 3 inches of rainfall in total are expected across our area with the greater rain amounts likely happening inland.

CURRENT RISK LEVELS… The overall risk of severe weather is greatest across inland areas locally. Level 4 (out of 5) risk for some or all parts of Conecuh, Monroe, Butler, northern Covington, Crenshaw, Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Wilcox, Choctaw, and Marengo counties locally. Level 3 risk in place for Escambia (AL), southern Covington, Baldwin, Mobile, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties. Note that regardless of the risk level or color, this is a substantial severe weather risk across the entire region. It does not matter one bit if you’re in a yellow zone, orange zone, or red zone, you have a risk of potent severe weather on Sunday evening into early Monday!

WHO IS INVOLVED IN TORNADO RISK?… ALL of south Alabama and ALL of northwest Florida are involved in this severe weather risk zone. The greatest risk of very dangerous, long track tornadoes will happen over inland areas of south Alabama locally. The atmosphere will be quite volatile and very unstable across the entire region, thus we cannot rule out the possibility of multiple strong tornadoes locally. Again, *please* don’t get caught up in a risk color/number. This is a significant threat across the entire region.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – P.M. SUNDAY INTO A.M. MONDAY… This IS valid for Sunday, April 19 through early Monday, April 20. I’m saying that because the timing of this is just about spot on to what happened last week on Easter Sunday. 3PM Sunday to 3AM Monday will be the 12 hour window when storms will be most likely to happen. 6PM to 11PM Sunday will be the core risk time for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Storms could move into west Alabama as early as 3PM. More likely though, storms will move in around 5 or 6PM in the evening and progressively move across the region from west to east.

FEW SHOWERS & STORMS SUNDAY MORNING… Sunday morning will be similar to what happened today with a chance of showers and thunderstorms locally. I expect most of these showers and storms across our local area on Sunday morning to be pretty tame with little to no issues in the way of severe weather locally. There likely will be a cluster of heavy rain and thunderstorms to our north ongoing early (3AM to 9AM) Sunday morning. This area of storms will move west to east across the central part of Alabama, bringing with it a chance of strong storms there. Note this area of storms is different than the one that will move across our area later in the day.

LEVEL 4 (OUT OF 5) RISK INLAND… Much of the inland areas of south Alabama are now involved in a Level 4 (out of 5) significant severe weather risk zones valid for Sunday evening into the overnight hours of early Monday morning. Not all higher end risk zones are created equally. This Level 4 risk is driven exclusively by a risk of significant/strong tornadoes that has increased for Sunday evening. Note that strong tornadoes CAN happen outside of the higher risk zone, and this is simply a general idea of where the stronger tornadoes are MORE likely to happen. This Level 4 risk zone includes: Evergreen, Castleberry, Huxford, Repton, Range, Lyeffion, Owassa, Bowles, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Chapman, Forest Home, Red Level, Luverne, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Whatley, Gainestown, Chatom, Vinegar Bend, Deer Park, Wagerville, McIntosh, Millry, Butler, Silas, Toxey, Gilbertown, Mt. Sterling, Pine Hill, Oak Hill, Camden, Millers Ferry. This Level 4 risk zone also includes areas just to our north across the central part of Alabama, including Montgomery, Selma, Demopolis, Hayneville, Linden, Sweet Water, Livingston, York, Eutaw, Marion, Greensboro, Centreville, Brent, Clanton, Prattville, Autaugaville, Maplesville, Wetumpka, and surrounding areas. Much of central and southern Mississippi is also included in this zone.

LEVEL 3 RISK… Much of us across northwest Florida and other areas across Alabama are involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) risk for Sunday into early Monday. Again let me stress that strong tornadoes CAN happen outside of the higher Level 4 risk zone. This Level 3 risk is still a big deal. This Level 3 (out of 5) risk includes: Mobile, Wilmer, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Bay Minette, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Loxley, Stapleton, Stockton, Silverhill, Robertsdale, Summerdale, Atmore, Poarch, Flomaton, Brewton, East Brewton, Pollard, Riverview, Dixonville, Damascus, Brooklyn, Andalusia, Opp, Sanford, Florala, Onycha, Century, Bratt, Molino, Jay, Chumuckla, Milton, Ensley, Gonzalez, Munson, Harold, Holt, Crestview, Baker, Laurel Hill, Elba, Enterprise, Troy, Dothan, Geneva, Daleville, Abbeville, Eufaula, Union Springs, Tuskegee, Auburn, Opelika, Alexander City, Talladega, Roanoke, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Hoover, Calera, and surrounding areas.

LEVEL 2 RISK AT IMMEDIATE COAST… Very similar to the severe weather risk last weekend, the communities at the immediate beach zones in coastal Alabama and northwest Florida have a slightly lower risk of severe weather overall. There still could be strong to severe storms with tornadoes involved, but the risk is certainly higher farther inland. This Level 2 risk zone includes: Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Fort Morgan, Foley, Bon Secour, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Pensacola, Warrington, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Navarre, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Mary Esther, Niceville, Seaside, Santa Rosa Beach, extending southeast to Panama City, Mexico Beach, Port St. Joe, Apalachicola, and surrounding areas.

HAVE THOSE HELMETS READY… Tornado helmets or makeshift helmets are absolutely critical in a severe weather event like this. NOW is the time to make a severe weather plan. More info here.

BE THE HERO & SHARE INFO… The National Weather Service has launched an awareness campaign entitled, “Be The Hero.” The truth is you can absolutely be a hero and inform those folks around you that pay no attention to the world of weather. I guarantee you (sadly) there are folks all around that have heard NOTHING about this significant severe weather threat setting up for tomorrow. The way we combat that is to “be the hero” and let your friends and family know about this risk. Call them, text them, tag them, pass it along to them, I really don’t care HOW you tell your folks as long as we make as many folks aware of this risk as possible.

WIND ADVISORY LOCALLY… All local areas are now involved in a Wind Advisory due to strong pressure-gradient winds expected out ahead of the severe storms on Sunday. This Wind Advisory means winds of 15-25 mph are expected with gusts as high as 30-35 mph. Sunday will be a breezy, windy day just like last Sunday!

FLASH FLOOD WATCH INLAND… Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Butler, Wilcox, and Crenshaw counties (in addition to many counties across central Alabama) are under a Flash Flood Watch on Sunday into Sunday night due to the heightened potential for flash flooding in these areas.

WARM TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY… We briefly get a break from the rain and storms on Monday and Tuesday ahead of more showers becoming possible late Wednesday ahead of another severe weather risk setting up for Thursday. High temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be in the mid-80s with morning lows in the upper-50s.

ANOTHER POTENT ROUND OF STORMS ON THURSDAY… There continues to be growing concern about yet another upcoming severe weather risk setting up for Thursday, April 23. That is five days out from today. Early weather model guidance points to the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across the Deep South with a potential tornado risk involved. Let’s get through the event on Sunday evening and then we will start focusing our attention on Thursday. Note that it is not at all uncommon to have concurrent severe weather events “regularly” this time of year as we are going through the core of our primary severe weather season. Odds are we will have a warmer and quieter pattern as we get into the month of May.

TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!

SET UP YOUR APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

NEXT UPDATE… I will have the latest information posted by 7AM on Facebook, Twitter, and in the RedZone Weather app. Please join me for that on Sunday morning. Before we get there, we’ll have plenty of brief updates overnight in the RedZone Weather app.

Have a nice Saturday evening!

RZW EXEC: STORMS SATURDAY MORNING; SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY EVENING… RZW Exec partners, good Friday evening! Multiple rounds of storms are ahead. Storms on Saturday morning will be noisy at times but generally under severe limits. The concern is now on Sunday evening into early Monday when we have another potentially more potent round of severe weather. Tornadoes, damaging winds, hail, and flash flooding will all become possible. It appears damaging straight line winds will be the main concern, although parameters have ever so slightly increased to favor more tornadoes on Sunday evening as well.

Overview: Thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday morning, some of which may briefly be on the strong side. Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday evening into the early morning hours of Monday across south Alabama and northwest Florida.

Threat Levels: For Saturday: Level 1 (out of 5) risk, meaning only isolated instances of severe storms will be possible. For Sunday into Early Monday: Level 3 (out of 5) risk, meaning scattered to numerous severe storms will be possible.

Where: For Saturday: The entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida is now under a Level 1 (out of 5) marginal, low-end risk. For Sunday, the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida remains under a Level 3 risk.

When: For Saturday: 3AM to 9AM is when the low-end risk of strong storms will happen. For Sunday: 4PM Sunday to 4AM Monday will be the 12 hour window when storms will be most likely to happen. 7PM Sunday evening to 1AM Monday will be the core risk time for south Alabama and northwest Florida.

Saturday Morning Risks: Gusty winds, heavy rain, some thunder and lightning.

Sunday Evening Risks: Damaging winds, tornadoes, hail, flash flooding, lightning.

As always, please let me know if you have any questions or have specific decision support needs. Below is the public, long form post that will debut with our live video this evening. Thank you! 

DAMAGING WINDS & TORNADOES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT… The Storm Prediction Center continues to include all of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone valid for Sunday into early Monday. This means that scattered to numerous severe storms will be possible. This includes the risk of a few tornadoes, potentially numerous reports of wind damage (trees down), large hail, and flash flooding. All modes of severe weather will be possible. This will likely be a situation where multiple waves of strong to severe storms move across our region, with the main concern happening Sunday evening into the very early part of Monday. There also could be a few storms around on Saturday morning, but MOST of those storms should be well below severe limits. That is your severe weather summary, below you will find all the details.

SATURDAY MORNING STORMS… There could be a few showers and thunderstorms that move across our region later this evening into Saturday morning. There is a LOW-end chance some of these storms may briefly ramp up and become strong as they move across the region, with the main concern being gusty winds. The atmosphere is not exactly primed for tornadoes tonight or on Saturday morning, but this is April in the Deep South, meaning we need to watch these storms carefully. The expression concerning thunderstorms locally, especially this time of year is: Expect the unexpected. I will monitor radar trends overnight and bring you the latest info in the RedZone Weather app, as needed. Note these Saturday morning storms are totally separate from the “main event” severe weather expected late Sunday into early Monday.

THREAT SUMMARY AS OF FRIDAY EVENING… The primary concerns with this weather system will be tornadoes and damaging winds on Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Large hail and flash flooding will also be a concern. Unlike the last round of severe weather last Sunday (on Easter), total rain amounts with this system locally will be in the 1 to 3 inch range across our region. This could cause more flash flooding issues if storms train over the same areas.

CURRENT RISK: LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5)… All parts of all of our local counties in south Alabama and northwest Florida remain involved in the Storm Prediction Center’s Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone. This means that scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms will be possible. Further outlook revisions are expected over the next 36 hours as this severe weather potential approaches.

LOCATIONS INVOLVED… ALL of south Alabama and ALL of northwest Florida are involved in this risk zone. The greatest risk of tornadoes will happen over inland areas of south Alabama, locally. The atmosphere will be volatile and unstable across the entire region, thus we cannot rule out the possibility of multiple tornadoes locally. While we cannot completely rule out the risk of a significant tornado, at this point, it seems like damaging winds and brief tornadoes are the more likely scenario. As I always caution, though, if a tornado (big or small) affects YOU, it’s a big deal.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – SUNDAY P.M. INTO A.M. MONDAY… I realize the timing of this system is quite reminiscent of the timing of the last severe weather risk last week. 4PM Sunday to 4AM Monday will be the 12 hour window when storms will be most likely to happen. 7PM Sunday evening to 1AM Monday will be the core risk time for south Alabama and northwest Florida.

BE READY… Tornado helmets or makeshift helmets are absolutely critical in all severe weather events. NOW is the time to make a severe weather plan. More info here.

BE THE HERO… The National Weather Service has launched an awareness campaign entitled, “Be The Hero.” The truth is you can absolutely be a hero and inform those folks around you that pay no attention to the world of weather. I guarantee you (sadly) there are folks all around that have heard nothing about this severe weather threat setting up for Sunday. The way we combat that is to “be the hero” and let your friends and family know about this risk. Call them, text them, tag them, pass it along to them, I really don’t care HOW you tell your folks as long as we make as many folks aware of this risk as possible.

TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!

APP ALERTS… Now is the time, many hours before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

NEXT UPDATE… I will have the latest information posted by 7AM on Facebook, Twitter, and in the RedZone Weather app. Please join me for that on Saturday morning. See you then!

Have a nice evening!

RZW EXEC: SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SUNDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Friday afternoon! Strong tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible on Easter Sunday, April 12. Model guidance continues to “firm up” on this idea this afternoon. You should have received an email detailing all of this earlier this morning around 3AM. If you did not receive this email, please reach out to me ASAP so I can add your email to our list. Again, no major changes to pass along this afternoon. Tornadoes could be strong and long-tracked on Sunday.

Overview: Strong tornadoes are likely across parts of the Deep South, including across our local area, on Sunday in what will likely be a significant severe weather outbreak. Damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding will also be possible.

Threat Level: Level 4 (out of 5) risk for Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Marengo, and Wilcox counties in west Alabama. Level 3 (out of 5) risk for all other counties in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Note that regardless of the risk level or color, this is a substantial severe weather risk across the entire region.

Where: ALL of south Alabama and ALL of northwest Florida are involved in this risk zone. The greatest risk of very dangerous, long-track tornadoes will happen over west Alabama locally.

When: 2PM Sunday to 2AM Monday will be the 12 hour window when storms will be most likely to happen. 3PM to 8PM will be the core risk time for south Alabama and northwest Florida.

Risks: Multiple strong, potentially long-track, tornadoes are the main concern. All modes of severe weather, including damaging winds, hail, and flash flooding will be possible.

We will get a new convective outlook valid for Sunday probably around 2:45AM on Saturday. I’ll have the latest information for you in an email at that point. The following information from this morning remains on target with no changes needed. This is presented below for review.

RARE LEVEL 4 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SUNDAY; STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE… The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded parts of southwest Alabama into a rare Level 4 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Easter Sunday. While it is uncommon to have a Level 4 risk on the day of the severe weather potential, it is quite rare to have a risk this high in the outlook valid 3 days from now. This should underscore the potentially dangerous severe weather setup that is coming into focus for Sunday. Long-time viewers and readers know that I intentionally refrain from using hyperbole and hype in our products. Words like “dangerous” and “rare” are warranted in this situation as models have trended toward a setup that will favor the development of potentially long-track, strong tornadoes. There is no need to panic, but there is an urgent need today and Saturday to make sure you have your severe weather safety plan in place and ready to take action on Sunday when the weather will likely be active. Below are all the details you need to be aware of this morning.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS SATURDAY… Cloud coverage will increase on Saturday ahead of a few showers becoming possible in the afternoon and evening hours. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper-70s. Most of the rain will hold off until after 5PM.

LEVEL 4 RISK FOR BIG CHUNK OF ALABAMA… Locally, if you are in parts of Clarke, Washington, Wilcox, Marengo, or Choctaw counties, you are now involved in this very significant Level 4 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone. These are the communities in our local area that have the greatest risk on Sunday of experiencing severe weather, specifically strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds: Thomasville, Coffeeville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Leroy, Chatom, Millry, Yarbo, St. Stephens, Gilbertown, Toxey, Silas, Butler, Pennington, Mt. Sterling, Sweet Water, Aimwell, Dixons Mills, Linden, Pine Hill, Camden, and Millers Ferry. We note that a large swath of Alabama north of us is also included in this higher risk zone: Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Jasper, Livingston, York, Demopolis, Eutaw, Marion, Centreville, Selma, Clanton, Hoover, Montevallo, Leeds, Cullman, Double Springs, Hamilton, Russellville, Aliceville, and surrounding areas.

LEVEL 3 RISK FOR MUCH OF ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… Let me be abundantly clear in that a Level 3 risk is still a big deal. The *entirety* of the rest of Alabama (minus the areas in the higher risk detailed above) and all of northwest Florida is involved in the Level 3 risk zone. Locally, this includes Mobile, Pensacola, Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Evergreen, Castleberry, Repton, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Excel, Mexia, McIntosh, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Saraland, Satsuma, Prichard, Theodore, Dauphin Island, Bayou La Batre, Wilmer, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Foley, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Loxley, Silverhill, Robertsdale, Century, Bratt, Molino, Walnut Hill, Warrington, Myrtle Grove, Milton, Pace, Jay, Chumuckla, Navarre, Munson, Harold, Holt, Crestview, Baker, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Laurel Hill, and surrounding areas. This Level 3 enhanced risk also includes other places in Alabama extending into the Florida Panhandle region: Montgomery, Auburn, Troy, Luverne, Geneva, Tuskegee, Wetumpka, Prattville, Dothan, Enterprise, Abbeville, Geneva, Elba, Daleville, Eufaula, Alexander City, Valley, Roanoke, Gadsden, Huntsville, Decatur, and Florence.

SHOWERS & STORMS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNDAY SUNRISE… Isolated showers with a few thunderstorms will be possible Saturday night into the early part of Sunday across south Alabama and northwest Florida Some model guidance has suggested parts of central Alabama could have a few strong storms EARLY Sunday (separate than the “main event” aka more potent round of severe storms later in the day). For now, clearly the greatest danger of severe storms and tornadoes locally will happen late in the day on Sunday, but this potential first round of storms is something we will need to keep an eye on in the guidance as Sunday morning approaches. We’ll be monitoring a warm front that moves across our area either late Saturday or early Sunday that will put our area in a very unstable, moist, warm airmass that will act as a prime environment for storms Sunday evening.

BREAK IN THE ACTION – SUNDAY MORNING… There is a high chance we will get a break in the rain and a break in the storms on Easter Sunday morning. Most model guidance points to this break continuing into the early afternoon hours as well. This is potentially good for any Easter morning services happening online or perhaps in a drive-in church situation if this situation verifies, but it is bad in the sense that we could have quite a bit of sunshine involved that would really ramp up the instability levels in the atmosphere to support intense storms late in the day. Temperatures will surge well into the 80s on Sunday afternoon as the air increasingly becomes buoyant and unstable.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – SUNDAY… 2PM on Sunday to 2AM on Monday is the 12 hour window when severe weather will be most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The greatest impacts to happen from 3PM to 8PM. Please have a way to receive urgent weather warnings before you go to sleep Saturday night just in case warnings are required earlier than anticipated.

SEVERE STORMS LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING… Let me be clear that this will likely be the most potent round of severe weather we have had in 2019 or 2020 so far. I certainly don’t like getting into the business of trying to compare a severe weather potential with past events as all severe weather setups are unique and different. This setup has the makings of a “red-letter day,” meaning a day we will remember because of the high degree of impact in terms of severe weather. Obviously we do not know for sure whether this event will pan out as indicated, but I can tell you: If it does, this will be a significant round of severe weather with multiple, potentially strong or intense, tornadoes being possible. We will need to take ALL warnings (both tornado warnings AND severe thunderstorm warnings) seriously and heed the warnings quickly.

STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE… Supercell thunderstorms that become discrete and isolated on Sunday evening will have plenty of fuel (instability), plenty of moisture (high dewpoints), plenty of shear, and plenty of helicity (veering of the winds as you go higher in the atmosphere) that will allow for the development of potentially significant and strong tornadoes. While there is uncertainty as to if supercells will become likely locally, there is currently a strong possibility of this happening. ALL tornadoes, big and small, are serious. Strong tornadoes tend to stay on the ground longer than their “weaker” counterparts, however.

DAMAGING WIND ALSO POSSIBLE… In addition to the pronounced tornado threat, I also am concerned about damaging “straight line” winds. It is too early to see the small-scale features on the higher-resolution models just yet, but I suspect the overall setup will feature discrete storms out ahead of a squall line that will move through to bring the severe weather threat to a close late Sunday evening or perhaps very early in the morning hours of Monday. Damaging wind would be the main concern in this squall line.

LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE… Discrete storms tend to also be large hail producers. If we get a group of supercell thunderstorms moving across our area, don’t be surprised to see large hail (perhaps as large as half dollars or golf balls) being a major concern in addition to the tornado risk.

HAVE YOUR TORNADO HELMET READY… It cannot be stressed enough that everyone (both children AND adults) needs some type of head protection, whether that is a helmet or a makeshift helmet like a cooking pot. Emerging research continues to show that wearing a helmet during a tornado that strikes your location greatly increases your chance of survival. Why? Because majority of fatal injuries that happen due to tornadoes happen because of blunt force trauma to the head/skull region. Thus, if we can mitigate this hazard in any way, we should. That’s where helmets and cooking pots come into the equation. Anything is better than nothing in this case. This means if you can grab a football, baseball, softball, bicycle, motorcycle, ballistics, or welding helmet and put it on, it will highly likely help you survive a tornado impact. Note this helmet deal isn’t just for children. It applies to everyone, no matter if you’re 8, 28, or 88 years old. Everyone needs a severe weather helmet. I cannot recommend them to you enough! See the full tornado preparedness post from last night here.

COVID-19 AND TORNADO WARNING GUIDELINES… We are in a weird time when the guidelines on what to do during a tornado warning versus what to do regarding social distancing because of COVID-19 may seem to conflict. If you, your family, or your friends use a community underground storm shelter, please take the opportunity to read the recommended guidelines established by our local National Weather Service offices and the state health department. Basically, the tornado warning takes precedence over social distancing when/if necessary as the tornado is the more immediate threat. Here is the post outlining those details.

TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!

SUNNY & WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY… Once the storms clear out early Monday morning, much better weather is ahead for the daytime hours of Monday into Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s with plenty of sunshine each day.

CARDS FOR THE ELDERLY… Please don’t forget to take advantage of our new RedZone Weather Cards for the Elderly program. We want to be able to safely send as many encouraging cards as possible to our local senior adults in nursing homes. Be sure to visit the link below for all the information. This is an opportunity for students and adults across our region to write encouraging notes to elderly people currently under lockdown in local nursing homes due to the ongoing COVID-19 situation. Here is the link.

APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have updates throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. My next detailed update will be available later today. Have a great Friday!

RZW EXEC: SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SUNDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Wednesday evening! I hope all of you remain healthy and well. While we have multiple rounds of active weather likely over the next few days, I am growing increasingly concerned about the severe weather risk setting up for Easter Sunday, April 12. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has already highlighted all of our local area and much of the Deep South in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone for Sunday. Keep in mind that a risk level that far out indicates a high confidence that severe weather will happen. It does not necessarily indicate intensity of storms, but there is now a high confidence that we will have severe weather issues on Sunday. SPC indicates that further outlook upgrades are expected, although it is too early to project what specific areas will contend with the greater issues. The big takeaway is that we want everyone to be aware of a potentially significant severe weather setup for Sunday.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH – RIGHT NOW… The overall severe weather risk for today has increased slightly since this morning. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect for Monroe, Clarke, Conecuh, and Butler counties locally. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the concerns today with the overall tornado risk being very, very low.

Overview: Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Deep South on Sunday. The chance of tornadoes and damaging winds continues to increase. There is a chance that this could be a significant severe weather outbreak, although more data is needed to increase confidence in that idea.

Threat Level: Level 2 (out of 5) risk for now, meaning scattered instances of severe storms will be possible. Further outlook upgrades are possible over the next few days.

Where: ALL of south Alabama and ALL of northwest Florida are involved in this risk zone. We note much of central Alabama is also involved.

When: It is a bit too early to be specific, but the general consensus points to the severe weather risk being greatest from Saturday evening to midday Sunday. We will be able to get more specific in the days ahead.

Risks: All modes of severe weather, including tornadoes, damaging winds, hail, and flash flooding will be possible.

I will begin publishing this information publicly in the next few hours. As always, please let me know if you have any questions or have specific decision support needs. Thank you!

Below is the public, long form post that will debut this evening.

SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND… The Storm Prediction Center has posted an uncommon risk zone 4-5 days out from now valid for Easter Sunday, April 12, 2020 when severe weather, including tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, large hail, and flash flooding will be possible. It is too early to know anything highly detailed about specific hazard placement and timing, although tornadoes and damaging winds seem increasingly likely based on increasing convergent model agreement. Outlook upgrades and changes are expected in the days ahead. Be sure to check back with me over the next few days as this threat continues to evolve. There is a chance this could be a significant round of severe weather.

DEEP TROUGH & WARM SECTOR LIKELY… You may be wondering how and why the Storm Prediction Center posts an outlook like this so far out. SPC uses multiple weather models and simulations to help better understand the possibilities of what could happen across the continental United States for any given day. Model guidance has been consistent enough to warrant an “early red flag,” suggesting there is a growing potential for the outlooked areas to have severe weather. A trough in the jet stream will dip down across the Great Plains and ultimately move eastward. Combine that with the warm, unstable air that will likely be in place across our region on Sunday, and you get a recipe of ingredients coming together that could produce weather hazards, including tornadoes.

TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!

APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Have a nice evening!

RZW EXEC: FEW STORMS TUESDAY; MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT SUNDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Tuesday evening! The Storm Prediction Center has added a low-end severe weather risk zone valid for Tuesday, April 7 (tomorrow) for much of our local area. The concern on Tuesday will be storms that ramp up and produce potentially gusty winds and hail. The tornado risk remains very low. I am growing more concerned about the potential for a severe weather risk on Sunday, however. Please check back with me later this week for the very latest.

Overview: A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, most likely in the daytime hours, across south Alabama and northwest Florida.

Threat Level: Level 1 (out of 5) risk, meaning only isolated instances of severe storms will be possible.

Where: Inland areas of south Alabama are involved in the Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone, including all parts of Covington, Escambia (AL), Butler, Crenshaw, Conecuh, Monroe, Clarke, and Washington counties. Parts of our local coastal counties are involved in the lower-end Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk as well. This includes Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Mobile, and Baldwin counties.

When: 1PM to 10PM Tuesday, April 7. The core risk will be from 4PM to 8PM.

Risks: This is a low-end risk. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph in the stronger storms. Large hail will also be possible in the stronger storms. The overall tornado risk remains very low.

I will begin publishing this information publicly in the next few hours. As always, please let me know if you have any questions or have specific decision support needs. Thank you!

Below is the public, long form post that will debut this evening.

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY; LEVEL 1 RISK INTRODUCED… The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone valid for Tuesday (tomorrow). There is a chance that some of the thunderstorms that flare up on Tuesday could be on the strong side, with gusty winds and hail being the main concerns. The overall risk for a tornado for any given spot is VERY, very low on Tuesday if not zero in most spots. For vast majority of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida, this will be a situation where we have rain around at times. Thunderstorms that develop will potentially produce gusty winds and cloud-to-ground lightning. We are entering a few days of unsettled weather with rain chances being elevated each day. I am also growing concerned for perhaps a far more potent round of severe thunderstorms setting up for the Sunday timeframe (Easter). There is a growing chance that could be a significant round of severe storms. Let’s look at your Monday evening forecast details…

LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) RISK LOCALLY… Nearly all areas north of Interstate 10 in our local area are included in this low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk. This means that basically all areas outside of the immediate coastal areas are included. Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Citronelle, Chatom, Leroy, Wagerville, Jackson, Grove Hill, Thomasville, Coffeeville, Whatley, Monroeville, Perdue Hill, Beatrice, Tunnel Springs, Frisco City, Excel, Uriah, Atmore, Huxford, Flomaton, Brewton, East Brewton, Evergreen, Castleberry, Repton, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Chapman, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Gantt, Straughn, Pleasant Home, Century, Walnut Hill, Molino, Bay Minette, Stockton, Perdido, Niceville, Crestview, and Baker are all included in the low-end risk zone locally.

LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) RISK TO OUR NORTH AND EAST… Several locations in central and southeast Alabama are also included: Demopolis, Livingston, Butler, Selma, Camden, Prattville, Luverne, Troy, Elba, Enterprise, Geneva, Dothan, Daleville, Abbeville, Eufaula, Wetumpka, Tuskegee, Union Springs, Marion, and Eutaw are involved in the Level 1 risk zone.

WHAT TO EXPECT… Tuesday will be a day when some spots have rain and maybe a few thunderstorms. The odds of any particular spot having a severe thunderstorm are LOW, but not entirely zero. If any of the storms ramp up to severe levels, damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size of a quarter would be the main concerns. The overall tornado risk is very low.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TUESDAY… The main risk for strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday will happen in the afternoon and evening hours. 1PM to 10PM is the nine hour window when storms will be most likely to happen locally with the core risk being from 4PM to 8PM. Keep in mind that many areas on Tuesday probably WON’T have any severe weather issues as this remains a low-end risk situation. Regardless, we can’t rule out a few strong storms. Be ready for possible warnings! The good news is I am not expecting storms to be a problem in the overnight hours when most people are sleeping.

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND… While confidence remains low this evening, I am growing increasingly concerned about a separate, distinct severe weather potential that could be setting up for the Sunday timeframe. Parameters are increasingly concerning, but unfortunately it is far too early to know whether a) trends will continue to warrant concern and b) the specific risks for our area. April is our primary severe weather and tornado month across the Deep South, so this certainly should not be a surprise to anyone. This is something to monitor over the next few days. Plenty of time for things to change between now and then. Stay tuned.

APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I’ll have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM on Tuesday with the very latest. See you then!