Overview: Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday evening into the early morning hours of Monday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. These storms will have the potential to produce tornadoes (some potentially being strong and/or long track), damaging winds, flash flooding, and large hail.
Threat Levels & Locations: Level 4 (out of 5) risk, meaning widespread severe storms will be likely inland. Level 3 (out of 5) risk farther south and closer to the coast.
When: 3PM Sunday to 3AM Monday will be the 12 hour window when storms will be most likely to happen. 7PM Sunday evening to 1AM Monday will be the core risk time for south Alabama and northwest Florida.
Sunday Evening Risks: Tornadoes (some strong and/or long track), damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding.
As always, please let me know if you have any questions or have specific decision support needs. Below is the public, long form post that will debut with our live video this evening. Thank you!
STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT; LEVEL 4 RISK… Unfortunately, the severe weather risk for Sunday evening (April 19) continues to increase. Much of our inland zones are now involved in a rare Level 4 (out of 5) severe weather risk. The overall risk of tornadoes, including potentially a few strong tornadoes, has increased. In addition to tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, large hail, and flash flooding will all be concerns on Sunday evening into early Monday. 3PM Sunday to 3AM Monday will be the 12 hour window when storms will be most likely to happen. 6PM to 11PM Sunday will be the core risk time for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Please have a way to receive urgent weather warnings over the next 36 hours! This has the makings of yet another potentially potent round of severe weather. See all the details in the discussion below.
MAIN HAZARDS SUNDAY P.M. ARE TORNADOES & HIGH WIND… Strong tornadoes will become possible across parts of the Deep South, including across our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida, on Sunday into Sunday night in what will likely be a significant severe weather outbreak. There is at least some chance that long track tornadoes may also be possible. Damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding will also be possible. I am concerned the overall risk of flash flooding will be a bit more significant with this event compared to the Easter Sunday severe weather event. 1 to 3 inches of rainfall in total are expected across our area with the greater rain amounts likely happening inland.
CURRENT RISK LEVELS… The overall risk of severe weather is greatest across inland areas locally. Level 4 (out of 5) risk for some or all parts of Conecuh, Monroe, Butler, northern Covington, Crenshaw, Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Wilcox, Choctaw, and Marengo counties locally. Level 3 risk in place for Escambia (AL), southern Covington, Baldwin, Mobile, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties. Note that regardless of the risk level or color, this is a substantial severe weather risk across the entire region. It does not matter one bit if you’re in a yellow zone, orange zone, or red zone, you have a risk of potent severe weather on Sunday evening into early Monday!
WHO IS INVOLVED IN TORNADO RISK?… ALL of south Alabama and ALL of northwest Florida are involved in this severe weather risk zone. The greatest risk of very dangerous, long track tornadoes will happen over inland areas of south Alabama locally. The atmosphere will be quite volatile and very unstable across the entire region, thus we cannot rule out the possibility of multiple strong tornadoes locally. Again, *please* don’t get caught up in a risk color/number. This is a significant threat across the entire region.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – P.M. SUNDAY INTO A.M. MONDAY… This IS valid for Sunday, April 19 through early Monday, April 20. I’m saying that because the timing of this is just about spot on to what happened last week on Easter Sunday. 3PM Sunday to 3AM Monday will be the 12 hour window when storms will be most likely to happen. 6PM to 11PM Sunday will be the core risk time for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Storms could move into west Alabama as early as 3PM. More likely though, storms will move in around 5 or 6PM in the evening and progressively move across the region from west to east.
FEW SHOWERS & STORMS SUNDAY MORNING… Sunday morning will be similar to what happened today with a chance of showers and thunderstorms locally. I expect most of these showers and storms across our local area on Sunday morning to be pretty tame with little to no issues in the way of severe weather locally. There likely will be a cluster of heavy rain and thunderstorms to our north ongoing early (3AM to 9AM) Sunday morning. This area of storms will move west to east across the central part of Alabama, bringing with it a chance of strong storms there. Note this area of storms is different than the one that will move across our area later in the day.
LEVEL 4 (OUT OF 5) RISK INLAND… Much of the inland areas of south Alabama are now involved in a Level 4 (out of 5) significant severe weather risk zones valid for Sunday evening into the overnight hours of early Monday morning. Not all higher end risk zones are created equally. This Level 4 risk is driven exclusively by a risk of significant/strong tornadoes that has increased for Sunday evening. Note that strong tornadoes CAN happen outside of the higher risk zone, and this is simply a general idea of where the stronger tornadoes are MORE likely to happen. This Level 4 risk zone includes: Evergreen, Castleberry, Huxford, Repton, Range, Lyeffion, Owassa, Bowles, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Chapman, Forest Home, Red Level, Luverne, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Whatley, Gainestown, Chatom, Vinegar Bend, Deer Park, Wagerville, McIntosh, Millry, Butler, Silas, Toxey, Gilbertown, Mt. Sterling, Pine Hill, Oak Hill, Camden, Millers Ferry. This Level 4 risk zone also includes areas just to our north across the central part of Alabama, including Montgomery, Selma, Demopolis, Hayneville, Linden, Sweet Water, Livingston, York, Eutaw, Marion, Greensboro, Centreville, Brent, Clanton, Prattville, Autaugaville, Maplesville, Wetumpka, and surrounding areas. Much of central and southern Mississippi is also included in this zone.
LEVEL 3 RISK… Much of us across northwest Florida and other areas across Alabama are involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) risk for Sunday into early Monday. Again let me stress that strong tornadoes CAN happen outside of the higher Level 4 risk zone. This Level 3 risk is still a big deal. This Level 3 (out of 5) risk includes: Mobile, Wilmer, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Bay Minette, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Loxley, Stapleton, Stockton, Silverhill, Robertsdale, Summerdale, Atmore, Poarch, Flomaton, Brewton, East Brewton, Pollard, Riverview, Dixonville, Damascus, Brooklyn, Andalusia, Opp, Sanford, Florala, Onycha, Century, Bratt, Molino, Jay, Chumuckla, Milton, Ensley, Gonzalez, Munson, Harold, Holt, Crestview, Baker, Laurel Hill, Elba, Enterprise, Troy, Dothan, Geneva, Daleville, Abbeville, Eufaula, Union Springs, Tuskegee, Auburn, Opelika, Alexander City, Talladega, Roanoke, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Hoover, Calera, and surrounding areas.
LEVEL 2 RISK AT IMMEDIATE COAST… Very similar to the severe weather risk last weekend, the communities at the immediate beach zones in coastal Alabama and northwest Florida have a slightly lower risk of severe weather overall. There still could be strong to severe storms with tornadoes involved, but the risk is certainly higher farther inland. This Level 2 risk zone includes: Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Fort Morgan, Foley, Bon Secour, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Pensacola, Warrington, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Navarre, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Mary Esther, Niceville, Seaside, Santa Rosa Beach, extending southeast to Panama City, Mexico Beach, Port St. Joe, Apalachicola, and surrounding areas.
HAVE THOSE HELMETS READY… Tornado helmets or makeshift helmets are absolutely critical in a severe weather event like this. NOW is the time to make a severe weather plan. More info here.
BE THE HERO & SHARE INFO… The National Weather Service has launched an awareness campaign entitled, “Be The Hero.” The truth is you can absolutely be a hero and inform those folks around you that pay no attention to the world of weather. I guarantee you (sadly) there are folks all around that have heard NOTHING about this significant severe weather threat setting up for tomorrow. The way we combat that is to “be the hero” and let your friends and family know about this risk. Call them, text them, tag them, pass it along to them, I really don’t care HOW you tell your folks as long as we make as many folks aware of this risk as possible.
WIND ADVISORY LOCALLY… All local areas are now involved in a Wind Advisory due to strong pressure-gradient winds expected out ahead of the severe storms on Sunday. This Wind Advisory means winds of 15-25 mph are expected with gusts as high as 30-35 mph. Sunday will be a breezy, windy day just like last Sunday!
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INLAND… Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Butler, Wilcox, and Crenshaw counties (in addition to many counties across central Alabama) are under a Flash Flood Watch on Sunday into Sunday night due to the heightened potential for flash flooding in these areas.
WARM TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY… We briefly get a break from the rain and storms on Monday and Tuesday ahead of more showers becoming possible late Wednesday ahead of another severe weather risk setting up for Thursday. High temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be in the mid-80s with morning lows in the upper-50s.
ANOTHER POTENT ROUND OF STORMS ON THURSDAY… There continues to be growing concern about yet another upcoming severe weather risk setting up for Thursday, April 23. That is five days out from today. Early weather model guidance points to the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across the Deep South with a potential tornado risk involved. Let’s get through the event on Sunday evening and then we will start focusing our attention on Thursday. Note that it is not at all uncommon to have concurrent severe weather events “regularly” this time of year as we are going through the core of our primary severe weather season. Odds are we will have a warmer and quieter pattern as we get into the month of May.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP YOUR APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have the latest information posted by 7AM on Facebook, Twitter, and in the RedZone Weather app. Please join me for that on Sunday morning. Before we get there, we’ll have plenty of brief updates overnight in the RedZone Weather app.
Have a nice Saturday evening!