TORNADOES & DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY SUNDAY A.M. ACROSS SOUTH AL & NW FL… The overall confidence in our forecast continues to increase: Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and damaging gusts of wind will move across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Sunday morning. The system will advance from west to east with impacts potentially starting in parts of west Alabama as early as 11PM Saturday night. The system should clear out to our east by 2PM at the absolute latest. While you probably have seen alarmist-type posts suggesting the potential for multiple long-track, significant tornadoes across parts of Alabama, I am not at all ready to suggest that as a possibility this evening. The forecast remains good and on target in that there will be a potential for tornadoes, but the data just doesn’t suggest a widespread violent tornado risk just yet. Could that change? Yes, and you definitely need to check back with me on Saturday morning for the very latest. If a tornado affects YOU, it’s a big deal. It only takes one, which is why we are on guard this weekend. Let’s talk about a few details…

SLIGHTLY GREATER TORNADO & DAMAGING WIND RISK INLAND… Tornadoes are possible areawide on Sunday morning, but the core risk seems to be shaping up across our inland counties. If you’re in Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Butler, or Washington counties (or points north into central Alabama), you have a slightly higher tornado risk as this line of severe storms moves by on Sunday. That statement does NOT mean that tornadoes won’t happen elsewhere/closer to the coast, but the likelihood of a tornado is greater for inland areas. These counties include places like Thomasville, Grove Hill, Coffeeville, Jackson, Chatom, Millry, Wagerville, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Evergreen, Lyeffion, Repton, Greenville, Georgiana, and Chapman. Places just to the north of these areas like Selma, Camden, Pine Hill, Sweet Water, Butler, Pennington, Linden, Livingston, Eutaw, Marion, Tuscaloosa, Northport, and Centreville also have an enhanced risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.

NEW: SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… This has changed a bit since our midday update. The system seems to be moving a bit faster, based on the latest model data. We have bumped up our 12 hour window from 2AM Sunday to 2PM, with the core risk being 5AM to 1PM. We note storms could happen before or after this timeframe, but that is the MOST likely window. Please keep in mind that is the “severe weather timing” and not RAIN timing. Rain is likely intermittently long before that timeframe. Scattered showers and storms under severe limits are possible on Saturday during the daytime and evening hours. The severe weather risk will ramp up after 10PM.

WE ALL NEED MULTIPLE WAYS TO GET TORNADO WARNINGS… I cannot stress this enough: You need to have multiple ways to be able to receive tornado warnings and severe thunderstorm warnings *before* you go to sleep Saturday night. Nocturnal tornadoes are statistically quite deadly. NOAA Weather Radio is a great choice. There are good smartphone apps available designed to alert you in dangerous weather situations. Make sure you have Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) turned ON for each of your smartphones. Our free RedZone Weather app is a great supplement to all these things. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to download the free app. Once you have it downloaded, be sure to go into the Alerts tab and set up the specific alerts you want to receive straight from me.

HEADED TO A-DAY IN AUBURN OR TUSCALOOSA? READ THIS… Many folks from our area are headed north this weekend to Auburn and Tuscaloosa for A-Day festivities. The detailed forecast for each game is below. While there could be showers and thunderstorms around, the severe weather issues should hold off until after 7PM on Saturday. If you’re driving southbound toward south Alabama or northwest Florida from Auburn or Tuscaloosa on Saturday evening, be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app for the very latest severe weather info. Alabama kicks off the A-Day spring game at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa at 1PM CDT. Kickoff temperatures will be around 76° with a 50-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms around. Have a way to check the radar if you’re headed to Tuscaloosa on Saturday. Rain chances have been bumped up slightly as it looks like more moisture will be in place to support a few showers and storms. Auburn will begin the A-Day spring game at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn at 3PM CDT. Mostly cloudy skies are likely with kickoff temperatures around 80°. There is only a 20% chance of rain.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONFUSION… The Storm Prediction Center is the national agency charged with issuing convective outlooks. These are the outlooks you see every, single day in my products. Our local National Weather Service forecast office in Mobile, AL does a great job of showing graphics that are consistent with SPC. The National Weather Service local office in Birmingham (and Mobile as of this afternoon) has recently started issuing their own “risk graphics.” While SPC maintains only east Alabama in the Level 3 zone, the local NWS offices in Mobile and Birmingham have opted to do their own thing and put their parts of their respective coverage areas in a Level 3/orange risk area. It is a HIGHLY confusing situation and I’ve had a plethora of private messages about it all day. This (ridiculously confusing) situation, along with several others that have happened this spring, have prompted me to reevaluate our current system. We will do that reevaluation this summer after the current severe weather season winds down. When two agencies under NOAA (NWS & SPC) can’t agree/be consistent with their messaging, that is a significant problem that warrants a significant solution on our part. Let me know if you have any thoughts! We need to “be better” as a weather enterprise.

BE “WEATHER AWARE” THIS WEEKEND… Don’t let your guard down this weekend until after our severe weather risk passes on Sunday. We all need to have away to get the urgent weather warnings, especially Sunday morning when the main risk happens. I’ll have updates as needed this weekend in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner of app) and then read the alert descriptions so you can pick the ones you want to receive. All of our alerts are currently handcrafted by me. Unlike other sources, we won’t send you a push notification unless there is something you need to know.

NEXT UPDATE… My next update here on Facebook will be posted by 7AM on Saturday morning with the very latest information. Until then, be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app or at redzoneweather.com for more thoughts.

RZW Exec partners, model data has been quite consistent in suggesting that Alabama and northwest Florida may deal with a potentially significant round of severe weather during the upcoming weekend. While it is a bit unusual to discuss an event in detail 5 days out, I believe, based on the data, that it is warranted at this point. I won’t be “sounding the alarm” publicly just yet, but if model trends continue, we will have to ramp our messaging up considerably as there could be a chance of significant tornadoes. It is too early to say publicly IF significant tornadoes will happen, where they will happen, and when they will happen. What you need to know at this point is that there is a chance of tornadoes happening, potentially a few significant ones. As always, please let me know if you have any questions. I’ll have further RZW Exec updates later in the week to keep you posted. Below is the post I will be issuing publicly in the next few hours…

SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND… Tornadoes and all modes of severe weather will be possible this weekend across parts of the Deep South. The Storm Prediction Center has included parts of Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone valid for Saturday and Sunday with further forecast refinements likely over the next few days. While it is too early to know specific details, the big takeaway as of now is that we all need to be aware of the potential for severe weather this weekend when tornadoes may become possible. There is quite a bit of information that is still uncertain, but let’s discuss what we do know as of now…

RISK SHIFTS EASTWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY… We don’t know exactly what types of storms will happen on Saturday. We could have supercell thunderstorms, a QLCS/squall line, or perhaps both. Regardless, the greatest threat of severe weather will likely set up across eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi on Saturday. Late Saturday into Palm Sunday is when the tornado risk will likely be greatest across Alabama, northwest Florida, eastern Mississippi, and western Georgia.

CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER SETUP… There will be a shortwave trough and associated cold front positioned to our west on Saturday. A warm front will likely lift northward throughout the day Saturday, meaning much of our region should be involved in the warm sector where severe thunderstorms may happen. In addition to a favorable low-level jet (winds at about 5,000 feet off the ground at 40-50 knots), there will be plenty of helicity (changing of the winds with height) and instability/CAPE to fuel potential storms. Most of the “ingredients” seem to be in place to support exactly what one would expect in mid-April across the Deep South: The potential for tornadoes and severe weather. This is nothing unusual or out of the ordinary. March and April are our primary severe weather season.

*NOW* IS THE TIME TO GET PREPARED… It is so critical to have a plan of action to know what you would do and where you would go if a tornado warning is issued for your area. Do you have multiple reliable ways to receive urgent weather warnings? Facebook is not a good way to receive warnings, as the platform will often show you posts from days ago but not necessarily posts that are posted immediately. One way for you to get the warnings in south Alabama and northwest Florida is in our free RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner of the app) and turn ON all of the alerts you want to receive in the Alert Settings area.

CHECK BACK WITH ME FOR UPDATES… This is an evolving severe weather situation that will require further forecast updates. Be sure to check back with me over the next few days as we continue to get more details based on the latest data. No need to panic or stress, but there is a need to be aware of the situation and have a “severe weather action plan.”

My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Wednesday. Let me know if you have any specific questions. Have a great evening!

STRONG STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… RZW Exec partners, good evening! We’ve got an active weather pattern ahead for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. My main focus is now on the system that will move by late Sunday into Monday when our next cold front moves by. That is when our severe weather risk will ramp up. Before we get there, we’ve got a few thunderstorms happening right now with more on the way for Saturday.

SATURDAY STORMS… Below is the latest convective outlook for Saturday. You can see the greater severe weather risk zone (Levels 2 and 3) will happen well to our west across parts of Texas, Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and northwest Mississippi. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has much of Alabama included in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone due to thunderstorms that could produce hail (up to the size of quarters) and gusty winds. The tornado risk for Saturday for our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida remains near zero.

SUNDAY SEVERE STORMS TO OUR WEST… Sunday afternoon and evening is when our local area will need to begin to monitor local radar trends. SPC has a large swath of the southern U.S. involved in their Level 2 risk. They note that further outlook refinements are likely. This means we shouldn’t be shocked if a Level 3 or even Level 4 will be needed for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas in the next few outlooks valid for Sunday. The weather system responsible for this risk zone could produce tornadoes (perhaps some strong ones), large hail, and damaging winds across parts of MS, LA, and AR on Sunday. We will need to monitor trends Sunday evening to see just how far the severe storms can push to the east. For now, SPC has western parts of Alabama involved in their Level 2 risk zone.

I’ll keep you posted about this developing situation over the next 48 hours.

RAIN & STORMS LIKELY THURSDAY… RZW Exec partners, good evening! We’re looking ahead to tomorrow (Thursday) when we could have a few strong storms around. The Storm Prediction Center has the entire local area and much of west-central Alabama included in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone valid for Thursday. This means that isolated instances of gusty winds and hail will be possible in any of the storms that can ramp up briefly to a stronger level. The tornado risk remains LOW, but not quite zero.

LEVEL 1 RISK: WHO IS INVOLVED… ALL parts of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida are involved in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk on Thursday, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours. Mobile, Pensacola, Daphne, Fairhope, Destin, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Brewton, Flomaton, Atmore, Poarch, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Grove Hill, Thomasville, Jackson, Leroy, Chatom, Greenville, Georgiana, Andalusia, Opp, and Florala are all included. We note that several areas in central and north Alabama are also included in this low-end risk zone: Birmingham, Montgomery, Selma, Demopolis, Tuscaloosa, Jasper, Fayette, Hamilton, Camden, Hayneville, Butler, Livingston, and surrounding areas.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Damaging straight line wind gusts and hail will be the main concerns in any storms that can become strong on Thursday. Flash flooding could also happen if storms can train over the same areas. The severe weather risk (and tornado risk) will clearly be greatest across much of Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas, where the Level 2, slightly higher risk zone is in place.

BIG TAKEAWAYS… I’m not expecting major issues on Thursday, but there could be a few strong storms around. As always, if we happen to have any tornado warnings, I’ll be providing uninterrupted video coverage across our platforms. Please let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Have a nice Wednesday evening!

LOW-END RISK THIS EVENING FOR STRONG STORMS… RZW Exec partners, the Storm Prediction Center continues to outline much of our area in their Levels 1 and 2 risk zones to potentially see a few stronger storms later today. As of late morning, we have a batch of decaying showers and storms moving through parts of Monroe, Wilcox, and northern Baldwin counties in southwest Alabama. These showers and storms developed over southeast Mississippi early this morning and have moved into the western half of our region in the last few hours. I expect these showers to continue to weaken over the next 1-2 hours and be dissipated by 2PM. That should allow for more atmospheric heating this afternoon that could contribute to a few stronger storms later this evening. Here is a quick check of the local radar as of 11:22AM.

LEVEL 2 RISK FOR WIND & HAIL… Normally when any part of our local area has a Level 2 risk, I’m a bit more aggressive in our messaging since there usually is at least some type of tornado risk. This is clearly a situation where the main risks later today will be potentially damaging wind gusts and hail in the stronger thunderstorms that happen. The wind flow in the atmosphere today is unidirectional, meaning there is not much shear in place to cause tornadogenesis. The tornado risk is not zero, but it remains very low. Check out the latest convective outlook below.

SLIGHTLY GREATER RISK INLAND… Portions of Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Butler, Wilcox, Choctaw, and Crenshaw counties remain involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone as defined by the Storm Prediction Center. If we happen to have stronger storms this evening, they are most likely to occur in those areas. We note the remainder of our region remains involved in the lower-end, Level 1 marginal risk. “Marginal risk” means that while an isolated strong or severe storm may happen, the atmosphere is only marginally favorable for stronger storms.

WHAT TO EXPECT… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be present later this afternoon into this evening. The core timeframe for stronger storms is from 4PM to 10PM. There is a chance that some spots across our region won’t have *any* rain with this event. Rain and storms will kick out to the east by 3AM on Tuesday. Cooler, drier air will filter into our region overnight.

CONTINUING COVERAGE… As always, if we happen to have any tornado warnings locally today (odds are probably in the 0-10% chance range of a warning happening), be sure to join me for our uninterrupted live coverage. I’ll have plenty of updates this afternoon in the public-facing area of the RedZone Weather app and on redzoneweather.com. Please let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Thanks for being one of our valued partners. It truly is an honor for me to be able to bring you weather information everyday AND highlight your brand in our coverage. Have a great Monday!

LOW-END RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG STORMS… RZW Exec partners, good afternoon! The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a small zone of their low-end, marginal risk (Level 1 out of 5) valid for this afternoon and this evening. Thunderstorms are bubbling up right now just to our north across Marengo and Choctaw counties. These storms will move southeast and gain strength over the next few hours. The tornado risk today remains at/near zero. The concern (and the reason why SPC has introduced this risk so late) is that a few of these storms may ramp up to produce brief instances of gusty/damaging winds in isolated areas. The same type risk was in place yesterday (Sunday) and we saw no damage. Again, this low-end, very marginal risk. Storms will produce quite a bit of heavy rain and lightning where they do happen.

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Below is a still image of the regional radar view as of Noon…

SEVERE WEATHER RISK LESSENS… RZW Exec partners, good afternoon! The severe weather risk for south Alabama and northwest Florida has lessened considerably for this weekend. The better atmospheric dynamics will happen across north Mississippi. That is where a few tornadoes will be most likely to happen Saturday afternoon and evening. NW Mississippi is where the Storm Prediction Center has the Level 3 (out of 5) risk zone in place.

Locally, across the southern half of Alabama and northwest Florida, we may have a few thunderstorms but severe weather appears to be “off the table.” If we have any changes, I’ll let you know.

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND… RZW Exec members, confidence continues to increase that the Deep South will have another round of severe weather on Saturday into Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center has included nearly all of Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone valid for the afternoon and evening hours of Saturday, meaning isolated severe storms will be possible. We’re still 3 to 4 days out from this potential severe weather event, so details can and will change. As of now, it looks like the greater dynamics will set up just to our north across the northern parts of Mississippi and northwest Alabama.

SATURDAY STORMS… We will initially be monitoring areas to our northwest across Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, and western Tennessee for the development of stronger storms early in the day on Saturday. The threat of severe weather will shift into south Alabama and northwest Florida likely in the afternoon and evening hours of Saturday and last until Sunday morning. All modes of severe weather will be concerns, including a few tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, hail, and flash flooding.

STORM PLACEMENT – LOCAL AREA… The greatest risk of strong to severe thunderstorms in our local area will likely happen across the northwestern counties (Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Marengo, Wilcox, and Monroe counties in west Alabama). Similar to last weekend’s severe weather risk, we ALL have at least some risk of severe weather going into this weekend, however. This means that all of us should have a way to receive urgent weather warnings.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… Rain showers may be happening as early as Saturday morning. The severe weather risk will gradually ramp up throughout the afternoon. The core risk of severe weather for south Alabama and northwest Florida will likely be from 6PM Saturday to 6AM Sunday, although the risk may linger later into Sunday morning as the cold front may start moving a bit slower to the east. We note that the Storm Prediction Center has our area included in their Day 4 (Sunday – image below) outlook too for the Level 2 slight risk. Because of the way the SPC convective outlooks are issued (valid for a 24 hour period from 6AM to 6AM), this suggests potentially a lingering risk into Sunday morning. There will likely be some lingering rain showers into late Sunday morning/early afternoon after the passage of the strong/severe storms.

We’ve already started our public messaging for this potential severe weather setup. I’ll have more updates in the days ahead. Let me know if you have specific decision support needs regarding this severe weather situation. Have a wonderful Wednesday evening!

SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY… RZW Exec partners, good evening! We have a Level 2 (out of 5) risk of strong to severe thunderstorms across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Sunday afternoon and evening. The most likely scenario Sunday is that we will have a southeastward-advancing squall line/QLCS moving across our area in the evening hours that could produce damaging winds and a few isolated tornadoes.

RISK PLACEMENT… Basically the entire southern half of Alabama is included in the standard, slight (Level 2 out of 5) risk zone, meaning scattered severe storms will be possible. All of northwest Florida is included in the same risk zone as well. Our entire local primary coverage area is included in this zone. Brewton, Atmore, Thomasville, Jay, Monroeville, Evergreen, Greenville, Andalusia, Pensacola, Destin, Grove Hill, Chatom, and all local surrounding communities are included.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Isolated tornadoes and damaging winds will be the two main concerns in the stronger storms. Heavy downpours of rain are expected. Small hail is also possible.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… Model consensus continues to grow in that the greatest chance of strong to severe thunderstorms across our local area will happen in the afternoon and evening hours. 2PM to 10PM is the eight hour window when severe weather is most likely. Storms are much more likely earlier in the morning and early afternoon across central Alabama.

Below is a screenshot of the 3 kilometer North American Model (NAM) projected radar at 6PM on Sunday showing the squall line of storms moving through…

NEXT UPDATE… I’ll have another RZW Exec update for you with any significant changes that happen tomorrow (Saturday) by 5PM. Let me know if you have any specific questions!

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY… RZW Exec members, good afternoon! There is an increasing risk of severe weather setting up on Sunday across parts of the Deep South. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of north and west Alabama, nearly all of Mississippi, parts of southwest Arkansas and northeast Louisiana in their standard, Level 2 (out of 5) “slight risk” zone. This means that scattered severe storms will be possible, including isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms.

RISK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH… Compared to the severe weather event last weekend that caused multiple tornadoes in north Alabama and north Mississippi, the risk zone is farther to the south this time. This means that the western part of our local area is included in the slightly higher risk zone. At the moment, much of Clarke, Monroe, and Washington counties are included in the Level 2 risk.

Basically, communities along and north of a line from Citronelle to Monroeville to Montgomery to Lanett are included in the Level 2 risk. Keep in mind, this risk zone will likely evolve/change somewhat over the next 48 hours as we get closer to the event and details become more clear.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Isolated tornadoes and damaging winds will be the two main concerns in the stronger storms. Looking at the latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), it seems like flash flooding impacts will be limited unless we get storms training over the same areas which seems unlikely as of now.

STORM TIMING… Perhaps the most uncertainty with this forecast is in the timing. The weather models have been divergent on this as of late, meaning solutions seem to be getting more uncertain rather than becoming more clear. For now, we will be begin advertising the greatest risk of severe weather being in the afternoon and evening hours of Sunday across south Alabama and northwest Florida.

NEXT UPDATE… Since there is a growing potential for a few isolated tornadoes on the western side of our local area, I’ll have another RZW Exec update for you issued by 5PM on Friday. Let me know if you have any specific questions. Have a wonderful Thursday evening!

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ACTIVE WEATHER AHEAD… RZW Exec partners, good Monday afternoon! We’ve got an active weather pattern upcoming over the next 7-9 days with multiple rounds of strong storms being possible. There is at least some chance of rain each day in the next 7 days, with Wednesday and Thursday likely being the wettest days. Our friends in north Alabama will be dealing with much more (10+ inches, in some cases) rain than we will in south Alabama and northwest Florida (1-3″ of rain in total locally). Flooding will be possible across the northern half of the state, but I am not expecting significant flooding issues for the southern half of Alabama or northwest Florida. Here is the 7 Day Forecast highlighting our multiple rounds of storms ahead…

LEVEL 1 RISK ZONE FOR WEST ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has included much of Washington and Choctaw counties in west Alabama in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone valid for Wednesday. Vast majority of our local area remains in the non-severe, “general thunderstorm zone.” The greatest combination of “atmospheric ingredients” will come together across southeast Mississippi where a line of strong storms will likely form. This linear storm threat will move eastward in the late morning hours of Wednesday. Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern, with the tornado risk being very low, but not entirely zero. If any severe weather happens locally on Wednesday, it will almost certainly occur in Mobile, Choctaw, Washington, Marengo, or Clarke counties. Most of us should have an uneventful rain on Wednesday.

STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THIS WEEKEND… Beyond Wednesday, the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a (fairly uncommon) Level 2 risk five days out valid on Saturday for parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, and western stretches of Mississippi. SPC notes that tornadoes will be possible on Saturday in those areas. The question mark for our local area is IF that storm system can hold together and move eastward into our area on Sunday. Still plenty of uncertainty in the forecast and it’s simply too early to know whether severe storms could be an issue for our region on Sunday, but that is a possibility. We will have further RZW Exec updates on this as necessary.

CONTINUING COVERAGE… Please continue to monitor our public-facing updates that will continue here in the RedZone Weather app and across social media. If we have a more specific weather threat that materializes, I’ll be sure to bring you an update here in RZW Exec. Please let me know if you have any specific questions. Have a great week!

SNOW ACROSS WEST ALABAMA TUESDAY

RZW Exec partners, good Monday evening! Below is the latest forecast discussion that we will be giving to the general public in a special live video that I’ll be doing at 8PM CST. The video will air on Facebook Live and in Live Video tab of the RedZone Weather app. The forecast remains on target: West Alabama will likely have some minor (0.25″ to 1″ of snow accumulation) on Tuesday morning. Most of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida will have a cold rain with no snow impacts. North and central Alabama are under a Winter Storm Warning. 1-3″ of snow will be possible across much of those areas. Several of you have reached out today regarding decision support. I certainly appreciate that! Please let me know if you have any questions or concerns.

SPECIAL LIVE UPDATE: SNOW POSSIBLE INLAND, RAIN FOR THE COAST… The forecast for Tuesday has remained consistent over the last 48 hours: Minor snow accumulation will be possible across northern parts of our local area, specifically in northern Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Butler, and Monroe counties. The rest of us farther south of these areas will likely have a few flurries mixed in with the rain, but no accumulation. Higher snow amounts are expected to our north in central and northern Alabama.

RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT… Scattered rain showers will become possible after midnight into the early morning hours of Tuesday. These showers will spread eastward across the south Alabama and northwest Florida. Meanwhile, in central Alabama, there will be snow happening from midnight to 6AM. Areas near Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Huntsville, and Gadsden are expected to have 1-2” of accumulating snow during this timeframe.

CHANGE OVER TO SNOW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING… Rain will begin to change from rain to snow over west Alabama in Choctaw, Washington, Clarke, and Marengo counties between 4AM and 7AM. Snow will last 2-3 hours in most spots. The back edge of the precipitation will quickly move east throughout the morning hours of Tuesday.

GREATEST CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER SUNRISE… The change line from rain to snow will continue to move east throughout the morning hours of Tuesday. Most of the northern fringe of our area (Clarke, Washington, Monroe, Butler counties and points north) will have the greatest chance of snow between 6AM and 11AM on Tuesday morning. After the lunch hour, rain and snow will likely be out of our area to the east. This is good news as there will likely be a longer stretch of drying potential for local roadways than we initially thought.

POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS… Accumulation of snow is most likely to happen in our local area in the northern parts of Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Butler, and Monroe counties. Places near Thomasville, Coffeeville, Campbell, Millry, Frankville, Silas, Toxey, Butler, Pennington, Needham, Gilbertown, Vredenburgh, Beatrice, Forest Home, Pine Apple, Camden, Pine Hill, and Greenville will likely have 0.25” to 1” of accumulating snow by Noon on Tuesday. Areas to the south of these areas will MOST likely have no accumulation with just a mix of rain and snow and no notable accumulation. As I often caution, there will be some surprises along the way with some spots picking up more snow than expected and some will pick up less.

BLACK ICE POTENTIAL… Be sure to see the graphic in the video about this. The greatest potential for black ice and ice issues on local roadways will be in west Alabama where the greatest snow accumulation happens. The main concern for much of Washington, Clarke, Monroe, and Butler counties will be icing that occurs on elevated surfaces like bridges. There will be some concern for this during Tuesday morning, but the main concern will be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning when temperatures are expected to be in the low- to mid-20s across our region. That is just a hair above the hard freeze criteria (20° or less). Take it easy if you have to be out and about on Tuesday into Wednesday. We will know more about the ice issues once we start seeing radar trends in the morning.

COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TUESDAY P.M. INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING… Very cold Arctic air will surge into our region during the daytime hours of Tuesday behind the passing cold front. Overnight lows on Wednesday morning will be in the low- to mid-20s. I can’t rule out a few rural spots across the northern flank of our region being around 18-19° at daybreak Wednesday.

SEND IN YOUR PICS… It is SO helpful to have “ground truth” photos from your location! Don’t forget that you can send in your weather pictures in the RedZone Weather app (Share tab is in in the bottom tab bar in the middle area). You can also send them in on Facebook or Twitter. If you’re in an area that is forecast to have snow on Tuesday, please send in your snow/weather photos!

NEXT VIDEO… My next video update will be posted Tuesday morning when the snow/rain event is happening. Have a good Monday evening!

DETAILED SNOW PROJECTION BELOW… RZW Exec partners, I hope you’re having a nice end to your weekend. Below you will find a highly detailed projection of the snow potential setting up for Tuesday. We will share much of this information publicly in the next few hours. This is very specific, but if you need more information and/or guidance related to decision support needs for your school, organization, or business, please don’t hesitate to let me know.

HIGHLY DETAILED COUNTY-BY-COUNTY SNOW PROJECTION… Snow to the north and rain to the south. That’s the one liner summary of how Tuesday’s winter weather event will shape up. The greatest chance of experiencing snow will happen 6AM to Noon on Tuesday along the back edge of a mass of precipitation that will move across our area from west to east. Some spots will see no accumulation, whiles areas on the northern side of our region COULD end up with over 1” of snow in isolated spots. The bigger snow amounts will happen across northern and central parts of Alabama where 2-4” of snow can’t be ruled out.

CHOCTAW, WILCOX, NORTHERN CLARKE, NORTHERN WASHINGTON, NORTHERN MONROE, NORTHERN BUTLER COUNTIES… These will be the communities that will likely pick up between 0.25” and 1” of snow in total. There could be isolated higher amounts up to 2” of snow, but I expect that to be the anomaly locally with the greater snow amounts clearly happening to our north. Communities like Thomasville, Fulton, Grove Hill, Coffeeville, Campbell, Tallahatta Springs, Sweet Water, Dixons Mills, Pine Hill, Camden, Pine Apple, Greenville, Forest Home, Awin, McWilliams, Beatrice, Franklin, Vredenburgh, Nanafalia, Silas, Toxey, Butler, Gilbertown, Lisman, Pennington, Millry, and Cullomburg are included in this zone. The greatest chance of accumulating snow in these zones will happen from 6AM to Noon on Tuesday with the snow/precipitation ending from west to east.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF WASHINGTON, CLARKE, MONROE, BUTLER, AND NORTHERN CONECUH COUNTIES… 0.1” to 0.5” of accumulating snow is expected in total in these areas. Could there be a few surprises? Yes, and some areas may pick up more than the expected amount. On the contrary of that, some spots in this zone may have no accumulation. Greater snow chances will happen well to the north. The following places are included in this zone: Chatom, Leroy, Wagerville, Fruitdale, Jackson, Gainestown, Perdue Hill, Monroeville, Frisco City, Repton, Evergreen, Owassa, Lyeffion, Bowles, Midway, Starlington, Georgiana, McKenzie, Oaky Streak, Luverne, and Troy.

COVINGTON, ESCAMBIA (AL), MOBILE, BALDWIN, ESCAMBIA (FL), SANTA ROSA, OKALOOSA COUNTIES… If you’re a “snow lover” and you live in one of these counties, unfortunately “the odds are not in your favor” when it comes to this snow potential. While snow flurries are possible, accumulating snow is much less likely. I caution though, there could be a few isolated spots that have a dusting of snow before this is all over, although that will be the anomaly and not the trend. Places in this zone include: Mobile, Citronelle, Bay Minette, Stapleton, Stockton, Uriah, Calvert, Atmore, Poarch, Flomaton, Brewton, Castleberry, Andalusia, Carolina, Opp, Florala, Gantt, Brantley, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Molino, Jay, Berrydale, and Laurel Hill.

COASTAL AREAS TO HAVE RAIN ONLY… Snow will probably not happen in coastal areas of Alabama and northwest Florida. If you live south of Interstate 10, there is a high chance you won’t have snow or flurries at all. More likely, we will just have a cold, miserable rain in these areas: Pensacola, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Loxley, Silverhill, Robertsdale, Foley, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Dauphin Island, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Theodore, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Milton, Pace, Navarre, Holt, Harold, Crestview, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Mary Esther, and Niceville.

SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… Snow accumulation is not expected in southeast Alabama & the Wiregrass region. Could snow flurries happen? Yes, that is a possibility. This includes places near Dothan, Enterprise, Elba, Ozark, Daleville, Geneva, Samson, Abbeville, and Eufaula.

FLORIDA PANHANDLE – RAIN… There is high confidence that the Florida Panhandle region will have a cold rain and no snow/flurries on Tuesday. This includes Walton County and points east: Miramar Beach, Seaside, De Funiak Springs, Mossy Head, Chipley, Marianna, Bonifay, Panama City, Mexico Beach, Port St. Joe, Apalachicola, and Blountstown.

CENTRAL AND NORTH ALABAMA… The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for much of northern and central Alabama where 1-3” of accumulating snow could happen. Travel impacts could be pretty extensive with roadway closures possible. Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden, Demopolis, Centreville, Sylacauga, Centre, Cullman, Oneonta, Jasper, Fayette, Aliceville, York, Eutaw, Marion, Haleyville, Double Springs, Saks, Leeds, Clanton, Huntsville, Decatur, Muscle Shoals, Guntersville, Moulton, Russellville, Athens, Ardmore, Florence, Fort Payne, and and surrounding areas are included in this zone.

VERY COLD AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON… Temperatures will be QUITE cold Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, regardless of if your particular location has snow on the ground or not. We could be in hard freeze territory by Wednesday morning with upper-10s becoming possible on the thermometer by 6AM Wednesday across our northern counties. Wednesday will be a very cold day with highs only in the 40s under mostly cloudy skies.

LOCALIZED SNOW IMPACTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY

RZW EXEC SNOW UPDATE… RZW Exec partners, good Saturday evening! We’re looking ahead to Tuesday when we could have winter weather/snow impacts across parts of south Alabama. For now, snow impacts look to remain limited to parts of Clarke, Washington, Monroe, Wilcox, and Choctaw counties in west Alabama. Impacts could begin as early as Tuesday morning and extend into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Black ice on area roadways will be a possibility, especially in areas along and WEST of the Interstate 65 corridor. Northwest Florida, south central Alabama, and Mobile & Baldwin counties will likely have a few flurries, but not much more in the way of snow impacts. I will be publishing a much more detailed county-by-county analysis of what you can expect in tomorrow’s (Sunday) RZW Exec update, however this is an early “heads up” that there could be travel impacts and more over west Alabama on Tuesday. Below is the post I’ll be pushing publicly shortly in the RedZone Weather app and across our social platforms. Let me know if you have any early decision support needs or questions. Otherwise, you can expect to hear from me tomorrow evening. Have a good Saturday evening!

SNOW ACCUMULATION FIRST FORECAST; BLACK ICE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT… Tuesday, January 29 will likely be the first “snow day” that parts of our local area have had in quite some time. While there is still a high chance that much of our area will NOT have snow accumulation, west Alabama will likely be our local focus points for the area that have some accumulation. Snowflakes and flurries (with no accumulation or real impact) is what much of our area will have. Much of northwest Florida and southeast Alabama will have rain with very little in the way of snow/flurries. This is still very much an evolving forecast with high UNCERTAINTY, as are most “southern snow” events. Please continue to check back with me on Sunday and over the next few days in the lead-up to this event as more clarity will arrive with more forecast model data.

THE SNOW SITUATION ON TUESDAY… Rain showers will likely begin late Monday evening. Rain chances increase overnight into Tuesday morning. This will be a very cold rain with temperatures holding steady in the low-40s. There will be a (likely brief) change over from rain to sleet and ultimately snow during the late morning hours of Tuesday, first over west Alabama. The rain/snow line will progressively move east throughout the afternoon on Tuesday. There is some indication that dry air moving in behind the powerful cold front may overtake the layers of the atmosphere that are more moist and conducive for “snow-making.” If this happens, obviously snow would be more limited. On the contrary, there’s also a chance that we could have a few hours of light snow over west Alabama that spread eastward toward the I-65 corridor and beyond.

SNOW/MIX TIMING… Rain will be in progress Tuesday morning. The change over to snow will happen across west Alabama between 9AM and 1PM. This rain/snow line will move eastward and will likely reach places near Interstate 65 in the early afternoon hours. Snow/flurries will end from west to east in the early evening hours of Tuesday.

POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS… This is information that most people care about: Impacts, aka how it affects YOU. While there could be a light dusting of snow across Clarke, Monroe, Wilcox, Choctaw, and Washington counties in west Alabama (and points north), accumulation is much less likely across other counties in our region. Local roadways and bridges could potentially be affected by ice and snow buildup across these counties on Tuesday from late morning extending into Wednesday. For communities along, south, and east of the Interstate 65 corridor, the main concern won’t be snow/ice accumulation as much as it will be the potential for black ice that builds up on area roadways Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES… Winter storms and snow are two of the most difficult things we deal with in the weather forecast world for the Deep South. This is due, in part, to the relative infrequent nature of these systems. We don’t have a lot of good analogs to compare the atmosphere to in these situations. I say that very directly to say that this remains a LOW CONFIDENCE forecast. There can and will be changes that we need to make over the next few days. Please continue to check with me as we update the latest information. You can always get the latest info I post across social media and on our website in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download.

NEXT UPDATE… My next #rzw forecast video will be posted by 2PM on Sunday afternoon. Let me know if you have specific questions and I’ll do my best to give you the best information we have as of right now.

SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER RISK TODAY… RZW Exec partners, good morning! This is a quick update to let you know that the severe weather risk across the entirety of our local area has increased slightly. The Storm Prediction Center continues to “up the ante” in terms of the severe weather potential. This won’t be a large, significant tornado outbreak or anything like that, BUT there could be multiple tornadoes today across our region. You can see in the map above that SPC has upped most of our local area into their Level 2 (out of 5) standard slight risk zone. This means that scattered severe storms will be possible, specifically isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms. We’re already observing broadly rotating cells.

TIMING OF STORMS… 1PM to 9PM is the 8 hour window in which severe weather is MOST likely to happen. We could have tornado warnings before that, but that 8 hour window is when the greatest combination of “severe weather ingredients” (shear/CAPE) will be in place across the region.

PUBLIC UPDATES CONTINUE… It’s been quite a busy morning already with numerous updates being posted in the public-facing sections of the RedZone Weather app. I’m about to send out a Medium-Level Alert in the next hour detailing more about the risks today. As always, please let me know if you have any questions or decision support needs. Have a good day!

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Tuesday morning! The Storm Prediction Center has opted to include parts of our northwest Florida counties in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone valid for Wednesday due to a low-end risk of damaging wind gusts in any of the stronger storms that happen. The risk of a brief, isolated tornado is VERY low across northwest Florida and is closer to zero across south Alabama. SPC has included the southern parts of Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties in their low-end risk zone.

WHAT TO EXPECT WEDNESDAY… In short, RAIN. We will have a good, soaking, cool rain in place across our region for much of the day on Wednesday. Rain amounts will be between 1-2″ in total before rain moves out early Thursday morning. There could be some embedded thunderstorms, especially closer to the coast. Instability is expected to be quite limited throughout this event, thus I am not nearly as concerned about the potential for severe weather as there is a very high chance we won’t have any major issues.

NEXT UPDATES… Unless we have major changes (which I’m not expecting), this will be the one and only RZW Exec alert for this particular weather system. We will begin our public messaging about the very low-end severe weather risk for Wednesday shortly. As always, please let me know if you have any questions!

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY

LEVEL 2 SEVERE WEATHER RISK SATURDAY… RZW Exec partners, good morning! There could be a few strong to severe storms on Saturday capable of producing isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. There have been a few changes over the last 24 hours. Most notably, the Storm Prediction Center now outlooks much of our area in their Level 2 (out of 5) “slight risk” zone. Yesterday, we were at at Level 1 risk. Today, we’re at Level 2, which is the standard slight risk.

RZW EXEC COMMENTARY… This will be a linear threat of storms, also known as a squall line or quasi-linear convective system (QLCS). This line of storms is expected to push into west Alabama in the late morning or early afternoon hours of Saturday. The line of storms will push eastward across our area through the afternoon and into the early evening hours. It is plausible to assume we will have 0-3 tornadoes across our region, probably weaker ones that down a few trees. Tomorrow will be a day that we need to take severe thunderstorm warnings seriously as well. Why? The straight line wind threat will be the main concern as this line of storms moves by. Flash flooding will not be as big of a concern with this event since it will be fast-moving. Large hail is not a major concern with this system, although smaller hail (less than nickel size) will be possible as the core of the squall line moves by a given location. Rain amounts will generally be less than 1.5″ in total across the region.

STORM TIMING… The risk of severe weather will last from 9AM Saturday to 6PM Saturday for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Storms will likely enter west Alabama from Mississippi in the late morning hours. These storms will move across our region from west to east through the Saturday afternoon hours.

MUCH COOLER LATE SATURDAY EVENING… The thunderstorms that will move through Saturday are happening in response to a strong cold front moving by our region. Sharply cooler air will move in after the passage of the line of storms through a given location. Temperatures Sunday into Monday will be quite cold, with a hard freeze potentially being possible for our northern counties early Monday morning. I’m certainly not going to bother you with further alerts about this as we have talked extensively about it over the last few days, but I do want everyone to be aware that this will be the coldest snap we’ve had so far this winter. Overnight lows in the 20s by Monday morning!

CONTINUING COVERAGE… This is the final RZW Exec update about this severe weather potential setting up for Saturday. We will have plenty more updates today, tonight, and on Saturday across our social media platforms and in the main area (REFRESH tab, bottom left corner) of the RedZone Weather app. Let me know if you have any questions or need specific help with your decision support. Have a wonderful weekend and stay safe!

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS SATURDAY

LOW-END RISK ON SATURDAY… We have a low-end, marginal risk of severe weather setting up for the daytime hours of Saturday as a powerful cold front moves through south Alabama and northwest Florida. While most of us will have brief periods of heavy rain, there is a low-end risk of damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms. The risk of an isolated tornado remains very low, but NOT zero.

80 percent of the time in these low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk situations, our area ends up not having any tornado warnings, but that means two out of ten times features at least one tornado warning.

WHO IS INVOLVED… ALL of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida is included in the Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone valid for Saturday as defined by the Storm Prediction Center. In addition, all zones in southeast and central Alabama are included in the low-end risk zone. Basically everyone south of a line from Hamilton to Oneonta to Roanoke is included in this low-end risk, including Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Auburn, Montgomery, Selma, Demopolis, Greenville, Troy, Dothan, Thomasville, Monroeville, Evergreen, Atmore, Brewton, Mobile, Fairhope, Pensacola, Destin, Panama City, and surrounding areas.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… For vast majority of us, we’ll have intermittent times of heavy rain with some thunder and lightning as well. There is a low-end risk of damaging straight line winds and a few, brief tornadoes as well. If any tornadoes occur, they will most likely be weak and not last very long at all. As I often say in our public products though, if ANY tornado affects YOU, it’s a big deal. Rain amounts with this system will likely be 1 to 2 inches in total, meaning flash flooding hazards should be limited.

STORM TIMING… The risk of severe weather will last from 10AM Saturday to 7PM Saturday for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Storms will likely enter west Alabama from Mississippi in the late morning hours. These storms will move across our region from west to east through the Saturday afternoon hours.

MUCH COLDER SUNDAY… After the passage of the cold front that is causing this low-end severe weather potential, significantly colder air will move into our region from the northwest late Saturday into Sunday. While temperatures will likely not be AS cold as initially indicated, our entire region will likely plunge into the 20s by Monday morning. The daytime hours of Monday look to be a bit warmer than we initially expected as well. High temperatures on Monday will surge into the 50s.

CONTINUING COVERAGE… Our public messaging about this low-end risk of severe weather will kick off shortly with Low-Level Alerts being issued here in the RedZone Weather app. My next RZW Exec update will be issued tomorrow (Friday, January 18) no later than 5PM. Let me know if you have any questions! Have a good afternoon!

BITTERLY COLD TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK

RZW Exec partners, good Monday evening! We’ll be posting a special graphic this evening across our platforms discussing the bitterly cold temperatures that are slated to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida (and really the entire Deep South) in the early part of next week. A Hard Freeze Warning will likely be needed Sunday (January 20) night into Monday, January 21. Temperatures will likely be in the low-20s Monday morning with wind chill values in the low-10s. We note there is NO snow in the forecast for our local area. Below are some of the paragraphs I’ll be including in the post this evening. As always, let me know if you have any questions, comments, or concerns!

NO SNOW, BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEXT WEEK… The coldest temperatures of 2019 (and of this particular winter season) will happen early next week as a cold front moves by Saturday ushering in a very cold, Arctic air mass. Temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s all day on Sunday, followed by the coldest night of this cold snap. The image attached is of the projected overnight lows for Monday morning, January 21. Alabama and northwest Florida will endure a hard freeze with temperatures in the 20s across our region. Central and north Alabama will almost certainly fall into the 10s.

RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY… Our next chance of rain will happen late Thursday into Friday as temperatures warm into the 60s and potentially near 70° each day. We could have a few thunderstorms on Saturday, but the severe weather risk remains very low to near zero.

NO SNOW IN THE FORECAST… Other than a few snow flurries being possible on Sunday across north and parts of north-central Alabama, there is no snow in the forecast. The chance of snow flurries across interior regions of south Alabama will be very low (<10%) with the chance of flurries near the coast being basically zero. Long range models show more areas of low pressure developing and moving across or near our area over the next few weeks, but all of the precipitation areas are rain and not snow (even in the longer range “idea” models). Could this change? Yes, but please keep in mind that snow events are RARE for our local area. We had two snow events last winter and that’s only the second time in weather recording history (since the 1850s) that has happened. Snow is uncommon around here and there is currently none forecast to happen.

DON’T FEED THE TROLLS… It’s often the case this time of year that the clickbaiters and the “weather hype machine” on social media go absolutely crazy – posting ludicrous model images that show a snow potential for our area. Please understand that vast majority of these folks are aiming for likes, shares, and clicks. They usually a) are not meteorologists and b) don’t care if what they’re posting is accurate or not. The real headline with this next cold front won’t be snow, but clearly the very cold temperatures and very low wind chill values. Help me out in combating this nonsense by NOT sharing it.

WIND CHILL VALUES TO BE IN TEENS LOCALLY… After the passage of the cold front, there will likely be a strong north or northwest wind happening across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Combined with temperatures in the 20s and 30s late Sunday into Monday, wind chill values could easily be in the 10s. If you’re planning on hunting or being outside for another activity on Sunday evening into Monday, please bundle up and be ready for brutal cold and strong wind (not a fun combination in my experience!).

Let me know if you have any questions. My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM. Enjoy your evening!

STORMS ON MONDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Sunday afternoon! There will be a low-end risk of strong to severe storms on Monday, mainly between 2PM and 8PM, for areas along and west of the Alabama River in west Alabama. The Storm Prediction Center has much of Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Marengo, and Mobile counties under their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone valid for Monday into the evening hours. Clearly, the better dynamics with this weather system will be to our north in the northwestern corner of Alabama. Below is the text I’ll be using in today’s video update. Let me know if you have any questions or concerns!

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ON MONDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked the western part of our local area in their low-end, Level 1 marginal severe weather risk valid for Monday. The greater chance of severe storms will happen across the northwest corner of Alabama and in northeast Mississippi where the Level 2 slight risk is in place.

LEVEL 2 RISK TO OUR NORTH… Communities along and west of Interstate 59 in northwest Alabama are included in the standard slight risk zone to potentially see a few stronger storms on Monday into Monday evening. Huntsville, Cullman, Decatur, Muscle Shoals, Florence, Hartselle, Double Springs, Aliceville, Hamilton, Jasper, Russellville have the greatest chance of severe weather on Monday. The greatest risk will be damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms. An isolated tornado or two will be possible as well.

LEVEL 1 RISK FOR WEST ALABAMA LOCALLY… If any strong to severe thunderstorms happen in south Alabama or northwest Florida, they will likely happen WEST of Interstate 65 as a cold front approaches on Monday into Monday evening. For our local area, the following communities are involved in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone: Thomasville, Monroeville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Chatom, Fruitdale, Vinegar Bend, Leroy, Citronelle, Wilmer, and Mt. Vernon. The Level 1 risk zone extends northeast into central Alabama as well. Butler, Demopolis, Tuscaloosa, Camden, Selma, Prattville, Clanton, Birmingham, Talladega, Anniston, Gadsden, Ft. Payne, and Centre are all included in the low-end risk zone.

FOR COMMUNITIES TO THE EAST… Storms will likely be weakening pretty considerably by the time they get to the communities along and EAST of I-65 in our local area on Monday. This is the “General Thunderstorm” zone as outlooked by the Storm Prediction Center, aka the areas that don’t have a formal severe weather risk. Yes, there will be thunder and lightning at times, but the overall severe weather risk is much lower. Mobile, Pensacola, the Eastern Shore, Brewton, Evergreen, Greenville, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Destin, Crestview, Milton, Century, Atmore, Poarch, Bay Minette, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, and Gulf Breeze.

CONTINUING COVERAGE… This will be the final RZW Exec update issued for this event as we will transition to our public coverage. Be sure to check with me in the main area of the RedZone Weather app on Monday for updates. Again, let me know if there is anything specific I can help you with if you need weather-related decision support. Have a great evening!

MORE STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Friday evening! This is a brief update to give you an early heads up that we may have another round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms (in addition to potentially 2-4″ of additional rainfall) on Monday, December 31. Model data has been inconsistent, so it’s not feasible for me to provide potential details just yet. The big takeaway is that under some model scenarios, we may have another round of active weather on Monday. Early indications point to a morning event, but since there is so much uncertainty, I would take that with a proverbial “grain of salt.” Details will become more clear this weekend.

ACTIVE MORNING FOR WEST ALABAMA… A major flash flood event happened over southeast Mississippi and west Alabama this morning, with some spots picking up 15 INCHES OF RAIN in less than 12 hours. We also had one tornado warning in Washington County this morning around 3:00AM. Here is the archive of our live streaming coverage if you’d like to go back and see it. The event on Monday could potentially be similar, in that the biggest risk may happen due to training showers and thunderstorms that produce extreme rainfall amounts.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… I’ll have the latest on the Monday severe weather potential posted here in Tactical Ops by 5PM on Sunday evening. No major weather issues, other than patchy areas of dense fog and ongoing flooding, are expected through then. Let me know if you have any questions. Enjoy your weekend!

LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this evening into the morning hours of Friday, mainly across the far western fringes of Alabama. A potent line of storms is currently moving east across Mississippi and Louisiana. This line of storms will likely weaken as it approaches the Alabama-Mississippi state line tonight. The overall risk of severe weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida remains VERY low through this evening but the risk will increase slightly after 8PM across west Alabama. Rain coverage will likely increase throughout the day, and there may be some thunder involved this evening. Storms will cross our area from west to east on Friday morning. Let’s look at the situation as it stands right now and discuss what you can expect into Friday…

STORMS TO OUR WEST

Strong to severe thunderstorms are moving eastward across southern Mississippi and Louisiana. A Tornado Watch continues to our west valid until 6PM. New Orleans, Jackson (MS), McComb, and Baton Rouge are all included in the watch area. We note several tornado warnings have happened along the line as it continues to push eastward. This line of storms will likely peak in intensity over the next few hours before weakening after sunset. This is good news for our local area, as the line of storms will likely break apart somewhat as it moves into our local area late tonight or early on Friday.

GREATEST RISK: WEST ALABAMA

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to include parts of extreme west Alabama in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone. Parts of Choctaw, Washington, and Mobile counties are included. IF severe weather happens in the state of Alabama, it will likely occur near the AL/MS state line as this main line of storms approaches from the west. We note that SPC has now included basically all of the local area in a low-end, Level 1 risk zone valid for Friday morning after 6AM. The severe weather risk will end from west to east as the main line of storms passes a given location on Friday morning.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING

Based on the latest radar data, this line of storms is moving quickly eastward across Mississippi. It certainly seems like the decaying line of storms could reach west Alabama a bit earlier than guidance has indicated, thus it seems prudent to suggest that IF severe weather happens in southwest Alabama, it is most likely to happen between 11PM Thursday and 5AM on Friday. Please keep in mind that storms will almost certainly be weakening as they move into Alabama, and there is a significant chance we come through this event without any tornado warnings in our local area. On the other end of the spectrum, however, there is also a chance we could have a few, brief tornadoes across the region. The truth of what will happen is probably in the middle of those two scenarios, with a tornado warning or two being possible.

2-5″ OF RAIN AHEAD

The (above) Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is valid through Monday, December 31. Even though our severe weather risk will end long before then, there is still a chance of flash flooding through the middle part of next week. Parts of west Alabama may have upwards of 5 inches of rain, with most of us picking up 3-4″ before all is said and done. Localized flash flooding issues will be possible, especially across the western half of our local area. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entirety of our local area other than Okaloosa and Covington counties.

CONTINUING COVERAGE

This will be the final RZW Exec update about this severe weather potential as my focus shifts to our public-facing products. Be sure to keep up with the updates throughout the afternoon/evening here in the main (REFRESH tab) feed of the RedZone Weather app. Let me know if you have any questions!

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY A.M.

RZW Exec partners, I hope each of you had a great Christmas! We have a potential severe weather event coming together for the morning hours of Friday across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida. While the main concern for most of us across the region will be heavy rain that could potentially lead to flash flooding, there also is a risk late Thursday into Friday morning for a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts, especially over our west Alabama counties.

GREATEST RISK: WEST ALABAMA

Above is the latest convective outlook, issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma. SPC has parts of west Alabama included in their Level 2 (out of 5) standard slight risk zone to potentially see a few strong to severe thunderstorms early Friday morning. Much of the remainder of our local area is included in the Level 1 marginal risk zone, depicted in the darker shade of green in the graphic above. These are the areas where the severe weather risk is LOW, but it’s not zero.

This means that the risk of a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms will happen across Mobile, Washington, and Choctaw counties in west Alabama. Communities included in the Level 2 risk zone are areas in/near Chatom, McIntosh, Fruitdale, Vinegar Bend, Frankville, Millry, Citronelle, Wilmer, Toxey, Silas, and Gilbertown.

BIG RAIN EVENT

All of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida will likely pick up 2 to 3 inches of rainfall in total over the next 5 days. We note that rainfall projections have edged downward slightly over the last 24 hours, as we did have much of the region included in the 3-4″ rainfall zone. There could be some training involved with showers and storms over the next few days, meaning localized flash flooding issues will be possible.

RAIN/STORM TIMING

Scattered rain showers will likely begin across the region as early as late this (Wednesday) evening. Scattered to numerous showers are expected across the region on Thursday. The severe weather risk will begin on Thursday evening and last until the main line of thunderstorms passes through on Friday morning. The line of storms should progressively weaken as it crosses our area. There’s a good chance we’ll be able to give a severe weather “all clear” during the late morning hours of Friday. Rain will continue long after the severe weather risk ends, however. The core risk of strong to severe thunderstorms will be from 2AM Friday to 8AM Friday.

Below is a projected radar view from the 3km North American Model (NAM) valid at 8AM CST on Friday morning. This model simulation shows the main line of thunderstorms entering west Alabama with scattered showers and storms out ahead of the main line. IF (and that’s a big if, at this point) any of the storms out ahead of the main line become discrete/isolated, there could be a tornado or two associated with those storms as well.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE

My next RZW Exec update will be posted here in Tactical Ops by 2PM on Thursday, December 27. We have already initiated our public messaging about this severe weather event and will continue to post updates in the public-facing sections of the RedZone Weather app and across our social platforms as well. Let me know if you have any questions!

ISOLATED STORMS THURSDAY

RZW Exec partners, good Tuesday morning! This is a brief update to give you an early heads up that we will be tracking rain and thunderstorms on Thursday into early Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has opted to include parts of Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), and Santa Rosa counties in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone. This will be a low-end severe weather potential with the bigger concern being heavy downpours of rain Thursday evening into early Friday. Could an isolated tornado happen? Yes. Are tornadoes likely with this event? No, at least not in our local area.

This low-end severe weather potential will be quite similar to the events we’ve had over the last few weeks with quite a bit of rain, but not much in the way of truly hazardous weather. That statement is according to the latest model data, which shows a significant lack of CAPE/instability across our region. This will likely serve to hinder storms in a significant way. Below is the latest convective outlook valid for Thursday…

PUBLIC UPDATES TO CONTINUE

Barring any significant change in forecast data, this will likely be a severe weather potential with very little in the way of impacts other than heavy rain at times. IF significant forecast changes happen, I’ll be sure to bring you another RZW Exec update here in the Tactical Ops Room. Otherwise, we will continue to publicly post about this low-end severe weather event over the next few days. As always, let me know if you have any questions. Have a great week!

HEAVY RAIN & STORMS LIKELY SATURDAY

RZW Exec partners, good Friday morning! We have another round of active weather slated to happen on Saturday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. This event will feature a conditional, low-end risk of severe thunderstorms confined to the immediate coastal areas of our region. The headline risk over the next 24-48 hours will come from the potential of flash flooding as heavy rain is expected.

ISOLATED COASTAL STORMS

The Storm Prediction Center has opted to include coastal areas of Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone. This means that a few isolated, brief strong to severe storms will be possible in these areas with the main concern being a brief, spin-up tornado or damaging wind gust in the stronger storms that happen. Mobile, Pensacola, Destin, Milton, Pace, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Gulf Breeze, Mary Esther, Niceville, Robertsdale, Silverhill, Foley, Elberta, Magnolia Springs, Point Clear, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, and Theodore are included in this low-end severe weather risk zone.

The remainder of our local area is included in the “General Thunderstorms” zone, which is where weaker thunderstorms are expected to remain below severe limits. Thunder and lightning will be possible, but the overall severe weather risk is much lower for inland communities. This includes places like Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Flomaton, Evergreen, Monroeville, Greenville, Thomasville, Andalusia, Opp, Chatom, Jackson, Bay Minette, Citronelle, Century, Jay, Munson, and Crestview.

MAIN CONCERN: FLASH FLOODING

The latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (above) shows much of our area picking up 2 to 3 inches of rain on Saturday before the end of the day, however I think these totals may be a bit lower than some of the actual totals that will likely happen. Isolated higher totals of 4-6″ of rain can’t be ruled out. The National Weather Service agrees with this assessment and has placed much of our local area in an Elevated Risk zone for flash flooding on Saturday (below).

RAIN/STORM TIMING

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely begin very early in the morning hours of Saturday. The low-end severe weather risk will start around midday (1PM) and last until a line of storms moves east of our area, probably no later than 11PM. Our public forecasts will reflect the severe weather timing window being from 1PM to 11PM, with the core risk happening from 4PM to 9PM. Again, it’s coastal areas that have the severe weather risk. The risk of flash flooding will last well into Sunday across the region as rain totals continue to add up. Below is the 3km North American Model view valid at 5PM on Saturday when a line of heavy rain and storms will likely be moving from west to east across our area.

CONTINUING COVERAGE

We will continue to post updates in the public-facing section of the RedZone Weather app in addition to our social media platforms today, tonight, and into Saturday. Let me know if you have any decision support needs, questions, or concerns. I look forward to seeing many of you in the Brewton, AL Christmas Parade this evening. You can’t miss our float! It’s big, it’s (quite) red, and it will feature me in a red suit with my friend, Buddy the Elf. Looking forward to it.