FORECAST ON TRACK: LOW IMPACT EVENT LOCALLY… RZW Exec partners, good Friday evening. The forecast for Tropical Storm Nestor remains right on track. Here are the headlines for Nestor:

1) Heavy rain will be possible locally this evening into Saturday morning, particularly in communities along, south, and east of Interstate 65. Rain totals will be greatest in parts of Okaloosa and southern Santa Rosa counties where rain has been ongoing all day so far. You can see in the radar image above, captured at 5:01PM, that scattered showers continue across our region.

2) The tornado risk across south Alabama and our 3 northwest Florida counties (Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa) remains at or near zero. There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes in the Florida Panhandle east of a line from Chipley to Santa Rosa Beach overnight. This includes places like Panama City, Marianna, Port Saint Joe, and Mexico Beach. Again, basically no tornado risk for our local area.

3) Gusty winds will be possible at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches (20-30 mph gusts) through Saturday morning. We note the tropical storm warning has been cancelled for all of Mobile, Baldwin, and Escambia (FL) counties. A Tropical Storm Warning continues only at the immediate coastline for Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties and points east in the Florida Panhandle.

4) Flash flooding is not expected to be a major issue locally. Rain totals will be in the 1-2” range with this event, meaning beneficial, drought-alleviating rain. Good news!

5) In summary, we will have some rain tonight and on Saturday locally, but major issues are not expected.

MONDAY STORMS… The Storm Prediction Center has modified the convective outlook for Monday and it’s good news for much of our local area. The overall threat region has clearly shifted farther to the north where the better combination of atmospheric shear, instability, and moisture will be. I expect SPC to introduce a lower-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk for Monday in future updates. We still aren’t completely “out of the woods” with this event, but I am encouraged by trends today. Have a good weekend and let me know if you need any decision support related to weather.

SEVERE WEATHER SETUP ON MONDAY… RZW Exec members, we have a potentially significant round of strong to severe storms set to develop across the Deep South on Monday, October 21. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a pretty uncommon Day 5 “slight risk zone.” These Level 2/slight risk zones are common in the Days 1-3 range, but are uncommon 5 days out. We will need to be on guard for the potential for tornadoes on Monday. Let’s get through this weak tropical storm tomorrow and Saturday, then we will really start focusing on the tornado potential Monday. Here is the post we will debut publicly shortly. As always (even this weekend!), let me know if you have decision support needs. Thanks for your continued support.

SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE MONDAY… This is totally separate from the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico! The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of Alabama, Mississippi, eastern Louisiana, and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone valid for Monday, October 21. This means that isolated severe storms, including a few tornadoes, will become possible Monday ahead of an advancing strong cold front. The entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida is included in this risk zone, meaning now is the time to make sure that you’re ready for this severe weather potential AND the peak of our secondary severe weather season (which typically begins around November 1 and lasts through December). We need to get through the tropical storm on Friday into Saturday before we really start focusing on this event, but I want you to have an early “heads up” and be thinking about where you’ll be on Monday in case tornadoes become more likely.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOTABLY HIGH… This is a severe weather risk that the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlooked five days out, meaning model agreement is high and confidence is growing that we will have at least isolated severe storms. We note that early indications point to the potential for all severe weather hazards (isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and perhaps large hail in the more discrete, isolated storms). SPC even notes the potential for supercell thunderstorm development in their discussion today. All of this should be a reminder that we need to keep close tabs on this event as it approaches. I’ll be working this weekend to bring you the very latest in the RedZone Weather app.

TELL FRIENDS TO BE INFORMED… We all have friends and family members (even yours truly!) that aren’t as “weather aware” as some of us. Especially as we get closer to this first potentially significant severe weather potential of our fall season, please join me in trying to help get the word out about the potential for severe weather, including tornadoes. This is the type of messaging we really want to push during the upcoming year: MOST folks are able to get tornado warnings, but a big chunk of folks that get the warnings don’t do anything about them. We encourage everyone to take proper tornado warning precautions if your area goes under a tornado warning.

PTC16/NESTOR UPDATE SOON… I am in the process of getting ready for our live video update discussing Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 (aka what will be Tropical Storm Nestor). We will start the live video by 8:30PM at the latest.

APP ALERTS… Be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app (redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download) and set up your customized alerts. Once you have the RZW app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner), then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the specific alerts you would like to receive. We have a solution for everyone – folks that want a lot of information and folks that may only want the important, rare alerts. Check out details in the Alerts tab today!

See you in the live video soon!

PTC16/NESTOR TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA… RZW Exec members, good Thursday evening. I have just finished a highly detailed forecast analysis concerning Potential Tropical Cyclone 16, aka what will likely become Tropical Storm Nestor in the hours ahead. The big headlines for our local area (south Alabama and northwest Florida) remain: 1) This will be a good, soaking rain event late Friday into Saturday for our region. 2 to 4 inches of rainfall in total will be possible, with the greater amounts near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. 2) The tornado risk remains very low, if not zero, in most spots locally as this system approaches. 3) Significant wind impacts are not expected across our inland areas. There could be gusty (30-50 mph) winds near the immediate coastline. Please see the highly detailed information below that I will be posting publicly shortly. Below is a map of the projected rainfall amounts for the next 3 days. As always, please let me know if you have any questions or concerns!

*EXTREMELY DETAILED* LOOK AT LOCAL PTC16/NESTOR IMPACTS… Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 continues to develop in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico as of 4:28PM on Thursday. The system is expected to become Tropical Storm (or Subtropical Storm) Nestor in the hours ahead. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance (Hurricane Hunter) aircraft is currently investigating the system to see if a low-level circulation center has formed. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for our entire local coastline as gusty winds may happen late Friday into Saturday as PTC16/Nestor approaches from the southwest. This will mostly be a rainmaker for south Alabama and northwest Florida and not much else, although gusty winds and coastal flooding will be possible at the immediate beach zones. This is a long, detailed post with an area-by-area analysis of what you can expect because of this developing tropical storm.

4PM THURSDAY ADVISORY… Maximum winds are at 40mph, meaning the system will take the name “Nestor” once a low-level circulation center forms. Further strengthening is anticipated in the hours ahead and PTC16/Nestor will likely be packing maximum sustained winds of 50-60 mph once it makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle late Friday or Saturday. 25.4° N and 86.4° W is where the center of circulation is located as of 4PM. That is 570 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River in southern Louisiana. Movement continues to be north-northeast at 9 mph. The system is expected to rapidly move toward the northern Gulf Coast in the hours ahead.

THURSDAY EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION ABOUT LOCAL IMPACTS… Heavy rain will become increasingly likely on Friday afternoon and evening, particularly across coastal counties. Rain will spread inland throughout the evening. There is some uncertainty regarding the timing of how quickly rain will move inland. This, obviously, has big ramifications for the high school football games that are scheduled for Friday evening. The good news is we’re not expecting tornadoes or high winds in our local area on Friday evening. There is a high chance that the center of PTC16/Nestor remains to the southeast of our local area as it approaches the Florida Panhandle on Friday, meaning the more volatile east side of the system would remain to our east. Thus, confidence is high that tornadoes and high winds won’t be an issue for our area unless significant forecast track changes happen. That is not expected to happen at this time. Gusty (30-50 mph) winds will be possible at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches Friday evening into Saturday. Wind impacts are not expected across inland areas at this time, but there will be a breeze from the east on Friday into Saturday. Confidence is high that rain amounts will be highest south and east of Interstate 65 on Friday into Saturday where 2-3” of rain in total could happen. This is a GOOD thing as this will help to alleviate drought conditions.

REMINDER: TROPICAL VS. SUBTROPICAL STORM… The best analogy I can give you about the differences in a tropical storm versus a subtropical storm involves vehicles. Think of a tropical storm as a Toyota RAV4. (That is what I drive.) A normal car gets you where you’re going by burning gasoline. Think of a subtropical storm as a hybrid Toyota RAV4. A hybrid vehicle uses additional technology to get better fuel economy, but it is still a car. Both tropical and subtropical storms have pretty much the SAME impacts for coastal areas: Heavy rain, gusty winds, and coastal flooding. The difference is tropical systems have a pure warm core center, while subtropical storms generally don’t (at least at first). It’s a super technical definition, but the big takeaway I want you to remember is that IMPACTS are the same!

COUNTY-BY-COUNTY FORECAST…

The following county-by-county forecasts are based on the CURRENT projected path of PTC16/Nestor, showing a landfall as a moderate tropical storm near Panama City, Florida on Saturday morning. Future advisories may cause the following impacts to have to be adjusted upward or downward, depending on the exact track of the storm. In addition, please see the specific area forecasts below the county-by-county analysis below.

OKALOOSA COUNTY, FL…

Locations: Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Mary Esther, Wright, VPS, Eglin AFB, Crestview, Deerland, Campton, Auburn (FL), Baker, Holt, Milligan, Laurel Hill.

Wind Speed: 35-55mph winds possible, with gusts up to 65mph. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and along Choctawhatchee Bay. Wind speeds likely to be substantially less in inland communities. Areas near Fort Walton Beach and Destin may have slightly higher wind gusts, near 45-65mph.

Timing: High wind gusts could begin as early as 9PM Friday and extend to Noon Saturday. Core risk time will be Midnight to 8AM Saturday.

Rain: 2-5”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Destin, Fort Walton Beach, and Niceville.

Tornado Risk: Low.

Official Products: Tropical Storm Warning.

SANTA ROSA COUNTY, FL…

Locations: Navarre, Jay, Milton, Pace, Gulf Breeze, Harold, Whiting Field, Chumuckla, New York, Brownsdale, Berrydale, Munson, Fidelis, McClellan, Mulat, Bagdad, Pine Bluff, Avalon Beach, Garcon Point, Whitfield, Allentown.

Wind Speed: 30-50mph winds possible, with gusts up to 60mph. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and along the bays. Wind speeds likely to be substantially less in inland communities. Areas near Gulf Breeze and Navarre may have slightly higher wind gusts, near 40-60mph.

Timing: High wind gusts could begin as early as 9PM Friday and extend to Noon Saturday. Core risk time will be Midnight to 8AM Saturday.

Rain: 2-4”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Gulf Breeze and Navarre.

Tornado Risk: Low.

Official Products: Tropical Storm Warning.

ESCAMBIA COUNTY, FL…

Locations: Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Key, Warrington, Myrtle Grove, Molino, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Century, Ensley, Gonzalez, Cantonment, Quintette, McDavid.

Wind Speed: 25-45mph winds possible, with gusts up to 55mph. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and along the bays. Wind speeds likely to be substantially less in inland communities. Areas near Pensacola Beach may have slightly higher wind gusts, near 40-60mph.

Rain: 2-4”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Pensacola, Warrington, Perdido Key, and Pensacola Beach.

Tornado Risk: Low.

Official Products: Tropical Storm Warning.

BALDWIN COUNTY, AL…

Locations: Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Fort Morgan, Magnolia Springs, Foley, Elberta, Elsanor, Robertsdale, Summerdale, Silverhill, Montrose, Loxley, Stapleton, Bay Minette, Stockton, Rabun, Perdido, Tensaw, Point Clear.

Wind Speed: 20-40mph winds possible. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and along the bays. Wind speeds likely to be substantially less in inland communities. Areas near Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, and Fort Morgan may have slightly higher wind gusts, near 30-40mph.

Rain: 2-4”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, and Fort Morgan.

Tornado Risk: Very Low.

Official Products: Tropical Storm Warning for areas south of Interstate 10.

MOBILE COUNTY, AL…

Locations: Mobile, Prichard, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Creola, Satsuma, Saraland, Calvert, Wilmer, West Mobile, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Alabama Port, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Crichton, Tanner Williams, Tillmans Corner, Chunchula, Grand Bay.

Wind Speed: 20-40mph winds possible. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and along the bays. Wind speeds likely to be substantially less in inland communities. Areas near Bayou La Batre, Coden, and Dauphin Island may have slightly higher wind gusts, near 30-40mph.

Rain: 2-3”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Bayou La Batre, Coden, and Dauphin Island.

Tornado Risk: Very Low.

Official Products: Tropical Storm Warning for areas south of Interstate 10.

COVINGTON COUNTY, AL…

Locations: Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Rose Hill, Onycha, Red Oak, Green Bay, Straughn, Red Level, Gantt, Clearview, Carolina, Pleasant Home, Wing, Sanford, Libertyville, Eoda, Horn Hill, Lockhart, River Falls, Loango, and Fairfield.

Wind Speed: 20-30mph wind gusts possible at times. Higher winds likely to happen in the southeastern part of the county near Florala. Wind speeds likely to be less in NW part of county near Red Level.

Rain: 1-2”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Florala and Wing.

Tornado Risk: Very Low.

ESCAMBIA (AL), CONECUH, BUTLER, MONROE, CLARKE, WASHINGTON, WILCOX, AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES…

Locations: Brewton, East Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Riverview, Poarch, Huxford, Wallace, Barnett Crossroads, Pineview, Wawbeek, Canoe, Nokomis, Appleton, Kirkland, Dixie, Roberts, Damascus, Pollard/McCall, Evergreen, Castleberry, Owassa, Repton, Lenox, Range, Burnt Corn, Lyeffion, Centerville, Johnsonville, Brooklyn, Paul, Melrose, Old Sparta, Jay Villa, Belleville, Greenville, Georgiana, Chapman, Bolling, Grace, Garland, Oaky Streak, Daisy, Halso Mill, Starlington, Forest Home, Monroeville, Excel, Uriah, Frisco City, Megargal, Mineola, Chrysler, Goodway, Peterman, Tunnel Springs, Beatrice, Riley Crossing, Perdue Hill, Mexia, Scratch Ankle, Hybart, Franklin, Eliska, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Fulton, Carlton, Gainestown, Gosport, Whatley, Scyrene, Springfield, Chilton, Tallahatta Springs, Bashi, Woods Bluff, Campbell, Zimco, Toddtown, Salitpa, Suggsville, Alma, Dickinson, West Bend, Winn, Walker Springs, Chatom, Leroy, McIntosh, Millry, Deer Park, Vinegar Bend, Fruitdale, Yellow Pine, Copeland, Yarbo, Jordan, Bigbee, St. Stephens, Tibbie, Sims Chapel, Sunflower, Malcolm, Camden, Pine Hill, Oak Hill, Millers Ferry, Butler, Needham, Toxey, Pennington, Silas, and Gilbertown.

Wind Speed: Breezy conditions are expected with winds of 10-20 mph at times. High winds and wind impacts are currently not anticipated in these inland areas.

Rain: 1-3”, with the greater rain amounts farther to the south and lesser rain amounts farther to the north.

Tornado Risk: Very Low, if not zero in most spots.

WIREGRASS & SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…

Locations: Dothan, Enterprise, Elba, Geneva, Abbeville, Ozark, Daleville, Cottonwood, Samson, Coffee Springs, and surrounding areas.

Wind Speed: Wind Speed: 20-30mph wind gusts possible at times. Higher winds likely to happen in the southeastern part of the region near Dothan and Cottonwood in Houston County. Wind speeds likely to be less in NW part of the region near Elba.

Rain: 1-3”, with the greater rain amounts farther to the south and lesser rain amounts farther to the north.

Tornado Risk: Very Low.

FLORIDA PANHANDLE (WALTON COUNTY & EASTWARD)…

Locations: Panama City, Port St. Joe, Marianna, Blountstown, Wewahitchka, Freeport, Bonifay, Ponce De Leon, Santa Rosa Beach, Seaside, Rosemary Beach, Lynn Haven, Springfield, Parker, Altha, and surrounding areas.

Wind Speed: 40-60mph winds possible, with gusts up to 65mph. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and along area bays. Wind speeds likely to be less in inland communities. Areas near Panama City, Port St. Joe, and Mexico Beach may have slightly higher wind gusts, near 50-65mph.

Timing: High wind gusts could begin as early as 9PM Friday and extend to Noon Saturday. Core risk time will be Midnight to 8AM Saturday, based on the latest forecast data as of 4PM Thursday.

Rain: 2-5”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near the immediate beaches.

Tornado Risk: Tornadoes will be possible along and east of the center of circulation where PTC16/Nestor moves onshore. This could include Bay, Gulf, Calhoun counties, and points east. Be ready for possible tornado warnings in these areas.

Official Products: Tropical Storm Warning for the entirety of this stretch of coastline. There is a Storm Surge Warning in effect for areas at and east of Indian Pass, FL.

APP… Download the RedZone Weather app to continue to receive our constant updates. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

More updates will be posted this evening! Let me know if you have any questions.

TROPICAL STORM PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP IN GULF SOON… RZW Exec members, good Wednesday afternoon! There is a growing chance that we will have a tropical storm develop in the western Gulf of Mexico in the next 48 hours. Regardless of if formal development happens, this will be a rainmaker for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Other significant impacts are less certain. There is a chance (depending on the exact track) that we will have to be concerned with a few isolated tornadoes and gusty winds near the beach zones. We can say with high confidence that this will NOT be a big deal, in terms of hazardous wind impacts, for inland areas.

Please let me know if you have any questions or need decision support for this event. Thank you for your time and for your support!

Below is the public post that will debut imminently in the public-facing home/refresh tab of the RZWeather app.

INCREASING CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IN GULF; LOCAL IMPACTS LIKELY… Odds are increasing that a tropical or subtropical storm will form in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in or near the Bay of Campeche in the next few days. The National Hurricane Center suggests there is now a 50% chance of this happening through Saturday. Regardless of if formal development happens, this points to increased rain chances for parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida this weekend into early next week.

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS IN SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… Regardless of if this tropical disturbance acquires formal tropical or subtropical characteristics, heavy rain will be likely at times this weekend across our area. The greater chances of rain will clearly happen closer to the immediate Alabama and northwest Florida beach zones. Depending on the exact track of this developing system, there also could be gusty (30-50mph) winds at the immediate coastal areas, isolated tornadoes across the region, and potentially isolated instances of flash flooding. Significant wind issues inland are not expected, as this will likely be a fairly “weak” tropical/subtropical storm. “Weak” is subjective, and there still could be significant impacts closer to the coast, however.

LOCAL IMPACTS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON TRACK… Most of the model guidance late last evening and this morning suggests that there is a growing chance that the center of this tropical system will either move over our area from southwest to northeast OR perhaps make landfall to our east in the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend region. It is too early to know exactly where this system will track, but that will determine quite a bit about what impacts any given area experiences. Stay tuned over the next few days as we continue to monitor this system.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TROPICAL STORM… Anytime we have a tropical system in one of the peak hurricane season months in the Gulf, there is always a chance we could have some surprises in store. Long-time viewers and readers remember the rapid intensification that happened with Hurricane Michael (up to category 5 status right before landfall). Hurricane Opal was also a rapidly intensifying October hurricane. The good news is I am NOT seeing anything to suggest that this system will become a hurricane before landfall. Could that change? Yes, and that’s why we monitor the tropics so intently. However, confidence remains high that this will be a weak or moderate tropical storm at the time of landfall in a few days. The high-end scenario points to a moderate tropical storm. The low-end scenario points to a tropical disturbance with quite a bit of rainfall.

CHILLY FOR TROY VS. SOUTH ALABAMA GAME TONIGHT… The South Alabama Jaguars travel to Troy to take on the Troy Trojans in football on this Wednesday evening. The game kicks off at 7PM CDT and will be televised nationally on ESPN2. Most of the rain and storms will have long moved out of our region to the south into the Gulf of Mexico by that point. I expect the game to be dry with chilly temperatures in place! Kickoff temperatures will be in the 61-64° range, although the wind out of the northwest will probably make the air temperature feel a bit colder than it actually is. Temperatures will decline into the 50s by the end of the game.

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY… The cold front moving by our region today will pave the way for winds out of the northwest at 5-10mph this evening. This will be a cool, dry wind that will rapidly lower humidity levels and temperatures. Some spots north of U.S. Highway 84 on Thursday morning may be in the upper-40s! I expect most of our area to be in the 50s for overnight lows both on Thursday and Friday mornings. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the 70s.

FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL FORECAST… This forecast will greatly depend on the future track of the tropical system discussed above. If we get more rain and are on the eastern side of the developing area of low pressure (whether it is a tropical storm or not), there is a chance we may have to increase rain chances for the Friday night football games. If, however, we’re on the western side of the system, that would point to a potentially drier solution. For now, we’ll call it a 20-30% chance of showers and storms Friday evening with temperatures in the 65-70° range.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I’ll have another update about this developing tropical feature later this evening. Before that, if you want shorter, more frequent updates, join me in the RedZone Weather app for the latest. Have a nice Wednesday evening!

RZW Exec partners, good evening! It’s been quite some time since our local area has had any formal severe weather risk. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has introduced a low-end, marginal, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone that includes much of our area valid for tomorrow (Tuesday, October 15). This means that most spots will not have any severe weather issues, but a rogue severe storm or two cannot be ruled out. The overall tornado risk with this system will remain quite low, but not exactly zero for our inland communities. This will be a beneficial rainmaker for much of our area. Let’s look at details…

HEAVY RAIN & STORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ON TUESDAY… The big headline for this weather system remains: RAIN! Beneficial, drought relief rain. Most spots will have some rain on Tuesday. Heavy rain will be possible at times, especially across the northern fringe of our local area. There is a low-end risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two in the stronger storms. Again, for most spots, this is a beneficial rain event. The overall chance of severe weather for any given spot remains low.

LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK… It has been several weeks since we have had any type of significant severe weather episode. For those of you that may be new to RedZone Weather, we rely heavily on the standard Storm Prediction Center convective outlooks that are issued multiple times daily when there is a severe weather potential. “TORcon” and other proprietary tornado index values are used by some companies, but around here, we use the industry-standard convective outlook issued by SPC. For Tuesday, October 15, our local area is included in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone. This means that a few isolated stronger or marginally severe thunderstorms may happen, but the overall severe weather risk remains low.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS ON TUESDAY… Heavy rain that could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding will be the main concern on Tuesday. In addition, there is a low-end chance that some of the stronger storms may produce damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado or two. There are several factors working against the potential tornado risk on Tuesday, including (but not limited to) lack of instability once storms “work over” the atmosphere and low lapse rates. As always, if we happen to have any tornado warnings in our primary coverage area, we will provide uninterrupted live video coverage on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app in the Live tab.

INLAND COMMUNITIES HAVE LOW-END RISK OF STRONGER STORMS… Pretty much all of us minus the immediate beach zones have the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk in place for Tuesday. Areas north of Interstate 10 in Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties are involved in the low-end risk zone. This means that ALL of Escambia (AL), Conecuh, Butler, Covington, Monroe, Clarke, Washington, and Choctaw counties are included as well. We note that parts of central and southeast Alabama are also included in the Level 1 risk zone, including Montgomery, Auburn, Selma, Demopolis, Camden, Enterprise, Dothan, Troy, Geneva, and Eufaula.

RAIN & STORM TIMING… While heavy rain could happen at any time on Tuesday, the focus for the stronger to severe storms will happen mainly between Noon and 6PM. This is because storms will have more instability to work with in that time period compared to the late evening and early morning hours.

NEXT UPDATE… Since widespread severe weather is not expected, this will be the only RZW Exec alert you receive for this particular event. As always, please let me know if you have any decision support-related concerns or questions. I am a text or phone call away. My public updates will continue in the RedZone Weather app this evening, tonight, and on Tuesday as needed.

Have a great Monday evening!

RZW EXEC – TROPICAL STORM LIKELY IN GULF THIS WEEKEND… RZW Exec partners, good morning! There is a growing chance (now up to 60%) that a tropical storm will form in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Local impacts will largely be limited to heavy rain at times Sunday into Monday, based on current model guidance. Please see the detailed range scenarios below of what could happen as this tropical disturbance develops. As always, please let me know if you have any specific decision support needs or concerns. Thanks for your support! Here is the post we will debut publicly within the next hour…

60% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPING IN GULF THIS WEEKEND… The National Hurricane Center continues to increase the probability/chance that a tropical storm will form in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. There is now a 60% chance that a tropical storm will form near or just west of the Florida Peninsula this weekend as the tropical disturbance branded as INVEST 95L moves northwestward. There is high model agreement/confidence in the general idea that this tropical disturbance or tropical storm will move northwest toward northwest Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana in the days ahead. Unfortunately, we don’t know the specifics just yet. There could be impacts other than rain, like gusty winds at the coastline, isolated tornadoes, and coastal flooding, but we don’t have a firm grip of IF or WHEN these impacts will be possible just yet. Why? Largely because these impacts depend heavily on the ultimate strength of the system. There will be a chance of local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida from this disturbance or tropical storm. Let’s look at a few midday Wednesday notes…

UNCERTAINTY SCENARIOS BREAKDOWN… While there is quite a bit of uncertainty about specifics concerning INVEST 95L, we’re going to try something new today to convey this information to you. Let’s look at the high-end scenario of what would happen if the system is stronger than expected, the MOST likely scenario (mid-range of the model guidance), and the low-end scenario of what would happen if the system is weaker than expected. Let me know if you like this breakdown and if it is clear and easy-to-understand.

HIGH-END SCENARIO: STRONG TROPICAL STORM… The intensity models simply do not show this system rapidly intensifying into a hurricane at this time. Good news! Instead, some of the outlier, higher intensity scenarios point to a tropical storm making landfall along the Florida Panhandle coast as a moderate tropical storm with maximum winds offshore of 50-60 mph. Under this scenario, there would be a slightly higher risk of isolated tornadoes near the immediate coastal zones NEAR and EAST of where the center of circulation makes landfall. Gusty winds would be likely at the beach zones near and east of the center. Inland impacts would largely be limited to heavy downpours of rain at times.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: WEAK TROPICAL STORM WITH COASTAL IMPACTS… The most likely scenario of what will happen with INVEST 95L is that the system will continue to move northwest, perhaps crossing the southern part of the Florida Peninsula near Miami in a day or two then emerging over the eastern Gulf on Friday. Beyond that, the system is expected to move northwest toward the Florida Panhandle, south Alabama, and perhaps southern Mississippi and east Louisiana. Most intensity models ramp the system up to a tropical storm with maximum winds of 40-50 mph. This scenario would largely be beneficial for much of south Alabama and northwest Florida as the system would be a good rainmaker for our region. Other impacts could potentially include some coastal flooding, perhaps an isolated tornado threat depending on the strength of the system, and gusty winds at the immediate beach zones. No wind impacts inland would be expected under this forecast/scenario.

LOW-END SCENARIO: AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/DISTURBANCE… There IS still a significant chance that INVEST 95L never develops into a formal tropical storm. What could happen is the system remains sheared and weak as it moves northwest toward our area. Regardless of if formal development happens, we still would need to call for higher rain chances for Sunday into Monday. This scenario would feature scattered to numerous showers and storms with breezy conditions at the immediate coastline. Other impacts, like isolated tornadoes and coastal flooding, would probably be mitigated since the system would be weaker.

WEDNESDAY MIDDAY DISCUSSION – POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS… This has not changed since the morning video update: There is growing confidence that we will have quite a bit of rain as we go into Sunday and Monday as this area of low pressure moves northwest. The latest model guidance suggests the potential exists for heavy rain at times both on Sunday and on Monday. Depending on the exact track, forward speed, and strength of this system, there could be a risk of isolated tornadoes, gusty winds near the immediate coastline, and heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. Please check back with me over the next few days as we monitor the evolving specific risks (or lack of risks!) as this tropical area of low pressure continues moving northwest. I will have plenty of updates posted in the RedZone Weather app.

TROPICAL WAVES IN THE ATLANTIC… We are also monitoring two tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles that both have a low chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next 5 days. We will continue to monitor these areas of concern, but clearly, the disturbance approaching the Gulf of Mexico will take priority in our focus over the next few days since local impacts appear possible as we go into the early part of next week.

APP… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

I’ll have more updates later today in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Wednesday afternoon!

WATCHING THE TROPICS – RZW EXEC UPDATE… RZW Exec partners, good morning! There is a growing chance that tropical storm formation may happen in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend as a tropical area of low pressure approaches our local area from the south. While it’s too early to know specific potential impacts, there is a growing chance that our area will have heavy rain at times on Sunday into Monday because of this system. We will push this information publicly in the next hour or so.

20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND… An area of low pressure currently situated near the southeastern Bahamas will move into the Gulf of Mexico where it could become a tropical storm this weekend. There is a growing chance that some level of local impacts will happen in south Alabama and northwest Florida, regardless of if the system develops into a formal tropical storm. We still have plenty of question marks, but models have been pretty consistent over the last day or two suggesting that an area of low pressure or tropical storm will likely make landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast in the latter half of the weekend into early next week. Specific local impacts will largely depend on the strength of the system and the exact track of the center of circulation IF formal tropical development happens. Let’s talk details…

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS IN SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… It is far too early to know if hazardous conditions will happen in coastal areas of our region, but I can tell you with growing confidence that we will have quite a bit of rain as we go into Sunday and Monday as this area of low pressure moves northwest. The latest model guidance suggests the potential exists for heavy rain at times both on Sunday and on Monday. Depending on the exact track, forward speed, and strength of this system, there could be a risk of isolated tornadoes, gusty winds near the immediate coastline, and heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. Please check back with me over the next few days as we monitor the evolving specific risks (or lack of risks!) as this tropical area of low pressure continues moving northwest. I will have plenty of updates posted in the RedZone Weather app.

LOW PRESSURE NOT LIKELY TO DEVELOP UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK… The tropical disturbance that will move into the Gulf of Mexico probably WON’T develop into a tropical storm until it moves just south of or over the southern Florida Peninsula and emerges into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions over The Bahamas are currently not favorable for this system to develop, but again, the environment over the Gulf IS slightly more favorable. Heavy rainfall will happen across parts of The Bahamas and south Florida later this week as this system approaches the Gulf.

TROPICAL WAVES IN THE ATLANTIC… We’re also monitoring two tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles that both have a low chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next 5 days. We will continue to monitor these areas of concern, but clearly, the disturbance approaching the Gulf of Mexico will take priority in our focus over the next few days since local impacts appear possible as we go into the early part of next week.

RZW EXEC: DORIAN 2PM UPDATE… RZW Exec partners, good Thursday afternoon! I am encouraged by model data flowing in this afternoon in that there has been a consistent trend all day pointing to Hurricane Dorian remaining well to the east of our local area. We’re not completely out of the potential for danger just yet, but the data suggests we are beginning to get there. The latest run of the ECMWF/Euro model paints a bleak picture for basically all of the Florida Peninsula from Miami northward to Gainesville. The American-based GFS model has trended farther south, followed by a similar sharp, right, northerly turn like the Euro. While this is bad news for our friends in the Florida Peninsula, it’s GOOD news for Alabama and northwest Florida! Nearly all major weather models keep the core of Dorian well to the east of our local area as of 2PM today. Model data can and will change, but the trend for our area over the last 12-18 hours has been in the right direction. Below are some of the paragraphs I’ll debut publicly around 4:30PM. My next live video update will happen at 8PM tonight. Hope you’ll join us for that! As always, let me know if you have any specific questions, concerns, or decision support needs. Below is an image capture of the ECMWF/Euro model valid at 7AM CDT on Friday.

DORIAN LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN; COULD BE CAT. 4 OR 5 EARLY NEXT WEEK… The National Hurricane Center has revised the intensity forecast of Hurricane even higher today, suggesting that the system may be a dangerous category 4 hurricane at the time of a potential landfall along the Florida Peninsula early next week. Dorian continues to organize in a way that is supportive of potentially extreme impacts across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Also of note, the official forecast has slowed somewhat, indicating Dorian may significant slow its forward speed as it approaches Florida. This could allow for more intensification prior to landfall. We are certainly not “out of the woods” just yet in south Alabama or northwest Florida, but the model data over the last 6-12 hours has been encouraging. The latest run of the reliable ECMWF/Euro model is in, essentially showing Dorian significantly affecting the Florida Peninsula before racing northward. Most models show a sharp, right, northerly turn before, at, or shortly after landfall in the Florida Peninsula. If you missed the text discussion this morning, I’ve modified the paragraphs below slightly to add the latest updates.

THURSDAY EARLY EVENING ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL LOCAL (SOUTH AL & NW FL) IMPACTS FROM DORIAN… The trends early this evening are encouraging for Alabama and northwest Florida, with most weather models continuing to keep Dorian well to the east of our local area. Unfortunately, the data is not conclusive enough to be able to give anything close to an “all clear” just yet. IF model trends continue to show a sharp, right, northerly turn when or shortly after Dorian reaches Florida, we can begin to rule out local impacts from the system. We are NOT there yet! It is critical that we all remain diligent and closely monitor the progress of this hurricane as it continues to strengthen and move northwest. Impacts in the Florida Peninsula have the potential to be extensive. Beyond that, it’s impossible to know if or when other areas will have major impacts. We will get another run of the ECMWF/Euro model overnight with more runs of the GFS intermittently in the coming hours.

EXTREME HURRICANE IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN EAST FLORIDA… The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center says that Dorian will likely approach the Atlantic/eastern coast of Florida as a very dangerous category 4, major hurricane on Sunday into Monday. Interests in and near West Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie, Fort Pierce, Vero Beach, Palm Bay, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Titusville, Merritt Island, Orlando, New Smyrna Beach, Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, Palm Coast, St. Augustine, Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, Brunswick (GA), and Savannah (GA) should CLOSELY monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane setup. Rapid intensification is not out of the question, and the intensity forecast of Dorian may have to be adjusted higher in future forecasts! Don’t get so caught up in the category number (whether it’s a 3, 4, or 5) that you forget that potentially EXTREME impacts could happen in some of these areas!

RZW EXEC: DORIAN UPDATE… RZW Exec partners, good Wednesday afternoon! Unfortunately, we just don’t have a concrete answer yet on whether Hurricane Dorian will impact south Alabama or northwest Florida. After some encouraging model runs over the last 24 hours, the latest runs of the models have been totally discouraging with direct local impacts indicated. The good news is this scenario can and will change in the coming hours as we continue to get more data in on this increasingly dangerous hurricane. Regardless of if local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida occur, confidence continues to grow that the Florida Peninsula will endure direct impacts from a major hurricane on Sunday into Monday. Below you’ll see two paragraphs we will debut later this evening followed by a recap of my midday public post. As always, please let me know if you have specific questions, concerns, or decision support needs. The graphic below will debut publicly around 4PM.

HURRICANE DORIAN LIKELY TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND; GULF IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN… Hurricane Dorian continues to gain strength this evening as it emerges over the warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Model trends over the last 6-8 hours have been discouraging for our local area, to say the least, although as I often caution, we need to focus on the overall trends and not individual model runs. The Florida Peninsula has a very high chance of having direct impacts from Dorian when the system will very likely be a major hurricane this weekend into Monday. Beyond that, we still do not have a firm grasp of where Dorian ends up.

SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA: POTENTIAL DORIAN IMPACTS DISCUSSION… The big takeaway as far as potential local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida remains that we still do not know whether direct local impacts from Dorian will happen, although the latest model runs point to that being still in the realm of possibilities. Earlier today, I mentioned that the Euro/ECMWF model had featured encouraging trends showing the system remaining to the east of our area, cautioning that further model changes were likely. Indeed, those changes happened. The latest run (12Z) of the Euro/ECMWF model shows a substantial (perhaps category 2 or 3) hurricane slamming into south Florida followed by an emergence over the southern Gulf of Mexico then a rapid turn to the northwest with a potential landfall as a major hurricane in northwest Florida late next week. That is ONE idea from ONE run of ONE model, but I type that out to say: We are, by NO means, “out of the woods” just yet. It’s important to comparatively note that the GFS and Canadian models show a much different scenario, with Dorian making a Florida Peninsula landfall much farther north then very slowly weakening in the days that follow with little to no local impacts in south Alabama or northwest Florida. Again, the big headline here is: Please keep checking back with me for forecast updates in the days ahead. The situation is fluid and evolving rapidly.

DORIAN CURRENT INFO… Hurricane Dorian is packing maximum sustained winds of 75 mph with higher gusts near the center of the storm. As of 1PM CDT, the center of Dorian was located at 18.3N and 65.0W. Minimum central pressure is down to 997 millibars, indicating strengthening is happening. Dorian is moving northwest at 13 mph. We note the center is directly over St. Croix and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

CENTER OF DORIAN MISSES PUERTO RICO TO THE EAST; INTENSIFICATION LIKELY… 2-3 days ago, there was some hope that the core of Dorian would be disrupted by the high, rugged terrain of Hispaniola. Yesterday, there was hope that Dorian would be somewhat disrupted by the hills and mountains of Puerto Rico. Today, it is clear that the center of Dorian will miss the land areas to the east and have an unhindered path to strengthening over the next 24-72 hours. Definitely not the scenario that anyone wanted. Land interaction will have very little to no effect on the developing storm. Dorian will continue to emerge over the warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean in the next 12 hours as it continues moving to the northwest.

WATCHES & WARNINGS DISCUSSION… A Hurricane Warning continues for all of the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, and Vieques & Culebra. Puerto Rico continues to be under a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning. Hurricane Watches will be needed for the Turks & Caicos islands and parts of The Bahamas later this evening or on Thursday. Hurricane Watches will become necessary for parts of the Atlantic coast of Florida probably on Friday or Saturday morning.

MAJOR HURRICANE IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN EAST FLORIDA… The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center now states that Dorian will likely approach the Atlantic/eastern coast of Florida as a category 3, major hurricane on Sunday into Monday. Interests in and near West Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie, Fort Pierce, Vero Beach, Palm Bay, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Titusville, Merritt Island, Orlando, New Smyrna Beach, Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, Palm Coast, St. Augustine, Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, Brunswick (GA), and Savannah (GA) should CLOSELY monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane setup. Rapid intensification is not out of the question, and the intensity forecast of Dorian may have to be adjusted higher in future forecasts!

APP ALERTS… Many consistent updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. Everyone should toggle ON Medium-Level Alerts. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

DORIAN LIKELY TO IMPACT FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND… RZW Exec partners, good Tuesday afternoon to each of you. Tropical Storm Dorian is moving northwest in the eastern Caribbean Sea. There is high confidence in the track forecast, as far as where Dorian is headed. There is *VERY* low confidence in the intensity forecast, as far as just how strong or how weak Dorian will be in 3-5 days. Basically, the National Hurricane Center is “splitting the difference” between the dynamical model output and intensity model guidance. The dynamical models show a much weaker system moving into the Florida Peninsula this weekend. The intensity guidance shows a category 1, 2, or 3 hurricane moving into the Florida Peninsula this weekend. Obviously the impacts in those two scenarios are quite different. We will have a much better grasp about the future intensity of Dorian after the system moves by Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

LOCAL IMPACTS IN SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA… It is far too early to know IF Dorian will cause local impacts in Alabama or northwest Florida. At the moment, based on the latest model data, it seems like any impacts will remain to the east of our local area, but that is ONE idea subject to change over the next few days. We all need to closely monitor this system carefully in the days ahead.

Let me know if you have any questions, concerns, or decision support needs. Have a great Tuesday evening!

RZW EXEC: TRACKING DORIAN… RZW Exec members, good evening! Tropical Storm Dorian is gaining strength this evening as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. While it is still far too early to know whether local impacts will happen, model trends have been a bit discouraging today. We note that the ECMWF/Euro model has started flirting with the idea that Dorian may cross the Florida Peninsula and move into the northeastern Gulf by early next week. Again, that’s ONE idea on the table at this point. There is still a high chance that our local area won’t ever have to deal with this system. Below is the information I’ll be publishing publicly in the next hour or so. We will need to closely monitor this system in the days ahead. I’ll have updates for you here in RZW Exec as needed. Let me know if you have any questions!

DORIAN COULD IMPACT FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND; GULF IMPACTS UNCERTAIN… Tropical Storm Dorian continues to strengthen as it approaches the Lesser Antilles on this Monday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 60mph. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows Dorian becoming a hurricane over the eastern Caribbean Sea before impacting Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday into Thursday. Hurricane Watches have been posted for parts of the Lesser Antilles with a Tropical Storm Watch now in effect for all of Puerto Rico. While impacts in south Florida and/or central Florida appear more likely this evening, it’s still completely unknown whether Dorian will move into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. We have a lot more questions than answers at this point. Let’s discuss what we do know AND what we don’t know just yet…

LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION FOR SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… No one (and again, NO ONE) knows whether Gulf Coast impacts will happen because of Tropical Storm Dorian just yet. It is noteworthy that many more models are now flirting with the idea that Dorian may cross the Florida Peninsula and enter the Gulf of Mexico in 6-7 days. Is that a certainty? No, nowhere close, but again that idea is on the table at this point. So much will depend on the future strength and size of the system, and unfortunately we don’t have a good grip on that info until after Dorian passes or crosses Hispaniola and/or Puerto Rico in 2-3 days. I would encourage everyone reading this to check back with me multiple times daily over the next several days for the latest information. I hope we’re able to get more information that will completely rule out local impacts, but that has not been the trend so far today. We’ll keep you posted in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download.

PROJECTED PATH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH; INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY LOW… There is high confidence that Tropical Storm Dorian will continue moving in a west-northwest or northwesterly fashion in the days ahead. That puts Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic in the crosshairs from what could be a category 1 hurricane. As we discussed in detail in this morning’s forecast video, so much of the long range forecast depends on what happens in the short range. I mentioned this morning that if Dorian skirts along the northern periphery of the cone of uncertainty, the system may be stronger. That has been reflected in the forecast updates from the National Hurricane Center today. The cone of uncertainty has been adjusted slightly to the right/north. This means the system will be in a more conducive environment as it moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea with less atmospheric shear. It’s also notable that the latest cone of uncertainty shows the center line missing or nearly missing the land interaction with Hispaniola. That means the core of Dorian MAY be largely intact when it emerges over the southwestern Atlantic. The big takeaway here is that we still don’t know exactly how strong or weak Dorian will be when it gets into the Atlantic and potentially takes aim at southern Florida. Hispaniola may break the system apart completely, but trends today have pointed to the system perhaps being a bit stronger as it marches northwest.

MAXIMUM WINDS NOW AT 60MPH; DORIAN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST… The 7PM CDT advisory for Tropical Storm Dorian has just been issued. The center of the storm is located at 12.8 North and 59.1 West. Maximum winds have increased from earlier today and are now pegged at 60 mph, making Dorian a strong tropical storm. Hurricane force winds start at 74 mph. The storm is moving west-northwest at 14 mph, meaning Dorian will come very close or pass right over Barbados in the next 12-24 hours. Minimum central pressure is down to 1002 millibars.

HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST. LUCIA; TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO… St. Lucia is under a Hurricane Watch this evening as there is a potential for Dorian to ramp up to hurricane status before crossing the Lesser Antilles. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Dominica, Grenada, and Saba & St. Eustatius. Those are some of the smaller islands in the Lesser Antilles. The entirety of Puerto Rico is also under a Tropical Storm Watch. I wouldn’t be shocked if a Hurricane Watch is needed for Puerto Rico and parts of the Dominican Republic on Tuesday. If Dorian survives and the current forecast verifies, Hurricane Watches may be needed for parts of the Atlantic coast of Florida by Thursday or Friday.

NEXT UPDATE IN VIDEO AT 7:15AM… I’ll have the next full, detailed forecast video along with a long form text discussion uploaded by 7:15AM on Tuesday. Please check back with me for the very latest. More updates will be posted this evening and tomorrow throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app.

Please let me know if you have any questions… Have a good Monday evening!

TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO FORM THEN WEAKEN… RZW Exec members, good Thursday afternoon! The tropics are increasingly more active, but there is good news for our local area. We’re watching two separate tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean. The tropical wave near south Florida and The Bahamas probably WON’T develop into a tropical storm as it lifts northward and ultimately northeast out to sea. The other tropical wave, branded as INVEST 96L, is about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. That is the system that has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next few days as it continues moving westward. Let me emphasize: At the moment, there is no imminent threat of tropical impacts in Alabama or northwest Florida. Early model trends show INVEST 96L recurving into the Atlantic, perhaps east of Florida.

Again, at this point, I am not expecting any issues because of either of these tropical “hotspots.” I’ll keep you posted ib the days ahead as needed. See the public post, below, that will debut later this evening. Have a good rest of your day!

TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO FORM THIS WEEKEND IN ATLANTIC… The tropical wave currently situated about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa continues to slowly become more organized. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there is a 70% chance that this tropical wave will strengthen into a tropical storm this weekend. While it is far too early to give any concrete guidance on where this storm will ultimately end up, there are two bits of good news to discuss this evening. Read on for a full, detailed tropical update…

INVEST 96L IN THE ATLANTIC LIKELY TO DEVELOP… There is a 7 out of 10 chance that we’ll have a tropical storm moving toward the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico by Sunday. The system is currently a tropical wave producing an area of disturbed weather about 1,100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles/Leeward Islands. The system has been branded as INVEST 96L. Upper-level winds will become favorable for the development of a tropical storm this weekend, but the good news is shear is forecast to increase ahead of the developing system early next week.

FUTURE INTENSITY ALL OVER THE BOARD… We don’t have a good grasp, at this point, of just how weak or how strong INVEST 96L will ultimately be. Some of the model guidance last evening suggested that the system could ramp up to a category 1 hurricane, but vast majority of the model guidance today has suggested that the system may not get much stronger than a minimal tropical storm. This type of uncertainty is to be expected in this stage before the system has formally developed. Models just can’t get get a good grip of the situation until a low-level circulation center has formed. Big takeaway here is that we don’t know just yet how weak or strong the system will be. This is something we’ll keep a close watch on.

VERY EARLY MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A NORTHERLY TURN… Long time viewers and readers know that I don’t put much, if any, stock in any weather model guidance 7 days out or greater. There is simply too much variability in the atmosphere that often causes extreme model error in that range. No doubt, models are getting better every year, but we still have a long way to go in weather forecasting beyond the 7 day range. I am encouraged, however, that most of the major global weather models have consistently suggested that IF INVEST 96L develops, it will potentially take a northerly turn well before reaching south Florida. This would obviously mean that there would be little to no Gulf of Mexico impacts IF that turns out to be correct. A lot can and will change over the next few days as we get more data in about this system.

INVEST 95L REMAINS WEAK… The totally distinct tropical wave currently bringing showers and thunderstorms to parts of south Florida and The Bahamas remains fairly unorganized. NHC continues to give the system a 0-10% chance of development into a tropical storm as it moves north, basically paralleling the east/Atlantic coast of Florida over the next 3 days. The system is expected to turn northeastward and move out to sea this weekend. I would be very surprised at this point if that system actually develops.

LOCAL WEATHER TO BE CONSISTENT… No tropical or hurricane issues are expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida over the next 5-7 days. Our weather pattern will remain quite monotonous this weekend into early next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a fixture of our weather pattern in the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will be in the 90s with morning lows in the 70s.

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS WEEK… The National Hurricane Center says there is a low-end (20%) chance that tropical storm formation may happen later this week into the upcoming weekend near The Bahamas and south Florida as a tropical wave approaches from the southeast. The system has been designated INVEST 95L. Early model guidance points to this system potentially developing and moving rapidly northeast into the open waters of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, although it is entirely too early to know with confidence whether that will, indeed, happen. Here are the headlines this evening…

IMPRESSIVE ‘LOOK’ ON SATELLITE IMAGERY… INVEST 95L is currently producing heavy rain and thunderstorms across much of the Lesser Antilles just southeast of Puerto Rico in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Much of the cloud cover depicted on the visible satellite imagery is upper-level clouds. I suspect that once this burst of convection fades, it will reveal the true nature of the system: Weak and fairly unorganized as of now. The system will move northwest in the days ahead, likely dropping excessive rainfall across Puerto Rico, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SEEM UNFAVORABLE… Based on the latest model data, it certainly seems like the environment ahead of INVEST 95L will be fairly hostile and not majorly supportive of tropical storm formation later this week. This is because of winds higher in the atmosphere, aka atmospheric wind shear, that will likely rip the system apart at least somewhat as it moves over The Bahamas.

IMPACTS UNLIKELY IN SOUTH ALABAMA OR NORTHWEST FLORIDA… There is no cause for panic, worry, or even giving this system much thought in our local area. There is very high chance, at this point, that direct local impacts in south Alabama or northwest Florida won’t ever happen because of this system. The ECMWF (Euro) model barely develops this system before lifting it rapidly northeast away from the United States. The legacy version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) does develop this system east of Florida before indicating a rapid move out into the open waters of the Atlantic.

LOW-END CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS WEEK… RZW Exec partners, good afternoon! We will be posting this publicly in the next hour as the National Hurricane Center has just released this new information and guidance. There is a low-end (20% as of Noon Tuesday) chance of tropical storm formation in the northern Gulf over the next few days. It is too early to know any details about specifics, but I’ll be sure and let you know more as I know more over the next day or two. Please see the public bulletin below.

20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN GULF LATER THIS WEEK… The National Hurricane Center has introduced a low-end chance of tropical storm formation for the northern Gulf of Mexico valid for later this week. We note this is a totally separate, distinct chance of tropical development that is NOT associated with the former Tropical Depression 3 east of Florida. From NHC: “A non-tropical low pressure area could form over the northern Gulf of Mexico by late Wednesday or Thursday. Thereafter, conditions could become marginally conducive for some subtropical or tropical development as it moves slowly northeastward through the end of the week.”

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT… One of the reasons NHC has flagged this area for a low-end chance of tropical storm formation in the northern Gulf is because of a cold front sliding through our area tonight. This cold front will stall over the northern Gulf (about 200 miles to the south of our area). There is a chance that a surface area of low pressure may develop along the front and slowly move northeast. If this happens, atmospheric conditions are at least somewhat favorable for the development of a tropical storm.

TOO EARLY TO KNOW POTENTIAL IMPACTS… It’s far too early in this process to be able to give any specifics about what our area may (or may not) experience due to this potential tropical development. If formal development happens (and that’s a BIG “if” at this point!), we will probably need to adjust rain chances higher for the weekend, but even that will largely depend on the future track of the system.

APP ALERTS… This is something to monitor and be aware of, but beyond that, there’s no need in panic or worrying at this point. There is still quite a high chance that this system never materializes. We’ll keep you posted about it all in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the RZW app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and turn ON the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Let me know if you have any specific questions. I’ll have more updates throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app.

RZW EXEC UPDATE – T.S. BARRY… RZW Exec partners, good Friday evening! I am in the process of getting ready for a live video that will air in the 8 o’clock hour. The good news for you is I have no major changes to report. The forecast remains on track for south Alabama and northwest Florida with very little in the way of major impacts expected. Yes, there will be heavy rain and some potential for flash flooding this weekend. There could be a brief tornado or two this weekend as well. No wind issues are expected locally. The latest “cone of uncertainty” and track projection from the National Hurricane Center is above. Please let me know if you have any decision support needs. The full discussion I’ll be attaching to the live video is below. Have a good evening!

TORNADO RISK PEAKS OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY BEFORE BARRY MOVES NORTH… Tropical Storm Barry is set to make landfall in the next 12-15 hours along the southern coast of Louisiana as a strong tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane. Rain has been a bit more prevalent across our local area today and I expect the coverage of showers and thunderstorms to continue to increase locally tonight and on Saturday as the core of Barry begins lifting to the north across Louisiana. While the overall tornado risk across south Alabama remains LOW, it’s not zero – especially at the coast and across west Alabama. Everyone should have a way to get the warnings overnight, including something that will wake you up in case your specific location goes under a tornado warning polygon. Let’s look at what you need to know tonight before you go to sleep…

WHAT TO EXPECT LOCALLY – OVERNIGHT… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to stream inland from the Gulf of Mexico over the next 12-24 hours. I’m observing quite a bit of rain south of Destin and Panama City that will move in overnight. This will be a more consistent rain than most areas have had with this event so far. There is a low-end tornado risk tonight and into Saturday at the immediate coastline (basically south of Interstate 10). That threat will shift inland on Saturday during the daytime hours as Barry moves farther north.

BLUE ANGELS UPDATE… The Blue Angels are still aiming to have a limited performance on Saturday at 2PM at Pensacola Beach. Unfortunately, based on the latest data, I would suggest there will be quite a bit of rain around at that time. It’s impossible to know with certainty whether the Blues will get to fly, but I would not be surprised at all if they didn’t. I’m sure there will still be many people at Pensacola Beach for the big weekend, though. If you are down that way, be sure to keep tabs on the radar throughout the day at redzoneweather.com/radar or in the Radar tab of the RedZone Weather app.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES… A Flash Flood Watch continues for all parts of Escambia (AL), Clarke, Choctaw, Washington, Mobile, and Baldwin counties in Alabama. Escambia (FL) and Santa Rosa counties are also included in Florida. This includes Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Flomaton, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Butler, Needham, Toxey, Silas, Gilbertown, Mobile, Citronelle, Wilmer, Mt. Vernon, Saraland, Satsuma, Prichard, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Coden, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Silverhill, Robertsdale, Bay Minette, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Pensacola, Molino, Century, Walnut Hill, Pensacola Beach, Gulf Breeze, Ensley, Milton, Pace, Jay, Whiting Field, Navarre, Berrydale, Munson, Chumuckla, Allentown, and surrounding areas. These are the communities in our region likely to pick up the most rainfall over the next 2-3 days.

GULF WATERS CLOSED AT MANY BEACHES – RIP CURRENTS HAPPENING… Double red flags continue to fly at many local beaches across Alabama and northwest Florida, meaning the Gulf is closed. This is a subject I’ve been harping on lately because of the horrendous statistics associated with the deaths we’ve had… PLEASE do not get in the Gulf waters while this tropical storm is nearby. You could face a hefty fine and more importantly, you could lose your life. Don’t risk it!

WIND ISSUES IN LOUISIANA, BUT NOT CLOSE TO HOME… Tropical storm force winds are happening in the southern part of Louisiana this evening. We will continue to have a good breeze at the local beaches. The good news is our forecast is on track and high winds are NOT expected across south Alabama and northwest Florida due to Tropical Storm Barry.

COASTAL FLOODING TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY… The western end of Dauphin Island has already had some minor coastal flooding issues. Low-lying areas near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches will continue to have minor coastal flooding issues as the core of Barry lifts northward on Saturday into Sunday. This will be due to the strong onshore flow, as our area will remain on the eastern side of the system.

FREE REDZONE WEATHER APP… If you’re following RedZone Weather on Facebook, thank you! If you’re following me on Facebook ALONE, however, you’re missing out. Be sure to download the RedZone Weather app (redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download). There is plenty more content in the app compared to what I post on Facebook each day. See below about how to set up app alerts.

GET THOSE APP ALERTS… We provide a variety of different options to fit your weather information needs. You should control how many alerts you want. We help with that by providing High-Level Alerts, Medium-Level Alerts, and Low-Level Alerts. Everyone gets the High-Level Alerts. We send one or two of those PER YEAR, so not very often at all. We reserve those alerts for high impact weather events. Medium-Level Alerts are recommended for most people. They’re the important alerts, but not necessarily super urgent. Low-Level Alerts are designed for people who want many, many alerts throughout the day. You’ll also want to turn ON alerts for the counties you care about. To do all of this, download the RedZone Weather app and visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to turn on the specific alerts you want.

FORECAST ON TRACK: BARRY TO THE SOUTH; LOCAL IMPACTS LIMITED… RZW Exec members, good Thursday evening! We’ve updated our potential local impacts summary to reflect a low-end tornado potential that will likely continue into Saturday after the core of Tropical Storm Barry makes landfall to our west in Louisiana. In addition, you’ll see below that a Hurricane Warning is now in effect for parts of Louisiana. Please see the updated briefing below. As always, let me know if you have any decision support needs.

TROPICAL STORM BARRY PROMPTS HURRICANE WARNING FOR LOUISIANA… Tropical Storm Barry continues to organize over the northern Gulf of Mexico. What does that mean for south Alabama and northwest Florida? Heavy rain will be likely at times over the next 3-4 days. Some spots may pick up over 5 inches of rain locally before the event is over. Isolated tornadoes could become a problem at the immediate coast and over west Alabama this weekend. Local wind impacts are not expected. That’s a short summary of what YOU can expect if you’re in our local area. Impacts will be much more significant across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. Let’s look at updated details this evening…

NEW: 4PM TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST INFO… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has just issued Advisory #6 for Tropical Storm Barry. Maximum sustained winds are at 40mph with higher gusts near the center of the circulation area. Barry is expected to strengthen over the next 24 to 36 hours before landfall along the central Louisiana coast. NHC continues to suggest landfall will happen as a category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm. The “cone of uncertainty” or projected path has not changed much at all. The cone extends from Cameron, Louisiana eastward to the New Orleans area. That means that the center of Barry will very likely come on shore in that coastline range. Keep in mind, effects from the storm will extend hundreds of miles away from the center. The cone of uncertainty is a forecast for the CENTER of the storm and is not intended to communicate impacts/effects surrounding the center.

NEW: HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR LOUISIANA… We note that no hurricane or tropical storm watches or warnings are in effect for any part of Alabama or Florida at this time. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the coast of Louisiana from Intracoastal City to Grand Isle. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans. The entirety of the Mississippi coast is under a Tropical Storm Watch.

NOT MUCH RAIN SO FAR TODAY; RAIN MORE LIKELY IN DAYS AHEAD… Scattered downpours of heavy rain have happened over the last several hours across the local area. We note that much of the region has been under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, however. Much of the convection associated with Tropical Storm Barry remains on the south side of the center of circulation. Interestingly, the northern side of the system (the side we care about because it is the side over Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama) remains dry and devoid of major, organized convection. This will probably change in the overnight hours and on Friday as convection begins to fill in around the center of the storm.

LOCAL IMPACTS UPDATE FOR SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… If you’ve been reading my long form posts over the last 2-3 days, this information has not changed that much. We expect heavy rain at times on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday that could lead to isolated areas of flash flooding. That will be the number one concern for our local area. Isolated, brief, spin-up tornadoes may become possible at the immediate beaches of Alabama and northwest Florida on Friday and into the weekend. There could be a few tornadoes over west Alabama on Sunday as well as what is left of Barry moves farther inland. This will be something to monitor over the next day or so. Widespread wind issues are not expected locally. Dangerous rip currents continue to happen at our local beaches.

HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL… Most spots across our region will pick up 3 to 4 inches of rain in total over the next 4 to 6 days. There will be some spots that get 4 to 7 inches of rain, especially near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Rain chances will be greatest each day in the afternoon and evening hours. It cannot be stressed enough that heavy rain and flash flooding will be a significant concern, especially closer to the immediate coastline. NEVER attempt to drive on a water-covered roadway. We lose too many people across America each year to this totally preventable cause of death! “Turn around, don’t drown” is the phrase.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH… No changes or additions to report as of this update. The entirety of Mobile, Washington, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), and Santa Rosa counties are under a Flash Flood Watch. 5 to 7 inches of rain will be possible in these areas. This includes Chatom, Millry, Citronelle, Saraland, Stockton, Mobile, Prichard, Theodore, Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Beach, Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, and Navarre.

ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE AT THE COAST FRIDAY… Let me emphasize that for ALL areas in south Alabama and northwest Florida, the overall tornado risk remains very low. We’re concerned about areas near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches due to a low-end tornado risk. Isolated supercell thunderstorms may rotate around the center of Tropical Storm Barry over the next day or two. These cells could produce tornadoes over water (aka tornadic waterspouts) that approach the shoreline. It’s in these immediate beach zones that could see a brief, spin-up tornado. This includes areas like Dauphin Island, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Pensacola Beach, Fort Pickens, Oriole Beach, Navarre, Mary Esther, Fort Walton Beach, Destin, and Miramar Beach. Have a way to get tornado warnings, especially if you’re near the coast!

NEW: ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE AREAWIDE SATURDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has included vast majority of our local area in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk valid for Saturday. This includes inland areas as well, particularly over west Alabama. The concern is after Barry makes landfall in Louisiana, the system will move north and potentially spin up a few, brief tornadoes across Mississippi and southwest Alabama. The Level 1 risk is in place from Eutaw and Marion southward to Selma and to the beaches. This means that Mobile, Pensacola, Fairhope, Orange Beach, Brewton, Atmore, Monroeville, Thomasville, Chatom, Butler, Demopolis, and surroudning areas are included in this risk zone. If any tornadoes happen, they probably won’t be big or last very long – but as I often caution, that doesn’t matter. If a tornado affects you, it’s a big deal!

WIND ISSUES NOT EXPECTED LOCALLY… We’ll have breezy (10-25mph) wind gusts at the immediate coast, but I’m not expecting any wind issues for inland areas due to this passing tropical storm. There could be higher wind gusts in Mississippi and certainly in Louisiana, but wind issues in south Alabama and northwest Florida should be little to none.

UPDATED: DEADLY RIP CURRENTS HAPPENING… This has already been a problem today with multiple reports of people defying red flag orders and getting in the Gulf. Most people don’t realize that the number ONE natural hazard killer in our region is dangerous rip currents! We’ve lost more people to rip currents since 1996 compared to all other natural hazard deaths combined. Most of the victims are people who are from out of our local area that probably didn’t realize the danger. It should be common sense, but just in case it’s not: Don’t get in the water when there is a tropical storm or hurricane around. It’s just not a good idea.

COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE… Low-lying areas at the immediate beach zones that are accustomed to flooding during passing tropical systems may have some coastal flooding issues as we go into the weekend. Widespread coastal flooding issues are not expected, however.

#1 QUESTION I GET: DO I CANCEL MY PLANS?… Unfortunately, this is another question I simply cannot answer. Baseball tournaments, ballet performances, football/soccer games are all scheduled for this weekend. We all have different thresholds and tolerances for what we’re willing to put up with in terms of heavy rain or bad weather. I’m the type of person that will drive through just about anything. Heavy rain just does not bother me. I have people in my family, however, that will not drive through heavy rain. The fact is we have a high chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as the core of Tropical Storm Barry passes to our south and west. If I had an event in Louisiana, I would most likely cancel (depending on the event type). If I had an event locally or to the east, I probably wouldn’t cancel (depending on the event type, again). You might, I’m not sure. It’s just all about what you’re willing to deal with. Heavy rain will be possible at times.

PLEASE USE THE REDZONE WEATHER APP… If you’re following RedZone Weather on Facebook, thank you! If you’re following me on Facebook ALONE, however, you’re missing out. Be sure to download the RedZone Weather app (redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download). There is plenty more content in the app compared to what I post on Facebook each day. See below about how to set up app alerts.

SET UP APP ALERTS… We provide a variety of different options to fit your weather information needs. You should control how many alerts you want. We help with that by providing High-Level Alerts, Medium-Level Alerts, and Low-Level Alerts. Everyone gets the High-Level Alerts. We send one or two of those PER YEAR, so not very often at all. We reserve those alerts for high impact weather events. Medium-Level Alerts are recommended for most people. They’re the important alerts, but not necessarily super urgent. Low-Level Alerts are designed for people who want many, many alerts throughout the day. You’ll also want to turn ON alerts for the counties you care about. To do all of this, download the RedZone Weather app and visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to turn on the specific alerts you want.

I will be doing a special live video update later this evening. Hope you’ll join me for that!

RZW EXEC UPDATE ON PTC3/BARRY… RZW Exec partners, good evening! We’re tracking the system that is about to become Tropical Storm Barry in the northern Gulf of Mexico. There will be some minor impacts, mainly heavy rain, over the next few days across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Clearly, however, the greater impacts will likely happen to our west across parts of western Mississippi, Louisiana, and east Texas as Barry takes aim at those areas. This is a long discussion that will, for the most part, be published publicly later this evening. As always, let me know if you have any decision support questions.

PTC3/BARRY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH

PTC3/BARRY LIKELY TO BE A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY… The system that is about to become Tropical Storm Barry continues to gain organization in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting that Barry will become a category 1 hurricane before the likely landfall in Louisiana or east Texas this weekend. While heavy rain and flash flooding will be our main concerns in south Alabama and northwest Florida, we also note the possibility of a few coastal tornadoes in the immediate beach zones locally over the next few days. Flash flood watches have been issued locally. Tropical storm watches are now in effect for parts of Louisiana. Plenty to discuss this evening. Let’s talk…

NOMENCLATURE MATTERS LESS, IMPACTS MATTER MORE… Let me be direct and say the nomenclature/naming scheme that the U.S. government chooses to use has become horrendous. What we care about is impacts, which is what this discussion will focus on. Whether we call it “Potential Tropical Cyclone #2” or “Tropical Storm Barry,” this system is basically a developing tropical depression right now. The system will almost certainly become Tropical Storm Barry in the next 24-48 hours. PTC3/Barry/”whatever you want to call it” is about to drop a LOT of rain across the Southern U.S. with other impacts expected (detailed extensively below).

FORECAST FOR PTC3/BARRY… Strengthening is expected over the next 24-48 hours. PTC3/Barry will likely ramp up to a 50-60mph tropical storm in the next day or two. The system is expected to become a category 1 or category 2 hurricane as it makes landfall in Louisiana or east Texas this weekend. At the moment, landfall is most likely to happen Saturday P.M. or Sunday A.M. We caution that the timeframe may change somewhat as the system continues to organize over the next day or two. PTC3/Barry will continue to fling in warm, Gulf moisture even after the center of circulation passes by our area to the south. We will be on the eastern side of the circulation, meaning the flow will be out of the south. That’s why rain chances will remain HIGH locally through the weekend with a low-end chance of isolated tornadoes at the coast.

LOCAL IMPACTS FOR SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… We now have high confidence about all impacts discussed below. This probably will not change much over the next few days. It cannot be stressed enough that heavy rain and flash flooding will be a significant concern, especially closer to the immediate coastline. NEVER attempt to drive on a water-covered roadway. We lose too many people across America each year to this totally preventable cause of death! “Turn around, don’t drown” is the phrase. Isolated tornadoes at the the immediate beach zones will also be a concern.

FLASH FLOODING & HEAVY RAIN… We’ve adjusted projected rainfall amounts even higher based on the latest data from the Weather Prediction Center. Most spots across our region will pick up 3 to 4 inches of rain in total over the next 5 to 7 days. There will be some spots that get 5 to 8 inches of rain, especially near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Rain chances will be greatest each day in the afternoon and evening hours.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH… The entirety of Mobile, Washington, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), and Santa Rosa counties are under a Flash Flood Watch. 5 to 7 inches of rain will be possible in these areas. This includes Chatom, Millry, Citronelle, Saraland, Stockton, Mobile, Prichard, Theodore, Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Beach, Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, and Navarre.

ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE AT THE COAST… Let me emphasize that for ALL areas in south Alabama and northwest Florida, the overall tornado risk remains VERY low. For most spots across inland counties, the tornado risk remains at or near zero. We’re concerned about areas near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches due to a low-end tornado risk. Isolated supercell thunderstorms may rotate around the center of PTC2/Barry over the next 48 hours. These cells could produce tornadoes over water (aka tornadic waterspouts) that approach the shoreline. It’s in these immediate beach zones that could see a brief, spin-up tornado. This includes areas like Dauphin Island, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Pensacola Beach, Fort Pickens, Oriole Beach, Navarre, Mary Esther, Fort Walton Beach, Destin, and Miramar Beach. Have a way to get tornado warnings, especially if you’re near the coast!

NO MAJOR WIND ISSUES EXPECTED LOCALLY… We’ll have breezy (10-25mph) wind gusts at the immediate coast, but I’m not expecting any wind issues for inland areas due to this passing tropical storm. There could be higher wind gusts in Mississippi and certainly in Louisiana, but wind issues in south Alabama and northwest Florida should be little to none.

RIP CURRENTS KILL… Most people don’t realize that the number ONE natural hazard killer in our region is dangerous rip currents! We’ve lost more people to rip currents since 1996 compared to all other natural hazard deaths combined. Most of the victims are people who are from out of our local area that probably didn’t realize the danger. It should be common sense, but just in case it’s not: Don’t get in the water when there is a tropical storm or hurricane around. It’s just not a good idea.

COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE… Low-lying areas at the immediate beach zones that are accustomed to flooding during passing tropical systems may have some coastal flooding issues as we go into the weekend. Widespread coastal flooding issues are not expected, however.

BLUE ANGELS UPDATE… It is Blue Angels weekend at Pensacola Beach. The Blues are doing their practice shows Thursday and Friday ahead of the big show at 2PM on Saturday. Unfortunately, rain chances will remain HIGH on Saturday. It’s impossible to pinpoint exactly where showers and thunderstorms will be happening at 2PM Saturday, but I can tell you with high confidence that there will be rain around. We’ll call it an 80 to 90 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Depending on the exact future track of PTC2/Barry, we may have to adjust rain chances higher or lower in the next day or two.

#1 QUESTION I GET: DO I CANCEL MY PLANS?… Unfortunately, this is another question I simply cannot answer. Baseball tournaments, ballet performances, football/soccer games are all scheduled for this weekend. We all have different thresholds and tolerances for what we’re willing to put up with in terms of heavy rain or bad weather. I’m the type of person that will drive through just about anything. Heavy rain just does not bother me. I have people in my family, however, that will not drive through heavy rain. The fact is we have a high chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as the core of PTC2/Barry passes to our south and west. If I had an event in Louisiana, I would most likely cancel (depending on the event type). If I had an event locally or to the east, I probably wouldn’t cancel (depending on the event type, again). You might, I’m not sure. It’s just all about what you’re willing to deal with. Lots of rain upcoming!

TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN LOUISIANA… There is a tropical storm watch in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River (south of Buras, Louisiana) westward to Morgan City, Louisiana. Hurricane Watches will be needed later tonight or tomorrow for parts of the Louisiana coast.

PLENTY MORE INFO IN REDZONE WEATHER APP… If you’re following RedZone Weather on Facebook, thank you! If you’re following me on Facebook ALONE, however, you’re missing out. Be sure to download the RedZone Weather app (redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download). There is plenty more content in the app compared to what I post on Facebook each day. See below about how to set up app alerts.

APP ALERTS… We provide a variety of different options to fit your weather information needs. You should control how many alerts you want. We help with that by providing High-Level Alerts, Medium-Level Alerts, and Low-Level Alerts. Everyone gets the High-Level Alerts. We send one or two of those PER YEAR, so not very often at all. We reserve those alerts for high impact weather events. Medium-Level Alerts are recommended for most people. They’re the important alerts, but not necessarily super urgent. Low-Level Alerts are designed for people who want many, many alerts throughout the day. You’ll also want to turn ON alerts for the counties you care about. To do all of this, download the RedZone Weather app and visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to turn on the specific alerts you want.

My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Facebook. Plenty more updates will be available in the RedZone Weather app between now and then. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a great evening!

LIVE VIDEO UPDATE THIS EVENING… RZW Exec partners, good evening! I will be producing a special live video update that will air on Facebook Live and here in the RedZone Weather app this evening talking about the potential for a tropical storm to develop in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico later this week. This system, based on the latest guidance, will move to our south with little in the way of significant impacts for our local area. That is, IF the current forecast verifies. Hope you’ll join us for the live update around 7:30PM. As always, let me know if you have any decision support questions! Here is a first look at my discussion that will be posted publicly during the live video update.

TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO FORM IN GULF LATE THIS WEEK… Confidence is now high that a tropical storm will form over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico in the next 3-5 days. If you have a vacation at the beach or are interested in the Blue Angels shows, see the detailed info below. What will likely become Tropical Storm Barry will move west across the Gulf with the center of the storm probably ending up somewhere along the Louisiana or Texas coast this weekend. That is the most likely scenario, at this point, based on continuing trends of the major global weather models. We note that forecast revisions are still very much possible and there is no doubt that this is a system we will need to keep a close eye on in the days ahead. If the most likely scenario verifies, that means that south Alabama and northwest Florida will have very little in the way of big impacts. There will be increased rain chances around this weekend with high waves and dangerous rip currents being likely at area beaches, but those two impacts will probably happen regardless of if formal development happens. That’s the latest summary. Here are some specifics…

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS IN SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… Higher rain chances will be likely Friday, Saturday, into Sunday as what will likely be a developing tropical storm passes well to our south. That statement is based on the latest guidance from all models and the National Hurricane Center. This could mean that a flash flooding threat may set up across the coastal half of our region. In addition, there is high confidence that dangerous rip currents will happen at all of our local Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Rip currents have killed more folks in our local area than ALL other natural hazards combined since 1996. Most of the folks who have passed away due to rip currents are people from outside of our local area that don’t understand the dangers of rip currents. Coastal flooding will also be a concern in low-lying areas.

HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND… Our coastal counties (Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Escambia (FL), Baldwin, and Mobile counties could have upwards of 3-6” of total rainfall over the next 7 days. This could prompt a flash flooding issue in isolated spots across the region. Inland areas will likely have 1-4” of rain in total with isolated higher amounts over the next 7 days.

IMPACTS WILL INCREASE *IF* TRACK FORECAST CHANGES… Let me stress that the above-mentioned impacts may substantially increase if we see a track deviation or significant forecast changes, which at this point cannot be completely ruled out. Confidence is increasing in a westward track that would put the center of this likely tropical storm well to our south, but we aren’t “out of the woods” completely just yet. Be sure to check back with me over the next few days for the very latest!

MY THOUGHTS ON YOUR VACATION PLANS… I’ve had several questions about folks wondering about their vacation plans to our area beaches this weekend. See more details about the Blue Angels shows in the detailed paragraph below. I can’t give specific advice as to whether you should postpone your vacation plans or not, but what I can tell you is there is a high likelihood that much of the daytime hours of Saturday could have scattered showers and thunderstorms around. Rain amounts this weekend could top 3-4” in total from Friday through Sunday. If you can, I would wait to make a decision about postponing a trip until Wednesday or Thursday when more details are available.

BLUE ANGELS FORECAST… Like many of you, I am proud that the Blue Angels call Pensacola home! The big Pensacola Beach Blue Angels Air Show is later this week into this weekend. Here’s what you need to know in terms of the weather forecast: Wednesday for “Breakfast with the Blues” at 8AM should be fine. Scattered clouds are expected but most of the pop-up storms will happen later in the day on Wednesday. Thursday will be the practice show at 2PM. Scattered thunderstorms are expected and it’s too early to know when and where those will happen. Friday will also feature a practice run at 2PM at Pensacola Beach. There could be scattered to numerous thunderstorms around. The main Blue Angels show is scheduled to happen Saturday at 2PM. Unfortunately, rain chances are high. It’s not a certainty that there will be rain and storms around, but it is a likelihood at this point. Be sure to check back with me later this week for an update on the Blues!

NOT UNPRECEDENTED STORM MOTION/DEVELOPMENT… Many people have asked questions about just how rare it is to have a developing area of low pressure moving from the inland areas of the Southeastern U.S. over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. “Home grown” systems like this are not uncommon as one might think. Weakening cold fronts often stall and will spin up a tropical system close to land. Hurricane Arthur in 2014 had a similar situation in its genesis. A tropical area of low pressure developed over land before emerging over the Atlantic Ocean and developing into what would become Hurricane Arthur. That’s just one example. There have been other systems, even in the Gulf of Mexico, that have developed due to a feature moving off land and over the warm waters of the Gulf. I think the difference here is people are seeing the Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center and more people are actually aware of how a tropical storm may form.

POP-UP STORMS & BIG TIME HEAT THROUGH THURSDAY… Scattered afternoon and evening pop-up thunderstorms will continue to be a daily fixture in our weather forecast over the next 3-4 days before we start observing a likely increase in rain/storm chances due to the likely tropical storm passing to our south. The storms through Thursday have nothing to do with the tropical feature. These will be the “daily deluge” of showers and thunderstorms that are primarily influenced/develop because of the seabreeze that moves in daily from the Gulf of Mexico. High temperatures will continue to be in the 90s with morning lows in the 70s.

Let me know if you have specific questions. Have a great evening!

POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT LATE NEXT WEEK… RZW Exec members, good Friday afternoon! It’s been several weeks since we’ve had any significant weather changes to report to you. Our weather pattern has been remarkably consistent with afternoon and evening pop-up thunderstorms, ample heat, and plenty of humidity. This afternoon, we’re observing the first credible signs that a tropical storm may develop close to our local area at the end of next week.

There is still plenty of uncertainty with this, meaning we have more questions than answers at this point. I have not publicly mentioned this possibility just yet, as I want to review incoming data this afternoon and this evening to ensure model consistency and continuity in this idea. I did want you to be the first to know, however, that we have at least some chance of having a more active weather pattern approximately one week from today. Below is rough draft of how the public post will be written, if needed, this evening…

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE “CLOSE TO HOME” NEXT WEEK… There is a small, yet growing, chance that a tropical storm may form in the northern Gulf of Mexico toward the end of next week into the next weekend (July 10-14). While there are still MANY uncertainties, consistent model data continues to support the idea of some tropical mischief in the northern Gulf late next week. These model signals point to increased rain chances late next week for south Alabama and northwest Florida, at bare minimum. Again, we have more questions than answers at this point as to IF or when this tropical storm will form. Let’s talk about what we do know…

MODEL IDEA GAINING TRACTION… The ECMWF (Euro) model started hinting yesterday that a surface area of low pressure may form in the northern Gulf of Mexico at the tail end of a trough by the end of next week. The European model continues to suggest this area of low pressure will develop in the northern Gulf before looping back to the northeast and making landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast. It’s too early to know whether this landfall will be as a designated tropical storm or as a general, “weaker” area of low pressure. The image above is a screen capture of the European model valid at 7PM Friday, July 12, showing the 850mb winds and MSLP (barometric pressure). This view shows a 990mb tropical storm (winds probably in the 40-50mph range, if that model screenshot happened to be correct) centered just south of Pensacola. The American-based Global Forecast System (GFS) has also hinted at this same potential. It is important to note that not all models are on board with this idea, with the Canadian and NAVGEM models not alluding to this potential at all.

INCONSISTENT MODEL DATA EXPECTED… While the overall idea of an area of low pressure seems to be gaining traction with the major global models, it is totally normal to see models “all over the board” at this stage of this process. Models will continue to get a better grasp of the atmospheric setup as we go through the weekend and get into early next week. Data will likely become more consistent, and thus I’ll be able to give more details as we get closer to this potential tropical storm event.

SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN GULF… We note much of the northern Gulf of Mexico has sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 84°. Typically, tropical systems need SSTs of near 80° to form.

BEYOND THAT, UNCERTAINTY… No one, and I mean absolutely no one, knows IF this system will, indeed, materialize into a tropical storm and threaten the United States. Is that a small possibility as of now? Yes, but there’s been low consistency as to where the system will ultimately end up (both on the GFS and Euro). I would suggest everyone from Louisiana eastward to north Florida keep an eye on this system. Obviously, that includes ALL of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. No need for fear, panic, or anxiety as no one knows if this system will develop or where it will end up, however the idea is there for a minimal tropical storm potential in the northern Gulf next week.

WHAT IS CAUSING THIS POTENTIAL… There will be a trough, or a dip in the jet stream, in place across the southeastern U.S. on Wednesday into Thursday (July 10-11). This trough will sag southward into the northern Gulf where a surface area of low pressure will likely develop in the northeastern or north central Gulf of Mexico likely on Friday into Saturday (a week from today). Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are in the 84-87 degree range in this part of the Gulf, meaning there is plenty of fuel in place for a potential tropical storm. SSTs are only one factor, though. We note that upper level atmospheric winds/shear looks favorable for the development of a tropical storm.

SOCIAL MEDIA CRAZINESS AHEAD… Long-time viewers and readers know that it drives me crazy to see outlandish, inaccurate, wild weather model images circulating on social media. I suspect you’ll see crazy clickbait images in the days ahead regarding this system. The truth is, we don’t have a firm grip just yet of anything concrete. What we know at this point is there is a growing consensus that a tropical storm could form/move across the northern quadrant of the Gulf of Mexico late next week. Please join me in not sharing bad info… That just feeds the trolls and hype machine.

CHANGE PLANS? NO, NOT YET… For everyone who has been asking about changing cruise/vacation plans, my response remains “wait and see,” for now. We simply don’t have enough good information to suggest anyone should cancel any plans because of this. There is still a good chance that this weather system may simply mean increased rain chances by the end of next week.

Let me know if you have specific questions. Have a great evening!

RZW EXEC: MAJOR RAIN EVENT THIS WEEKEND… RZW Exec members, good Tuesday evening! We have a significant rainfall event setting up for the weekend across Alabama and northwest Florida. 4 to 7 inches of rain will be possible. For now, severe weather (tornadoes, damaging wind, hail) remains unlikely. Here is the post we will be posting publicly over the next 15 minutes…

MAJOR RAIN EVENT AHEAD: 5-7” OF RAIN POSSIBLE… Talk about a weather pattern flip! We’ve got a major rain event setting up for the weekend into early next week as Gulf moisture streams in from the south, paving the way for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Friday through Monday. While this rain is MUCH needed, I am growing a bit concerned about the possibility of flash flooding IF storms train over the same areas this weekend. The good news is this will be a soaking rain, but likely WITHOUT a big risk of convective issues like tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind. Let’s look at details…

WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW… There actually are a few showers and thunderstorms happening right now (as of 7:30PM on Tuesday) near Castleberry, Evergreen, Nymph, Jay Villa, L Pond, and Johnsonville in southern Conecuh County. Another lone storm is noted near Gosport and Claiborne near the Alabama River near the Clarke/Monroe County line near the Alabama River Pulp mill. These storms are slowly drifting northward.

SCATTERED STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY… The big rain happens this weekend, but not before a few scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours of Wednesday and Thursday. These will be diurnal, pop-up storms capable of producing very heavy downpours of rain in localized areas. Cloud-to-ground lightning will be a concern. You know the drill by now: “When thunder roars, go indoors.”

NUMEROUS STORMS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY… Deep tropical moisture will surge into our area from the south on Friday, meaning numerous showers and thunderstorms will become likely. 1-2” of rain will be possible Friday, with isolated higher amounts. If you have outdoor events scheduled for Friday or Saturday, I would definitely have an indoor backup ready!

RAIN & STORMS LIKELY INTO SUNDAY… The axis of moisture that parks over our area really won’t be moving much Saturday or Sunday. I expect rain to progressively end on Monday, but not before some areas pick up 5, 6, or maybe even 7 inches of rain near the immediate beaches. We note that NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has parts of the Alabama coastline in their 7” contour zone, meaning it is plausible to have 6-8” of rain near Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, and Dauphin Island before this rain event ends early next week.

TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NOW UNLIKELY… Some good news to pass along this evening! The National Hurricane Center says that INVEST 91L, the tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche (southern Gulf of Mexico) now only has a 20% chance of developing into a named tropical storm. This is actually the system that will ultimately be responsible for flinging in some of the Gulf moisture from the South this weekend. Again, it won’t be a tropical storm or hurricane when the moisture arrives here.

Let me know if you have any questions. My next public forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Wednesday morning. Have a nice Tuesday evening!

RZW EXEC EVENING UPDATE… RZW Exec members, good Friday evening! Below you’ll see the latest info on a potential tropical storm that may develop in the southern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. The big headline for our region is that NO local impacts are expected. We will begin pushing this message publicly in the next hour. As always, let me know if you have any questions.

20-30% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN SOUTHERN GULF… We are within hours of the official start of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season kicking off. Right on time, an area of disturbed weather now has a low chance of developing into a tropical storm in the southern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. Let me very clear in saying this system likely will never come close to south Alabama or northwest Florida. Little to no local direct impacts are expected at this time. Let’s look at the headlines about this system…

MOVEMENT TOWARD INLAND MEXICO… Again, we’re not expecting any direct local impacts from this system (regardless of development) in Alabama or northwest Florida. Whether development happens or not, this will be a big time rain event for areas in Mexico just south of Texas.

POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN BAY OF CAMPECHE… The National Hurricane Center says there is now a 20 to 30 percent chance of a tropical storm developing in the southern tier of the Gulf of Mexico near the coastline of the nation of Mexico over the next 2 to 5 days. This is the area of the Gulf of Mexico known as the Bay of Campeche. It is not uncommon to see early season tropical development in the western Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf. Right now, the area of low pressure is situated on the Yucatan Peninsula, slowly moving to the west. The broad center of the area of low pressure will emerge over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche likely on Sunday. To get a tropical storm, two main things would need to happen. 1) There would need to be consistent bursts of convection or thunderstorms. 2) A low-level center of circulation would need to form. Many times with these very early season tropical disturbances, you’ll get plenty of convection with no low-level center, thus no designation as a tropical storm. At the moment, that is the MOST likely scenario.

DOES THIS MEAN ACTIVE SEASON? NOT NECESSARILY… Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that just because we’re seeing activity this early in the season that this will be a hyperactive hurricane season. Could we have an active season? Yes. Is it likely at this point? No. In fact, the recent NOAA hurricane season outlook calls for a “near normal” Atlantic hurricane season, meaning 10-12 tropical storms, 6-7 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes. I’m sure the fear mongers will be out in full force in the days ahead preaching fake major hurricane stories set to impact the United States. Again, don’t buy into it. Let’s take it day by day and we’ll bring you the facts and the very latest information.

UPCOMING TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES… The “A” tropical cyclone name has already been used. Subtropical Storm Andrea was a weak, brief system southwest of Bermuda that happened a few weeks ago. Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, and Gabrielle are the upcoming names on the 2019 naming list. The tropical cyclone naming lists are reused every six years, excluding names that are permanently retired (like Florence and Michael last year).

ISOLATED STORM THIS EVENING; MOST ARE DRY… Other than a lone, weakening shower near Walnut Hill and Barrineau Park, the rest of south Alabama and northwest Florida remains dry as of 7:30PM. A few pop up storms will be possible on Saturday in the afternoon hours, but I expect vast majority of us to remain dry and hot. Temperatures will again peak in the mid-90s.

NEXT UPDATE… My next public update on this tropical system will be posted by 7:15AM on Saturday morning. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a great evening!

STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING… RZW Exec partners, good Wednesday evening! We have a lower-end (compared to the last two rounds we had in the last two weeks) severe weather risk setting up for the afternoon and evening hours of Thursday, April 25 (tomorrow) across the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Our public messaging for this event has already started. A complex of storms will approach our region from the west during the late afternoon and early evening hours of Thursday. These storms may be on the strong side, capable of becoming severe and producing isolated, brief tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. As always, please let me know if there is anything I can do to assist you in your weather-related decision support for your business or organization.

NEW RISK LEVELS GRAPHIC… Starting with this severe weather event, we are debuting our exclusive new “severe weather risk levels” graphic to help each of you be better informed about the risk levels of specific hazard types. We will continue to revise this graphic/concept, based on your feedback and your needs, going forward. You can see in the event setting up for Thursday evening, damaging wind gusts will likely be our number one concern with isolated tornadoes also being possible. While the “power outages” and “lightning” categories do not technically qualify as “severe weather,” we know that those are two things that a LOT of people care about when we have active weather moving through.

LEVEL 2 RISK: WHO IS INVOLVED… Vast majority of the local area is included in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone. If you’re in any of the following communities or surrounding areas, you’re included: Mobile, Pensacola, Destin, Brewton, Monroeville, Grove Hill, Silas, Toxey, Chatom, Millry, Leroy, Jackson, Fruitdale, Vinegar Bend, Wagerville, McIntosh, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Fairhope, Bay Minette, Stockton, Stapleton, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Key, Molino, Gonzalez, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Century, Flomaton, Atmore, Poarch, Bratt, Jay, Berrydale, Munson, Crestview, Milton, Navarre, Niceville, Fort Walton Beach, Laurel Hill, Florala, Pleasant Home, Evergreen, Castleberry, Repton, and Brooklyn.

LOWER-END, LEVEL 1 RISK… We note that the northeastern swath of our area remains involved in the lower-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone. This includes areas in/near Thomasville, Beatrice, Greenville, Georgiana, Oaky Streak, Halso Mill, McKenzie, Red Level, River Falls, Andalusia, Heath, Straughn, Rose Hill, and Opp.

Much of west-central Alabama and southeast Alabama are also now involved in the Level 1 risk zone, including Demopolis, Selma, Camden, Butler, Livingston, Troy, Elba, Enterprise, Dothan, Geneva, Samson, Luverne, Daleville, and Abbeville.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will be the two main concerns as storms move by Thursday afternoon, evening, and into the very early morning hours of Friday. Rain amounts should add up to 1-2” in total for most spots across our region, thus likely mitigating the flash flooding risk.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… This has changed a bit since this morning. 2PM Thursday to 2AM Friday is the 12 hour window in which severe weather may happen across our region. 5PM to 11PM seems to be the 6 hour window with the greatest potential when tornadoes may happen. Have a way to get the warnings on Thursday!

SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Wednesday afternoon. We have a significant round of severe weather setting up for the evening hours of Thursday into the very early morning hours of Friday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded ALL of our local area into their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone. SPC notes that further outlook upgrades are possible over the next 24 hours as this event draws closer.

TORNADO RISK INFO… Please be sure to see my latest long-form public update (published here in the RedZone Weather app as of 12:45PM and copied into this post below) detailing the specifics. This is absolutely an event that could “mean business.” There is a chance of strong tornadoes that could produce considerable damage. The tornado risk looks to be maxed out across eastern Louisiana and southeast Mississippi, meaning west Alabama is at greatest risk in our local area.

DECISION SUPPORT… It’s a blessing for school superintendents reading this that the core of this severe weather event is happening during non-school hours. This will also be an event that happens after regular business hours. IF you, your organization, or your business need decision support information, please don’t hesitate to text or call me this afternoon/evening. (251) 363-8833 is my cell number.

LEVEL 3 RISK ZONE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL LOCAL AREAS… Tornadoes will be likely Thursday evening into early Friday morning with a few strong tornadoes being possible. The Storm Prediction Center continues to include much of Alabama, southern Mississippi, and eastern Louisiana in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone valid for Thursday. Multiple tornadoes are likely, a few strong tornadoes will be possible, damaging wind gusts are likely, and large hail is possible. The higher risk zone remains in place across nearly all of our local area as of the 1PM update. As of 1PM, SPC has expanded the Level 3 risk to include much of southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle region.

LEVEL 3 RISK ZONE FOR THURSDAY… ALL of our local area is now involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone on Thursday, including the following areas: Brewton, Flomaton, Atmore, Poarch, Evergreen, Castleberry, Lenox, Repton, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Grove Hill, Thomasville, Jackson, Coffeeville, Silas, Toxey, Chatom, Millry, Wagerville, Leroy, Fruitdale, Calvert, Mt. Vernon, Citronelle, Mobile, Axis, Prichard, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Saraland, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Stockton, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Foley, Pensacola, Gulf Breeze, Molino, Century, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Jay, Berrydale, Milton, Navarre, Allentown, Chumuckla, Red Level, Greenville, Georgiana, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Luverne, Destin, Crestview, and Fort Walton Beach. Areas just to our north are also included in this Level 3 risk zone: Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Clanton, Selma, Demopolis, Jasper, Hamilton, Prattville, Livingston, Camden, Hayneville, and Butler.

NO ISSUES ON THURSDAY MORNING… Besides some patchy areas of dense fog, no major weather issues are expected before the lunch hour on Thursday. Cloud coverage will continue to increase.

SHOWERS & STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON… Severe weather issues are likely to be in progress to our west on Thursday afternoon. SPC maintains a Level 3 risk zone for much of the southern half of Mississippi and eastern Louisiana where there is a chance of a few strong tornadoes happening. We could have a few spotty showers and storms around our region during the afternoon hours of Thursday. These showers and storms will likely be well under severe limits. We’ll call it a 30% chance of rain during the afternoon hours with rain chances rising after 8PM as the line of storms moves in late Thursday.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… The severe weather risk window will be from 6PM Thursday to 3AM on Friday, with the core risk being from 9PM to 1AM. It looks like we will be up late monitoring storms, meaning we all will need a way to get warnings before we go to sleep!

SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS THURSDAY EVENING… The latest model indications point to a severe line of thunderstorms moving through Thursday evening into Friday morning with the risk of a few supercell storms firing up out ahead of the main line. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will all be concerns as this batch of storms moves by. If supercells can become more discrete and isolated, we will have to adjust the tornado risk even higher than what it is right now. Be sure to check back with me later this evening and Thursday morning for the latest information!

Let me know if you have specific questions. My next detailed forecast update will be available later this evening with a Medium-Level Alert sent for users of our RedZone Weather app. See you then!

SPECIAL OUTLOOK UPGRADE TO LEVEL 3… RZW Exec members, I am in the process of writing a detailed post about this right now. I wanted to let you know first, however, that the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded parts of west Alabama into their Level 3 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone valid for Thursday into early Friday morning. SPC notes that strong tornadoes may be possible across parts of eastern Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi, and far western Alabama.

Standby – I am about to send one of our Medium-Level Alerts about this.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES BY THURSDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Monday evening! We are looking ahead to our next storm system that will move across Alabama and northwest Florida on Thursday. For now, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included all of Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) standard slight risk area. Tornadoes and damaging winds will be possible as an eastward-advancing line of storms moves by. These are some of the details we will be discussing publicly over the next 24 hours… Please let me know if you have questions or need decision support as this event draws closer.

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN P.M. HOURS ON THURSDAY… While Thursday morning will feature increasing wind from the south as our area enters the humid, unstable warm sector out ahead of the advancing cold front, the severe weather issues are MOST likely to happen in the afternoon and evening hours of Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center maintains much of Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone, meaning scattered instances of severe weather will be possible. Tornadoes and damaging winds will be the main concerns.

TIMING OF THE STORMS ON THURSDAY… 2PM to 11PM seems to be the best estimate of a “severe weather timing” window at the moment, although we note that could change as more model data comes in over the next 48 hours. We all will need a way to get urgent tornado warnings on Thursday, particularly after the lunch hour. The good news is the latest trends suggest this will be a daytime/evening event and NOT an overnight event unlike our last round of severe weather that happened on Sunday.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS THURSDAY… While early model indications point to a system that will produce a squall line of strong to severe storms (QLCS – quasi-linear convective system as it’s known in the meteorology world), it’s too early to know whether supercell thunderstorms will be involved out ahead of the main line. Regardless, isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line winds will clearly be the two main hazards across our region as this quick hitting system moves by.