SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY… Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes and damaging straight line winds will become possible tomorrow (Saturday, December 1) across much of Alabama and northwest Florida. The forecast for our local area remains on track with very little in the way of significant changes to pass along. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to include the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) “slight risk” zone to potentially see isolated strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday, particularly in the late morning hours. Isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms will be the main concerns.

SATURDAY RISK ZONES

SPC continues to include the southern half of Alabama, southeast Mississippi, eastern Louisiana, all of northwest Florida and the Florida Panhandle, and much of southwest Georgia in their Level 2 (out of 5) “slight risk” zone. This zone is basically unchanged since yesterday. Areas included in the slight risk zone will have the highest chance of experiencing severe weather on Saturday. ALL of our local counties are included in this zone.

NEXT FEW HOURS

At the time this update is being produced as of 11:26AM, we have partly to mostly cloudy skies in place across south Alabama and northwest Florida. I expect cloud coverage to increase over the next several hours. There are already a few sprinkles happening across portions of Choctaw, Marengo, and Washington counties in west Alabama. Showers will steadily increase in number across west Alabama through the evening hours.

RAIN/STORMS OVERNIGHT

Most of the high-resolution, short-term models show a complex of rain and thunderstorms developing late this evening into early Saturday morning over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This area of rain and storms will move from southwest to northeast across our area through the early morning hours of Saturday. The big question mark is just how much this area of rain/storms stabalizes the atmosphere. IF significant stabalization occurs, our severe weather risk on Saturday morning/afternoon may be limited. On the contrary, there is a chance that significant stabalization may not occur. This would promote a potential environment for supercell thunderstorm development late on Saturday morning.

SEVERE STORM TIMING

The 12 hour window for when severe weather is most likely across our region will be from 4AM to 4PM on Saturday. The core risk will happen late morning into the early afternoon (9AM to 2PM) hours when we have the greatest setup of the “multiple atmospheric ingredients” needed for strong storm formation. The severe weather risk will end from west to east on Saturday. We note most of the storms should be well east of our area by 3PM when many folks will be watching the SEC Championship.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS

Isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line winds will be the main concerns in the stronger storms. Some weather models are depicting the potential for a few supercell thunderstorms late Saturday morning. Any supercells that become discrete and isolated will have the greatest tornado potential. Definitely something to monitor as we get closer to this potential event. The risk of large hail is low, but not zero. The hail risk will happen in any supercells that can become isolated. Isolated instances of flash flooding may happen, but the overall flash flooding risk remains low.

FINAL RZW EXEC UPDATE

This will be the final RZW Exec update for this particular severe weather event as our focus will now shift to communicating hazards to the general public. If you have any weather-related decision support questions, please do not hesitate to reach out to me. Have a great weekend!

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY… RZW Exec members, good morning! The Storm Prediction Center has included the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) “slight risk” zone to potentially see isolated strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday, particularly in the morning hours. Isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms will be the main concerns. Unlike some of the previous severe weather events over the last few weeks, this risk covers a larger area and all local areas are now included in the Level 2 risk zone.

MORE SIGNIFICANT RISK TO OUR WEST

Much of the Arklatex region is included in the Level 3 risk zone valid for Friday. Southern Arkansas could have a few potentially strong tornadoes during the afternoon/evening hours of Friday into Friday night. You can see in the graphic below that SPC has opted to include the western periphery of our area in their Level 1 risk on Friday. That is because we may have a few thunderstorms as early as LATE Friday evening. I’m not expecting severe weather issues in south Alabama and northwest Florida until Saturday, however.

STANDARD SLIGHT RISK FOR SATURDAY

It’s a classic “high shear, low CAPE” cold season severe weather potential we have setting up for Saturday. This likely will not be a high impact severe weather event, but there definitely could be scattered instances of trees being blown down and a few isolated tornadoes. Much of Alabama and all of northwest Florida is included in the Level 2 (out of 5), “slight risk” zone valid for Saturday. All areas along and south of a line from Aliceville to Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Talladega to Roanoke are included. Note that the entirety of the local area is included in this Level 2 risk zone.

STORM TIMING

Isolated showers could happen as early as Friday afternoon across west Alabama. More consistent rain may happen Friday evening into the overnight hours of Saturday morning. The severe weather risk, however, will extend from 4AM to 4PM on Saturday, with the greatest risk being from 9AM to 2PM. That is when the greatest combination of severe weather ingredients will be in place across our region.

The image below is a model capture valid at 1PM on Saturday. Note that this is a model, meaning timing and placement won’t happen exactly like this. All major weather models have a “look” similar to this, showing the potential for strong to severe storms in our local area midday on Saturday.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS

Isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line winds will be the main concerns in the stronger storms. Some weather models are depicting the potential for a few supercell thunderstorms late Saturday morning. Any supercells that become discrete and isolated will have the greatest tornado potential. Definitely something to monitor as we get closer to this potential event. The risk of large hail is low, but not zero. The hail risk will happen in any supercells that can become isolated. Flash flooding impacts look to be negligible at this time. Below is the latest Quantiative Precipitation Forecast, showing rain totals over the next 5 days. Some spots in Okaloosa and Walton counties could pick up over 3 inches of rainfall in total, while rainfall amounts are expected to be less across west Alabama.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE

Please let me know if you have any specific decision support-related questions. Public updates have already started and will continue during the lead up to this event. My next RZW Exec update will be posted on Friday by 3PM at the latest. Have a great evening & let me know if you have any questions!

LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK THIS EVENING… RZW Exec members, good Sunday morning! I hope each of you had a nice Thanksgiving, Black Friday, & Iron Bowl holiday. The Storm Prediction Center has opted to upgrade part of our local area into their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk valid for later today into tonight. Odds are vast majority of south Alabama and northwest Florida will have NO severe weather issues over the next 24 hours. The risk will almost certainly set up near the immediate coastline of our local area. One or two brief, isolated tornadoes will be the main concern. An instance of damaging straight line winds will also be possible.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED… The Level 1, low-end risk is in place for parts of Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties. Communities along and south of Interstate 10 have the highest risk of experiencing a strong to severe storm this evening. This includes (but is not limited to) areas near Mobile, Pensacola, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Milton, Navarre, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Molino, Chumuckla, Warrington, Perdido Key, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Fort Morgan, Dauphin Island, Foley, Elberta, Robertsdale, Silverhill, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Bayou La Batre, Prichard, Saraland, and Satsuma.

NO ISSUES EXPECTED INLAND… No severe weather issues are expected across inland areas today as the warm front causing this low-end severe weather potential will not reach these areas. Stable air will likely be in place across Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Butler, Conecuh, Escambia (AL), and Covington counties for the duration of this event.

STORM TIMING… The low-end risk of severe weather/isolated tornadoes will happen from 2PM to 9PM CST today (Sunday, November 25, 2018). The risk will progressively shift eastward throughout the evening.

ONE MODEL IDEA… Below is an image capture off of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) short-term model, showing the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms across our region valid at 6 o’clock this evening. Note that showers and storms won’t happen necessarily at locations depicted. This is simply internal model guidance visualizing this potential.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region this afternoon into the evening hours. A brief, spin-up tornado will be the main concern for coastal areas. A few of the stronger storms may become capable of producing isolated instances of damaging straight line winds. The risk of large hail today is very low. The risk of flash flooding is also low, as this will likely NOT be a long-duration rain event for any given spot. You can see why flash flooding very likely won’t be an issue in the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) below…

NEXT RZW UPDATE… Since I’m not expecting widespread issues, this will be the one and only RZW Exec update issued for this event. I’ll have plenty of content posted here in the RZWeather app and across our social platforms in the hours ahead. As always, if we have tornado warnings for any part of our primary coverage area, I’ll be providing live streaming coverage here in the app and across our platforms.

Please let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Have a good Sunday!

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL NOON… RZW Exec members, good morning! This severe weather event is kicking off now, thus this will be my final update here in RZW Exec as my focus shifts to our public products. Please hang with me throughout the day for updates. Not much has changed from our previous detailed Sunday discussion… Isolated tornadoes will be possible, especially in coastal counties, throughout the day. Damaging straight line winds will become possible this afternoon into the evening hours as a squall line of thunderstorms moves through. Heavy rain is likely at times throughout the day. Projected rain amounts over the next 48-72 hours have been adjusted even higher. Most spots are likely to pick up 4-5″ of rain in total through Thursday. Flash flooding will be a very real concern.

Here is an updated view of the projected rainfall amounts across our area…

LEVEL 2 RISK… The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma decided a Level 2 (out of 5) “slight” risk is warranted today due to the potential for a few tornadoes. I think their upgrade is probably a good decision, as we could see a few, brief tornadoes today. The supercell thunderstorms I’ve observed this morning in the Gulf from the time I woke up (around 4:30AM) have really been “overachievers” in terms of their strength. We’ll have to see if this trend continues, but if it does, we could have several tornadoes in coastal counties before this event ends this evening. As always, if we have tornado warnings, we’ll be providing our live streaming coverage across our platforms and in the RedZone Weather app.

FINAL RZW EXEC UPDATE… Again, I’ll have PLENTY of updates in the public-facing section of the RZW app and across social media as well. Please join me there for the latest. This event is just getting started.

Let me know if you have any questions or specific concerns. Have a good Monday & stay safe!

STRONG STORMS & HEAVY RAIN LIKELY ON MONDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Sunday afternoon! Heavy rain and a few strong to severe thunderstorms will make Monday, November 12 an active weather day across south Alabama and northwest Florida. While much of the local area remains in the Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone to potentially see a few strong to severe storms capable of producing a few tornadoes, the risk of heavy rain and flash flooding continues to increase. We’ve adjusted projected rainfall amounts even higher. Vast majority of the local area will pick up 3 to 4 inches of rain, with some spots likely getting upwards of 5 inches of total rainfall.

POTENTIAL HAZARD ASSESSMENT

ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE… There will be brief window for tornadic development on Monday. 9AM to 5PM will be the core risk time for a few tornadoes. The greatest tornado risk will happen in the small supercell storms that form out ahead of the main squall line that will pass by. Supercell development will be possible as early as 9AM and extend into the early evening hours. There could be a few brief, spin-up tornadoes in the main line of storms that passes in the afternoon/evening hours.

TORNADO RISK… Marginal. Level 1 out of 5. Areas near and south of Citronelle, Tensaw, Castleberry, Andalusia, and Opp have the greatest tornado risk. These are the areas outlined in the Storm Prediction Center’s Level 1 risk zone, depicted in the graphic below.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE… The risk of damaging straight line winds will occur as the main, squall line of storms passes through our area in the afternoon and evening hours. Note that once the squall line moves by a given location, the severe weather risk will come to an end. 1PM to 6PM will be the core risk timeframe for the potential of damaging straight line winds.

DAMAGING WIND RISK… Marginal. Level 1 out of 5.

HEAVY RAIN LIKELY… This very well could become the headline risk tomorrow with this system as there will be some areas that have 5 inches of rainfall before all is said and done. Vast majority of us across south Alabama & NW Florida will receive 3-4″ of rain. This will be a good, soaking rain across the region.

FLASH FLOODING RISK… Slight. Level 2 out of 5.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING

MAIN RISK IN AFTERNOON… There is somewhat of a mismatch of timing in the potential risks on Monday, as specifically detailed in the assessment above. The big takeaway is that strong storms will be possible 9AM to 5PM, with the core risk being in the early afternoon hours. The risk of flash flooding will not end at 5PM as heavy rain will likely continue well into the overnight hours and extend into Tuesday. Below, see the 3 kilometer North American Model projected radar valid at 3PM showing an advancing line of strong storms moving across our region.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… We will have a special LIVE edition of the Sunday #rzw forecast video that will air within the next hour. Please continue to monitor our public-facing products on social media and in the RedZone Weather app. The final RZW Exec update about this severe weather potential will be posted by 10AM on Monday. If you have specific questions or concerns, don’t hesitate to reach out. Thanks and have a good Veterans Day holiday.

STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY; HEAVY RAIN LIKELY… Isolated tornadoes will become possible across portions of south Alabama and northwest Florida on Monday as an area of low pressure moves by from the west. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of our area in their Level 1 (out of 5), low-end, marginal severe weather risk zone valid for Monday.

3 POTENTIAL HAZARDS

 1) There is a chance that our local area will have a few isolated tornadoes due to supercell thunderstorms out ahead of a squall line of storms that is likely to move by late in the day on Monday.

2) We’ll also need to monitor the stronger storms as damaging straight line winds will also be possible. The damaging wind gust risk will be greatest when the main line of storms passes through the area, likely later in the evening on Monday based on the latest guidance.

3) The likelihood of heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding in spots is very high. We will likely introduce an uncommon 100% probability of rain for Monday in upcoming forecasts. Most spots locally will pick up 2 to 3 inches of rain, with some isolated spots possibly reporting 4″ of rain before the event is over. See the latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast below. This is a projection telling us how much rain (in total) is expected from this event.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING

There will likely be changes with this in the next 24-48 hours as we nail down specifics. Impacts in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida will become possible as early as 6AM and extend to as late as 11PM on Monday, November 12. The greatest likelihood of severe weather (core timeframe) will happen from Noon to 9PM.

Below is a look at the North American Model (3km NAM) valid at 3PM CST on Monday. If this model view happened to be right, we would have developing supercell thunderstorms out ahead of a robust QLCS/squall line of thunderstorms that would be advancing eastward. Note that the tornado risk would begin far in advance of the line of storms arriving. The tornado risk would also be greatest when/if supercell storms develop. The damaging wind threat will be greatest AS the main line of storms passes by a given location.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… We will begin the public messaging about this potential severe weather event within the next few hours across social media and in the public-facing sections of the RedZone Weather app. The next RZW Exec update about this severe weather potential will be posted by 4PM on Sunday. As always, let me know if you have any specific decision support needs and/or questions. Have a great Saturday evening!

SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT… RZW Exec members, good Monday afternoon to each of you. This is a brief update to mention that the overall severe weather risk for today/tonight/Tuesday is much lower for our local area. Significant tornadoes will be possible well to our north in the northwestern corner of Alabama, much of the northern half of Mississippi, and the western half of Tennessee. The latest convective outlook depicts this below…

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS… Parameters suggest that while our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida could have a few thunderstorms, the overall severe weather risk is much lower. The Storm Prediction Center maintains much of Clarke, Washington, Monroe, Butler, Choctaw, and Wilcox counties in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone. This means that while a few strong storms could happen, the overall risk is very low. We note that vast majority of our local area is now OUT of the severe weather risk zones.

WHAT TO EXPECT LOCALLY… Clouds will continue to increase across our region today. Rain chances will spike tonight as isolated showers and thunderstorms pop up and stream into the north. There could be a few stronger thunderstorms around our area in the overnight hours and into Tuesday morning. Most of the storms should be gone by 3PM on Tuesday. We have multiple rounds of storms ahead over the next few days, but after Tuesday, the overall severe weather risk locally will remain fairly low.

MORE STORMS LATER THIS WEEK… Our active weather period is NOT over after the storms Tuesday. The cold front driving all of the nasty/severe weather to our north will stall out over our local area Tuesday evening. There will be several rounds of rain and thunderstorms each day through Friday. That is when the next, stronger cold front will sweep through the area paving the way for a dry weekend.

This will be the final RZW Exec update on this particular severe weather event unless parameters change in the days ahead. Please continue to monitor our public-facing products for the very latest. Let me know if you have any specific questions or concerns. Have a great evening!

RZW EXEC SATURDAY UPDATE… RZW Exec, good Saturday afternoon! I’m continuing to monitor a potentially significant severe weather risk setting up for Monday into Tuesday. The core of this severe weather risk will happen across northern Mississippi and Alabama. See the full, detailed public post that I will be posting in the next hour below. A few “off the record” comments for you this afternoon… Based on the latest model data, I think there is a good chance that the severe weather issues will happen to the north of our primary coverage area. You’ll see below that we mention Clarke and Washington counties having the greatest risk of severe weather locally. Yes, a tornado warning could happen across our area, especially north and west of I-65, but the odds of a tornado warning being issued locally remain LOW. The tornado risk will almost certainly set up well to our north.

PUBLIC POST

SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA EARLY NEXT WEEK… The Storm Prediction Center has issued an uncommon Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone for much of northwest Alabama, the northern half of Mississippi, and much of Tennessee. Strong, potentially long track tornadoes will become possible Monday evening into Tuesday across those areas. Locally in south Alabama and northwest Florida, there is now a Level 2 slight risk in place for Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Wilcox, and Marengo counties in west Alabama. While the bigger issues will very likely be to our northwest, there still is a lower-end tornado and damaging wind risk in our local area, especially in west Alabama. Forecast refinements continue to happen so please check back with me on Sunday and Monday in the lead-up to this potentially significant severe weather event. That is the summary – below are the extensive details…

CHANGES SINCE YESTERDAY’S UPDATE… The latest model data has trended a bit farther north for the core of the major severe weather risk setting up for Monday into Tuesday. This is why the Level 3 enhanced risk zone is in place for the northern half of Mississippi (north of I-20), the northwest part of Alabama (northwest of I-59), much of Tennessee, and eastern Arkansas. This bodes well for our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida as confidence is a bit higher that the major issues will be well to our north and west.

GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN ALABAMA… Communities in the Level 3 enhanced risk zone in north/west Alabama have the greatest chance of experiencing a tornado, damaging winds, and large hail. All modes of severe weather will be possible in these areas on Monday into Tuesday: Tuscaloosa, Huntsville, Muscle Shoals, Florence, Cullman, Jasper, Double Springs, Fayette, Hamilton, Carrollton, Aliceville, Russellville, Moulton, Decatur, Athens, and Ardmore. These are the areas where severe weather parameters will likely be highest.

LEVEL 2 RISK FOR MUCH OF THE STATE… The standard, Level 2 slight risk of severe weather is in place for many more communities in Alabama, including some in the local area. These are the areas that have a tornado and damaging wind risk in the slightly lower (but still very significant!) Level 2 zone: Thomasville, Fulton, Grove Hill, Jackson, Leroy, Chatom, McIntosh, Wagerville, Butler, Toxey, Silas, Demopolis, Sweet Water, Linden, Camden, Pine Hill, Selma, Marion, Eutaw, Livingston, Centreville, Prattville, Clanton, Hoover, Birmingham, Leeds, Oneonta, Gadsden, Anniston, Sylacauga, Rockford, Centre, Fort Payne, and Boaz.

EXPECTATIONS FOR LOCAL AREA… The severe weather risk in south Alabama and northwest Florida will happen most likely Monday night into Tuesday morning with the main risk coming from a QLCS/squall line of intense thunderstorms. There is a lower-end risk, especially in west Alabama, of a few discrete supercell thunderstorms happening, but I think core of the supercell risk will be well to our north. For our local area, if you are in Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Monroe, Marengo, or Wilcox counties, you have the highest risk of experiencing severe weather from this event.

LOWER-END RISK FOR MOST FOLKS LOCALLY… There is a low-end, Level 1 marginal risk in place for Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (AL), Santa Rosa, Escambia (FL), Conecuh, Butler, Covington, and Crenshaw counties, meaning an isolated strong storm may happen. Odds are most of these areas will just have general thunderstorms due to what will likely be a weakening line of thunderstorms Tuesday morning.

APP… Before this potential significant round of severe weather happens, NOW is the time to get prepared. Be sure to download the RedZone Weather app and set up customized app alerts. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app on your iOS or Android device, check out the Alerts tab in the lower right corner, then tap on the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to choose which alerts you would like to receive.

Have a great Saturday evening!

TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TO OUR NORTH/WEST NEXT WEEK

RZW Exec members, good morning! Looking ahead to next week, there is a growing consensus that we could have big severe weather issues across the northern half of Alabama late Monday into Tuesday. The severe weather risk seems much lower at this time for the local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Here is the graphic (above) and detailed text discussion (below) that we will post publicly in the next hour. I won’t be saying this statement publicly, but this absolutely could be a major tornado outbreak based on the latest model guidance. Long track, significant, potentially violent tornadoes could happen across Mississippi and the northern half of Alabama, based on the latest guidance.

PUBLIC POST

TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH… There is a growing chance that there could be a significant round of severe weather early next week across portions of Mississippi and central & northern Alabama. The latest model runs, in addition to the experts at the Storm Prediction Center and local National Weather Service offices, are all sounding the alarm on a potential tornado outbreak that may set up across portions of Mississippi and the northern half of Alabama. There is a chance that significant, long track tornadoes may happen Monday into Tuesday across those areas. For south Alabama and northwest Florida, the severe weather risk seems a bit lower at this point, but this will definitely be something to monitor as we go through the weekend. Note that there is still 3 days between now and this potential event so forecast refinements and changes may be necessary. Be sure to check back with me this weekend for the latest. Let’s talk about the details we do know as of now…

GREATEST CONCERN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 80… If you’re in Alabama, the greatest chance of severe weather (based on the latest guidance) will be near and north of U.S. Highway 80. This means that places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden, Jasper, Cullman, Hamilton, Huntsville, Muscle Shoals, Alexander City, Marion, Livingston, Sylacauga, Oneonta, Centre, Fort Payne, Double Springs, Decatur, and surrounding areas will have the potential for a significant round of severe weather.

LONG TRACK TORNADOES POSSIBLE… We will be able to get much more specific about this in the days ahead as more model data pours in, but you should know there is a growing potential for a few long track, significant tornadoes across the northern half of Alabama. There is no way to know specifically when/if and where these will occur just yet, but environmental parameters support the potential for a few big tornadoes.

SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… The severe weather potential for our local coverage area in south Alabama and northwest Florida will be lower than areas to our north and west, but it won’t be zero most likely. The current guidance supports a weakening line of strong to severe thunderstorms moving through on Tuesday morning. This means there will be at least some potential of damaging straight line winds and isolated tornadoes, especially across the northwestern corner of our local area (Clarke, Monroe, Washington counties and areas back to the northwest). Specifics will come into focus over the next day or so.

WHAT IS CAUSING THIS POTENTIAL… An area of low pressure will develop across the lower Mississippi valley region, lifting quickly to the northeast. Behind this area of low pressure to the south, a cold front will develop and move to the southeast. The warm sector will be out ahead of the cold front, where dewpoint values could be in the upper-60s and near 70. This means that the atmosphere is very moist and supportive of severe storms. In addition to plentiful Gulf moisture, there will be strong winds in the upper part of the atmosphere at the base of a digging, negatively-tilted trough. All of these “symptoms” point to a significant round of severe weather setting up for much of the Deep South on Monday into Tuesday.

HAVE A PLAN… Now is the time to review your tornado safety plan that we preach constantly throughout the year to school kids, civic clubs, and pretty much anyone that will listen. When a tornado warning is issued, we encourage you to get to the lowest floor of a well-built, site-built structure in a small, interior room near the center of the structure. This typically means a hallway, closet, or bathroom with no windows. Mobile homes and vehicles are generally not safe during tornadoes. Those are two of the places you absolutely should NOT be during a tornado warning. Everyone should have a helmet or something sturdy to protect your head from flying debris. It looks funny, yes, but they truly are LIFE-saving! Have a way to get the warnings and then DO SOMETHING about it when the warning is issued. So many people get the warnings these days and don’t take any action. That’s a problem. TAKE ACTION when the warning is issued.

APP ALERTS… Thank you so much to the thousands of people who have downloaded and regularly use our free RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the RZW app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner of the app) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you want to receive straight from me.

I’ll have more updates this weekend about this potential round of significant severe storms. Be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app for the very latest. Have a nice Friday evening!

SEVERE WEATHER RISK THURSDAY… RZW Exec members, good evening! Our first significant severe weather risk of the secondary severe weather season will happen tomorrow (Thursday, November 1). Damaging straight line winds and isolated tornadoes will be the main concerns. We expect a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms to move from west to east across our local area during the morning/early afternoon hours of Thursday. Let’s look at a few graphics and talk through these…

SEVERE RISK TO THE WEST TODAY

There is an enhanced (Level 3 out of 5) severe weather risk in place for much of southwest Mississippi, Louisiana, and east Texas this afternoon, this evening, and tonight. A few tornadoes, perhaps a few strong ones, could happen in those areas. This is the same system responsible for our severe weather risk on Thursday. It is setting up now over Texas and Louisiana.

LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK THURSDAY

The latest update (posted at 12:23PM) from the Storm Prediction Center shows all of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida included in a Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid in the daytime hours of Thursday. Communities along and south of a line from Butler to Camden to Union Springs to Eufaula are included in this risk zone. Again, all local areas are included in this standard, slight risk. This means that isolated instances of downed trees and other damage will be possible. Straight line wind gusts are the main concern on Thursday as the squall line moves by, with isolated, embedded, brief tornadoes also being a concern. There is some chance that we could have a few supercell thunderstorms out ahead of the main line of storms that may produce large hail and tornadoes as well. ALL modes of severe weather will be possible Thursday.

PROJECTED RAINFALL TOTALS

Most spots across our local area will pick up 1.5″ to 2.5″ of rain. The greatest chance of a location getting more than 2 inches of rainfall will happen in west Alabama west of the Alabama River in Clarke, Mobile, Washington, Choctaw, and Marengo counties.

DAMAGING WIND RISK TIMES

The damaging straight line wind gusts will be the biggest concern as the QLCS/squall line moves through our region on Thursday. This line of storms will most likely move through between 9AM and 3PM. That is when we have the elevated risk of damaging wind gusts.

TORNADO RISK TIMES

If we have discrete supercell thunderstorms form out ahead of the main line of thunderstorms on Thursday, we will need to not only increase the risk of tornadoes, but also bump back the timing a little bit as the cells will form in advance of the main line of storms passing through. Unfortunately, there’s no way to know just yet whether supercell thunderstorms will form out ahead of this line. Regardless, we’ll be in studio starting at 5AM on Thursday monitoring trends and bringing you the very latest in our public-facing products.

FINAL RZW EXEC UPDATE… This is the final RZW Exec update in advance of this severe weather potential as my focus will now shift to preparing for our live video updates tonight and on Thursday. Please continue to monitor the front page of the RedZone Weather app for the very latest. Per our usual policy, if we have any tornado warnings for any part of our 12 county coverage area, we will be streaming live video coverage across our platforms. Let me know if you have any specific questions or concerns. Have a great evening!

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THURSDAY

THURSDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK… RZW Exec partners, good evening! The severe weather risk continues to evolve and set up for Thursday, November 1. Much of Wednesday will be dry and nice for Halloween/trick-or-treaters across the region. There could be an isolated shower or two in Clarke, Choctaw, Washington, and Mobile counties in west Alabama, but vast majority of our region will be warm and dry on Wednesday. The severe weather potential is in place for Thursday, particularly during the daytime hours. A few tornadoes will be possible, but clearly the greatest risk will be due to damaging straight line winds capable of knocking down a few trees across the region.

NOTE ABOUT RISK LEVELS… I would strongly encourage everyone to not get so caught up in the risk numbers/colors and instead focus on the potential impacts (which in this case are damaging straight line winds and isolated, brief tornadoes). Most public questions I get in situations like this have to do with the risk number/color. There IS a chance SPC will up this risk to a Level 3/enhanced/orange risk in their overnight update, but the impacts likely won’t change that much. The one caveat to this statement is IF the tornado parameters rise for potential isolated supercell thunderstorms out ahead of the main line of storms. THAT could be a potential “game changer,” but for now, the overall risk of supercell storms seems pretty low. Good news. We’ll keep monitoring trends and alert you during the daytime hours of Wednesday, if need be.

TIMING OF STORMS… There is high confidence at this point that the greatest chance of severe weather, including the risk of a few brief tornadoes, will happen between 9AM and 5PM on Thursday in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. The severe weather risk will end behind the squall line from west to east. The timing/risk levels is depicted in the graphic below.

TIMING & RISK LEVELS

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… A QLCS/squall line will move into southwest Alabama late in the morning hours of Thursday. Damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms and maybe a brief, spin-up tornado or two will be the main concerns. A widespread, damaging severe weather/tornado outbreak seems unlikely as of now. Widespread flash flooding issues should be limited as the storms will be racing to the east at a rapid clip. 1-3″ of rain is likely areawide.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… Our public messaging will continue today, tonight, and all day on Wednesday about this severe weather potential for Thursday. My next update for RZW Exec members will be posted here in the Tactical Ops Room by 5PM on Wednesday, October 31 (tomorrow). Please let me know if you have any specific questions or concerns. Have a great evening!

ANOTHER POTENTIAL TORNADO RISK… We’ve had a very few active weather months with that trend continuing this week. A cold front moving in from the northwest will create at least some potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Thursday. I expect the Storm Prediction Center to introduce a Level 1 or Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk for our local area valid for Thursday. They will issue this in their next round of updates overnight, so this RZW Exec post serves as an “early heads up” that our severe weather messaging will likely be ramping up over the next 48-72 hours.

TIMING OF STORMS… Most model guidance points to a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS, aka a squall line) setting up to our west in Mississippi and tracking to the east in the morning hours of Thursday. This means that the greatest chance of severe weather, including the risk of a few brief tornadoes, will happen between 7AM and 4PM on Thursday.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms and maybe a brief, spin-up tornado or two will be the main concerns. A widespread, damaging severe weather/tornado outbreak seems unlikely as of now. Flash flooding issues should be limited as the storms will be racing to the east at a rapid clip.

COMPARED TO LAST WEEK… This is a similar weather pattern setup to our severe weather potential that happened last week, but I do think that this system has the potential to be a bit more potent and produce a few more storms, comparatively, as parameters off the model data seem a bit more robust and supportive of a few stronger storms.

RISK LEVELS… Now that we are entering secondary severe weather/tornado season around our area, it’s a good time to review the risk levels and what they mean. Below is a review graphic explaining the different risk levels. Instead of using proprietary, subjective indices (like Tor:Con and some others that are subjective and terrible in my opinion), I use the industry standard convective outlook forecasts produced by the incredible meteorologists at the Storm Prediction Center.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… We will likely begin our public messaging about this event as early as this evening. My next update for RZW Exec members will be posted here in the Tactical Ops Room by 7PM on Tuesday, October 30 (tomorrow). As always, please let me know if you have any specific questions or concerns. Have a great evening!

FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK… RZW Exec members, good morning! The forecast for today has not changed: A few brief, spin-up tornadoes are possible today into tonight near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. There is no tornado risk for inland areas. Heavy rain is likely at times throughout the day into tonight across coastal AND inland areas. I’ll be posting the following forecast discussion publicly around 9:05AM with a Medium-Level Alert push notification here in the RZWeather app. Here is an exclusive preview for you…

MORNING SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE

STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR COAST THIS EVENING… There continues to be a low-end, marginal chance of a brief tornado or two near the immediate Alabama and northwest Florida beaches this evening into the overnight hours. The tornado risk this evening will be confined to the coast. Inland areas have no severe weather risk, as the air is more stable north of I-10. The big story for most of us throughout the day will be heavy rain.

ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE NEAR BEACHES… If you’re in Dauphin Island, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Pensacola Beach, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Mary Esther, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, or Destin, your severe weather risk remains very low. It’s not zero, but the overall risk of a tornado happening in any of these areas remains very low. The key in these areas will be if the warm front can move north into these areas. If that happens, the tornado risk would marginally increase. I’ll be watching trends throughout the day. Regardless of tornado development, heavy rain that could lead to instances of flash flooding will be happening throughout the day into tonight.

LITTLE TO NO SEVERE RISK INLAND… If in or near Brewton, Atmore, Thomasville, Monroeville, Evergreen, Greenville, Andalusia, Opp, Bay Minette, Chatom, Butler, or Citronelle, your severe weather risk today into tonight is basically near zero. The storms that happen in these areas will be elevated in nature and very likely NOT severe. Heavy rain will still happen intermittently in these inland communities throughout the day into tonight.

COVERAGE POLICY… Long-time viewers and readers know that anytime we have a tornado warning issued for any part of our 12 county primary coverage area (defined here) we go LIVE across our platforms, bringing you the very latest.

LIVE STREAMING RADAR… Since this will be an active weather today with a very low-end risk of severe weather, we will stream live, uninterrupted radar coverage in the Radar tab of the RedZone Weather app starting later this morning around 11:45AM. That’s when the radar is looping, but I’m not on camera. I’ll come on camera only if severe weather/tornado warnings happen.

APP ALERTS… Be sure to set up your customized alerts in the RedZone Weather app before warnings are issued! Check out the Alerts tab (lower right corner in the RZWeather app) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive straight from me.

UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY… I’ll have plenty of updates in the RedZone Weather app and on Twitter in the hours ahead. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a great Thursday!

TORNADO RISK VERY LOW FOR P.M. THURSDAY… RZW Exec members, good evening! There is strong agreement that there will be little to no issues, in terms of a severe weather threat, for Thursday into Thursday night. Out of a complete abundance of caution and due to the respect I have for the North American Model (NAM), we will continue to publicly suggest a VERY LOW (not zero) tornado risk for the immediate beach areas for Thursday evening into the overnight hours. I would suggest at this point there is an 80-90% chance that no tornado warnings will be needed with this event. That means, however, that there is a very low 10-20% chance that we could have a brief, spin-up tornado. This is completely conditional, based on the placement of the northward-advancing warm front from the Gulf. Odds suggest that the front won’t cross the coast to the north, which is a good thing! I’ll be up late on Thursday monitoring radar trends closely, just in case we happen to have a tornado warning near the coast. It should be heavily emphasized that the severe weather risk for inland areas (basically all areas north of I-10) is at or near zero.

Confidence remains high that this will be a heavy rain event with some nuisance-type flash flooding issues. This won’t be a major flash flood event, but I can’t rule out isolated instances of flash flooding both near the coast and over inland areas.

SEVERITY… Intermittent times of heavy rain will almost certainly happen on Thursday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. This means that isolated flash flooding will be possible in spots. The tornado risk remains NEAR ZERO for inland counties. The tornado risk near the immediate coastline remains VERY LOW, but not zero.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED… The low-end tornado risk, if it materializes, will set up in the southern part of coastal counties (Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia [FL], Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa). The low-end risk for flash flooding will be areawide, including inland areas.

TIMELINE OF IMPACTS… Rain and general thunderstorms will be possible starting early on Thursday. If an isolated tornadoes happen near the coast, the risk is greatest between 3PM and 11PM on Thursday. Rain and storms will move out late Thursday night into early Friday. Clearing skies are expected starting midday on Friday.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… This is be the final update for this event in RZW Exec. Signficant issues are NOT expected due to this passing area of low pressure. We will continue our public messaging about this potential, low-end severe weather risk for coastal areas on Twitter and in public-facing sections of the RZWeather app today into tomorrow. As always, let me know if you have any questions or concerns.

TORNADO RISK LESSENS FOR THURSDAY… RZW Exec members, good evening! Confidence is higher today that the tornado risk across coastal Alabama and northwest Florida will be quite limited. Yesterday, there was a good bit of model divergence concerning the extent of the tornado potential across coastal areas. Most models keep the center of the area of low pressure to our south and offshore. This means that vast majority of our area would be NORTH of the accompanying warm front, meaning odds are we won’t have any significant severe weather issues to contend with in south Alabama or northwest Florida. That being said, the tornado risk at the coast is not zero just yet. Because of this, we will continue to advertise a “low-end risk” of tornadic storms near the immediate Alabama and northwest Florida coastline for Thursday. Rainfall will be the big story, with some spots getting 2-3″ of rain in total.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS… A brief, isolated tornado or two will be possible, mainly along and south of Interstate 10 in Alabama and northwest Florida on Thursday into Thursday night. There is a significant chance that the tornado risk will NOT materialize due to the placement of the warm front being to our south. Heavy rain, however, is likely throughout the day on Thursday, meaning isolated instances of flash flooding could become possible. Regardless of if the tornado risk materializes, heavy rain and flash flooding concerns will be in place. You can see in the model output image (below) that Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE, aka atmospheric instability) values will be very low across vast majority of our area valid at 7PM on Thursday, with the higher CAPE values located offshore. Instability is one ingredient that can significantly influence whether storms become severe.

SEVERITY… Intermittent times of heavy rain will almost certainly happen on Thursday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. This means that isolated flash flooding will be possible in spots. The tornado risk remains NEAR ZERO for inland counties. The tornado risk near the immediate coastline remains LOW, but not zero.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED… The low-end tornado risk, if it materializes, will set up in the southern part of coastal counties (Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia [FL], Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa). The low-end risk for flash flooding will be areawide, including inland areas.

TIMELINE OF IMPACTS… Rain and general thunderstorms are possible as early as 1AM Thursday. If an isolated tornadoes happen near the coast, the risk is greatest between 10AM and 10PM on Thursday. Rain and storms will move out late Thursday night into early Friday. Clearing skies are expected starting midday on Friday.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… My next RZW Exec update will be posted by 5PM tomorrow (Wednesday, October 24). We will continue our public messaging about this potential, low-end severe weather risk for coastal areas on Twitter and in public-facing sections of the RZWeather app today into tomorrow. As always, let me know if you have any questions or concerns.

ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE THURSDAY… RZW Exec members, good evening. There is an increasing, but still low-end, chance that we could see a few isolated, brief tornadoes on Thursday across our coastal counties. Thursday will be quite wet across the region as an area of low pressure moves near our coastline or just to the south. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty as to where this surface low will track, and honestly the specific track will determine whether or not tornadoes will happen. Some models keep the center of the low offshore, which would bode MUCH better for our area and eliminate the severe weather risk. Other models show the area of low pressure tracking farther inland, meaning areas south of the accompanying warm front would be in a zone where tornadoes would be possible.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS… Isolated tornadoes possible, mainly along and south of Interstate 10 in Alabama and northwest Florida. Heavy rain is likely throughout the day on Thursday, meaning isolated instances of flash flooding could become possible. Regardless of if the tornado risk materializes, heavy rain and flash flooding concerns will be in place.

SEVERITY… Low-end risk of a few, brief, isolated tornadoes… Most areas will have general rain and storms with little in the way of significant impacts.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED… The low-end tornado risk will almost certainly be in coastal counties (Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia [FL], Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa). The low-end risk for flash flooding will be areawide, including inland areas.

TIMELINE OF IMPACTS… Rain and general thunderstorms are possible as early as 1AM Wednesday. The severe weather risk could kick off as early as 5AM and extend well into Wednesday evening. For now, we’ll go with a core severe weather timeframe of 8AM Wednesday to 8PM Wednesday. Rain and storms will move out late Thursday night into early Friday. Clearing skies are expected starting midday on Friday.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… My next RZW Exec update will be posted by 5PM tomorrow (Tuesday, October 23). We will begin our public messaging about this potential, low-end severe weather risk later this evening.

MICHAEL LIKELY TO PASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST… RZW Exec partners, good morning! The latest projected path/forecast from the National Hurricane Center continues to show that much of the impact from Hurricane Michael will happen near or just to our southeast. This could be a potentially devastating hurricane for areas in Bay and Gulf counties in the Florida Panhandle, in areas near Panama City, Tyndall Air Force Base, Mexico Beach, and Port Saint Joe.

The following potential impacts statements have been modified slightly for south Alabama and northwest Florida.

HIGH WIND POTENTIAL… Since Hurricane Michael will likely be a major hurricane at landfall, there is a high chance that the wind field associated with the landfalling system may be quite large. The hurricane force winds won’t extend outward very far compared to the much larger tropical storm force wind field. Please notice the verbiage in the graphic above, in that each zone is a POSSIBLE zone. These are (at this time) the higher end of how strong winds will be in a given area. There is a good chance that winds across our area in south Alabama and northwest Florida won’t reach the high numbers in the outlined zones in the graphic above. Clearly, the greatest chance of strong winds in our area will almost certainly happen in Okaloosa, southern Santa Rosa, and southern Covington counties. The stronger winds are likely to be in Walton, Bay, and Gulf counties in the Florida Panhandle.

TORNADO POTENTIAL… The right, front quadrant of Tropical Storm Michael will be the most likely area for tornadoes to happen. There is high confidence that our local area will be on the WEST side of the system, meaning the tornado risk would be much, much lower (if not zero) for most of us. This would mean an enhanced risk of tornadoes for areas along and east of the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Dothan, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola). If a rogue, brief, spin-up tornado happened to occur in our local area, it would likely happen in Okaloosa or Covington counties.

HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL… Regardless of how strong Michael becomes OR where the center makes landfall, heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding will be a concern across the eastern fringe of our local area. The greatest risk of flash flooding will almost certainly be in Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, and Covington counties. 2-3” of rain will be possible in portions of these counties with lesser rain amounts to the north and east. Some spots in Clarke and Washington counties may not have any rain. 7-8” of rain is not out of the question for areas near/east the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola).

Let me know if you have any questions or need decision support as far as your organization or business! Plenty of updates will be posted today in the public-facing areas of the RedZone Weather app. If you missed our live morning video, I would encourage you to watch it as it is packed with the latest information! Here is the link for the video and the extremely detailed text discussion.

Have a great Tuesday!

UPDATE FOR WIND IMPACTS… RZW Exec partners, this is a very brief update for you as I am in the process of getting our evening live video update prepared. The biggest change to pass along this evening is an updated “high wind potential” graphic that will debut publicly in the live video. Note that because of the significant westward shift in the projected path of Hurricane Michael issued in the 4PM advisory by the National Hurricane Center, as a course of least regret, we are including many more areas in our local area into classified wind zones. The core of the impacts locally are still expected to be in Okaloosa County. Southern Santa Rosa and Covington counties may also have high winds at times, very contingent on the actual track of the center of Hurricane Michael. Note that I’m erring on the side of wind speed values being a little too high rather than too low. This is primarily due to the continued track uncertainty that looms large in the forecast.

RZW Exec partners, good evening! We will be doing a LIVE video update on Facebook and here in the RedZone Weather app in 20-30 minutes as we bring the RedZone community the latest on Hurricane Michael. I’ve just finished an updated text discussion that will accompany the video in the app. Here is an exclusive first look so you can have a heads up of the messaging we will bring the public. Please reach out if you have specific questions I can help you with as far as decision support. Thanks.

MICHAEL LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL…
HURRICANE WARNINGS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED TONIGHT… Hurricane Michael is moving north and continues to organize in the Yucatan Channel. The system will cross into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico tonight. While Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for many locales in our area, the greatest concern continues to be for areas just to our southeast. The core of Michael is expected to make landfall in the Florida panhandle as a major hurricane most likely in the daytime hours of Wednesday. A “last minute” turn to the northeast should prevent significant issues from occurring across much of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida, although there is still major uncertainty as to WHEN this turn will begin. Unfortunately, there still is enough uncertainty in the forecast to warrant a Hurricane Watch for our northwest Florida coastal counties.

TROUGH TO FLING MICHAEL NORTHEAST… It may seem hard to believe, but a big upper-level trough currently situated over the Rocky Mountains in the western United States is the driver for exactly where Hurricane Michael will end up. If Michael moves slower today into tomorrow as it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico, there’s a very high chance that the northeasterly turn will begin over the Gulf of Mexico. This would be the desirable scenario for south Alabama and northwest Florida, as the core of Michael would likely miss our area to the southeast. IF, however, Michael starts moving faster over the southern Gulf into tonight, there’s a chance the hurricane could move farther to the north, thus increasing our chance of significant impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida. I’ve got a detailed look at a few model scenarios in the video. Be sure to check it out.

HURRICANE WATCH FOR NW FLORIDA COUNTIES… The following counties are included in a Hurricane Watch in northwest Florida: Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, and Escambia [FL]. Just to our east, Walton, Bay, Gulf, Franklin, Calhoun [FL], Liberty, Jackson [FL], Washington [FL], and Holmes counties are included in the Hurricane Watch. The reason the hurricane watch has been issued is because hurricane conditions are possible in the next 48 hours, especially at the immediate coastline. This hurricane watch includes places like Pensacola, Milton, Navarre, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Opal Beach, Mary Esther, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Eglin AFB, Panama City, Port St. Joe, Apalachicola, Mexico Beach, Carrabelle, St. George Island, Eastpoint, Tyndall AFB, Laguna Beach, Rosemary Beach, and Seaside.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTH ALABAMA COUNTIES… Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia [AL], Monroe, Conecuh, Butler and Covington counties are all now under a Tropical Storm Watch in our local area. Just to our east, Crenshaw, Coffee, Geneva, Dale, Houston, and Henry counties are involved in the tropical storm watch as well. There is a good chance that tropical storm conditions won’t happen across many of the interior counties of southwest Alabama, although until we have more confidence in the track guidance, I think it’s a great preemptive move on the part of NWS/NHC to have these counties included in the Tropical Storm Watch.

UPDATED POTENTIAL IMPACTS ASSESSMENT… So much will depend on the exact track of Hurricane Michael in the days ahead. Note that the following potential impacts assessment is for south Alabama and northwest Florida, areas mainly to the west of where the center of Michael is forecast to be over the next few days.

HIGH WIND POTENTIAL… Since Hurricane Michael may be a major hurricane at landfall, there is a growing chance that the wind field associated with the landfalling system may be quite large. In addition, since we’re still not entirely sure where the core of the hurricane will move inland, that is why we have a hurricane watch in effect from AL/FL border eastward to the Suwanee River. The hurricane force winds won’t extend outward very far compared to the much larger tropical storm force wind field, however because of track uncertainty, it is a prudent move to have the Hurricane Watch in place for many more areas. As of this moment, the official NHC forecast “cone of uncertainty” shows that there is a significant chance the core of Michael will pass just to the southeast of our local area. This would put vast majority of the local area on the “better” western side of the system. IF this scenario pans out, inland areas of southwest Alabama would have very little in the way of wind impacts. Gusty winds (20-30mph) would still be possible at the immediate coastline/beach areas. I caution, however, that the cone of uncertainty extends from near Pensacola eastward to Cedar Key, FL. That is still a very wide swath of coastline where the center of circulation may make landfall. If the track shifts farther west in future advisories, we will have to significantly adjust the high wind potential impacts for our local area.

TORNADO POTENTIAL… The right, front quadrant of Tropical Storm Michael will be the most likely area for tornadoes to happen. IF current forecast trends verify, much of our local area would be on the WEST side of the system, meaning the tornado risk would be much, much lower (if not zero) for most of us. This would mean an enhanced risk of tornadoes for areas along and east of the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Dothan, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola). IF the center of circulation makes more of a northerly jog toward Laguna Beach or Destin, however, there could be a tornado risk across Walton, Okaloosa, Covington counties, in addition to the Florida Panhandle and the Wiregrass region of southeast Alabama.

HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL… Regardless of how strong Michael becomes OR where the center makes landfall, heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding will be a concern across the eastern fringe of our local area. The greatest risk of flash flooding would almost certainly be in Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, and Covington counties IF current forecast trends verify. 2-3” of rain will be possible in these counties with lesser rain amounts to the north and east. 7-8” of rain is not out of the question for areas near/east the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola).

STORM SURGE POTENTIAL… A Storm Surge Warning will go into effect later this evening for much of the Florida Panhandle. If you live near or at the immediate coastline, TAKE THE STORM SURGE THREAT SERIOUSLY. 8-10 feet of water rise is not out of the question in low-lying areas near the immediate beaches near and south of Panama City. Storm surge of 2-4 feet is not out of the question at Destin, Fort Walton Beach, and points just to the east and west of there. Again, if you get an evacuation order, HEED IT and leave! Storm surge kills way too many people in our nation.

Let me know if you have any questions. Have a nice Monday evening!

T.S. MICHAEL STRENGTHENING

MICHAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN… Tropical Storm Michael is gaining strength quickly in the northwestern part of the Caribbean Sea this evening. Maximum sustained winds are now at 60mph. I would not be surprised if Michael becomes a hurricane on Monday as it continues to slowly move north. The forward rate of speed will increase in the hours ahead and Michael will be moving over the very warm (86-87°) waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico.

A NOTE ABOUT INTENSITY GUIDANCE… I will be mentioning this publicly this evening, but I won’t be using the language I’m using here. Because RZW Exec is a private program designed for community leaders, I’m going to be blunt in my assessment with you this evening: There is a small, but growing (25%) chance that Michael rapidly strengthens over the next 48 hours. Some of the intensity guidance off of the major global models (ECMWF/Euro, GFS, etc.) suggests a category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall. These are definitely outliers in the data as of now, but very concerning nonetheless. MOST of the intensity guidance peaks as a category 2 hurricane at landfall, which is reflected in the latest NHC forecast. I expect the official NHC intensity forecast to be adjusted slightly higher in the next 12-24 hours to properly account for this possibility.

HOPEFULLY CURRENT FORECAST WILL VERIFY… If the current projected path (depicted in the graphic above) verifies, (and all current model data suggests that it will) that would be EXCELLENT news for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Unfortunately, this would be a potentially damaging scenario for much of the Florida Panhandle near Panama City, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola, Blountstown, and Marianna. There could be extensive damage in those areas as high (100+ mph potentially) winds happen when Michael moves by. The good news is ALL of our local area would be on the “better” western flank of the system. This means the winds would be out of the north for us, creating an offshore flow at the coastline. Heavy rain would be a concern across parts of Okaloosa, Walton, and Covington counties in addition to the Florida Panhandle and the Wiregrass, but southwest Alabama and much of northwest Florida would be spared if the current forecast verifies.

TIMELINE OF IMPACTS… We’ll need to watch the leading feeder bands that approach the northwest Florida late Tuesday evening. I would not be surprised if the first rain/feeder bands reach the coastline late Tuesday evening or very early in the morning on Wednesday. Okaloosa County is the only county in our primary coverage area that will have any type of significant impacts if the current forecast verifies. Impacts will be most likely during the daytime hours of Wednesday from 6AM to 6PM. That is the core 12 hour window that is most likely to feature impacts in Okaloosa County. Obviously this can change, but that’s the latest thinking based on the NHC forecast and model data.

HIGH WIND POTENTIAL… The most dangerous area of strong winds will almost certainly happen near and east of the center of circulation. As of this moment, the official NHC forecast “cone of uncertainty” shows that there is a significant chance the core of Michael will pass just to the southeast of our local area. This would put vast majority of the local area on the “better” western side of the system. IF this scenario pans out, inland areas of southwest Alabama would have very little in the way of wind impacts. Gusty winds (20-30mph) would still be possible at the immediate coastline/beach areas. I caution, however, that the cone of uncertainty extends from near Pensacola eastward to Cedar Key, FL. That is still a very wide swath of coastline where the center of circulation may make landfall. If the track shifts farther west in future advisories, we will have to significantly adjust the high wind potential impacts for our local area.

TORNADO POTENTIAL… The right, front quadrant of Tropical Storm Michael will be the most likely area for tornadoes to happen. IF current forecast trends verify, much of our local area would be on the WEST side of the system, meaning the tornado risk would be much, much lower (if not zero) for us. This would mean an enhanced risk of tornadoes for areas along and east of the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Dothan, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola).

HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL… Regardless of how strong Michael becomes OR where the center makes landfall, heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding will be a concern across the eastern fringe of our local area. The greatest risk of flash flooding would almost certainly be in Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, and Covington counties IF current forecast trends verify. 2-3” of rain will be possible in these counties with lesser rain amounts to the north and east. 5-6” of rain is not out of the question for areas near/east the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Dothan, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola). Overall, this will likely be more a nuisance than anything hazardous, based on current trends.

STORM SURGE POTENTIAL… The common theme continues in the storm surge category in that significant storm surge will be possible along and east of the center of circulation. There could be some storm surge in northwest Florida to the west of the center as well, but I do think because of the offshore flow, that will help to mitigate some of the storm surge issues on the western flank of the storm.

GOOD NEWS, FOR NOW… It’s good news, for now. The core of what will likely be a strengthening Hurricane Michael will pass just to our southeast, potentially bringing multiple hazardous to counties just to our southeast in the Florida Panhandle. Forecast changes ARE possible, and it’s important that we do not let our guard down just yet. I have cancelled my presentation schedule through Wednesday evening to continue to be in studio keeping tabs on this developing storm.

Please reach out if you have specific questions and please continue to monitor my public-facing statements for the latest information. I’m grateful for the support of our RedZone Weather sponsors who empower me to bring the latest information to the people of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Thanks again for your support.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… Tomorrow: Monday, October 8, 2018.

TROPICAL ISSUES LIKELY MIDWEEK

GROWING CHANCE OF LOCAL IMPACTS… There is now a significant chance that local impacts will happen in south Alabama and northwest Florida as what will likely be Tropical Storm/Hurricane Michael approaches from the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days. Unfortunately, there is still so much we do not know yet. Much of the uncertainty is because weather models do not perform well until the low-level circulation has actually formed. Regardless, models have been consistent in suggesting a northern Gulf Coast landfall at some point between Wednesday and Friday.

RZW EXEC

RZW EXEC EXCLUSIVE LOOK AT MODELS… This section won’t appear in our public-facing products as I don’t believe it is wise to show “one run solutions” to the public. Models have been consistent in suggesting a northern Gulf Coast landfall, somewhere between Cameron, Louisiana eastward to Cedar Key, Florida. That is a wide stretch of coastline that includes our local area.

First, let’s look at the reliable ECMWF/Euro model. The Euro has a strong tropical storm or cat. 1 hurricane (65-80mph max. winds) moving onshore centered near Navarre, FL. At the moment, the Euro suggests a landfall Thursday afternoon. The “angle of attack” is SSW to NNE, meaning much of our area would be on the “better” western side of the system, although this may be negated somewhat by the fact that the inner core of the storm will move directly over our eastern counties in this scenario. Here is the Euro valid at 7PM CDT on Thursday evening (aka 0Z time Friday). This is the 850mb (~5,000 feet above ground level) winds…

The next run of the Euro will be released around 1:30PM CDT. Despite this being the ‘best data’ around, runs of the Euro are only released two times per day, unlike many of the other models which are released 4+ times per day.

The second model we’ll look at is the latest run of the Global Forecast System (GFS), our American-based model. This is the latest run that was released moments ago. The GFS has consistently been much more bullish on intensity, and this run is no exception. It has a 970mb hurricane moving inland near Pensacola Beach, FL on Wednesday morning at 7AM. This would likely equate to a category 2 hurricane. Again, this is certainly on the upper echelon of the intensity guidance as of now and is probably somewhat of an outlier on the high end. The GFS also has a general SSE to NNW movement. If this solution verifies, there would likely be potentially significant impacts across much of south Alabama and northwest Florida. High winds, tornadoes, storm surge at the coast, etc.

Below is the final model we’ll assess in today’s update, the Canadian standard model. The Canadian shows a strengthening Tropical Storm Michael moving inland near the Alabama/Mississippi state line with much of our local area being on the volatile right-front quadrant of the storm. We note that at peak intensity on the Canadian data, Michael maxes out as a moderate tropical storm. The Canadian model shows a landfall happening on Wednesday morning.

THE BIG TAKEAWAYS… Now that you’ve seen 3 models with brief analysis, you probably have a better grasp of the uncertainty we’re dealing with. Despite the uncertainty, the model trends and signals are consistently suggesting:

1) A very high (80-90%) chance of tropical storm formation in the next 72 hours in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico.

2) Potential impacts along the northern Gulf Coast. Impacts for specific areas will become more clear in the days ahead as we figure out the exact forecast track of this system. At bare minimum, we’re talking increased rain chances for south Alabama and northwest Florida. On the other end of the spectrum, borderline major hurricane impacts featuring high winds, tornadoes, storm surge, and flash flooding. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle of those two extreme scenarios.

3) A northern Gulf Coast landfall is likely. As we’ve been advertising, the range of landfall locations seems to be between Cameron, Louisiana eastward to Cedar Key, Florida. That includes much of the Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and NW Florida coastline.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… BY Sunday at 10PM CDT at the latest, but likely sooner. Feel free to contact me if you have specific questions. We’re in somewhat of a holding pattern until the low-level center of circulation forms.

TROPICAL STORM LIKELY IN GULF IN DAYS AHEAD… There is now a high (70-80%) chance that a tropical storm or hurricane may happen in the Gulf of Mexico in the next 7 days. While it is still too early to say with confidence that local impacts will happen in portions of south Alabama and northwest Florida, odds are increasing that this will be a storm that passes near or over our local area. We note that several models show the system moving directly over our primary coverage area from south to north, although I caution that it remains too early to say that will definitely happen. Let’s talk details…

CURRENT SITUATION… As of now, we have a developing area of low pressure in the western Caribbean Sea. Here is the latest synopsis from the National Hurricane Center: “Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located near Cabo Gracias a Dios on the eastern border of Honduras and Nicaragua have become more concentrated during the past several hours. Although strong winds aloft are located just to the north of this system, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive enough to allow slow development, and a tropical depression could form by late this weekend or early next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico while the system moves slowly northwestward.”

BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT… Yesterday in our RZW Exec update, I mentioned that there were a few model ideas that had a wide variety of potential impacts for the Gulf Coast. Today, (unfortunately for our local area) there is substantial model agreement that a tropical storm or hurricane will develop in the Gulf and move northward. There is still notable model divergence as far as where the system ends up. Some models (like the Canadian) show a landfall farther west in Louisiana. Most models (like the ECMWF/Euro) show a northwest Florida or AL/MS landfall. Some show a Florida Panhandle landfall just to our east near Panama City (like the latest GFS run). The big takeaway here is that local impacts seem possible based on the continuing model trends.

INTENSITY TO BE DETERMINED… Intensity guidance quality will improve once the system actually develops. For now, most global models suggest this will be a tropical storm that moves from south to north across the Gulf. There are a few outliers that suggest the system may ramp up to a category 1 or 2 hurricane, although those are OUTLIER model scenarios as of now.

“EAST IS BEAST, WEST IS BEST”… I hate to “wish” a hurricane/tropical storm on anyone, but the best case scenario for our local area (south Alabama and northwest Florida) would be for this system to make landfall TO OUR EAST, putting us on the “better” west side. Generally, the worst impacts (including the tornado threat) is worse on the right, front quadrant of the system. In this case, that means the north/east side. That’s why you’ll occasionally hear me say in our public coverage that, “The east is the beast and the west is the best.” The latest run of the Global Forecast System (GFS) has this scenario taking shape, although again, this is ONE run and there will definitely be other ideas produced in the GFS in subsequent runs. Take the below image with a proverbial grain of salt.

NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE… We’re headed into the weekend. I am taking some time this afternoon to review our Hurricane Contingency Plan with our team. While this still very well could be a “miss” or “near miss” for our local area, the trends in the data support us being on heightened alert for a potential tropical storm or hurricane impact.

LOCATIONS… Folks in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida should all closely monitor the progress of this system as it develops in the days ahead. That includes the entirety of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida as local impacts will be possible. Details will become more clear as we continue to process more model data over the next few days.

TIMEFRAME… Some significant changes in this subject area! Don’t be surprised if our “best estimates” for the timeline of local impacts changes MORE in the days ahead based on new data. Depending on when the system actually forms a low-level circulation and is classified as a tropical cyclone, impacts could begin as early as Tuesday night or extend to as late as Saturday. Wednesday, October 10 through Friday, October 12 is the best estimate for when local impacts are most likely in south Alabama and northwest Florida and that is IF (and that’s a big if, at this point) local impacts happen. That is a large timeframe that we will be able to get more specific with in the days ahead. Again, further changes are expected.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE…  Tomorrow (Saturday, October 5) by 1:30PM CDT. Friendly reminder: I post new information *frequently* in the public-facing section of the RedZone Weather app. Please let the public-facing information feed into your decision-making processes as well.

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Have a good evening!

SYNOPSIS… There is an increasing chance that a tropical storm may form in the southern Gulf of Mexico in 2-5 days. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center now shows there is a 40% chance that the area of low pressure we’ve been monitoring in the western Caribbean Sea becomes a tropical storm this weekend. It is still too early to know for sure whether local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will happen. Some models do show the potential for local impacts at this early stage of this monitoring process, including the reliable ECMWF (Euro) model.

RELIABLE EURO SUGGESTS HURRICANE… Long-time RZW viewers/readers know that I strongly advise against getting caught up in “one model” solutions. Weather forecasts should be derived from a wide variety of models and data. I won’t post the below image publicly because of that. Below is one model idea from the ECMWF (European) model valid on Friday, October 12 at 7PM CDT. If this solution happens to be correct, it has a strong tropical storm or cat. 1 hurricane moving southwest to northeast just south of our area with a landfall near Fort Walton Beach being possible. Again, this is only one model idea!

OTHER MODEL IDEAS… The Euro/ECMWF model has consistently painted the idea of a tropical storm/hurricane moving north in the Gulf of Mexico in that timeframe. The American-based GFS completely discounts this idea with the area of low pressure remaining weak. Other U.S.- and Canadian-based models show the potential for a hurricane in the Gulf. Discrepancies like this should be expected, as we are still 2-5 days out from the development of this system. Models generally perform better once the system has actually formed.

LOCATIONS… Unfortunately, it is entirely too early to be specific about potential impacts for specific locations. Folks in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida should all closely monitor the progress of this system as it develops in the days ahead. That includes  the entirety of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Details will become more clear as we continue to process more model data over the next few days.

TIMEFRAME… Local impacts will depend on IF the system develops into a tropical storm/hurricane AND if the track is geographically close to our local area. Thursday, October 11 through Sunday, October 14 is the best estimate for when local impacts are most likely in south Alabama and northwest Florida and that is IF (and that’s a big if, at this point) local impacts happen. That is a large timeframe that we will be able to get more specific with in the days ahead. Again, plenty of variables and uncertainties!

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE…  Tomorrow (Friday, October 5) by 1:30PM CDT.

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Have a good evening!

Good Monday morning, RZW Exec partners! We’re tracking 5 (yes, 5) tropical systems in the Atlantic basin today. Let me say upfront that while we have several systems in the tropics, at the moment, there are no tropical-related threats for south Alabama and northwest Florida. A tropical wave will come fairly close to our area later this week when it likely moves into Texas. Hurricane Florence will likely bring catastrophic impacts to parts of North Carolina and South Carolina in the days ahead. I’ve got an update for you on that system below if you have folks on the ground there or assets in the area. Please also see my personal note at the conclusion of this post.

BROAD OVERVIEW

Hurricanes Florence, Isaac, and Helene are active in the Atlantic, spaced between the U.S. and Africa. We’re also watching a tropical wave currently producing heavy rain over the western Caribbean Sea that will move into the western Gulf of Mexico in the days ahead. Another tropical disturbance is developing well east of Bermuda and won’t affect land over the next few days. Here is the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) showing all of this…

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING NORTHWEST

An area of clouds and storms is currently situated in the western Caribbean Sea near the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico/Belize). This is a tropical wave at the moment. NHC suggests there is an increasing risk (40% chance at the moment) of tropical storm formation as this system continues slowly moving northwest. While it’s important to forecast all of these systems with multiple models, the ECMWF (Euro) model continues to perform well this hurricane season. The Euro has a tropical storm moving into Texas, perhaps just south of Houston/Galveston, on Thursday into Friday. Impacts from this tropical wave seem UNLIKELY as of now for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Above is a look at the Euro output valid on Friday, September 15 at 7PM.

DANGEROUS FLORENCE NOW A CAT. 4

Latest #Florence view… Strengthening is not over. BE READY if you’re in North Carolina or South Carolina. The potential impacts of this storm cannot be overstated: High (150+ mph) winds near the eyewall, 1-2 FEET of rain perhaps, inland flooding, massive surge, tornadoes. pic.twitter.com/q9iaugOnjs

— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) September 10, 2018

It cannot be overstated that potentially catastrophic impacts will be possible along the South Carolina and North Carolina coast where Hurricane Florence ultimately makes landfall. Just in as of the latest 11AM advisory, Florence is now a category 4 hurricane with maximum winds at 130 mph. Unfortunately, due to warmer sea surface temperatures and relaxing wind shear high in the atmosphere, Florence is entering an even more favorable environment for further strengthening. The system very well could become a category 5 hurricane tonight or on Tuesday as rapid strengthening continues. Everyone with interests in southern Virginia, the entirety of North Carolina and South Carolina, and western Georgia should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Florence. Folks near Hilton Head Island (SC), Charleston (SC), Myrtle Beach (SC), Wilmington (NC), Jacksonville (NC), and Morehead City (NC) are now in a significant risk zone where hurricane impacts will be possible. Direct impacts from Hurricane Florence are not expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida. Note in the graphic below how in the 3-5 day forecast timeframe that the system slows its forward speed drastically, meaning a potentially MAJOR flood threat will set up across the Carolinas due to all of the heavy rain.

I am very concerned for our friends in the Carolinas! If you have interests there, please let them know how serious of a situation this is.

HURRICANE ISAAC MOVING WEST

Hurricane Isaac is located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the African continent. Maximum winds are at 75 mph. Note that out of all the systems we’re currently watching, the forecast confidence with Isaac remains the lowest. This is due to significant model divergence in the 4-5 day forecast timeframe. NHC calls for Isaac to maintain its strength as it approaches the Leeward Islands before weakening to a tropical storm as environmental shear increases over the Caribbean. I am not comfortable saying this publicly yet, but I am encouraged that most of the major global models show Isaac dissipating over the central Caribbean in 5-6 days as shear increases. Again, lots of uncertainty, but we’ll keep watching. Anytime there is a storm in this corridor of the Atlantic that has any type of potential of moving into the Gulf of Mexico, we must monitor diligently!

HURRICANE HELENE STAYS AWAY

Hurricane Helene is in the far eastern Atlantic closer to Africa than North America. The system will likely continue moving west-northwest over the next 24 hours before making a sharp, right northerly turn in about 3 days. All major global models point to Helene staying away from land over the next 7 days with dissipation happening in about 8-9 days. Obviously local impacts won’t happen if this is the case. Good news!

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN ATLANTIC

Yet another tropical storm could form in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean well east of Bermuda in the days ahead. All models point to this system moving east, away from the continental United States. We’ll watch it, but local impacts are not expected.

LOCAL FORECAST

After discussing five tropical systems that will have varying levels of impact in the United States, where does that leave south Alabama and northwest Florida? In a seasonal mid-September weather pattern, of course! Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in each of the next 7 days with high temperatures near 90° and morning lows in the 70s. Severe weather is not expected over the next week, although these pop-up storms can certainly be on the strong side at times with very heavy rain and lots of lightning.

PERSONAL NOTE

There was no morning video on this Monday. I posted a graphic (here) with a long text discussion instead. Today is a really difficult day for me, for my community, and for friends that I love very dearly. We unexpectedly lost a great friend (Curtis Glaize) who grew up with us here in Brewton. My heart breaks today for the Glaize family, Curtis’s fiancée, and all of my many friends who are grieving the loss of such a joyful, fun person. I know his family and all of his many friends would covet and appreciate your prayers in the days ahead. Thank you.

Let me know if you have questions, concerns, or comments. Have a nice Monday evening.

Good Tuesday morning, RZW Exec partners! Tropical Storm Gordon continues to move northwest across the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Impacts have already started at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches as the first outer rain bands are moving in. Heavy rain is falling near Perdido Key, Gulf Shores, and Orange Beach at the time this update is being typed around 10:15AM. This is a highly detailed post with information about what you can expect in each of our respective local counties. IMPORTANT: This will be the final RZW Exec update, as my focus at this point is shifting to our public products. You can always view the latest info from me in the Latest tab (bottom left corner here in the RZWeather app). It serves as a “tap to refresh” button for the homepage of the app.

GORDON IN THE GULF NOW

Below is the latest graphic issued by the National Hurricane Center regarding the projected path for the center of circulation of Tropical Storm Gordon. This is the latest 10AM CDT advisory graphic…

Maximum winds as of now are pegged at 65 miles per hour. The center of Gordon is expected to make landfall sometime this evening into the wee hours of Wednesday morning as a category 1 hurricane. This is good news as the weakening trend at that point will commence. Impacts from Gordon will start across our area shortly and last well into Wednesday, long after the center passes. This is because our area will be on the volatile eastern flank of the center of circulation.

GORDON – LOCAL IMPACTS

MORE IMPACTS AT THE COAST… This is a repeat from yesterday’s discussion but it is still 100% accurate: Because of the “angle of attack” of the storm, moving southeast to northwest, it is reasonable to conclude that the greatest impacts in our local area will very likely happen in the southern halves of Mobile and Baldwin counties in southwest Alabama. That is what I’m considering as “Zone 1,” as MOST likely to see impacts. “Zone 2,” as SOMEWHAT likely to have impacts, would be areas in northwest Florida near the immediate coast, basically south of Interstate 10. “Zone 3,” for all areas north of Interstate 10 COULD have impacts, but impacts are less likely to happen there. If that is confusing, see the maps below as those will likely provide better context.

HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING THREAT… Rain amounts due to Gordon are likely to be just a touch higher than previously indicated. We note the Weather Prediction Center has adjusted their projected totals of 3-4″ of rain to include more parts of Escambia [FL] and Santa Rosa counties. Rain amounts have also slightly been increased for areas near Chatom, Wagerville, Uriah, Atmore, and Flomaton. This is in response to the big area of convection that has fired on the northern side of Gordon, likely to bring more rain earlier than anticipated starting this afternoon. Overall, the flash flooding threat will continue to be greatest in Mobile, Baldwin, and Escambia [FL] counties, especially near the immediate coastline.

ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE… Now that we have rain bands from Gordon moving in, isolated tornadoes will be possible imminently. The threat will be mainly at the coastline over the next few hours (waterspouts that briefly move inland, triggering a tornado warning). The tornado risk will gradually spread inland throughout the day as more rain bands move in. These will NOT be long-track, violent tornadoes that are more common in the spring months. These will be “weak,” spin-up tornadoes that last only a few minutes. It really doesn’t matter that much though, because if a tornado affects YOU, it’s a big deal. Be ready to move to shelter in case of one of these spin-up tornadoes. Our tornado warning policy is outlined here, and it certainly will apply today! Below is the latest convective outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center… Levels 1 and 2 risk are in place for the entirety of our local area due to the increasing tornado threat. Note that the Level 2 risk is in place for coastal areas where tornadoes are more likely to happen…

WIND IMPACTS UNLIKELY INLAND… Significant wind impacts are still NOT expected across inland areas of south Alabama or northwest Florida. Yes, there could be breezy conditions at times, but overall, the wind impacts should be confined to the immediate coastline. This has not changed. Gusty winds will happen closer to the coastline this afternoon. The greatest chance of stronger winds will happen this evening from 6PM to 3AM on Wednesday morning at the Alabama beaches and Dauphin Island, where the core of Gordon will pass very near tonight.

STORM SURGE WARNING… A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for Dauphin Island as there could be some minor to moderate storm surge (tides running 3-6′ above normal). A Storm Surge Watch is also in effect from Dauphin Island eastward to Navarre, FL.

OFFICIAL PRODUCTS…  Again, plenty of official products in place by the National Weather Service. Here are those products…

1) A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southern halves of Mobile and Baldwin counties. This is more of a cautionary thing, as hurricane force winds are possible near the beaches and perhaps near Bayou La Batre and Coden in southern Mobile County. I would suggest that tropical storm force winds are definitely more likely, but the hurricane force wind gusts should be confined to the immediate coastline.

2) A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Escambia [FL] County, coastal areas of Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties, in addition to the northern halves of Mobile and Baldwin counties. Again, tropical storm force winds will be possible within 5 miles or so of the coastline, but that’s about it. Inland areas will be spared, most likely.

3) A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for coastal areas of Mobile County.

4) A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for coastal areas of Baldwin, Escambia [FL], Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties.

5) A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Washington, Escambia [AL], Mobile, Baldwin, Santa Rosa, and Escambia [FL] counties.

6) There are no active watches or warnings in effect as of 10:45AM for Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Covington, or Butler counties.

I’ll be working on our public-facing products over the next 24-36 hours. Feel free to text me at (251) 363-8833 if there is anything I can do to help you make weather-related decisions. I might be slower to reply now that the storm is moving in, but I’ll do my best to get back to you promptly.

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Have a nice week and again, please join me in our public-facing products throughout the day!