RZW EXEC: STORMS SATURDAY MORNING; SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY EVENING… RZW Exec partners, good Friday evening! Multiple rounds of storms are ahead. Storms on Saturday morning will be noisy at times but generally under severe limits. The concern is now on Sunday evening into early Monday when we have another potentially more potent round of severe weather. Tornadoes, damaging winds, hail, and flash flooding will all become possible. It appears damaging straight line winds will be the main concern, although parameters have ever so slightly increased to favor more tornadoes on Sunday evening as well.
Overview: Thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday morning, some of which may briefly be on the strong side. Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday evening into the early morning hours of Monday across south Alabama and northwest Florida.
Threat Levels: For Saturday: Level 1 (out of 5) risk, meaning only isolated instances of severe storms will be possible. For Sunday into Early Monday: Level 3 (out of 5) risk, meaning scattered to numerous severe storms will be possible.
Where: For Saturday: The entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida is now under a Level 1 (out of 5) marginal, low-end risk. For Sunday, the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida remains under a Level 3 risk.
When: For Saturday: 3AM to 9AM is when the low-end risk of strong storms will happen. For Sunday: 4PM Sunday to 4AM Monday will be the 12 hour window when storms will be most likely to happen. 7PM Sunday evening to 1AM Monday will be the core risk time for south Alabama and northwest Florida.
Saturday Morning Risks: Gusty winds, heavy rain, some thunder and lightning.
Sunday Evening Risks: Damaging winds, tornadoes, hail, flash flooding, lightning.
As always, please let me know if you have any questions or have specific decision support needs. Below is the public, long form post that will debut with our live video this evening. Thank you!
DAMAGING WINDS & TORNADOES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT… The Storm Prediction Center continues to include all of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone valid for Sunday into early Monday. This means that scattered to numerous severe storms will be possible. This includes the risk of a few tornadoes, potentially numerous reports of wind damage (trees down), large hail, and flash flooding. All modes of severe weather will be possible. This will likely be a situation where multiple waves of strong to severe storms move across our region, with the main concern happening Sunday evening into the very early part of Monday. There also could be a few storms around on Saturday morning, but MOST of those storms should be well below severe limits. That is your severe weather summary, below you will find all the details.
SATURDAY MORNING STORMS… There could be a few showers and thunderstorms that move across our region later this evening into Saturday morning. There is a LOW-end chance some of these storms may briefly ramp up and become strong as they move across the region, with the main concern being gusty winds. The atmosphere is not exactly primed for tornadoes tonight or on Saturday morning, but this is April in the Deep South, meaning we need to watch these storms carefully. The expression concerning thunderstorms locally, especially this time of year is: Expect the unexpected. I will monitor radar trends overnight and bring you the latest info in the RedZone Weather app, as needed. Note these Saturday morning storms are totally separate from the “main event” severe weather expected late Sunday into early Monday.
THREAT SUMMARY AS OF FRIDAY EVENING… The primary concerns with this weather system will be tornadoes and damaging winds on Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Large hail and flash flooding will also be a concern. Unlike the last round of severe weather last Sunday (on Easter), total rain amounts with this system locally will be in the 1 to 3 inch range across our region. This could cause more flash flooding issues if storms train over the same areas.
CURRENT RISK: LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5)… All parts of all of our local counties in south Alabama and northwest Florida remain involved in the Storm Prediction Center’s Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone. This means that scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms will be possible. Further outlook revisions are expected over the next 36 hours as this severe weather potential approaches.
LOCATIONS INVOLVED… ALL of south Alabama and ALL of northwest Florida are involved in this risk zone. The greatest risk of tornadoes will happen over inland areas of south Alabama, locally. The atmosphere will be volatile and unstable across the entire region, thus we cannot rule out the possibility of multiple tornadoes locally. While we cannot completely rule out the risk of a significant tornado, at this point, it seems like damaging winds and brief tornadoes are the more likely scenario. As I always caution, though, if a tornado (big or small) affects YOU, it’s a big deal.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – SUNDAY P.M. INTO A.M. MONDAY… I realize the timing of this system is quite reminiscent of the timing of the last severe weather risk last week. 4PM Sunday to 4AM Monday will be the 12 hour window when storms will be most likely to happen. 7PM Sunday evening to 1AM Monday will be the core risk time for south Alabama and northwest Florida.
BE READY… Tornado helmets or makeshift helmets are absolutely critical in all severe weather events. NOW is the time to make a severe weather plan. More info here.
BE THE HERO… The National Weather Service has launched an awareness campaign entitled, “Be The Hero.” The truth is you can absolutely be a hero and inform those folks around you that pay no attention to the world of weather. I guarantee you (sadly) there are folks all around that have heard nothing about this severe weather threat setting up for Sunday. The way we combat that is to “be the hero” and let your friends and family know about this risk. Call them, text them, tag them, pass it along to them, I really don’t care HOW you tell your folks as long as we make as many folks aware of this risk as possible.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… Now is the time, many hours before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have the latest information posted by 7AM on Facebook, Twitter, and in the RedZone Weather app. Please join me for that on Saturday morning. See you then!
Have a nice evening!