CLEARING SKIES LATER TODAY; NICE, COOL WEEKEND… Cooler, drier air will progressively filter into south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Friday. This will set the stage for a gorgeous, mild weekend. The few showers that are left this morning will move from west to east and quickly kick out of our region by lunchtime. High temperatures today will peak in the upper-60s across the region.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FORECAST… Most games across our region will be dry and cool. Temperatures will be in the 50s for many of the games across the region. There could be a rogue, isolated shower, but vast majority of the games should be dry. Grab a jacket, however, as a brisk northwest wind will be happening!

COOL SATURDAY; WARMER SUNDAY… High temperatures will warm to around 70 by Saturday afternoon. We warm again on Sunday, most likely into the upper-70s. Plenty of sunshine is expected each day.

PREVIEW OF NEXT WEEK… Sunshine will in place Monday and Tuesday with slowly warming temperatures. Our next rain chance (after today) looks to be Thursday of next week when a cold front will approach from the northwest. Secondary severe season is upon us, so anytime we have a cold front like this approaching, we have to be diligient in monitoring for the potential of severe thunderstorms that could cause tornadoes. No indication of that just yet, but we’ll be watching.

See all the details in your Friday #rzw forecast video that will be available shortly in the RZWeather app… Enjoy the day!

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SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING EAST… The risk of severe storms continues to decrease as cool, dry air is now filtering into west Alabama. Showers are bringing heavy rain at the moment to communities like Milton, Bagdad, Whiting Field, Allentown, and Munson. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to push eastward across our region. Most of the rain should be to our east by 8AM.

LAST UPDATE OF THE NIGHT… This will be my final update until about 6:35AM, unless we have an isolated severe storm before that. Convection has not fired up as anticipated thus far, meaning the overall risk of severe weather for any given spot (including coastal areas) remains very low. The risk remains very low, but it won’t be completely zero for areas near the immediate beaches until the dry air starts moving in behind the cold front.

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LOW-END TORNADO RISK FOR COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT… There is a low-end risk that a tornado or two may happen over the next 6-8 hours across coastal areas of south Alabama and northwest Florida. This means that vast majority of our area should have no major issues. Yes, there will be thunder and lightning and heavy rain at times, but the overall severe weather risk remains very low. Have a way to receive urgent weather warnings before you go to sleep!

WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH NEAR THE BEACHES… As advertised for days, the warm front is right over the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches and slowly moving north. This will allow moist, unstable air to move over the southern parts of our coastal (Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia [FL], Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. A brief, spin-up tornado is possible in these counties before cooler air starts moving in around sunrise. Again, most of us should be totally fine with just general thunderstorms and rain. The chance of any given spot being struck by a weak tornado is very low, but the risk is NOT zero, which is why we’re producing this update this evening.

ALL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST… The clearing line and frontal boundary is located near Interstate 59 in southern Mississippi right now. We’ll be able to give an “all clear” to communities in west Alabama first, with the clearing line moving east in the overnight hours.

UPDATES IN APP TONIGHT… Since this is a low-end severe weather risk with very little in the way of issues expected, all of my further updates tonight and overnight will be in the RedZone Weather app. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me.

Have a good evening!

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DREARY RUSH HOUR AHEAD… While there are intermittent showers around south Alabama and northwest Florida, the good news is we have NOT seen any severe weather just yet. We remain in somewhat of a holding pattern to see if a narrow band of instability can move north in the hours ahead out ahead of a surface area of low pressure. Have a way to receive urgent weather warnings tonight before you go to sleep. This event is not over yet! More rain is likely later this evening.

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SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE… We’re in somewhat of a “holding pattern,” watching and waiting to see if the warm front to our south is going to move north toward our shoreline. The heavier mass of rain that was in place across south Alabama and northwest Florida has shifted eastward into southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Scattered showers are now in progress across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. Over the next few hours, I expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue. We’ll be watching the situation to our west where warmer, more unstable air is surging northward. This “tongue of instability” is what could cause the low-end chance of severe weather this evening near our coastal areas.

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LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK NEAR THE COAST… Moderate to heavy rain continues across many spots in south Alabama and northwest Florida during the lunch hour. Several of the storms near the immediate coastline have been rotating over the last hour, but so far the storms have remained weak and unorganized. A warm front is situated just to our south over the Gulf of Mexico and is moving north slowly. There has already been one tornado warning in SW Louisiana this morning. That is where the tornado risk is highest at the moment. The tornado risk will shift eastward into areas near and just south of our coastline over the next few hours. Below is a current look at the radar as of 12:15PM…

STORM PREDICTION CENTER UPDATE… The Storm Prediction Center has also come on board to the idea of a few brief, spin-up tornadoes near the coast. We note that majority of the areas in our coastal counties are included in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk to potentially see a tornado or two. Widespread severe weather is not expected. This will be a soaking rain event for most communities, but particularly if you’re south of Interstate 10, there is a low-end tornado risk this evening into the overnight hours.

HAVE A WAY TO GET THE WARNINGS… Again, it’s going to be intermittent rain for most of us this afternoon. You will need a way to receive urgent weather alerts should tornado warnings become required. Have a way to get the warnings today and certainly tonight before you go to sleep. I’ll be sending several Low-Level Alerts in the hours ahead here in the RedZone Weather app (see the Alerts tab in the bottom right corner of the app to turn these Low-Level Alerts ON, if you’re interested). I generally only send the urgent alerts in the respective county notification zones here in the RZWeather app.

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LIVE STREAMING RADAR COVERAGE… Tap the LIVE tab in the RedZone Weather app to view our live, uninterrupted stremaing radar coverage. Note that I will not be on camera unless a tornado warning or severe weather happens. We stream the live radar loop so you can beam it to your Apple TV, Roku, or other streaming device.

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STRONGER STORM NEAR GULF SHORES… I’m monitoring a weak area of rotation in a thunderstorm surrounded by moderate rain approaching areas in south Baldwin County near Gulf Shores. This is the type of storm that we will be watching for the low-end tornado potential today. If we get a tornado warning, I’ll go live across our platforms.

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RAIN AMOUNT PROJECTION… This is the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast valid for the next five days… aka how much rain is likely in total. Most inland spots today will pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain. Greater rain amounts are likely near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches where 2-3″ of rain are likely.

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MORNING SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE

STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR COAST THIS EVENING… There continues to be a low-end, marginal chance of a brief tornado or two near the immediate Alabama and northwest Florida beaches this evening into the overnight hours. The tornado risk this evening will be confined to the coast. Inland areas have no severe weather risk, as the air is more stable north of I-10. The big story for most of us throughout the day will be heavy rain.

ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE NEAR BEACHES… If you’re in Dauphin Island, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Pensacola Beach, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Mary Esther, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, or Destin, your severe weather risk remains very low. It’s not zero, but the overall risk of a tornado happening in any of these areas remains very low. The key in these areas will be if the warm front can move north into these areas. If that happens, the tornado risk would marginally increase. I’ll be watching trends throughout the day. Regardless of tornado development, heavy rain that could lead to instances of flash flooding will be happening throughout the day into tonight.

LITTLE TO NO SEVERE RISK INLAND… If in or near Brewton, Atmore, Thomasville, Monroeville, Evergreen, Greenville, Andalusia, Opp, Bay Minette, Chatom, Butler, or Citronelle, your severe weather risk today into tonight is basically near zero. The storms that happen in these areas will be elevated in nature and very likely NOT severe. Heavy rain will still happen intermittently in these inland communities throughout the day into tonight.

COVERAGE POLICY… Long-time viewers and readers know that anytime we have a tornado warning issued for any part of our 12 county primary coverage area (defined here) we go LIVE across our platforms, bringing you the very latest.

LIVE STREAMING RADAR… Since this will be an active weather today with a very low-end risk of severe weather, we will stream live, uninterrupted radar coverage in the Radar tab of the RedZone Weather app starting later this morning around 11:45AM. That’s when the radar is looping, but I’m not on camera. I’ll come on camera only if severe weather/tornado warnings happen.

APP ALERTS… Be sure to set up your customized alerts in the RedZone Weather app before warnings are issued! Check out the Alerts tab (lower right corner in the RZWeather app) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive straight from me.

UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY… I’ll have plenty of updates in the RedZone Weather app and on Twitter in the hours ahead. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a great Thursday!

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HEAVY RAIN OVER WEST ALABAMA… Heavy downpours of rain are likely to continue over the next few hours across the western half of our region. If you’re west of Pine Hill, Monroeville, Atmore, or Orange Beach, odds are you’ll have moderate to heavy rain falling over the next 3-4 hours at minimum.

TORNADO WARNING TO OUR SOUTHWEST… Portions of Orleans, Plaquemines, and St. Bernard parishes in Louisiana are under a tornado warning until 9AM. The core of the New Orleans metro area is not included. I’ll have a special update on the severe weather potential in our local area posted by 9:05AM.

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