6:51AM June 16, 2026
RAIN & STORMS LIKELY AT TIMES TODAY AND TOMORROW; LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK… Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today and on Wednesday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two will be possible. Flash flooding could become a concern if/when thunderstorms train over the same areas. All of the storms that develop, of course, will be capable of producing lightning, thunder, and heavy rain. Isolated, brief tornadoes may become possible again on Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain chances will remain elevated later this week into the upcoming weekend.
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK TODAY… The Storm Prediction Center added a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone for much of south Alabama and northwest Florida valid for today. The concern is that some of the thunderstorms that develop could become supercellular in nature and potentially produce a tornado or two along with damaging wind gusts. MOST communities will simply have rain and thunderstorms today, but a few severe storms can’t be ruled out.
TORNADO RISK POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY… Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes may become possible late Wednesday into much of the day on Thursday as an area of low pressure passes by the region. It is a bit too early for timing specifics but please be aware that we may have a tornado risk setting up for Thursday across all of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Spotty storms will continue to be possible into the weekend, but the severe weather/tornado risk should end by Thursday evening. This is something I will be monitoring carefully over the next few days.
NAME OR NO NAME – IMPACTS REMAIN THE SAME… An area of low pressure set to move into the western Gulf from Texas today now has a 60% chance of becoming a named tropical storm. It really won’t matter much if the tropical system in question, currently situated over south Texas, becomes a named tropical storm as the impacts from the system across Alabama and northwest Florida remain the same. The biggest, most widespread impact will very likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. Rain amounts of 3 to 7” in total through Friday are expected across the local area with the higher rain amounts expected further inland near the US84 corridor. Brief, spin-up tornadoes may also be possible due to this system on Thursday.
PROJECTED RAIN TOTALS… 5-7” of total rain through Friday is the expectation for places like Thomasville, Monroeville, Chatom, Millry, Evergreen, Greenville, Camden, and points north. These are the communities that have the highest risk of flash flooding at times in the days ahead if/when rain and storms train over the same areas. 3-5” of total rain through Friday is expected in places like Mobile, Spanish Fort, Daphne, Foley, Bay Minette, Pensacola, Atmore, Brewton, Jay, Milton, Pace, Andalusia, Opp, and Crestview. 2-4” of total rain through Friday is expected near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Quite a bit of rain has happened today north of US84 across inland stretches of south Alabama, despite hardly any rain in northwest Florida and coastal Alabama. This will, unfortunately, pave the way for storms to quickly cause flash flooding over the next few days.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE… Minor coastal flooding will be possible from Wednesday afternoon, through Thursday, and into Friday morning. The greatest risk of coastal flooding will likely happen near Mobile and the Causeway where coastal flooding of 1-2 feet may be possible. This type of flooding is capable of causing over wash on the Causeway. Very minor coastal flooding impacts could happen near Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, and Pensacola Beach. Widespread surge and major impacts are highly unlikely.
TROPICS: CARIBBEAN & ATLANTIC CONTINUE TO BE QUIET, FOR NOW… No tropical storms are expected to form across the Caribbean Sea or Atlantic Ocean over the next 5-7 days. Climatologically speaking, we usually see a ramp up in activity in the western Caribbean Sea in July and August followed by the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic Ocean ramping up in August and September. It remains to be seen just how much the El Niño pattern in the Pacific will inhibit hurricane activity across the basin this year.
APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!
See all the details in your Tuesday morning RedZone Weather forecast video. My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. I will have updates posted throughout the day, as needed, in the RedZone Weather app.
Have a nice Tuesday!
