#Rafael is now a major (Category 3) #hurricane with max winds of 115 mph – the 5th major hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. 7 other seasons in satellite era (1966-onwards) have had 5+ major hurricanes by 6 Nov: 1995, 1996, 2004, 2005, 2010, 2017, 2020. pic.twitter.com/R0BVCEMQX6
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) November 6, 2024
#RAFAEL now a 110 mph Category 2 hurricane as it approaches Cuba — it’ll try to reach Category 3 status at landfall.
RAFAEL is expected to be only the 3rd major hurricane to strike Cuba in the month November on record (alongside CUBA 1932 and MICHELLE 2001). pic.twitter.com/RWQlXP6QK7
— Michael Ferragamo (@FerragamoWx) November 6, 2024
Pretty remarkable that we have a hurricane south of Cuba in early November and there's absolutely no threat to South Florida. That's definitely not what you would expect from history. In fact it's going to turn west across the Gulf like in September or something. Very unusual. pic.twitter.com/WWcjWpTIVI
— Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) November 6, 2024
RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND… Unsettled weather will persist into the weekend, in part due to Tropical Storm Rafael. Beneficial rain continues to be the story!
We will trend drier and warmer for next week.
SCATTERED SHOWERS & STORMS TODAY; HURRICANE RAFAEL MOVES INTO GULF TODAY… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times throughout the day, particularly this morning into the midday hours across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Widespread severe storms are not expected, but you may hear loud thunder at times in the stronger storms. High temperatures will be in the low-80s today. We are continuing to monitor Hurricane Rafael, currently in the northwest Caribbean Sea but expected to move into the southern Gulf later today. Direct, significant local impacts appear increasingly unlikely due to Rafael.
HURRICANE RAFAEL TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF TODAY… Hurricane Rafael continued to organize overnight. Maximum winds are around 90 mph. The core of the storm will cross the western part of Cuba today where a Hurricane Warning continues. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas as some of the outer bands of Rafael may reach the Keys later today. Isolated tornadoes will be possible in the Florida Keys as well today as the core of Rafael passes to the west.
RAFAEL LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN IN GULF; MAJOR LOCAL IMPACTS NOT LIKELY… The official National Hurricane Center forecast for Hurricane Rafael has the forward motion of the storm slowing considerably as we get into the weekend when the system will be moving, or drifting, westward. The overall environment across the Gulf of Mexico will become less than hospitable for the storm, meaning atmospheric shear is projected to increase. This means the intensity of the storm will decrease, thus weakening is expected this weekend and into early next week. While there is a chance Rafael dissipates before reaching the coastline, most model guidance shows the center of a much weaker storm reaching the Louisiana coastline early next week. This would largely limit any significant impacts across south Alabama or northwest Florida. We note that regardless of the exact future path and intensity of Rafael, a dangerous, high risk of rip currents will exist at all local beaches for the rest of this week and into the weekend. Please be cautious if you’re planning to be in the Gulf waters this week!
I will have more updates on Hurricane Rafael posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app.
APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!
See all the details in your Wednesday morning RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a great day!
