RZW EXEC: LOW-END TORNADO RISK OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Wednesday evening! We have a developing, yet low-end, risk of a few tornadoes setting up for the overnight hours into Thursday as the remnant circulation of former Tropical Storm Beta continues to approach Alabama from the west. The concern is that a few strong to severe thunderstorms could briefly ramp up to the point of producing a tornado or two on Thursday, mainly in the morning and early afternoon hours. The entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida is involved in this low-end tornado risk. We will go into long form tornado warning coverage if any warnings are required for our local area. Please let me know if you have any questions or decision support needs. Our public messaging concerning this event are below. Have a great Wednesday!

FEW, BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has included ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk for a few tropical tornadoes overnight into Thursday as the remnants of Tropical Storm Beta pass to our northwest. While tropical-related tornadoes generally are weak and brief, they sometimes can knock down trees, damage roofs, and cause other damage. The risk of tornadoes will increase overnight as a warm front gradually moves northward across our region. This risk will extend into Thursday.

LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR ENTIRE LOCAL AREA… The Storm Prediction Center now includes ALL of the southern half of Alabama and all of northwest Florida in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk, primarily driven by a chance of a few, brief tornadoes. This risk includes all parts of the following counties. If you live in ANY part of any of these counties, you’re included in this risk zone starting early Thursday morning: Washington (AL), Clarke, Monroe, Wilcox, Choctaw, Marengo, Conecuh, Butler, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia (AL), Baldwin, Mobile, Lowndes, Montgomery, Pike, Barbour, Coffee, Dale, Henry, Houston, Geneva, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Holmes, Washington (FL), Jackson, Calhoun, Bay, and Gulf counties.

TIMING – TORNADO RISK OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY… Tornadoes will become possible overnight with the risk extending into the daytime hours on Thursday. The overall tornado risk for south Alabama and northwest Florida will extend from 4AM to 4PM Thursday, with the core risk being from 7AM to 1PM.

TORNADO WATCH TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING… A Tornado Watch is in effect this evening until 10PM for parts of Louisiana and southwest Mississippi. Baton Rouge and McComb are two of the larger locales involved. We’ve already had multiple tornado warnings happen in this area as the core of the remnants of Beta moves northeast. More tornadoes will be possible in the hours ahead to our west in this zone. A new Tornado Watch may be needed for southern Mississippi and southwest Alabama overnight or on Thursday morning.

TORNADO RISK ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY… The tornado risk across our local area will gradually come to an end from west to east as the remnant circulation center of former Tropical Storm Beta continues to move northeast. The better tornado dynamics will begin to lift away from our area midday as the atmosphere locally becomes increasingly unstable due to daytime heating. This “mismatch of severe weather ingredients” is the reason this tornado threat is not more pronounced.

TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!

SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have another detailed video update posted by 7:15AM on Thursday with the very latest on this developing severe weather situation UNLESS uninterrupted live tornado warning coverage is required before that. Have a great Wednesday evening!

RZW EXEC: IMPACTS FROM SALLY POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST LATER TODAY… RZW Exec partners, good Monday morning! The overall track forecast for Tropical Storm Sally has shifted east. This means that potential local impacts have been increased. What has changed since I last emailed you:

– The risk of heavy rain and a long duration flash flood and subsequent river/creek flood event looks increasingly likely. Total rainfall amounts are expected to be slightly higher than previously suggested.

– The risk of high wind gusts has increased across parts of Mobile, Baldwin, and Washington counties in west Alabama.

– Storm surge is expected to be higher than previously suggested. 3 to 5 feet of storm surge will be possible along the shores of Mobile Bay (particularly the western shore) and the Alabama beaches.

Sally could easily become a memorable flooding event across the Gulf Coast. I don’t like getting into the comparison game, but I’ve seen talk of comparisons between Hurricane Danny (1997) and the forecast for Sally. Danny was the single wettest tropical system in Alabama history. All storms are different, but even with discussions of comparisons to an event like Danny makes me a bit uneasy.

Below, you will find information that will debut in our 7AM video post. Since impacts from Sally will likely begin later today, this will serve as my last RZW Exec scheduled update for this event. We will go into live coverage if and when tornado warnings happen. As always, please let me know if you have specific questions or decision support needs. Have a great Monday and stay safe!

SALLY PROJECTED PATH SHIFTS EAST; IMPACTS POSSIBLE THRU WEDNESDAY… The track forecast for Tropical Storm Sally was shifted eastward overnight, putting more of our local area in the path of what could be more significant impacts. Sally has continued to organize and will likely become a hurricane later this morning or in the afternoon hours. The local National Weather Service office in Mobile issued a statement overnight indicating a “significant to potentially historic flooding event is becoming increasingly likely.” The latest projections now call for 10 to 15 inches of TOTAL rainfall from Sally with isolated higher amounts of 20 to 25 inches being possible near Dauphin Island and the Alabama beaches. That is not a typo. **2 FEET of rain** is not out of the question due to this storm in isolated spots near the Alabama beaches. If that verifies, that will indeed, be (in the words of NWS) “historic.” In addition to the extreme rainfall threat, isolated tornadoes will become a concern today, first near the coast and progressively more for inland areas as well. The high wind threat from Sally will likely increase late tonight into Tuesday. Storm surge and coastal flooding also could be a significant issue in some spots along Mobile Bay, with the magnitude of the storm surge being highly dependent on the exact future track of Sally. All of your Monday forecast details are below.

HEAVY RAIN INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT TIMES TODAY… Showers and storms will start near the coast and progressively move inland throughout the day. Heavy rain is likely at times today with a more steady, perhaps nonstop rain setting up later tonight. The flash flood risk will begin once heavy rain and storms begin training over the same areas, which seems increasingly likely to happen on Tuesday into Wednesday.

TORNADO RISK AT THE COAST FIRST; SPREADING INLAND TODAY… Tornadoes will be possible in the outer rain bands of Sally that spread across south Alabama and northwest Florida today. This means that the tornado risk will likely start first around the northwest Florida coast and gradually spread westward and inland throughout the day. Tropical tornadoes generally do not last long, but they can cause localized areas of damage and still are very serious in some cases. If we have tornado warnings today or at any point over the next few days, be sure to join us in our live video coverage that will remain on the air as long as the warning is in effect.

HIGH WIND POSSIBLE NEAR AL COAST & WEST AL TUES. INTO WEDS… Due to the eastward track adjustment for Sally, we now have a slightly higher risk zone for hurricane force wind gusts in place for much of Mobile County and the coastal areas of Baldwin County as well. These are the places that have the highest risk of potential wind-related damage in our local area. The risk of tropical storm force winds has expanded to now include parts of Clarke and Washington counties in west Alabama since the core of Sally will be near these areas on Wednesday.

RIVER & CREEK FLOODING POSSIBLE… It is a good thing that local creeks and rivers are generally running at average to below average stream flows as of today, because Sally will quickly cause many of our local streams to become full, if not go into flood stage. River and creek flooding could become an issue as early as Tuesday and extend long after the circulation of Sally departs from the Southeastern U.S. Coastal areas have a higher probability of river and creek flooding than inland areas, but the risk certainly is not zero in inland areas for river and creek flooding either. Be ready for possible river and creek flooding later this week!

STORM SURGE LIKELY AT THE ALABAMA BEACHES & MOBILE BAY… A highly significant and potentially dangerous 7 to 11 ft. storm surge is now forecast for eastern Louisiana and parts of the Mississippi coast WEST of Ocean Springs. 4 to 7 ft. storm surge is expected from Ocean Springs to the Mississippi-Alabama border. A 3 to 5 ft. storm surge is projected for the Alabama coastline, the Mississippi Sound, and Mobile Bay. 1-3 ft. of storm surge is expected at the northwest Florida beaches.

STORM SURGE WARNING FOR MOBILE BAY & AL BEACHES… Because of the risk of water levels rising and the 3 to 5 ft. storm surge, a Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for all of the Alabama coastline, including Mobile Bay. Coastal flooding will be most likely to happen in southern Mobile County near Dauphin Island and Bayou La Batre. Storm surge issues are also expected near the Causeway in the northern part of Mobile Bay.

LANDFALL IN LA OR MS BUT IMPACTS LIKELY IN AL & NW FL… The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center currently shows a landfall of Sally being possible from Grand Isle, Louisiana eastward to Orange Beach, Alabama. That is the CENTER point. Impacts will extend outward WELL away from the center point. The current thinking is that the center of circulation of Sally is likely to approach Louisiana or Mississippi as a hurricane later today with landfall more likely tomorrow (Tuesday). This scenario would place our entire local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida in the unstable eastern side of the storm, where the near constant flow of moisture off the northern Gulf of Mexico could create a dangerous flash flooding setup near the coast and the potential for a long form tornado threat. Even minor changes to the track forecast could put our region at a greater risk of stronger sustained winds. It is critical that we all up-to-date on the progress of Sally over the next 24-48 hours.

SALLY IMPACTS EXPECTED TO END LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… We have a long few days ahead with lots of rain and the potential for significant hazards, including high wind, storm surge, tornadoes, coastal flooding, flash flooding, and river & creek flooding. Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings over the next 48-72 hours. I realize this is a long duration, inconvenient weather situation for MANY folks across our area, but when we get to late Wednesday and early Thursday, we will be in much better shape. Thursday will likely feature only scattered showers and perhaps a few P.M. storms, but Sally will definitely be on the way out at that point.

COOLER AIR POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND… It is great to be able to conclude this long forecast discussion by reporting we have a real shot of seeing some cooler, drier, stable air moving in for the upcoming weekend. High temperatures may drop to around 82-83 degrees. There is a chance we may have to knock a few degrees of that projection, too! That means we could have HIGH temps around 80 by Saturday and Sunday with overnight lows in the low- to mid-60s. A lot can change between now and then. Stay tuned!

HURRICANE PAULETTE RIGHT OVER BERMUDA THIS MORNING… The large eye of Hurricane Paulette is basically right on top of Bermuda this morning in the Atlantic Ocean. Paulette continues to strengthen with maximum winds up to 85 mph at the time I’m writing this update on this Monday morning. Paulette is expected to become a major hurricane as the storm begins moving northeast later today and ultimately out to sea and away from land areas. No direct U.S. impacts are expected because of Paulette.

TD20/TEDDY-TO-BE LIKELY TO BECOME POWERFUL HURRICANE… Tropical Depression 20, aka what will likely be Tropical Storm Teddy shortly, is located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. TD20/Teddy will move west over the next day or so before rapidly moving northwest into the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting TD20/Teddy to be a powerful major hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean, north of the Leeward Islands and southwest of Bermuda, in 5 days. U.S. impacts are increasingly UNLIKELY due to TD20/Teddy. Good news! It is too early to know if impacts will be possible in Bermuda.

WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LOW… There is a low-end (20%) chance that a weak tropical area of low pressure drifting south in the western part of the Gulf of Mexico becomes a tropical storm over the next few days. This is a totally separate system from Sally. From NHC: “A weak area of low pressure over the west-central Gulf of Mexico continues to produce limited shower activity. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves southwestward and then southward at 5 to 10 mph over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.”

TWO MORE TROPICAL WAVES… There are two other tropical waves (one in the eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands and one over western Africa) that could develop into tropical storms in the days ahead. NHC places the current respective probabilities at a 70% chance and a 30% chance.

TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!

SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

NEXT UPDATE… We will go into long form live severe weather coverage if tornado warnings are needed today or over the next few days. Until then, I will have ongoing updates in the RedZone Weather app. My next detailed update will be posted later this afternoon or sooner, if needed. Have a good Monday!

RZW EXEC: MAJOR RAIN EVENT AHEAD DUE TO TROPICAL STORM SALLY… RZW Exec partners, good Saturday evening. Impacts from Tropical Storm Sally are expected to be quite pronounced near the Alabama beaches on Monday and Tuesday. 10 to 15 inches of rainfall is not out of the question near the immediate coastline of Alabama, Mississippi, and northwest Florida. I am most concerned this evening about the flooding and flash flooding potential setting up near our coastline. In addition, high wind gusts may be an issue for the Alabama coastline. We also will have an ongoing, long duration tornado risk that extends from Monday to Wednesday due to the projected path of what will likely be Hurricane Sally making landfall near or just to the west of our area, putting all of us locally in the unstable, eastern flank of the storm. I have written a **highly** detailed post (below) outlining what to expect in each of our local counties. As always, please let me know if you have any questions or specific decision support needs. Thanks!

HIGHLY DETAILED POST: LOCAL IMPACTS LIKELY DUE TO TROPICAL STORM SALLY… You will find a detailed assessment below as to what to expect in each of our local counties due to Tropical Storm Sally, which will likely make landfall as a hurricane some time Monday evening or Tuesday either in our area or just to our west in southeast Mississippi or Louisiana. Keep in mind that impacts WILL extend well away from the center landfall point AND our area will be on the volatile eastern flank of this developing storm. Local impacts from Sally could extend into Wednesday and maybe even Wednesday night, especially near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Unlike previous tropical systems we have had “near miss” encounters with over the last few months (Cristobal and Marco), the impacts locally (in south Alabama and northwest Florida) from Sally will probably be more pronounced, especially at our local beach zones. More details are below.

TIMING – POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES LOCALLY… Spin-up, tropical tornadoes will be possible across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida starting as early as the very early morning hours of Monday. Unfortunately, since Sally will be slowing down on approach to landfall, the risk of isolated tornadoes will extend well into Monday, Tuesday, and perhaps even Wednesday. We encourage everyone to have a way to receive urgent tornado warnings early next week. You need something like a NOAA Weather Radio or smartphone app that is designed to wake you up. It is a good idea to visit your smartphone’s notification settings and make sure Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs) are turned ON.

TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!

NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION; TRACKING PAULETTE & RENE… Tropical Storm Paulette is expected to become a hurricane tonight and directly affect Bermuda on Monday. Rene remains a weak tropical storm with no land impacts expected. We’re also tracking newly designated Tropical Depression 20 in the central Atlantic Ocean. TD20 will likely become Tropical Storm Teddy soon and move west, followed by a jolt to the north (and hopefully out to sea) early next week. NO need to worry about any of those systems locally. Our focus is 100% on Tropical Storm Sally at this point.

Below are the detailed county-by-county assessments discussing what you can expect from Tropical Storm Sally.

MOBILE COUNTY, AL… A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for Mobile County. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for all of the Alabama coastline, including Mobile Bay. All potential impacts will likely be more pronounced at the immediate coastline near Dauphin Island and along the western shore of Mobile Bay. 70-80 mph wind gusts will be possible, with sustained winds perhaps as high as 60-70 mph. Tornadoes will become possible on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours. The tornado risk may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most serious risk will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and river/creek flooding that continues long after the circulation of Sally moves away. Some spots in northern Mobile County may pick up 3-4″ of rain, while locales closer to Mobile Bay and the coastline may have 6-12″ of rainfall in total. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued. Beach hazards are likely, including storm surge, coastal flooding, high waves, and dangerous rip currents.

Locations: Mobile, Prichard, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Creola, Satsuma, Saraland, Calvert, Wilmer, West Mobile, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Alabama Port, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Crichton, Tanner Williams, Tillmans Corner, Chunchula, Grand Bay.

BALDWIN COUNTY, AL… A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for Baldwin County. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for all of the Alabama coastline, including Mobile Bay. All potential impacts will likely be more pronounced at the immediate coastline near Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Fort Morgan, and along the eastern shore of Mobile Bay near Spanish Fort, Montrose, Daphne, Fairhope, and Point Clear. 70-80 mph wind gusts will be possible, with sustained winds perhaps as high as 60-70 mph. Tornadoes will become possible on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours. The tornado risk may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most serious risk will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and river/creek flooding that continues long after the circulation of Sally moves away. Some spots in northern Baldwin County may pick up 3-4″ of rain, while locales closer to Mobile Bay and the coastline may have 6-12″ of rainfall in total. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued. Beach hazards are likely, including storm surge, coastal flooding, high waves, and dangerous rip currents.

Locations: Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Fort Morgan, Magnolia Springs, Foley, Elberta, Elsanor, Robertsdale, Summerdale, Silverhill, Montrose, Loxley, Stapleton, Bay Minette, Stockton, Rabun, Perdido, Tensaw, Point Clear.

ESCAMBIA COUNTY, FL… A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Escambia County, FL. All potential impacts will likely be more pronounced at the immediate coastline near Pensacola Beach, NAS Pensacola, Perdido Key, and along the shores of Pensacola Bay and East Bay. 60-70 mph wind gusts will be possible, with sustained winds perhaps as high as 50-60 mph. Tornadoes will become possible on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours. The tornado risk may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most serious risk will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and river/creek flooding that continues long after the circulation of Sally moves away. Some spots in northern Escambia County may pick up 3-4″ of rain, while locales closer to the coastline may have 6-12″ of rainfall in total. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued. Beach hazards are likely, including storm surge, coastal flooding, high waves, and dangerous rip currents.

Locations: Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Key, Warrington, Myrtle Grove, Molino, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Century, Ensley, Gonzalez, Cantonment, Quintette, McDavid.

SANTA ROSA COUNTY, FL… A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Santa Rosa County. All potential impacts will likely be more pronounced at the immediate coastline near Gulf Breeze and Navarre, and along the shores of Pensacola Bay and East Bay. 60-70 mph wind gusts will be possible, with sustained winds perhaps as high as 50-60 mph. Tornadoes will become possible on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours. The tornado risk may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most serious risk will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and river/creek flooding that continues long after the circulation of Sally moves away. Some spots in northern Santa Rosa County may pick up 3-4″ of rain, while locales closer to the coastline may have 6-12″ of rainfall in total. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued. Beach hazards are likely, including storm surge, coastal flooding, high waves, and dangerous rip currents.

Locations: Navarre, Jay, Milton, Pace, Gulf Breeze, Harold, Whiting Field, Chumuckla, New York, Brownsdale, Berrydale, Munson, Fidelis, McClellan, Mulat, Bagdad, Pine Bluff, Avalon Beach, Garcon Point, Whitfield, Allentown.

OKALOOSA COUNTY, FL… A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Okaloosa County. All potential impacts will likely be more pronounced at the immediate coastline near Mary Esther, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin, and along the shores of Choctawhatchee Bay. 50-60 mph wind gusts will be possible, with sustained winds perhaps as high as 40-50 mph. Tornadoes will become possible on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours. The tornado risk may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most serious risk will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and river/creek flooding that continues long after the circulation of Sally moves away. Some spots in northern Okaloosa County may pick up 3-4″ of rain, while locales closer to the coastline may have 4-10″ of rainfall in total. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued. Beach hazards are likely, including minor storm surge, minor coastal flooding, high waves, and dangerous rip currents.

Locations: Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Mary Esther, Wright, VPS, Eglin AFB, Crestview, Deerland, Campton, Auburn (FL), Baker, Holt, Milligan, Laurel Hill.

WASHINGTON COUNTY, AL… 20-40 mph wind gusts will be possible, with sustained winds perhaps as high as 20-30 mph. Tornadoes will become possible on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours. The tornado risk may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most serious risk will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and river/creek flooding that continues long after the circulation of Sally moves away. Rain totals may vary quite a bit across Washington County, but most spots will pick up 2 to 5 inches of rainfall in total due to Sally. Heavy rain is likely at times from Monday through Thursday.

Locations: Chatom, Leroy, McIntosh, Millry, Deer Park, Vinegar Bend, Fruitdale, Yellow Pine, Copeland, Yarbo, Jordan, Bigbee, St. Stephens, Tibbie, Sims Chapel, Sunflower, Malcolm.

CLARKE COUNTY, AL… Breezy (15-25 mph) conditions are expected at times. Tornadoes will become possible on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours. The tornado risk may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most serious risk will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and river/creek flooding that continues long after the circulation of Sally moves away. Rain totals may vary quite a bit across Clarke County, but most spots will pick up 2 to 5 inches of rainfall in total due to Sally. Heavy rain is likely at times from Monday through Thursday.

Locations: Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Fulton, Carlton, Gainestown, Gosport, Whatley, Scyrene, Springfield, Chilton, Tallahatta Springs, Bashi, Woods Bluff, Campbell, Zimco, Toddtown, Salitpa, Suggsville, Alma, Dickinson, West Bend, Winn, Walker Springs.

MONROE COUNTY, AL… Breezy (15-25 mph) conditions are expected at times. Tornadoes will become possible on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours. The tornado risk may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most serious risk will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and river/creek flooding that continues long after the circulation of Sally moves away. Rain totals may vary quite a bit across Monroe County, but most spots will pick up 2 to 5 inches of rainfall in total due to Sally. Heavy rain is likely at times from Monday through Thursday.

Locations: Monroeville, Excel, Uriah, Frisco City, Megargal, Mineola, Chrysler, Goodway, Peterman, Tunnel Springs, Beatrice, Riley Crossing, Perdue Hill, Mexia, Scratch Ankle, Hybart, Franklin, Eliska.

ESCAMBIA COUNTY, AL… Breezy (15-25 mph) conditions are expected at times. Wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph may be possible at times. Tornadoes will become possible on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours. The tornado risk may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most serious risk will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and river/creek flooding that continues long after the circulation of Sally moves away. Rain totals are likely to be in the 3-6″ range in total across Escambia County, AL. Heavy rain is likely at times from Monday through Thursday.

Locations: Brewton, East Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Riverview, Poarch, Huxford, Wallace, Barnett Crossroads, Pineview, Wawbeek, Canoe, Nokomis, Appleton, Kirkland, Dixie, Roberts, Damascus, Pollard/McCall.

CONECUH COUNTY, AL… Breezy (15-25 mph) conditions are expected at times. Tornadoes will become possible on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours. The tornado risk may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most serious risk will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and river/creek flooding that continues long after the circulation of Sally moves away. Rain totals may vary quite a bit across Conecuh County, but most spots will pick up 2 to 5 inches of rainfall in total due to Sally. Heavy rain is likely at times from Monday through Thursday.

Locations: Evergreen, Castleberry, Owassa, Repton, Lenox, Range, Burnt Corn, Lyeffion, Centerville, Johnsonville, Brooklyn, Paul, Melrose, Old Sparta, Jay Villa, Belleville.

COVINGTON COUNTY, AL… Breezy (15-25 mph) conditions are expected at times. Tornadoes will become possible on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours. The tornado risk may extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most serious risk will likely be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and river/creek flooding that continues long after the circulation of Sally moves away. Rain totals may vary quite a bit across Covington County, but most spots will pick up 2 to 6 inches of rainfall in total due to Sally. Heavy rain is likely at times from Monday through Thursday.

Locations: Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Rose Hill, Onycha, Red Oak, Green Bay, Straughn, Red Level, Gantt, Clearview, Carolina, Pleasant Home, Wing, Sanford, Libertyville, Eoda, Horn Hill, Lockhart, River Falls, Loango, Fairfield.

BUTLER COUNTY, AL… No major impacts are expected. Isolated tornadoes will be possible Monday into Monday night, but the risk is greater in counties to the southwest. Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding could happen, especially Monday through Wednesday. Breezy (10-20 mph wind gusts) conditions may become possible Monday evening into Tuesday. No widespread, damaging winds are expected since the core of Sally will pass to our southwest. Heavy rain will be possible at times Monday into Monday night.

Locations: Greenville, Georgiana, Chapman, Bolling, Grace, Garland, Oaky Streak, Daisy, Halso Mill, Starlington, Forest Home.

SET UP APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

NEXT UPDATE… I will have a detailed, live video update a bit later this evening. Hope you’ll join us for that. Have a great Saturday evening!

RZW EXEC: LOCAL TROPICAL IMPACTS LIKELY MIDWEEK… RZW Exec partners, good Friday afternoon! Chances of a tropical storm developing have rapidly increased today. The National Hurricane Center says there is now an 80% chance a tropical storm will form or move into the southeastern Gulf by Monday. This system will likely move toward our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida by midweek. Local impacts will become possible as early as Tuesday evening and extend potentially until Friday morning. Most likely, impacts from this system will happen Wednesday into Thursday.

High confidence: Heavy rain at times (specifically near the coast), gusty (50-60 mph) winds at the immediate coast, breezy (15-25 mph) conditions inland.

Low confidence, but possible: Isolated tornadoes, higher winds across the region, flash flooding, coastal flooding, and storm surge.

Models will begin to get a better handle on this system as it continues to organize today into tonight, but please be aware this weekend that we could have a strong tropical storm or perhaps a hurricane moving into our region or perhaps areas just to the west of us by midweek.

I will have another RZW Exec bulletin tomorrow (Saturday) evening or sooner, if needed. Please find our public messaging below. As always, please let me know if you have any decision support needs. Thank you.

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY; LOCAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE MIDWEEK… There is now an 80% chance that a tropical storm forms or moves into the southeastern Gulf early next week. Local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will be possible from this developing system. NHC now suggests a tropical depression may form as soon as tonight due to INVEST 96L, the tropical disturbance currently moving west across The Bahamas. Surface observations in The Bahamas indicate barometric pressure readings in the area are falling, indicating a system that is organizing and developing on this Friday afternoon. Local impacts will become possible in south Alabama and northwest Florida from this system by the middle part of the upcoming week. It is too early to know just how strong this tropical system will be when it moves inland midweek, most likely along the northern Gulf Coast region, somewhere close to our local area. From this point forward, we will have the “potential local impacts” discussion as the second paragraph in each post until this tropical threat has passed. Please always check the 2nd paragraph in each of our subsequent update posts to see what we can expect locally. A few more Friday afternoon forecast details are below.

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – INVEST 96L… Confidence is high that increased rain chances will happen Tuesday through Thursday as INVEST 96L (or the tropical storm or hurricane it becomes) passes near or over our area. High waves and deadly rip currents will be concerns at all Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Confidence is much lower on other potential local impacts, but depending on the strength of 96L as the system approaches our area, other hazards may be possible. This includes the potential for high winds (50-60 mph) at the immediate coast with wind gusts over hurricane force, isolated tornadoes across the region, coastal flooding, and flash flooding. We will know more about potential local impacts by Sunday into Monday as we get a better grip of just how strong this system will be.

HURRICANE INTENSITY POSSIBLE AT LANDFALL… Let me emphasize it is too early to know just how strong INVEST 96L will be at the time the system makes landfall by midweek. Early model guidance suggests a strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane being the most likely scenario. We’re looking at somewhat of a “double edged sword” situation. Fortunately, the system will be moving at a decent clip (8-12 mph) as it moves northwest across the Gulf. Unfortunately, that means the system WILL have 48-72 hours over the warm waters of the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. That means the system will have enough time to become stronger. Another concern is that upper-level winds look favorable for at least some intensification before landfall. Keep in mind that we’re still early in this process and future intensity is arguably the most difficult aspect of tropical storm and hurricane forecasting.

LANDFALL LIKELY SOMEWHERE ALONG NORTHERN GULF COAST… Confidence is pretty high that this tropical disturbance will likely move ashore somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast midweek. I would suggest interests from Apalachicola, FL westward to Morgan City, LA should keep a close watch on this system in the days ahead.

NOW IS THE TIME TO START THINKING ABOUT YOUR PLAN… We are in the peak of hurricane season. This type of situation SHOULD be expected. There is nothing abnormal about a tropical disturbance growing to tropical storm or hurricane intensity this time of year, especially a system in the Gulf or southwestern Atlantic Ocean. I say that to say: It is important to have a hurricane preparation plan in place for the duration of hurricane season, but *especially* in the month of September, which is historically the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Know where you would go if you live in an evacuation zone closer to the coast. Do you have plenty of medicine, supplies, and food in case a hurricane threatens your area? All things we need to begin thinking about if we haven’t already.

PAULETTE & RENE IN THE ATLANTIC… Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene remain out at sea in the Atlantic Ocean. Paulette could be a significant issue for Bermuda in about 4 days, as the system is expected to become a hurricane this weekend. Paulette will then rapidly move northeast and out to sea. Rene will likely remain out at sea before dissipating in about a week.

MORE TROPICAL WAVES SET TO EMERGE… Two more tropical waves have emerged into the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center says there is a 90% and 40% chance, respectively, of these two tropical waves becoming tropical storms in the days ahead. The “front” wave will likely move west and could be an issue for the Lesser Antilles in 5-6 days. The newly emerged wave with a 40% chance of development will likely move out to sea and not threaten land areas.

APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

NEXT UPDATE… I will have another detailed update posted later this evening by 10PM at the latest, followed by the latest information on Saturday morning at 7:15AM. Until then, be sure to join me in the RedZone Weather app for shorter, more frequent updates. Have a nice evening!

RZW EXEC: TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN GULF… RZW Exec partners, good Thursday evening! We are initiating RZW Exec bulletins on a tropical disturbance that has a growing chance of becoming a tropical storm early next week in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. There is currently an area of cloudiness and disturbed weather situated to the east of The Bahamas. This tropical disturbance will move westward and over The Bahamas tomorrow (Friday) into Saturday, and then over South Florida Saturday into Sunday. The disturbance is expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf (areas west of Ft. Myers, FL) Sunday into Monday. That is when the system may become a tropical storm. Upper-level winds seem favorable and sea surface temperatures are like a hot-tub in that part of the Gulf (running 85-87 degrees!). We will need to closely monitor this system as early model guidance does suggest a potential path toward the northern Gulf Coast. Way too early to know specifics, but I would suggest interests from Morgan City, Louisiana eastward to Apalachicola, Florida (including our entire local area) should begin to at least be aware of this system. I’ll have your next RZW Exec bulletin emailed to you by 7PM on Friday. Below, you’ll find our public post detailing each tropical system we’re tracking this evening. While the tropics are quite active, this is at least somewhat expected as we climatologically are in the peak days of hurricane season. As always, please let me know if you have any decision support needs. Thanks!

PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON TODAY: 40% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN GULF… There is a growing (now 40%) chance that a tropical disturbance, currently moving into The Bahamas from the east, will become a tropical storm in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. We have reached the official peak of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season as of tonight, and right on track, the tropics are *very* active. While it is too early to know if hazardous weather will be a possibility across our local area due to the disturbance likely to move into the Gulf, increased rain chances are expected across our local area due to this feature by Tuesday and Wednesday of the upcoming week. It is also too early to know exactly where this possible developing tropical storm will end up. Interests in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida, including all of our local area, should closely monitor the progress of this developing storm. In addition, we’re also watching a distinct, separate area of low pressure currently in the central Gulf that will be pulled to the southwest toward the Texas or Mexico coastline in the days ahead. As if that isn’t enough, two more tropical waves are expected to emerge from Africa in the far eastern Atlantic in the days ahead. These two tropical waves have a 90% and 40% (respectively) chance of developing into named tropical storms. Below is a look at all of your tropical weather details on this Thursday evening.

PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON IS TODAY… We have reached the climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. While the next few weeks will likely to continue to be active in late September and early October, there is a good chance we will **finally** see quieter conditions in the tropics as we get into the second half of October and early November. Hurricane season officially ends on Monday, November 30. That is a day we all will be looking forward to enjoying.

SEPARATE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE TOWARD NORTHERN MEXICO… This evening, there is an open trough of low pressure located in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. This area of low pressure is basically due south of our local coastline. NHC suggests there is a low (10-20%) chance that this disturbance develops as it slowly moves southwest toward the Texas and Mexico coast this weekend into early next week. Direct local impacts, other than potential rip currents at area beaches, are not expected because of this system.

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE LIKELY TO AFFECT BERMUDA AS A HURRICANE… I am thankful Tropical Storm Paulette has remained out at sea as the storm remains a considerable forecasting challenge. Paulette currently has maximum winds of 50 mph. The latest forecast for Paulette from NHC calls for the system to strengthen into a hurricane on Sunday before moving very near Bermuda on Monday. After approach to Bermuda, Paulette will likely begin rapidly moving northeast and out to sea into the north Atlantic Ocean. Direct local impacts from Tropical Storm Paulette in Alabama and northwest Florida are not expected.

RENE LIKELY TO BE A HURRICANE, BUT REMAIN OVER OPEN OCEAN… Tropical Storm Rene continues to move west-northwest across the east-central part of the Atlantic Ocean. Rene will likely become a hurricane on Saturday, but the entirety of the forecast track keeps the system completely out at sea in the days ahead. Rene is not a direct concern for Alabama or northwest Florida and direct local impacts are not expected.

TROPICAL WAVE LIKELY TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM SOON… There is a robust tropical wave, located “behind” or east of Tropical Storm Rene, emerging from Africa this evening. NHC says there is a very high (90%) chance that this system becomes a tropical storm in the days ahead. From NHC: “A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form by this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.” It remains way too early to speculate where this system will end up, although most major global models agree this system will likely take a route farther to the south than Paulette and Rene, meaning impacts to the Leeward Islands may be possible in about a week or so.

ANOTHER WAVE TO EMERGE FROM AFRICA… The “African wave train,” as it is known, is set to continue with yet another tropical wave slated to move into the eastern Atlantic by Sunday or Monday. NHC indicates there is already a 40% chance that this system will become a tropical storm as it moves west over the warm waters of the main development region of the Atlantic in the days ahead.

LOCALLY, SCATTERED STORMS THIS WEEKEND… Locally, we’ll have a round of showers and thunderstorms that develops on Friday, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. This will be the trend into the upcoming weekend as well with pop-up storms possible in the P.M. hours each day. High temperatures are slated to remain around the 90 degree mark with morning lows in the low-70s.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

NEXT UPDATE… I will have a detailed forecast video posted by 7:15AM on Friday with the very latest information on the active tropics. Have a nice Thursday evening!