RZW EXEC: LOCAL TROPICAL IMPACTS LIKELY MIDWEEK… RZW Exec partners, good Friday afternoon! Chances of a tropical storm developing have rapidly increased today. The National Hurricane Center says there is now an 80% chance a tropical storm will form or move into the southeastern Gulf by Monday. This system will likely move toward our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida by midweek. Local impacts will become possible as early as Tuesday evening and extend potentially until Friday morning. Most likely, impacts from this system will happen Wednesday into Thursday.
High confidence: Heavy rain at times (specifically near the coast), gusty (50-60 mph) winds at the immediate coast, breezy (15-25 mph) conditions inland.
Low confidence, but possible: Isolated tornadoes, higher winds across the region, flash flooding, coastal flooding, and storm surge.
Models will begin to get a better handle on this system as it continues to organize today into tonight, but please be aware this weekend that we could have a strong tropical storm or perhaps a hurricane moving into our region or perhaps areas just to the west of us by midweek.
I will have another RZW Exec bulletin tomorrow (Saturday) evening or sooner, if needed. Please find our public messaging below. As always, please let me know if you have any decision support needs. Thank you.
TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY; LOCAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE MIDWEEK… There is now an 80% chance that a tropical storm forms or moves into the southeastern Gulf early next week. Local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will be possible from this developing system. NHC now suggests a tropical depression may form as soon as tonight due to INVEST 96L, the tropical disturbance currently moving west across The Bahamas. Surface observations in The Bahamas indicate barometric pressure readings in the area are falling, indicating a system that is organizing and developing on this Friday afternoon. Local impacts will become possible in south Alabama and northwest Florida from this system by the middle part of the upcoming week. It is too early to know just how strong this tropical system will be when it moves inland midweek, most likely along the northern Gulf Coast region, somewhere close to our local area. From this point forward, we will have the “potential local impacts” discussion as the second paragraph in each post until this tropical threat has passed. Please always check the 2nd paragraph in each of our subsequent update posts to see what we can expect locally. A few more Friday afternoon forecast details are below.
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – INVEST 96L… Confidence is high that increased rain chances will happen Tuesday through Thursday as INVEST 96L (or the tropical storm or hurricane it becomes) passes near or over our area. High waves and deadly rip currents will be concerns at all Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Confidence is much lower on other potential local impacts, but depending on the strength of 96L as the system approaches our area, other hazards may be possible. This includes the potential for high winds (50-60 mph) at the immediate coast with wind gusts over hurricane force, isolated tornadoes across the region, coastal flooding, and flash flooding. We will know more about potential local impacts by Sunday into Monday as we get a better grip of just how strong this system will be.
HURRICANE INTENSITY POSSIBLE AT LANDFALL… Let me emphasize it is too early to know just how strong INVEST 96L will be at the time the system makes landfall by midweek. Early model guidance suggests a strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane being the most likely scenario. We’re looking at somewhat of a “double edged sword” situation. Fortunately, the system will be moving at a decent clip (8-12 mph) as it moves northwest across the Gulf. Unfortunately, that means the system WILL have 48-72 hours over the warm waters of the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. That means the system will have enough time to become stronger. Another concern is that upper-level winds look favorable for at least some intensification before landfall. Keep in mind that we’re still early in this process and future intensity is arguably the most difficult aspect of tropical storm and hurricane forecasting.
LANDFALL LIKELY SOMEWHERE ALONG NORTHERN GULF COAST… Confidence is pretty high that this tropical disturbance will likely move ashore somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast midweek. I would suggest interests from Apalachicola, FL westward to Morgan City, LA should keep a close watch on this system in the days ahead.
NOW IS THE TIME TO START THINKING ABOUT YOUR PLAN… We are in the peak of hurricane season. This type of situation SHOULD be expected. There is nothing abnormal about a tropical disturbance growing to tropical storm or hurricane intensity this time of year, especially a system in the Gulf or southwestern Atlantic Ocean. I say that to say: It is important to have a hurricane preparation plan in place for the duration of hurricane season, but *especially* in the month of September, which is historically the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Know where you would go if you live in an evacuation zone closer to the coast. Do you have plenty of medicine, supplies, and food in case a hurricane threatens your area? All things we need to begin thinking about if we haven’t already.
PAULETTE & RENE IN THE ATLANTIC… Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene remain out at sea in the Atlantic Ocean. Paulette could be a significant issue for Bermuda in about 4 days, as the system is expected to become a hurricane this weekend. Paulette will then rapidly move northeast and out to sea. Rene will likely remain out at sea before dissipating in about a week.
MORE TROPICAL WAVES SET TO EMERGE… Two more tropical waves have emerged into the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center says there is a 90% and 40% chance, respectively, of these two tropical waves becoming tropical storms in the days ahead. The “front” wave will likely move west and could be an issue for the Lesser Antilles in 5-6 days. The newly emerged wave with a 40% chance of development will likely move out to sea and not threaten land areas.
APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have another detailed update posted later this evening by 10PM at the latest, followed by the latest information on Saturday morning at 7:15AM. Until then, be sure to join me in the RedZone Weather app for shorter, more frequent updates. Have a nice evening!