RZW EXEC: CRISTOBAL – WEDNESDAY UPDATE… RZW Exec partners, good Wednesday afternoon. We are tracking Tropical Storm Cristobal, currently situated onshore in eastern Mexico near the Bay of Campeche. The system is currently near the Mexican coastline and will meander over the same area for the next 24-36 hours. Dangerous mudslides and flash flooding are ongoing across parts of central America due to this system. Cristobal will slowly begin to move northward across the Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Forward speed will increase as the southerly flow pushing the system begins to increase. Gradual strengthening of Cristobal is expected as the storm crosses the Gulf, but I don’t expect rapid or extreme strengthening as upper-level shear should keep the system in check as the center approaches the Louisiana coastline on Sunday into early Monday. Please keep in mind that impacts can and will extend far from the center of circulation. This means that our area will have at least SOME level of impact from this system. Here is the breakdown on expected impacts…

Overview: Tropical Storm Cristobal will make its closest approach to our local area Sunday night into Monday. Cristobal will bring a period of wet/stormy weather to our region with heavy rainfall and flash flooding being the main concern. Isolated, brief tornadoes may become an issue near the immediate coast. At this point in the forecast, high winds are NOT expected locally, although breezy (15-25 mph winds) will be possible near the coast on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

Threat Levels & Locations: ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida will have the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding this weekend into early next week. The tornado risk will likely be confined to the immediate coastline. We may have to introduce a low-end tornado risk for west Alabama later this week, depending on the exact future track of Cristobal.

When: Heavy rain will be possible from Saturday through Tuesday. The risk of isolated tornadoes will be greatest Sunday into Monday.

Potential Hazards: Heavy rain and flash flooding will be the main concern. Isolated tornadoes will be possible, especially near the coast. Coastal flooding and beach erosion will be possible. Dangerous rip currents and high waves are expected at all local beaches.

Forecast Confidence: Medium-High. Model guidance has consistently pointed to a Louisiana landfall for Tropical Storm Cristobal, thus it looks like our overall impacts discussed above won’t change that much. IF the projected path of Cristobal changes significantly (not expected, but still a possibility), we will need to adjust impacts to account for the change.

As always, please let me know if you have any questions or have specific decision support needs. Below is the public, long form updated that will be posted later today. Have a great weekend!

CRISTOBAL TO BRING HEAVY RAIN & STORMS TO LOCAL AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… Unsettled weather is expected across the local area as we go into the weekend and early next week as Tropical Storm Cristobal approaches from the south with a landfall point in Louisiana looking increasingly likely. Heavy rain, gusty winds near the beach zones, and isolated tornadoes will become possible Saturday evening, Sunday, Monday, extending perhaps into early Tuesday. 3 to 6 inches of rainfall in total over the next several days will be the main concern locally with this system as flash flooding will be increasingly possible. There are many folks with questions about vacation plans. We’ve got that covered for you below. We’re also diving into the details concerning potential local impacts. See all of the specific information below…

SPECIFIC LOCAL IMPACTS FROM CRISTOBAL… Let me preface all of this by saying that IF significant forecast path adjustments are needed (not expected at this point, but still a small chance), we obviously will need to adjust the specific local impacts. For now, the biggest concern with Cristobal for south Alabama and northwest Florida will be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. 3 to 6 inches of rainfall in total are expected over the next 7 days across our area, with the greater amounts (5-6” of rain) likely happening near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Gusty winds (20-30 mph) will be possible at the immediate beach zones and near local bays and inlets on Sunday into Monday as Cristobal comes onshore to our west. Isolated, brief, spin-up tornadoes may become an issue Sunday into Monday near the coast. That is a potential we’ll have to watch over the next few days as specifics come more into focus. High waves and dangerous rip currents will also be likely at the local beaches. Coastal flooding and beach erosion could happen as well.

TO CANCEL OR NOT TO CANCEL YOUR BEACH TRIP… This weekend is going to be quite soggy, to say the least, at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. The greater rain chance will inevitably be on Sunday into Monday, but there will be scattered to numerous showers and storms involved on Saturday as well. I continue to receive questions about vacation plans and trips to the local beaches on this Wednesday. I can’t really give specific recommendations as everyone has a different tolerance as to what they’re willing to deal with, but what I can tell you is confidence is now high that rain (with heavy rain at times) will be happening for much of the day on Sunday and on Monday. Beach access will probably be limited or closed with double red flags likely at most local beach locations. Rain chances will remain high Tuesday into Wednesday as an anomalously high amount of Gulf moisture continues to stream into our region long after Cristobal makes landfall to our west.

1PM WEDNESDAY ADVISORY – TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL… The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 1PM CDT on Wednesday, June 3 continues to indicate that Cristobal is not moving very much at all. The system is moving to the south-southeast at 3 mph. That means that this large tropical system is dropping very large amounts of rain over eastern Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, and Honduras. As of 1PM, the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal is located at 18.4° North and 91.9° West. That is basically right over Ciudad Del Carmen, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are at 50 mph. Minimum central pressure is at 996 millibars. Further weakening is expected as Cristobal continues to interact with the land area of eastern Mexico.

CRISTOBAL LIKELY WON’T MOVE MUCH IN THE HOURS AHEAD… Unfortunately for Mexico and central America, Tropical Storm Cristobal won’t be moving that much over the next 24-36 hours. This will allow ongoing mudslide situations to get worse. Cristobal will slowly begin to lift northward across the eastern part of the Bay of Campeche (southern Gulf of Mexico) on Friday. Keep in mind that even on Saturday morning, this storm will still be in the southern part of the Gulf of Mexico. The faster, northerly movement will commence during the day on Saturday.

CENTER OF CRISTOBAL TO APPROACH LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… The latest projected path from the National Hurricane Center shows the cone of uncertainty extending from Houston, Texas eastward to Mobile, Alabama. This is the stretch of coastline where a landfall point is most likely to happen. This means that the state of Louisiana is directly in the center of the cone of uncertainty, meaning landfall is most likely to happen somewhere in that state. NHC ramps the system up to a formidable tropical storm (max winds of 65 mph) right before landfall. There is an off chance that Cristobal briefly becomes a hurricane before landfall. One bit of good news is that southwesterly shear will likely be increasing as Cristobal moves north across the Gulf, thus potentially helping to limit overall strengthening.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES TO OUR WEST TOMORROW OR FRIDAY… A Tropical Storm Watch will become necessary for parts of Louisiana tomorrow (Thursday) or Friday ahead of Cristobal’s projected arrival on Sunday into Monday. There is a chance that parts of the Mississippi and perhaps even the Alabama coast will go under a Tropical Storm Watch as well, considering gusty winds (maybe as high as tropical storm force) will be a concern with this system.

RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH INTO NEXT WEEK… The center of circulation associated with Cristobal will continue to move northward on Monday into Tuesday of next week. This will keep the overflow wind flow across our area out of the south, as we will likely remain on the eastern flank of the system. This will allow copious amounts of Gulf moisture to continue to move into our area, keeping rain chances high on Tuesday into Wednesday of the upcoming week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day.

Overview: There is a risk of a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms across the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida later this evening (Friday, May 8, 2020).

Threat Levels & Locations: The Storm Prediction Center has much of west Alabama involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight severe weather risk. Northwest Florida and south central Alabama are involved in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone.

When: 3PM this afternoon to 3AM on Saturday is the 12 hour window when strong to severe storms are most likely to happen. 6PM to midnight is the 6 hour “core window” for strong to severe storms.

Potential Hazards: Damaging wind gusts, hail, and maybe a tornado or two. The tornado risk is low, but it is not entirely zero.

As always, please let me know if you have any questions or have specific decision support needs. Below is the public, long form updated that will be posted with the morning video. Have a great weekend!

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING… Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on this Friday, primarily in the evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center has added a Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk for much of west Alabama, with the remainder of us across the region being involved in the lower-end, Level 1 risk. The overall risk of tornadoes today is low. It’s not completely zero, but it is low across the region. The greater concern will be damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms. Large hail, up to the size of a quarter, and lightning will also be concerns. Rain and storms will roll by tonight and be out of our area by 3AM on Saturday. Clouds will linger into Saturday and Sunday before we have an extended streak of sunny, dry, warm weather next week. Let’s look at the forecast details.

LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK… The Storm Prediction Center has added a Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk for much of west Alabama on this Friday. This Level 2 risk includes Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Marengo, and Choctaw counties in west Alabama. These are the counties that have a slightly higher risk of strong to severe storms that will be capable of producing gusty winds and perhaps a tornado or two. A Level 2 risk means that scattered severe storms will be possible.

LEVEL 1 RISK FOR THE REST OF US… We note that all other areas (outside of the Level 2 risk mentioned above) in south Alabama and northwest Florida are involved in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk. A Level 1 risk means widespread severe weather is not expected, but a brief, unruly storm that ramps up to severe levels will be possible. This Level 1 risk includes Monroe, Conecuh, Butler, Covington, Escambia (AL), Crenshaw, Wilcox, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties.

MAIN CONCERNS – GUSTY WINDS… Any storms that become strong later today into tonight will be capable of producing gusty winds that could knock down a few trees. The overall tornado risk is low, but it is not zero. The tornado risk is low enough that I would encourage folks not to stress over it today, but it is high enough that I will be close by our RedZone Weather studio in case a rogue tornado warning is needed today. That will be more of an anomaly than a trend, I would think, based on the latest model guidance. Have a way to hear tornado warnings and if you get a warning, TAKE ACTION to protect yourself.

RAIN & STORM TIMING – TODAY… While isolated showers may happen from this morning into the evening, I expect the 12 hour window for showers and thunderstorms to be from 3PM this afternoon to 3AM on Saturday. The core risk for stronger storms will be from 6PM to midnight.

RAIN MOVES OUT LATER TONIGHT; COOLER SATURDAY… Cooler air will surge in behind the cold front that is partially responsible for the rain and storms today. This cooler air will be much more stable and dry compared to the airmass out ahead of the front that will be in place this afternoon. Rain will move out at or before 4AM on Saturday, meaning the daytime hours of Saturday should be dry. High temperatures on Saturday will be around the 70 degree mark as cooler, drier air continues to filter into our region. Clouds will persist into the afternoon and evening hours despite rain being long gone to our south.

DRY, QUIET FEW DAYS TO START NEXT WEEK… Sunday will be the start of a warm, sunny, dry slew of days next week. Highs on Sunday will be around 78° with temperatures steadily increasing each afternoon through Thursday. By the time we get to the end of next week, highs will be around the 90 degree mark.

TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the graphics and details in your Friday #rzw forecast video. Have a great weekend!

Overview: There is a low-end risk of a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms across the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida on Wednesday, April 29, 2020.

Threat Levels & Locations: The Storm Prediction Center has ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida involved in their Level 1 (out of 5) risk, meaning most storms will likely remain under severe limits. There could be a rogue stronger storm or two capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado.

When: 10AM to 10PM on Wednesday is the 12 hour window when strong to severe storms are most likely to happen. 1PM to 7PM is the 6 hour “core window” when we will have the most available heat content in the atmosphere for storms to use.

Potential Hazards: Gusty winds, hail, and maybe a tornado or two. The tornado risk is low, but it is not entirely zero.

As always, please let me know if you have any questions or have specific decision support needs. Below is the public, long form updated that will be posted in the next hour or so. Have a great Monday evening!

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY… Thunderstorms are ahead for Wednesday, primarily in the daytime hours, across south Alabama and northwest Florida as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The Storm Prediction Center has included ALL of our local area in their Level 1 (out of 5) low-end, marginal severe weather risk valid for Wednesday. This means that a stronger (or severe) storm or two cannot be completely ruled out. For most, this will be a rain event with some embedded thunderstorms. The main concerns in any of the stronger storms will be damaging wind gusts, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. The overall tornado risk remains low, but not entirely zero. This means we need everyone to be “weather aware” on Wednesday in case your particular location goes under a tornado warning or severe thunderstorm warning. Let’s look at your details.

NICE & WARM ON TUESDAY… Before we get to Wednesday, a nice Tuesday is ahead. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-80s across the region. Cloud coverage will increase throughout the day from west to east. Rain will likely hold off until we get to Wednesday morning.

WHAT TO EXPECT WEDNESDAY… For MOST across our region, this will be a good rain event with half an inch to one inch of rainfall being likely in most spots. There will be isolated higher and lower amounts, but most of us will fall into the 0.5”-1” range. There could be isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms, but those will be the anomaly in this situation and probably not widespread or numerous.

WEDNESDAY – SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… 10AM to 10PM will be the twelve hour window when strong to severe storms are most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The core risk timeframe will be from 11AM to 7PM, meaning most (if not all) of the stronger storms should happen before sunset. After sunset, the atmosphere should quickly begin to stabilize across our region as instability values plummet behind the advancing cold front. We should be able to give everyone across our region an “all clear” before 11PM or perhaps much earlier in the evening!

MAIN CONCERNS: GUSTY WINDS & HAIL… The main concerns in the stronger thunderstorms on Wednesday will be gusty winds that could down a few trees across the region. Large hail up to the size of a quarter will also be possible. The overall tornado risk remains low. This means the tornado risk is NOT zero, but it does remain low. One or two tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out in an environment like this. As always, if we happen to have a tornado warning across our local area, we will provide uninterrupted live video coverage to bring you the very latest.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE LATER THIS WEEK; BUILDING HEAT… Thursday through Sunday will feature plenty of sunshine with increasing temperatures. We start on Thursday with highs in the 80s but end up in the MID-90s (!) by Sunday afternoon as a big ridge of high pressure builds into our region, allowing temperatures to soar to what will feel like summer!

TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!

APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

My next detailed forecast post will be available by 7:15AM tomorrow (Tuesday) morning. Have a great evening!

Overview: Two distinct rounds of severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida on Thursday, April 23. One round of strong to severe storms in the morning is expected to be less impactful and affect inland areas of south Alabama. The other round of severe storms could be quite impactful, with multiple tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding being possible. There is a chance a few of the tornadoes could be strong (EF2+), although confidence in that idea is not high at this point.

Threat Levels & Locations: The Storm Prediction Center has ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida involved in their Level 3 (out of 5) risk, meaning numerous severe storms will be likely across the area.

When: There will be two distinct severe weather risk timeframes on Thursday. The first risk will be a lower-end risk of damaging winds, brief tornadoes, hail, and flash flooding from 5AM to 2PM. This lower-end risk is mainly for inland areas of south Alabama. The second, likely more significant, risk starts at 2PM and extends to 11PM. This is the window when tornadoes (maybe a strong tornado or two), damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding will be possible. While 2PM to 11PM is the timeframe, the core of this risk will probably be from 4PM to 9PM.

Thursday Morning Risks: Damaging wind gusts and a brief, spin-up tornado or two.

Thursday Evening Risks: Tornadoes (some potentially being significant/strong), widespread damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding.

As always, please let me know if you have any questions or have specific decision support needs. Below is the public, long form post that will debut with my next video at 7AM. Thank you!

SEVERE STORMS LIKELY THURSDAY; LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK… Multiple rounds of severe weather will be possible tomorrow (Thursday, April 23) with tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding being possible across ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida. One round will likely be a decaying squall line that moves across our area on Thursday morning, while the more potent round could feature intense supercell storms that may produce tornadoes. There is a chance some of the tornadoes could be on the strong side, although there is uncertainty with that idea still this morning. The Storm Prediction Center basically left the convective outlook nearly the exact same as it was yesterday, although we do note more of west Alabama (Choctaw, Marengo, and Sumter counties) are now in the higher Level 3 (out of 5) risk. Those 3 counties join the rest of us across the southern half of Alabama and all of northwest Florida in this Level 3 enhanced risk. Further outlook upgrades and modifications are possible over the next 24 hours. After the severe weather on Thursday, it looks like we get an extended break from the active weather for awhile as we have officially stripped out the risk of storms for Sunday! Let’s look at all of your forecast details.

NICE TODAY, CLOUDS INCREASING… Partly cloudy skies this morning will give way to increasing cloudiness later this evening. High temperatures on this Wednesday will be in the mid-80s. We are not expecting any severe weather issues until Wednesday morning locally.

ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT… There could be a few areas of rain around this evening, tonight, and into Thursday morning. Tonight, the best chance of a few showers and maybe a storm or two will happen over west Alabama. Most spots will remain dry till Thursday morning.

ISOLATED STRONG POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY MORNING… The first round of strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday will happen in the morning hours. Storms may start as early as 5AM over west Alabama, but for most of us, this round of storms will be from 7AM to 11AM. I expect this decaying squall line of storms to move in from southeast Mississippi and continue to weaken as it moves eastward across the inland parts of our region. There is a chance that during the morning hours of Thursday that coastal areas remain completely dry and miss the first round of storms entirely. I would go as far to say that is likely at this point. It’s not certain, but there is a good chance this weakening line of storms won’t be impactful for most locales. There could be a few isolated severe storms as the line rolls through, with the main concerns being damaging winds and maybe a brief tornado or two.

MORE SIGNIFICANT STORMS LIKELY P.M. THURSDAY… Thursday afternoon, and especially into the evening hours, is when I expect the highest potential for severe thunderstorms locally. Large, supercell thunderstorms will be the main concern. These supercells will likely fire up across southeast Mississippi or west Alabama and move across our region from west to east. The concern in these supercells will be tornadoes and large hail. Some model indications point to the potential for strong tornadoes, but there is less certainty in that idea at this moment because we just don’t know exactly HOW impactful the first round of storms in the morning will be. If the squall line in the morning “overperforms,” it could really work over the atmosphere thus leaving little instability for storms in the evening to use. There also has been some guidance showing more rain to the south across coastal areas that could limit inflow to the supercell storms to the north. Another train of thought suggests there could initially be supercells over west Alabama that converge into more of a squall line that would elevate the damaging wind risk but mitigate/lessen the overall tornado risk. All of these intricacies add to the overall uncertainty of the situation, which is why we don’t have a higher risk level (Level 4) in place as of this moment.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS – THURSDAY… All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, large hail, and flash flooding. The greater tornado risk will likely set up across inland counties, but at this point we cannot rule any local area out of the risk zone. We all have a risk of severe weather until late Thursday evening.

UPDATED THIS MORNING: SEVERE WEATHER TIMING ON THURSDAY… There will be two distinct severe weather risk timeframes on Thursday. The first risk will be a lower-end risk of damaging winds, brief tornadoes, hail, and flash flooding from 5AM to 2PM. This lower-end risk is mainly for inland areas of south Alabama. The second, likely more significant, risk starts at 2PM and extends to 11PM. This is the window when tornadoes (maybe a strong tornado or two), damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding will be possible. While 2PM to 11PM is the timeframe, the core of this risk will probably be from 4PM to 9PM. Big takeaway: Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings all day on Thursday and into the late evening hours!

LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK… This has not changed since my previous update last night. All locales in south Alabama and all locales in northwest Florida are involved in this Level 3 risk valid for Thursday. Level 3 risk on Thursday: Mobile, Pensacola, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Straughn, Red Level, Wing, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Chapman, Forest Home, Evergreen, Castleberry, Lenox, Repton, Range, Belleville, Owassa, Lyeffion, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Frisco City, Excel, Mexia, Perdue Hill, Peterman, Grove Hill, Thomasville, Jackson, Coffeeville, Whatley, Chatom, Leroy, Wagerville, McIntosh, Millry, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Flomaton, Brewton, Damascus, Bay Minette, Stockton, Stapleton, Loxley, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Magnolia Springs, Elberta, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Wilmer, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Saraland, Satsuma, Creola, Prichard, Theodore, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Century, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Molino, Ensley, Gonzalez, Cantonment, Warrington, Pensacola Beach, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Milton, Pace, Jay, Chumuckla, Brownsdale, Berrydale, Whitfield, Munson, Crestview, Laurel Hill, Baker, Milligan, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Mary Esther, Niceville, and surrounding areas. These are just a few of the locales involved. If you don’t see your specific town and you’re in south Alabama or northwest Florida, you’re still included in this Level 3 (out of 5) risk.

LEVEL 3 RISK TO OUR NORTH & EAST… This also has not changed since my previous update last night. Much of central and southeast Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle is also involved in this Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone: Birmingham, Montgomery, Auburn, Opelika, Dothan, Geneva, Samson, Slocomb, Enterprise, Elba, Daleville, Abbeville, Eufaula, Union Springs, Troy, Hayneville, Selma, Camden, Linden, Sweet Water, Demopolis, Marion, Centreville, Clanton, Prattville, Wetumpka, Alexander City, Valley, Lanett, Tuskegee, Rockford, Talladega, Heflin, Lake Martin, Hoover, Leeds, Roanoke, Marianna, Panama City, Seaside, DeFuniak Springs, Port St. Joe, Tallahassee, Atlanta (GA), Macon (GA), Valdosta (GA), Savannah (GA), Jacksonville (FL), and surrounding areas.

WARM & SUNNY ON FRIDAY… We get a well-deserved long break from severe weather starting on Friday! Yep, that’s right, Friday. The severe weather risk for Sunday has been stripped from the forecast (more about that below). Sunny skies are expected on Friday with high temperatures in the mid-80s.

FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING… There is a chance we could have a few passing showers and general (non-severe) thunderstorms on Saturday, particularly in the morning hours. Some communities probably will have no rain at all while others may have a passing storm. There could be some thunder involved at times but this will definitely be a round of showers and storms where the “bark is worse than the bite” for many places. Cloud-to-ground lightning could happen in the stronger thunderstorms but severe weather is not expected. Partly cloudy skies are expected on Saturday during the afternoon hours with high temperatures in the mid-80s.

NO MORE SEVERE WEATHER RISK ON SUNDAY… I am thrilled to conclude the forecast sections of this post by being able to report that we have stripped out the chance of showers and thunderstorms for Sunday. There is now no longer a severe weather risk for Sunday at this point! Some earlier model guidance pointed to a round of storms, but that is now off the table. Sunday into Monday will be sunny and warm with no rain expected. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-80s with morning lows in the 50s. Next week shows the potential for a few showers and perhaps some thunderstorms on Wednesday, April 29.

TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!

APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have more updates later today in the RedZone Weather app. My next long form, detailed post will be available tonight when we assess the situation for Thursday. See you then!

RZW EXEC: MORE SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Tuesday morning! I know everyone must be fatigued of all the severe weather issues we have been having as of late, especially the folks across our region who endured significant damage due to the tornadoes and damaging winds on Sunday. Unfortunately, we have another potentially significant severe weather risk setting up for this Thursday, April 23, 2020. Unlike the last two severe weather events, this potential is setting up in the morning into the early afternoon locally as opposed to the late evening hours. Below is the public post I’ll be pushing out at 7AM via all of our platforms. As always, please let me know if you have any specific decision support needs. Have a great Tuesday!

MORE TORNADOES & SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY; LEVEL 3 RISK INTRODUCED… Unfortunately, we have another potentially potent round of severe weather setting up for this Thursday (April 23) across Alabama and northwest Florida as our “wave train” of severe storm systems continues. The Storm Prediction Center has ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida involved in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk. This means that numerous severe storms are expected. Further outlook upgrades may be required over the next 48 hours. Tornadoes, damaging winds, flash flooding, and large hail will be the concerns, meaning all modes of severe weather will be possible. There is a chance, based on some model scenarios, that strong (EF2+) tornadoes may be possible locally. I don’t say any of this to scare anyone but I do need everyone to pay close attention to our updates over the next 2 days ahead of this potentially significant severe weather event. All the details are below.

NICE & SUNNY TODAY; CLOUDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY… Before we get to our next round of active weather on Thursday, we have two very nice days ahead today and tomorrow. Mostly sunny skies are expected on this Tuesday. High temperatures will peak in the low-80s across our region. Overnight lows will be in the mid-50s again by 6AM Wednesday ahead of increasing cloudiness across the area by Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures on Wednesday will peak in the 80-83° range.

SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING… We could have a few spotty areas of rain Wednesday night after 9PM, especially across west Alabama in areas west of the Alabama River (Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Marengo counties). Communities on the eastern flank of our area like Crestview, Destin, Andalusia, Opp, Greenville, and Luverne will probably be dry until we get to the early morning hours of Thursday.

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY… Again, I know folks are probably sick of hearing about severe weather. I understand. It certainly is not ideal, by any stretch of the imagination, to have back-to-back-to-BACK significant severe weather events like this. Perhaps now more than ever when people may be tuning all of this out, please tag someone that may not be as “weather aware” as you are. We need everyone to be aware of the potential for tornadoes and damaging winds across our region yet again on Thursday.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS – THURSDAY… All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, large hail, and flash flooding. The greater tornado risk may set up on the eastern half of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida where the better combination of “atmospheric ingredients” may come together to support tornadoes.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – THURSDAY… 5AM to 3PM will be the ten hour window when strong to severe storms are most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The core window for severe storms will be from 9AM to 2PM. We will probably have to tweak the timing of the severe weather potential slightly over the next 24 hours as we continue to parse through the latest model guidance. Be sure to check back with me later tonight and tomorrow (Wednesday) morning for an update.

LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK… All locales in south Alabama and all locales in northwest Florida are involved in this Level 3 risk valid for Thursday. Level 3 risk on Thursday: Mobile, Pensacola, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Straughn, Red Level, Wing, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Chapman, Forest Home, Evergreen, Castleberry, Lenox, Repton, Range, Belleville, Owassa, Lyeffion, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Frisco City, Excel, Mexia, Perdue Hill, Peterman, Grove Hill, Thomasville, Jackson, Coffeeville, Whatley, Chatom, Leroy, Wagerville, McIntosh, Millry, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Flomaton, Brewton, Damascus, Bay Minette, Stockton, Stapleton, Loxley, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Magnolia Springs, Elberta, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Wilmer, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Saraland, Satsuma, Creola, Prichard, Theodore, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Century, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Molino, Ensley, Gonzalez, Cantonment, Warrington, Pensacola Beach, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Milton, Pace, Jay, Chumuckla, Brownsdale, Berrydale, Whitfield, Munson, Crestview, Laurel Hill, Baker, Milligan, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Mary Esther, Niceville, and surrounding areas. These are just a few of the locales involved. If you don’t see your specific town and you’re in south Alabama or northwest Florida, you’re still included in this Level 3 (out of 5) risk.

LEVEL 3 RISK TO OUR NORTH & EAST… Much of central and southeast Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle is also involved in this Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone: Birmingham, Montgomery, Auburn, Opelika, Dothan, Geneva, Samson, Slocomb, Enterprise, Elba, Daleville, Abbeville, Eufaula, Union Springs, Troy, Hayneville, Selma, Camden, Linden, Sweet Water, Demopolis, Marion, Centreville, Clanton, Prattville, Wetumpka, Alexander City, Valley, Lanett, Tuskegee, Rockford, Talladega, Heflin, Lake Martin, Hoover, Leeds, Roanoke, Marianna, Panama City, Seaside, DeFuniak Springs, Port St. Joe, Tallahassee, Atlanta (GA), Macon (GA), Valdosta (GA), Savannah (GA), Jacksonville (FL), and surrounding areas.

DON’T FALL INTO THE COMPARISON TRAP… I do not like to get into the “comparison game” where folks attempt to compare past and future severe weather events. Will this severe weather event on Thursday be similar to the high impact, widespread event that happened two days ago on Sunday with multiple tornadoes and widespread damage? It is possible, but I also cannot say that definitively. This certainly is NOT a low-end event as the risk is higher than that. The truth is if a tornado OR damaging winds affects you in any way, shape, or form, that is a big deal. Bottom line: Be ready for severe weather again on Thursday.

APRIL IS OUR BIG SEVERE WEATHER MONTH… Keep in mind that while it may feel exhausting or frustrating to have so many rounds of severe weather, it is quite normal for Alabama and northwest Florida to have multiple rounds of active weather in April. We are in the heart of our primary severe weather and tornado season, which generally runs from March 1 to the end of April. Once we get into the month of May, I expect we will catch some type of break and the overall pattern will change somewhat. We have this potential round of severe storms setting up on Thursday and the next round potentially this Sunday, April 26, but hopefully after that we will start to see some “light at the end of the tunnel,” in terms of our active weather pattern settling down.

TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!

APP ALERTS… Now is the time, before we get into this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

NEXT UPDATE… I will have your next video and detailed text discussion posted later today on Facebook. Before that, I’ll have plenty of updates in the RedZone Weather app.

Have a nice Tuesday!