Overview: There is a low-end risk of a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms across the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida on Wednesday, April 29, 2020.
Threat Levels & Locations: The Storm Prediction Center has ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida involved in their Level 1 (out of 5) risk, meaning most storms will likely remain under severe limits. There could be a rogue stronger storm or two capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado.
When: 10AM to 10PM on Wednesday is the 12 hour window when strong to severe storms are most likely to happen. 1PM to 7PM is the 6 hour “core window” when we will have the most available heat content in the atmosphere for storms to use.
Potential Hazards: Gusty winds, hail, and maybe a tornado or two. The tornado risk is low, but it is not entirely zero.
As always, please let me know if you have any questions or have specific decision support needs. Below is the public, long form updated that will be posted in the next hour or so. Have a great Monday evening!
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY… Thunderstorms are ahead for Wednesday, primarily in the daytime hours, across south Alabama and northwest Florida as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The Storm Prediction Center has included ALL of our local area in their Level 1 (out of 5) low-end, marginal severe weather risk valid for Wednesday. This means that a stronger (or severe) storm or two cannot be completely ruled out. For most, this will be a rain event with some embedded thunderstorms. The main concerns in any of the stronger storms will be damaging wind gusts, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. The overall tornado risk remains low, but not entirely zero. This means we need everyone to be “weather aware” on Wednesday in case your particular location goes under a tornado warning or severe thunderstorm warning. Let’s look at your details.
NICE & WARM ON TUESDAY… Before we get to Wednesday, a nice Tuesday is ahead. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-80s across the region. Cloud coverage will increase throughout the day from west to east. Rain will likely hold off until we get to Wednesday morning.
WHAT TO EXPECT WEDNESDAY… For MOST across our region, this will be a good rain event with half an inch to one inch of rainfall being likely in most spots. There will be isolated higher and lower amounts, but most of us will fall into the 0.5”-1” range. There could be isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms, but those will be the anomaly in this situation and probably not widespread or numerous.
WEDNESDAY – SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… 10AM to 10PM will be the twelve hour window when strong to severe storms are most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The core risk timeframe will be from 11AM to 7PM, meaning most (if not all) of the stronger storms should happen before sunset. After sunset, the atmosphere should quickly begin to stabilize across our region as instability values plummet behind the advancing cold front. We should be able to give everyone across our region an “all clear” before 11PM or perhaps much earlier in the evening!
MAIN CONCERNS: GUSTY WINDS & HAIL… The main concerns in the stronger thunderstorms on Wednesday will be gusty winds that could down a few trees across the region. Large hail up to the size of a quarter will also be possible. The overall tornado risk remains low. This means the tornado risk is NOT zero, but it does remain low. One or two tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out in an environment like this. As always, if we happen to have a tornado warning across our local area, we will provide uninterrupted live video coverage to bring you the very latest.
LOTS OF SUNSHINE LATER THIS WEEK; BUILDING HEAT… Thursday through Sunday will feature plenty of sunshine with increasing temperatures. We start on Thursday with highs in the 80s but end up in the MID-90s (!) by Sunday afternoon as a big ridge of high pressure builds into our region, allowing temperatures to soar to what will feel like summer!
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
My next detailed forecast post will be available by 7:15AM tomorrow (Tuesday) morning. Have a great evening!