HRRR model shows line of discrete storms moving into west Alabama at or just after 12AM on Sunday morning… Looks like a very rough Saturday ahead for Louisiana and western MS w/ several strong tornadoes being possible. “Red letter day” possible. pic.twitter.com/oLguWRBPuR
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) April 13, 2019
VERY CONCERNING MODEL TRENDS FOR MS & LA… We’re getting in the first high resolution, short term model data for the severe weather potential setting up this weekend. The trends are very concerning for much of the Deep South. Saturday, April 13 may be a very bad day for parts of northern Louisiana and western Mississippi with strong, potentially violent, tornadoes being possible. You can see in the HRRR animation (above) that several supercell thunderstorms are likely tomorrow afternoon/evening across those areas. I would not be surprised if SPC introduces an exceedingly rare Level 5 (out of 5) for those areas tonight or tomorrow morning.
DISCRETE LINE OF STORMS POSSIBLE LOCALLY… In addition to the concerning trends for our friends in western Mississippi and northern Louisiana, you can see in the animation above that there is a chance of a discrete line of supercell storms moving through early Sunday morning as opposed to a classic QLCS/squall line. I will have to process some more model runs overnight to see if this is a consistent model trend. If so, we will have to adjust the tornado risk even higher for Sunday morning.
BIG TAKEAWAY THIS EVENING… The main headline this evening remains the same: We all need to have multiple ways to get warnings on Saturday night into Sunday morning as a vigorous line of severe storms moves through. This line of storms will likely be producing tornadoes and areas of wind damage. The severe weather risk will happen from 1AM to 1PM on Sunday for south Alabama and Northwest Florida.
NEXT UPDATE ON SATURDAY MORNING… I’ll have the latest information posted by 7:15AM here in the RedZone Weather app and on Facebook. Be sure to check back with me then. Have a good evening!