LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK TUESDAY NIGHT… Showers and thunderstorms will likely move across south Alabama and into northwest Florida in the wee hours of Wednesday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has opted to include much of our region in a Level 1 (out of 5) low-end, marginal risk to potentially see a few stronger storms. You may hear some thunder Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning, and as always, you’ll need a way to recieve urgent weather warnings just in case one of the storms happens to ramp up and cause a tornado. At this point, the chance of an isolated tornado and/or damaging wind gusts in south Alabama and northwest Florida remains VERY LOW. The greater chance of severe weather happens across western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. That’s the summary, here are the specifics…
TIMING: STORMS APPROACH AFTER MIDNIGHT… Cool air colliding with warm air along a cold front is primarily responsible for this weather setup. A cold front will move across Alabama from northwest to southeast late Tuesday into Wednesday. The greatest chance of strong to severe storms will happen over northwest Alabama in places like Hamilton, Florence, Muscle Shoals, Russellville, and Decatur. The line of storms will likely weaken gradually as it moves southeast across Mississippi and Alabama. Around 1-3AM when the line approaches Clarke, Monroe, Choctaw, Washington, and Wilcox counties, it will likely be under severe limits, although in our area, these are the counties that are MOST likely to have a stronger storm. A decaying line of storms will likely move through places like Greenville, Monroeville, Evergreen, Mobile, Bay Minette, the Eastern Shore around 3AM on Wednesday. Don’t be shocked to be awakened by thunder.
LOW-END LEVEL 1 RISK… All parts of Mobile, Baldwin, Clarke, Monroe, Washington, Choctaw, and Wilcox counties are involved in the Level 1, “marginal” risk to see a few stronger storms late Tuesday into early Wednesday. What that means is that severe storms are POSSIBLE, but not LIKELY.
LOWER RISK TO THE EAST… Much of Butler, Conecuh, Escambia [AL], Covington, and Crenshaw counties are involved in the lowest end (Level 0, if you will) risk for general thunderstorms. Severe weather is far less likely in these counties. Same thing in northwest Florida in Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties… Some thunder, yes. Rain, yes. Severe storms, probably not.
COVERAGE… I’ll be monitoring radar trends closely on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Per our usual, if tornado warnings are required for any part of our 12 county primary coverage area (see redzoneweather.com/coverage for clarity on that) we will stream LIVE across our platforms bringing you the very latest. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab here in the RedZone Weather and tap the yellow “Alert Settings” to toggle ON specific alerts that you’d like to receive from me.
Have a wonderful evening! Let me know if you have specific weather questions.