HURRICANE & TROPICAL STORM WARNING
HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR MOBILE & BALDWIN COUNTIES… Tropical Storm Gordon continues to strengthen on this Monday evening. A Hurricane Warning has just been issued from the mouth of the Pearl River in Mississippi eastward to the AL/FL border. This Hurricane Warning includes Mobile and Baldwin counties in south Alabama. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts in the center of Gordon, which is now in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. There is a high chance that Gordon could become a category 1 hurricane before landfall tomorrow (Tuesday) evening. The isolated tornado threat across south Alabama and northwest Florida may be a bit higher than initially expected. Impacts are likely to begin in coastal areas of south Alabama and northwest Florida as early as Tuesday afternoon. Let’s talk details…
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NW FLORIDA… In addition to the Hurricane Warning just issued for coastal Alabama, a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for communities in northwest Florida south of Interstate 10. The tropical storm warning is in effect from the Alabama/Florida border eastward to Destin.
RAIN FROM GORDON TO START TUESDAY… I expect the first outer rain bands to reach parts of our local area (probably northwest Florida first, but that’s not guaranteed) by midday on Tuesday. Rain bands will progressively spread inland and westward throughout the day. There is a high rain chance for everyone across our region (south Alabama and northwest Florida) by 8PM on Tuesday. We’ll need to monitor these outer rain bands as the chance of a brief, isolated tornado will increase throughout the day.
ISOLATED TORNADO RISK… The Storm Prediction Center has opted to include the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 1 (out of 5) “marginal” risk. These likely will NOT be long-track, violent tornadoes, but rather the typical “weaker” tornadoes that accompany the outer rain bands of a tropical storm or hurricane. It really doesn’t matter how strong a tornado is in that if it affects YOU, it’s a big deal. Per our usual policy (outlined extensively here: redzoneweather.com/coverage), we will live stream uninterrupted video coverage for any tornado warning polygon that happens in our 12 county Primary Coverage Area. Don’t be surprised to a see a tornado watch issued on Tuesday. I can just about guarantee that will happen in our area or perhaps just to our west.
FLASH FLOODING & HEAVY RAIN… The guidance on this has not changed. 3 to 5 inches of rain is not out of the question for coastal communities, particularly in Mobile and Baldwin counties. Rain amounts will be substantially LESS for inland communities, as in 1-2” of rain most likely. Please do not drive over any water-covered roadways you encounter! So many deaths occur this way across our nation. “Turn around, don’t drown.”
WIND IMPACTS NEAR COAST… 40-60 mph wind gusts will be possible near the immediate coastline, particularly the Alabama beaches. Wind gusts of 30-50 mph are possible at northwest Florida beaches. Based on the latest data, the forecast continues to call for very little to no high wind-related impacts for inland communities.
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE… A Storm Surge Warning continues for all of the Alabama coastline, where coastal flooding and storm surge will be most likely. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for all of the local northwest Florida beaches. Minor to moderate storm surge is the most likely scenario with some inundation near the coastline.
TIMING OF IMPACTS… The timeframe of potential impacts for south Alabama and northwest Florida starts at 10AM on Tuesday. That is, at this point, the earliest reasonable time that outer rain bands could move in. Impacts will last potentially until Wednesday afternoon around 4PM. The core window for potential impacts locally will happen from 8PM Tuesday to 10AM on Wednesday.
Impacts Possible: 10AM Tuesday to 4PM Wednesday
Impacts MOST Likely: 8PM Tuesday Evening to 10AM Wednesday Morning
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LIVE AT 8PM… We’ll keep you posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app over the next few hours. My next live video will happen at 8PM. Let me know if you have any weather-related questions!