Special Monday evening edition of the RedZone Weather forecast video will be posted shortly here in the RedZone Weather app and on rzweather.com. The text discussion is below…
CATASTROPHIC IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN CAROLINAS FROM FLORENCE… Hurricane Florence is a dangerous category 4 hurricane this evening headed toward the North Carolina and South Carolina coastline. Further strengthening is expected, and Florence will likely be a category 5 hurricane at or just before the potential landfall later this week. We’re also keeping our eye on a tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea that is poised to move into the western Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center says there is a 50% chance of tropical storm formation in the days ahead there. Hurricane Isaac and Hurricane Helene also loom in the open Atlantic. Let’s talk details…
FLORENCE MOVING TOWARD CAROLINAS… It cannot be overstated that potentially catastrophic impacts will be possible along the South Carolina and North Carolina coast where Hurricane Florence ultimately makes landfall. 150+ mph winds, heavy rain (perhaps 1-2 FEET of rain due to a slowing motion of the system), a potentially major flood threat, extreme storm surge, and tornadoes will be possible as Florence moves in. Florence is now a category 4 hurricane with maximum winds at 145 mph. Unfortunately, due to warmer sea surface temperatures and relaxing wind shear high in the atmosphere, Florence is entering an even more favorable environment for further strengthening. The system very well could become a category 5 hurricane tonight or on Tuesday as rapid strengthening continues. Everyone with interests in southern Virginia, the entirety of North Carolina and South Carolina, and western Georgia should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Florence. Folks near Hilton Head Island (SC), Charleston (SC), Myrtle Beach (SC), Wilmington (NC), Jacksonville (NC), and Morehead City (NC) are now in a extreme risk zone where hurricane impacts will be possible. Direct impacts from Hurricane Florence are not expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida.
I am very concerned for our friends in the Carolinas! If you have interests there, please let them know how serious of a situation this is.
TROPICAL WAVE IN CARIBBEAN… An area of clouds and storms is currently situated in the western Caribbean Sea near the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico/Belize). This is a tropical wave at the moment. NHC suggests there is an increasing risk (50% chance at the moment) of tropical storm formation as this system continues slowly moving northwest. While it’s important to forecast all of these systems with multiple models, the ECMWF (Euro) model continues to perform well this hurricane season. The Euro has a tropical storm moving into Texas, perhaps just south of Houston/Galveston, on Thursday into Friday. For now, major models suggest NO direct local impacts in south Alabama or northwest Florida due to this system.
ISAAC MOVING WEST… Hurricane Isaac is located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean about 2-3 days out from the Lesser Antilles. Maximum winds are at 75 mph. Note that out of all the systems we’re currently watching, the forecast confidence with Isaac remains the lowest. This is due to significant model divergence in the 4-5 day forecast timeframe. NHC calls for Isaac to maintain its strength as it approaches the Leeward Islands before weakening to a tropical storm as environmental shear increases over the Caribbean. Beyond that, confidence is too low to speculate about where Isaac will ultimately end up.
HELENE IN EASTERN ATLANTIC… Hurricane Helene is in the far eastern Atlantic closer to Africa than North America. The system will likely continue moving west-northwest over the next 24 hours before making a sharp, right northerly turn in about 3 days. All major global models point to Helene staying away from land over the next 7 days with dissipation happening in about 8-9 days. Obviously local impacts won’t happen if this is the case. Good news!
SCATTERED STORMS LOCALLY… After discussing five tropical systems that will have varying levels of impact in the United States, where does that leave south Alabama and northwest Florida? In a seasonal mid-September weather pattern, of course! Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in each of the next 7 days with high temperatures near 90° and morning lows in the 70s. Severe weather is not expected over the next week, although these pop-up storms can certainly be on the strong side at times with very heavy rain and lots of lightning. You can always check the radar in the Radar tab of the RedZone Weather app.
Let me know if you have any weather-related questions. Have a nice Monday evening!