MORE TROPICAL MISCHIEF
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION LIKELY IN GULF THIS WEEK… In addition to the three other active tropical systems (Florence, Isaac, and Helene), the National Hurricane Center now says there is a 70% chance of tropical storm formation in the western Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. The tropical wave currently moving into the southern Gulf near the Yucatan Peninsula may become a tropical storm by Friday as it moves toward the Texas coast. Despite this, little to no direct impacts are expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida! This is, by far, the most active the tropics have been (in terms of concurrent systems) since RedZone Weather started back in 2015 and I realize that this all may be confusing for some. Let’s talk about details…
INVEST 95L MOVING TOWARD TEXAS… The tropical wave currently bringing heavy rain to parts of the Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula is branded as INVEST 95L, meaning it’s an “investigation” zone that may develop into a tropical storm over the next few days. While there are plenty of specifics that remain to be seen, let me stress that at the moment NO local impacts are expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida. The latest model guidance supports a tropical storm moving into the Texas coast later this week, although everyone from Baton Rouge and Grand Isle, Louisiana southward to northern Mexico should closely monitor this system. Note that this will be happening concurrently with the likely landfall of a potentially catastrophic Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas.
HURRICANE WATCH… A Hurricane Watch is now in effect from Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to the North Carolina-Virginia border. Hurricane Florence has maximum sustained winds of 130 mph this afternoon and further strengthening is expected over the next 48 hours. Regardless of if Florence is a category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane at landfall, impacts across the eastern parts of North Carolina and South Carolina could be extreme. Some spots may pick up 1 to 2 FEET of rain that could set up a substantial flood threat. That’s because the system will drastically slow down once it makes landfall. That comes in addition to the major storm surge threat, significant threat of tornadoes, and also high straight line winds (perhaps in excess of 150 mph). Folks in the Carolinas should HEED ALL EVACUATION ORDERS! This storm means business and extensive impacts are expected.
ISAAC A TROPICAL STORM… Isaac remains a strong tropical storm with max. winds at 70 mph this afternoon. The system will likely become a hurricane as it moves toward the Lesser Antilles. Hurricane Watches are up for several of the islands in the Leeward Islands/Antilles. Once Isaac crosses the islands into the Caribbean Sea, there is a signficant disagreement about when and where Isaac will end up. We’ll keep you posted.
HELENE FAR AWAY… There is no threat from Hurricane Helene in the far eastern Atlantic right now. The system will move north over the open waters of the Atlantic in the days ahead.
SCATTERED STORMS AROUND… The numerous showers and thunderstorms that are popping up this afternoon across south Alabama and northwest Florida are bringing heavy rain and lightning to spots across our region. Severe weather is not expected today or over the next few days. You can always check the radar here in the RedZone Weather app in the Radar tab (below).
I’ll have a video update this evening. See you then!