HURRICANE WARNING FOR PARTS OF NORTH & SOUTH CAROLINA…
ISAAC LOOMS IN ATLANTIC; MOVING WEST…
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY IN GULF… Many details to talk about with four tropical systems this evening. We’re going to look at this in the order of urgency this evening. It is critical for me to note that as of Tuesday evening, tropical/hurricane impacts are not expected in the next 5 days in south Alabama or northwest Florida. For now, it seems like Tropical Storm Isaac is the one we’ll need to watch carefully in the days ahead as Gulf Coast impacts still cannot be ruled out. MANY other places, however, are “under the gun” from potentially extreme tropical trouble. We’ll start by looking at Hurricane Florence, which is on the cusp of becoming a category 5 hurricane that has the potential to cause devastating, potentially catastrophic impacts in portions of North Carolina and South Carolina. There’s a special message for folks who may be IN the Carolinas near the coastline this evening: HEED THE WARNINGS! Don’t play with this thing! This will be a category 4 or 5 major hurricane that unfortunately can cause loss of life and extensive loss of property. We’ll also look at the tropical wave in the southern Gulf of Mexico that has a high chance of becoming a tropical storm in the days ahead as it likely approaches Texas. As if we didn’t have enough to discuss this evening, we’re also tracking Hurricane Helene and another disturbance in the north Atlantic that both will likely stay well away from the continental U.S. Please read the entirety of this 1,500+ word post as many questions will be answered. Because we’ve got so much going on, you’ll see headers below for each system. Let’s go!
HURRICANE FLORENCE…
DANGEROUS FLORENCE HEADED FOR THE CAROLINAS… Maximum winds are up to 140 mph and Florence is a dangerous category 4 hurricane. Further intensification is in the forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center and Florence may reach cat. 5 intensity by Wednesday evening. Don’t get so caught up in the category that you forget that this is a potentially catastrophic hurricane REGARDLESS of how strong it is. What will the impacts be? Outlined below.
AN IMPORTANT CALL TO ACTION FOR COASTAL CAROLINAS… If Florence makes landfall or approaches coastal sections of NC/SC as a category 4 or 5 hurricane as expected, there will some coastal communities that are devastated. Some areas will likely be uninhabitable for weeks, if the scenario plays out as expected. I don’t say this to scare anyone at all. I’m not in the fear business and I don’t want to be, ever. I believe that knowledge is powerful and I say these two statements factually and directly as I hope it will empower people to LEAVE if you’re given an evacuation order. The fact is: If you’re involved in a Hurricane Warning in a coastal community in North Carolina or South Carolina, your life could potentially be in danger if you choose to stay near the immediate coastline. GET OUT if you’re given an evacuation order. Property can be replaced. YOU can’t!
HURRICANE WARNING… A Hurricane Warning has been issued from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. This includes places like Myrtle Beach (SC), Wilmington (NC), Jacksonville (NC), Cape Fear, and Cape Hatteras.
MAJOR FLOODING THREAT – NC/VA… The flood threat that will likely set up across eastern North Carolina and Virginia will be extreme. Some spots are likely to pick up 20-30” of rain as the core of Hurricane Florence will slow down drastically shortly after landfall. We want hurricanes to move, and move quickly. This is unfortunately not how Florence will likely go down. The forward speed of the system will drastically decrease once landfall happens, causing rain amounts to spike quickly with an extreme flood threat. The greatest rain amounts will almost certainly happen along and east of the center of circulation.
STORM SURGE WARNING… A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. Extreme storm surge inundation will be possible in these areas. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
HIGH WINDS NEAR THE COAST… Winds will be greatest near coastal areas where Florence makes landfall. Again, the highest danger zone is within 10 miles of the immediate coast. There absolutely still will be dangers inland, but in terms of storm surge and high winds, the *greatest* danger is near the coast.
ISOLATED TORNADOES LIKELY… There will inevitably be a few tornadoes involved with Hurricane Florence, especially on the right front side of the hurricane. This means that, most likely, eastern areas of North Carolina will have the highest tornado risk as Florence approaches and even after landfall. Know what to do and where to go if you have a tornado warning. We recommend getting on the lowest floor of a site-built structure, away from windows and doors when a tornado warning is in effect for your location.
HAVE A GOOD INFO SOURCE… RedZone Weather is designed for Alabama and northwest Florida. If you’re in North Carolina or South Carolina, find a good LOCAL source of information. National media outlets are often unable to provide data and insight for specific, smaller communities. One guy I recommend vehemently for folks in/near Charlotte, Brad Panovich. Let him be your “go to” guy if you’re in the western half of the Carolinas.
INVEST 95L/TROPICAL WAVE…
70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT… The National Hurricane Center continues to suggest that there is a 70% chance of a tropical depression forming in the western Gulf of Mexico over the next 3 days. Ship reports indicate that this system is producing strong gusty winds over the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Thursday night while the disturbance moves across the western Gulf of Mexico.
LOCAL IMPACTS NOT EXPECTED… All of the major global models (and all model data I have seen at this point) suggest that this tropical wave, regardless of formal development, will move northwestward toward Texas. Obviously changes are possible, so we’ll need to watch this system carefully over the next few days. Folks along the western Louisiana coast, the Texas coast, and northern Mexico coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC…
ISAAC MOVING WEST… Maximum winds near the center of Tropical Storm Isaac are pegged at 70 mph. Intensity fluctuations are expected over the next few days and Isaac will likely be a strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Lesser Antilles over the next day or so. Once Isaac reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea, there is a considerable amount of uncertainty as to what will happen. Some models ramp the system up to a major hurricane, while other models completely lose Isaac when dissipation happens. As far as the future track, interests in Puerto Rico, Haiti/DR, Cuba, and Jamaica should closely follow the progress of Isaac. Beyond the 5 day forecast, I’m not going to speculate as there are too many variables and uncertainties at this time. There is still a chance that Isaac could move into the Gulf of Mexico in about a week, but there ARE other scenarios that could happen as well. The best I can tell ya… We will keep you posted!
HURRICANE WATCHES UP FOR ANTILLES… Because of the approach of Isaac, Hurricane Watches are in effect for Guadeloupe, Martinique, and Dominica. These are likely to be changed to a Hurricane Warning overnight. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Antigua, Montserrat, and St. Kitts & Nevis.
HURRICANE HELENE…
HELENE TO STAY AWAY… Finally, one system that we won’t have to worry about! Hurricane Helene has maximum winds of 105 mph in the far eastern Atlantic. The system is closer to Africa than it is to North America. The official NHC forecast calls for Helene to move north and ultimately accelerate northeast in the days ahead. Should have no direct U.S. impacts from Helene.
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA…
WARNINGS FOR HAWAII… Over on the Pacific side of things, we note that all of the Hawaiian Islands are under a Tropical Storm Warning this evening as Tropical Storm Olivia approaches from the northeast. Obviously, no local impacts in the continental U.S. are expected, but this goes to show just how active the tropics are right now across the world.
SEASONAL WEATHER LOCALLY… The story remains the same in south Alabama and northwest Florida for the rest of this week into the weekend in that scattered pop-up thunderstorms are expected each day. High temperatures will be in the 90s with morning lows in the 70s. Storms will produce heavy rain and quite a bit of thunder and lightning. The good news is severe weather is not expected in our local area over the next 7 days.
APP… It’s been a busy few weeks here in the RedZone Weather app. We encourage everyone in south Alabama and northwest Florida to take a look at the “Alerts” tab and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive straight from me.
EVENING VIDEO SCHEDULE CONTINUES… Long-time RedZone Weather viewers/readers know that I usually post a morning video around 7:15AM each day. We’re operating a bit differently this week with videos being posted in the 7PM hour and a morning graphic/update around 7:15AM. We’ll get back to the normal schedule soon. Thanks for watching and supporting RedZone Weather! Let me know if you have questions. Have a nice evening!