HEAT ADVISORY LOCALLY; FLORENCE CAUSING FLOODING… It’s hot, it’s humid, and it’s dry on this Sunday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. We’re monitoring Tropical Depression Florence a few hundred miles to our northwest. Florence continues to cause catastrophic and rapid flooding issues across much of South Carolina and North Carolina. Parts of Interstate 40 and Interstate 95 are totally shut down this afternoon due to the magnitude of the flooding. A hot few days are ahead with a few afternoon storms likely each day. Let’s talk forecast details…
HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES… If you’re in Escambia [AL], Baldwin, Mobile, Escambia [FL], Santa Rosa, or Okaloosa counties, you are under a Heat Advisory until 6PM this evening. Temperatures have climbed into the mid- to upper-90s across these areas. This is not to say it’s not HOT in our inland counties, as it certainly IS but there are specific qualifiers in place for what constitutes a heat advisory. I wouldn’t be shocked if the entire area goes under a Heat Advisory valid for Monday as temperatures will again be in the mid-90s with heat index values in excess of 105°.
FLORENCE CAUSING SEVERE ISSUES… Many water rescues have happened this morning across portions of North Carolina and South Carolina as Tropical Depression Florence continues moving west. While high winds are no longer an issue, flash flooding and heavy rain definitely ARE major issues this afternoon. We note a rare Flash Flood Emergency continues for areas near and just southeast of the Charlotte, NC metro area. I talked to a friend traveling home (or attempting to) in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina who says the flooding is unlike anything he has ever witnessed living in that area. The remnants of Florence will begin to accelerate northward this week, allowing the waterlogged Carolinas to finally begin drying out. Tornado Watches also continue near the Carolina coast as isolated, brief tornadoes continue to pop up.
ISAAC OFF THE BOARD, FOR NOW… Tropical Storm Isaac degenerated into a remnant low pressure area on Saturday. The remnants of Isaac are approaching Jamaica in the Caribbean Sea from the east. The National Hurricane Center says there is a 20% chance that Isaac might redevelop in the days ahead as the system moves northwest. Early model indications point to a system that might cross the Yucatan Peninsula before moving toward northern Mexico or Texas. Systems like this that are weak are exceptionally difficult to forecast, thus we must continue to diligently monitor the system. I’ll keep you posted, but as of now, definitely nothing to stress about or lose sleep over.
HELENE & JOYCE MAKING THEIR EXIT… Tropical Storm Helene is no more. The last advisory has just been issued as Helene is now a post-tropical cyclone moving toward the United Kingdom. Joyce is now a small tropical depression in the open waters of the eastern Atlantic. Further weakening is expected and Joyce will likely be off the board by Tuesday at the latest. Both of these systems will not be an issue for North America.
BIG DUST PLUME… Perhaps the best weather news I’ve had in the last 3 weeks! Another large plume of African dust from the Saharan Desert is being observed across the eastern Atlantic Ocean. This Saharan Air Layer (SAL) generally causes tropical waves to remain weak and not develop into tropical cyclones. The ECMWF (Euro) ensemble members also point to very little tropical activity developing over the next few weeks. This is great news as we’ve had a VERY active first half of September.
FEW SHOWERS & STORMS NEAR I-10… We’re watching a few showers and thunderstorms this evening near Pensacola, Elsanor, and Spanish Fort. These storms are isolated in nature, and widespread rain is not expected across the area.
HOT DAYS AHEAD… The 7 Day Forecast across south Alabama and northwest Florida will remain quite consistent in that we’ll have high temperatures in the 90s with morning lows in the 70s this week. Scattered thunderstorms are possible in each of the next 5-7 days, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. No severe weather is expected.
My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Monday. Let me know if you have any weather-related questions. Have a nice Sunday evening!