COOLER AIR LIKELY ON THE WAY
HIGH CHANCE COOLER AIR IS ON THE WAY… The number one question I’ve had as of late is, “When will we cool off?” Fortunately, consistent model guidance says, “Very soon!” The attached screen grab is the Global Forecast System (GFS) model of temperatures valid at 7AM on Sunday, September 30. There is an increasing chance that we’ll have several days with high temperatures in the low-80s with morning lows in the 50s and 60s across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Some spots across the northern half of Alabama may dip into the 40s. Don’t take the temperatures at face value, as this is RAW model data that can and will change. The idea has been consistent, however, for cooler temperatures to be in place around October 1.
PATTERN CHANGE… Right now, we have a big ridge of high pressure in place across much of the eastern United States. This allows high temperatures to surge into the 90s with the few thunderstorms we’re having in the afternoon hours. The reverse of this pattern will be in place as October begins – a trough will be in place allowing cool, dry air to stream southward from Canada. The fall months generally feature several pattern changes like this, and this is probably the first of many.
FIRST DAY OF FALL… Saturday, September 22 marks the first day of astronomical autumn/fall. The thermometer will likely hit the 90s, however, on Saturday afternoon across the region. The cooler air will likely arrive to south Alabama and northwest Florida as we get toward Saturday, September 29.
STORMS POSSIBLE… Obviously, we’ll have to see if severe weather will be a concern as is often the case when we have a strong cold front moving by. No way to know just yet if a severe weather/tornado threat will be present. I’ll keep you posted.