50% CHANCE TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN GULF THIS WEEKEND… There is growing concern this evening that we’ll be dealing with a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico next week. The National Hurricane Center says in their 8PM EDT update that there is now a 50 percent chance that the area of low pressure currently in the western Caribbean Sea will strengthen into Tropical Storm Michael over the next few days. Unfortunately, it’s still too early to know exactly when and where this system will end up, although model data has consistently suggested today that impacts along the northern Gulf Coast will be possible next week.
WHAT WE KNOW…
CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL IDEA… There is now widespread model agreement that “something” will be happening in the Gulf of Mexico in the middle of next week, probably in the form of a tropical storm or perhaps a hurricane. There is also good agreement that regardless of the classification of the system, deep Gulf moisture has a significant chance of moving north into the Deep South by the end of the week.
WATER TEMPS & SHEAR… Gulf of Mexico water temperatures remain very warm (low- to mid-80s) across the Gulf of Mexico, certainly supportive of tropical development. This is only one part of the equation, however. Atmospheric shear, although plentiful right now across much of the Caribbean Sea, will relax as we go into the weekend. This will likely allow this area of low pressure to form and potentially strengthen considerably in the early part of next week.
WHAT WE DON’T KNOW YET…
WILL IT DEVELOP?… While most global models show development (including, but not limited to, the ECMWF/Euro, CMC, NAVGEM, etc.) we note that the operational American-based GFS model remains an outlier in suggesting the system will not develop into a classified tropical storm. This, unfortunately, is an outlier at this point. Odds support a developing tropical storm.
POTENTIAL INTENSITY… There’s no way to know for sure just how weak or strong this system will be as it moves northwest over the Caribbean and southern Gulf over the next few days. Most models are calling for a moderate to strong tropical storm, but those are early indications subject to significant change in the days ahead.
WHERE IT WILL GO… While the general idea has certainly been consistent in the potential for northern Gulf Coast impacts, this event is still a week out. Significant track adjustments are expected at this stage. Everyone in coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and northwest Florida should closely monitor the progress of this system.
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS… It’s still too early to know whether local impacts will be possible in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Many model scenarios this evening suggest that local impacts COULD be possible late next week, although again let me stress, it’s very early in this process. The big takeaway is we need to be prepared and closely monitor this system! I’ll bring you updates here on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app.
FRIENDLY REMINDERS…
APP ALERTS… I’ll have plenty of updates in the days ahead in the RedZone Weather app and on rzweather.com. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner of RZWeather app) and then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive straight from me.
NEXT VIDEO… My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM here on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app. We’ll have a fresh forecast discussion and a look at the Friday Night Lights forecast. See you then! Let me know if you have any weather-related questions or concerns.