TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO FORM THIS WEEKEND… There is now a 50-60% chance that a tropical storm will form in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend or early next week. Before we get there, a nice, hot weekend is upcoming for south Alabama and northwest Florida. High school football will be dry this evening across the region. Let’s talk forecast details…
WARM & DRY FOR FOOTBALL TONIGHT… This should be the driest Friday so far during this high school football season. Game time temps will start near the 80 degree mark around 7PM. We fall into the mid-70s by the end of the game. Rain issues are not expected.
Let’s shift gears and discuss the tropics. The ideas and thoughts below have NOT changed since last evening and remain completely accurate.
WHAT WE KNOW…
CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL IDEA… There is now widespread model agreement that “something” will be happening in the Gulf of Mexico in the middle of next week, probably in the form of a tropical storm or perhaps a hurricane. There is also good agreement that regardless of the classification of the system, deep Gulf moisture has a significant chance of moving north into the Deep South by the end of the week.
WATER TEMPS & SHEAR… Gulf of Mexico water temperatures remain very warm (low- to mid-80s) across the Gulf of Mexico, certainly supportive of tropical development. This is only one part of the equation, however. Atmospheric shear, although plentiful right now across much of the Caribbean Sea, will relax as we go into the weekend. This will likely allow this area of low pressure to form and potentially strengthen considerably in the early part of next week.
WHAT WE DON’T KNOW YET…
WILL IT DEVELOP?… While most global models show development (including, but not limited to, the ECMWF/Euro, CMC, NAVGEM, etc.) we note that the operational American-based GFS model remains an outlier in suggesting the system will not develop into a classified tropical storm. This, unfortunately, is an outlier at this point. Odds support a developing tropical storm.
POTENTIAL INTENSITY… There’s no way to know for sure just how weak or strong this system will be as it moves northwest over the Caribbean and southern Gulf over the next few days. Most models are calling for a moderate to strong tropical storm, but those are early indications subject to significant change in the days ahead.
WHERE IT WILL GO… While the general idea has certainly been consistent in the potential for northern Gulf Coast impacts, this event is still a week out. Significant track adjustments are expected at this stage. Everyone in coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and northwest Florida should closely monitor the progress of this system.
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS… It’s still too early to know whether local impacts will be possible in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Many model scenarios this evening suggest that local impacts COULD be possible late next week, although again let me stress, it’s very early in this process. The big takeaway is we need to be prepared and closely monitor this system! I’ll bring you updates on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app.
APP ALERTS… I’ll have plenty of updates in the days ahead in the RedZone Weather app. Once you have our free app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive straight from me.
Have a great Friday!