GROWING CHANCE OF LOCAL IMPACTS DUE TO TROPICAL STORM… There is now a growing chance, based on continued model guidance, that local impacts will happen in portions of south Alabama and northwest Florida as what will likely be Tropical Storm Michael approaches from the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days. Unfortunately, there is still so much we do not know yet. Much of the uncertainty is because weather models do not perform well until the low-level circulation has actually formed. Regardless, models have been consistent in suggesting a northern Gulf Coast landfall at some point between Wednesday and Friday. It’s still too early to know just how weak or how strong the system will be as it approaches our area. Let’s talk details…
90% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION… The National Hurricane Center says there is very high (90%) chance that the area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean Sea will become a tropical storm in the next 72 hours.
CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING NOW… There is some evidence that a broad low-level circulation may be developing east of the Yucatan Peninsula (east of Belize and Mexico) this afternoon. Convection appears to be increasing just to the east of this elongated circulation. This is based on the infrared satellite loop and the recent ASCAT satellite pass depicting this. I wouldn’t be shocked to see some type of designation by the National Hurricane Center in the hours ahead if this circulation tightens up a bit.
INTENSITY TO BE DETERMINED… At bare minimum, we’re talking increased rain chances for south Alabama and northwest Florida. On the other end of the spectrum, borderline major hurricane impacts featuring high winds, tornadoes, storm surge, and flash flooding. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle of those two extreme scenarios. We note that much of the model guidance has suggested a tropical storm moving north with maximum winds somewhere in the 50-70 mph range. The system may be stronger or weaker than that, but that’s the consensus range as of now.
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS… RedZone Weather is designed for folks in south Alabama and northwest Florida (see more here: redzoneweather.com/coverage) Impacts for specific areas will become more clear in the days ahead as we figure out the exact forecast track of this system. I’ve had several questions about the upcoming National Shrimp Festival, weekend plans for next weekend, etc. Unfortunately, it is still just too early to give guidance/recommendations as we don’t have a narrowed landfall location area or any confidence with the intensity forecast. Details should begin to become more clear on Monday.
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DESIGNATION… There is a chance that the National Hurricane Center may use the “potential tropical cyclone” designation with this system in the next 24-48 hours as it moves north. Don’t let this confuse you (as it’s honestly a confusing term even for some meteorologists!). Let “potential tropical cyclone” mean “Developing Tropical Storm” in your mind. That’s what I do and what I suggest everyone does in this situation. NHC created the term as a blanket for issuing tropical storm warnings. Those may be required for parts of the Yucatan Peninsula in the coming hours.
REVIEW EVACUATION PLANS… If you’re near the coast or live south of Interstate 10, NOW is the time to review your potential hurricane evacuation route. There’s a good chance we won’t have massive evacuations, but there’s at least some chance that some evacuations will be required depending on the future track of what will be Tropical Storm or Hurricane Michael. Know where you’ll go and where you’ll stay IF an evacuation order is issued for your specific area.
HAVE A KIT READY… If you haven’t already got a “hurricane prep kit,” I would strongly suggest you have one ready. Not just now, but throughout hurricane season. What should be in a prep kit? See this: https://www.ready.gov/build-a-kit
APP ALERTS… Now is the time to download our free RedZone Weather app and set up the customized alerts. I have a sneaking suspicion I’ll be sending out a plethora of alerts in the days ahead. Turn ON Low-Level Alerts if you like a LOT of information. Turn ON Medium-Level Alerts if you just want the important stuff. You can also turn on your specific local county (if you’re in our Primary Coverage Area in south Alabama or northwest Florida) to get customized alerts for your area. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download.
I’ll have updates throughout the evening in the RedZone Weather app. Enjoy your Saturday!