TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO FORM THIS WEEK IN GULF… There is a high (80-90%) chance that a tropical storm will form in the southern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. Depending largely on the specific track, local impacts will be possible across south Alabama and northwest Florida. We don’t know the magnitude of those potential impacts yet as the system has yet to officially form. Folks in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and northwest Florida should all closely monitor this system as it develops as impacts are most likely going to occur in at least some of those areas. Some of the info below is review from last evening. Let’s look at details…
SPECIAL SATURDAY VIDEO… Normally I don’t produce a Saturday edition of the RedZone Weather forecast video. This same weekend last year was the last time we had a Saturday video — that being because of Hurricane Nate that happened in October 2017. This year we’re staring down what will likely be Tropical Storm Michael. The video will be available shortly in the RedZone Weather app. It’s debuting on Facebook right now.
NICE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY… Plenty of sunshine is expected today and on Sunday. High temperatures will be around 90 in most spots. No rain issues are expected.
LOW PRESSURE IN CARIBBEAN… An area of low pressure currently situated in the western Caribbean Sea north of Honduras and east of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is expected to move north into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Showers and storms remain disorganized as of now, as high winds in the upper-levels of the atmosphere are ripping the system apart. This shear is what we would ideally like to see continue, although the system will move north into a more favorable environment (with less shear) in the next 72 hours.
LANDFALL LIKELY ALONG NORTHERN GULF COAST… While it is still impossible to say with any type of certainty exactly where the center of this tropical system will make landfall, there is a HIGH chance that the landfall point will be along the northern Gulf Coast. Landfall is most likely to happen somewhere between Cameron, Louisiana eastward to Cedar Key, Florida. This means folks in northwest Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana need to closely monitor the progress of this developing system.
DON’T FOCUS ON MODEL RUNS… Models will continue to have quite a bit of uncertainty with this system until the low-level circulation forms. It is typical for weather models to not have a good grip of specifics until we get a consolidated low pressure area. Take one-by-one model runs with a proverbial grain of salt. I’ve had many questions about the Euro and specific model runs, but it’s important to not look at specific runs and instead focus on the TRENDS. The trends point to a northern Gulf Coast landfall, most likely as a strong tropical storm, as of now.
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE… There’s at least some chance that the National Hurricane Center will start issuing advisories soon on this system as a “Potential Tropical Cyclone,” as tropical storm warnings may be required for part of the Yucatan Peninsula in the next day or two. Don’t let this nomenclature confuse you. A “Potential Tropical Cyclone” is basically a developing tropical storm without being called that. Anytime you see “Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC),” just replace the verbiage with “Developing Tropical Storm.”
MIDWEEK IMPACTS MOST LIKELY… The timeline on this system has considerable uncertainty. Local impacts could begin as early as Tuesday night OR begin as late as Friday. We will be able to nail down a better timeframe in the days ahead as the system continues to develop. I would suggest at this point the GREATEST probability of local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida is on Wednesday, October 10, but again, we have to take that with a grain of salt. Still a lot to sort out in the timeline part of this storm…
EAST BAD, WEST BETTER… Just like many tropical systems, a lot will be determined by what side of the storm our local area is on. If most of us are on the “better” western flank of the system, local impacts could be very low and/or negligible. If we’re on the eastern flank of the system, potentially significant impacts (including the potential for many tornadoes) would be possible.
HAVE A KIT READY… If you haven’t already got a “hurricane prep kit,” I would strongly suggest you have one ready. Not just now, but throughout hurricane season. What should be in a prep kit? See this: https://www.ready.gov/build-a-kit
DON’T FORGET APP ALERTS… Now is the time to download our free RedZone Weather app and set up the customized alerts. I have a sneaking suspicion I’ll be sending out a plethora of alerts in the days ahead. Turn ON Low-Level Alerts if you like a LOT of information. Turn ON Medium-Level Alerts if you just want the important stuff. You can also turn on your specific local county (if you’re in our Primary Coverage Area in south Alabama or northwest Florida) to get customized alerts for your area. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download.
I’ll have updates throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. Enjoy your Saturday!