TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL TO MOVE INTO GULF SOON… Tropical Storm Michael is currently strengthening and not moving much in the western Caribbean Sea. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center now calls for Michael to ramp up to hurricane status late Tuesday or early Wednesday. There is growing chance that the system will make a northwest Florida landfall as a hurricane on Wednesday. Local impacts from Michael will be possible midweek as the system moves north and ultimately northeast near or just to the southeast of our local area. The specific landfall point will have big ramifications as to the magnitude of impacts that south Alabama and northwest Florida has as Michael moves by. Don’t be surprised if a Hurricane Watch or Tropical Storm Watch is issued for parts of our local area and areas just to our southeast (Wiregrass/Florida Panhandle) in the next 24 hours. Let’s talk details…
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR SW AL & NW FL… Below is a specific rundown of potential impacts for south Alabama and northwest Florida as defined in our primary coverage area (redzoneweather.com/coverage). There are other impact paragraphs below for other areas.
TIMELINE OF IMPACTS… We’ll need to watch the leading feeder bands that approach the northwest Florida and Alabama coastline Tuesday evening. I would not be surprised if the first rain/feeder bands reach the coastline late Tuesday evening or very early in the morning on Wednesday. Impacts will be most likely during the daytime hours of Wednesday from 6AM to 6PM. That is the core 12 hour window that is most likely to feature impacts in our local area. Obviously this can change, but that’s the latest thinking based on the NHC forecast and model data.
HIGH WIND POTENTIAL… The most dangerous area of strong winds will almost certainly happen near and east of the center of circulation. As of this moment, the official NHC forecast “cone of uncertainty” shows that there is a significant chance the core of Michael could pass near or just to the southeast of our local area. This would put vast majority of the local area on the “better” western side of the system. IF this scenario pans out, inland areas of southwest Alabama would have very little in the way of wind impacts. Gusty winds (40-60mph) would still be possible near the immediate coastline. I caution, however, that the cone of uncertainty extends from near Dauphin Island, AL eastward to Cedar Key, FL. That is still a very wide swath of coastline where the center of circulation may make landfall. If the track shifts farther west in future advisories, we will have to significantly adjust the high wind potential impacts for our local area.
TORNADO POTENTIAL… The right, front quadrant of Tropical Storm Michael will be the most likely area for tornadoes to happen. IF current forecast trends verify, much of our local area would be on the WEST side of the system, meaning the tornado risk would be much, much lower for us. This would mean an enhanced risk of tornadoes for areas along and east of the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Dothan, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola).
HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL… Regardless of how strong Michael becomes OR where the center makes landfall, heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding will be a concern across the eastern half of our local area. The greatest risk of flash flooding would almost certainly be in Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, and Covington counties IF current forecast trends verify. 3-4” of rain will be possible in these counties with lesser rain amounts to the north and east. 5-6” of rain is not out of the question for areas near/east the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Dothan, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola).
STORM SURGE POTENTIAL… The common theme continues in the storm surge category in that significant storm surge will be possible along and east of the center of circulation. There could be some storm surge in northwest Florida to the west of the center as well, but I do think because of the offshore flow, that will help to mitigate some of the storm surge issues on the western flank of the storm.
FREE REDZONE WEATHER APP… Now is the time to download our free RedZone Weather app and set up the customized alerts. If you’re reading this in the app, please tell a friend or family member to download our free app. I have a sneaking suspicion I’ll be sending out a plethora of alerts in the days ahead. Turn ON Low-Level Alerts if you like a LOT of information. Turn ON Medium-Level Alerts if you just want the important stuff. You can also turn on your specific local county (if you’re in our Primary Coverage Area in south Alabama or northwest Florida) to get customized alerts for your area. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download.
I’ll have updates throughout the evening in the RedZone Weather app. Let me know if you have any questions and let us know where you’re watching from! Enjoy your Sunday evening.