PTC14/MICHAEL TO MOVE TOWARD LOCAL AREA THIS WEEK… Potential Tropical Cyclone #14, or what will be called Tropical Storm Michael once a low-level circulation forms, is drifting north in the Caribbean Sea. The system is slated to move northward across the Gulf of Mexico on Monday into Tuesday before a potential northern Gulf Coast landfall on Wednesday into Thursday. At this point, a landfall location IN our local area or just to our east is the most likely solution. There is still ample uncertainty regarding many aspects of this system. Let’s discuss what we know…
SYSTEM STILL DEVELOPING… Convection has been intermittently bursting around the developing area of low pressure overnight and on Saturday evening. Don’t be surprised if a low-level center of circulation develops in the next few hours. This will be when the system officially becomes a tropical depression or tropical storm. Most models suggest that the center of the area of low pressure will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico late tonight or early on Monday.
FOCUS ON THE CONE, NOT THE EXACT LINE… The “cone of uncertainty,” (also called the projected path) for PTC14/Michael extends from Pascagoula/Biloxi, Mississippi eastward to Cedar Key, Florida. This means that the landfall point could be anywhere in that zone. It is true that the center line forecast currently moves onshore near or just east of Destin, Florida, but that DOES NOT necessarily mean that landfall WILL occur there. At the moment, that’s simply the best estimate. There will be potentially notable shifts of the cone in the hours ahead. The reason this is important? Good question…
LANDFALL POINT IMPORTANT IN THIS CASE… Let’s hypothetically say that the center of Tropical Storm/Hurricane Michael makes landfall in Walton County, Florida (just east of Destin). That would mean that Covington, Okaloosa, Walton counties and the Wiregrass region of southeast Alabama would potentially have notable impacts from the system. However, this scenario also would put MUCH of our local area on the “better” western side of the center of circulation. The tornado threat is generally MUCH lower on the west side. The converse of this situation is also true. If the landfall point is near/to our west, much of our area would be on the “worse” eastern side of the center. This would mean an enhanced tornado risk along with other impacts.
A lot will depend on the landfall point and we just don’t know exactly where that will happen yet. I’ll have a more thorough look at potential impacts later today.
REVIEW EVACUATION PLANS… If you’re near the coast or live south of Interstate 10, NOW is the time to review your potential hurricane evacuation route. There’s a good chance we won’t have massive evacuations, but there’s at least some chance that some evacuations will be required depending on the future track of what will be Tropical Storm or Hurricane Michael. Know where you’ll go and where you’ll stay IF an evacuation order is issued for your specific area.
HAVE A KIT READY… If you haven’t already got a “hurricane prep kit,” I would strongly suggest you have one ready. Not just now, but throughout hurricane season. What should be in a prep kit? See this: https://www.ready.gov/build-a-kit
APP ALERTS… Now is the time to download our free RedZone Weather app and set up the customized alerts. Lots of alerts today! Turn ON Low-Level Alerts if you like a LOT of information. Turn ON Medium-Level Alerts if you just want the important stuff. You can also turn on your specific local county (if you’re in our Primary Coverage Area in south Alabama or northwest Florida) to get customized alerts for your area. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download.
I’ll have updates throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app.
SPECIAL SUNDAY MORNING VIDEO… Please understand that seeing a video on a Sunday morning is not part of our normal production schedule. Our regular schedule features a Sunday evening video and a video every weekday morning. Because there could be a potential tropical storm/hurricane strike on our local area in the next few days, there is a need for this video update this morning. The video will be posted
Have a great Sunday!