T.S. MICHAEL STRENGTHENING
MICHAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN… Tropical Storm Michael is gaining strength quickly in the northwestern part of the Caribbean Sea this evening. Maximum sustained winds are now at 60mph. I would not be surprised if Michael becomes a hurricane on Monday as it continues to slowly move north. The forward rate of speed will increase in the hours ahead and Michael will be moving over the very warm (86-87°) waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico.
A NOTE ABOUT INTENSITY GUIDANCE… I will be mentioning this publicly this evening, but I won’t be using the language I’m using here. Because RZW Exec is a private program designed for community leaders, I’m going to be blunt in my assessment with you this evening: There is a small, but growing (25%) chance that Michael rapidly strengthens over the next 48 hours. Some of the intensity guidance off of the major global models (ECMWF/Euro, GFS, etc.) suggests a category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall. These are definitely outliers in the data as of now, but very concerning nonetheless. MOST of the intensity guidance peaks as a category 2 hurricane at landfall, which is reflected in the latest NHC forecast. I expect the official NHC intensity forecast to be adjusted slightly higher in the next 12-24 hours to properly account for this possibility.
HOPEFULLY CURRENT FORECAST WILL VERIFY… If the current projected path (depicted in the graphic above) verifies, (and all current model data suggests that it will) that would be EXCELLENT news for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Unfortunately, this would be a potentially damaging scenario for much of the Florida Panhandle near Panama City, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola, Blountstown, and Marianna. There could be extensive damage in those areas as high (100+ mph potentially) winds happen when Michael moves by. The good news is ALL of our local area would be on the “better” western flank of the system. This means the winds would be out of the north for us, creating an offshore flow at the coastline. Heavy rain would be a concern across parts of Okaloosa, Walton, and Covington counties in addition to the Florida Panhandle and the Wiregrass, but southwest Alabama and much of northwest Florida would be spared if the current forecast verifies.
TIMELINE OF IMPACTS… We’ll need to watch the leading feeder bands that approach the northwest Florida late Tuesday evening. I would not be surprised if the first rain/feeder bands reach the coastline late Tuesday evening or very early in the morning on Wednesday. Okaloosa County is the only county in our primary coverage area that will have any type of significant impacts if the current forecast verifies. Impacts will be most likely during the daytime hours of Wednesday from 6AM to 6PM. That is the core 12 hour window that is most likely to feature impacts in Okaloosa County. Obviously this can change, but that’s the latest thinking based on the NHC forecast and model data.
HIGH WIND POTENTIAL… The most dangerous area of strong winds will almost certainly happen near and east of the center of circulation. As of this moment, the official NHC forecast “cone of uncertainty” shows that there is a significant chance the core of Michael will pass just to the southeast of our local area. This would put vast majority of the local area on the “better” western side of the system. IF this scenario pans out, inland areas of southwest Alabama would have very little in the way of wind impacts. Gusty winds (20-30mph) would still be possible at the immediate coastline/beach areas. I caution, however, that the cone of uncertainty extends from near Pensacola eastward to Cedar Key, FL. That is still a very wide swath of coastline where the center of circulation may make landfall. If the track shifts farther west in future advisories, we will have to significantly adjust the high wind potential impacts for our local area.
TORNADO POTENTIAL… The right, front quadrant of Tropical Storm Michael will be the most likely area for tornadoes to happen. IF current forecast trends verify, much of our local area would be on the WEST side of the system, meaning the tornado risk would be much, much lower (if not zero) for us. This would mean an enhanced risk of tornadoes for areas along and east of the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Dothan, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola).
HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL… Regardless of how strong Michael becomes OR where the center makes landfall, heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding will be a concern across the eastern fringe of our local area. The greatest risk of flash flooding would almost certainly be in Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, and Covington counties IF current forecast trends verify. 2-3” of rain will be possible in these counties with lesser rain amounts to the north and east. 5-6” of rain is not out of the question for areas near/east the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Dothan, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola). Overall, this will likely be more a nuisance than anything hazardous, based on current trends.
STORM SURGE POTENTIAL… The common theme continues in the storm surge category in that significant storm surge will be possible along and east of the center of circulation. There could be some storm surge in northwest Florida to the west of the center as well, but I do think because of the offshore flow, that will help to mitigate some of the storm surge issues on the western flank of the storm.
GOOD NEWS, FOR NOW… It’s good news, for now. The core of what will likely be a strengthening Hurricane Michael will pass just to our southeast, potentially bringing multiple hazardous to counties just to our southeast in the Florida Panhandle. Forecast changes ARE possible, and it’s important that we do not let our guard down just yet. I have cancelled my presentation schedule through Wednesday evening to continue to be in studio keeping tabs on this developing storm.
Please reach out if you have specific questions and please continue to monitor my public-facing statements for the latest information. I’m grateful for the support of our RedZone Weather sponsors who empower me to bring the latest information to the people of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Thanks again for your support.
NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… Tomorrow: Monday, October 8, 2018.