HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTLINE…
STRENGTHENING MICHAEL MOVING NORTH A BIT QUICKER… Tropical Storm Michael continues to gain strength and move northward this morning in the Yucatan Channel between the Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from the Alabama-Florida border eastward to the Suwanee River. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the entirety of the Alabama coastline. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph. The speed of the tropical storm will increase in the hours ahead, and Michael will be racing northward in about 36 hours. While local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will likely be mitigated somewhat IF the center of circulation passes to our east, there is a chance that further forecast refinements will cause the cone of uncertainty to have to be shifted back to the west.
HURRICANE WATCH & TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED… The National Hurricane Center indicates that a Hurricane Watch is in effect for much of the Florida Panhandle coastline from the Alabama-Florida border eastward to the Suwanee River. This hurricane watch includes places like Pensacola, Milton, Navarre, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Opal Beach, Mary Esther, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Eglin AFB, Panama City, Port St. Joe, Apalachicola, Mexico Beach, Carrabelle, St. George Island, Eastpoint, Tyndall AFB, Laguna Beach, Rosemary Beach, and Seaside. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for the entirety of Mobile and Baldwin counties in southwest Alabama.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER… The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center now suggests that Michael could be a category 2 hurricane at landfall later this week. This is reflected across the global model data that has been coming in over the last 24 hours. Areas near the landfall point and where the core of Michael moves inland could have SIGNIFICANT effects from what could be a major hurricane at landfall. Don’t be surprised to see intensity guidance rise even higher as Michael continues to rapidly strengthen.
LOCAL IMPACTS SUMMARY… Below, you’ll see a detailed assessment of potential local impacts for south Alabama and northwest Florida, the area that RedZone Weather serves on a daily basis. redzoneweather.com/coverage outlines our coverage policy. If you’re in the Florida Panhandle east of Crestview or Destin, we’re glad you’re here and reading this although please understand that our commitment is for areas to your west.
NOTE ABOUT LOCAL IMPACTS… Much of the following potential impacts assessment has not changed since last evening. If the current projected path verifies, that would be good news for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Unfortunately, this would be a bad scenario for much of the Florida Panhandle near Panama City, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola, Blountstown, and Marianna. High (80-100mph) wind gusts would be possible in those areas, especially near the coastline. The good news is ALL of our local area would be on the “better” western flank of the system. This means the winds would be out of the north for us, creating an offshore flow at the coastline. Heavy rain would be a concern across parts of Okaloosa, Walton, and Covington counties in addition to the Florida Panhandle and the Wiregrass region.
Again, the following impacts would verify if the current projected path of Michael actually verifies. Further forecast refinements are possible in the hours ahead. STAY TUNED!
HIGH WIND POTENTIAL… The most dangerous area of strong winds will almost certainly happen near and east of the center of circulation. As of this moment, the official NHC forecast “cone of uncertainty” shows that there is a significant chance the core of Michael will pass just to the southeast of our local area. This would put vast majority of the local area on the “better” western side of the system. IF this scenario pans out, inland areas of southwest Alabama would have very little in the way of wind impacts. Gusty winds (20-30mph) would still be possible at the immediate coastline/beach areas. I caution, however, that the cone of uncertainty extends from near Pensacola eastward to Cedar Key, FL. That is still a very wide swath of coastline where the center of circulation may make landfall. If the track shifts farther west in future advisories, we will have to significantly adjust the high wind potential impacts for our local area.
TORNADO POTENTIAL… The right, front quadrant of Tropical Storm Michael will be the most likely area for tornadoes to happen. IF current forecast trends verify, much of our local area would be on the WEST side of the system, meaning the tornado risk would be much, much lower (if not zero) for us. This would mean an enhanced risk of tornadoes for areas along and east of the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Dothan, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola).
HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL… Regardless of how strong Michael becomes OR where the center makes landfall, heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding will be a concern across the eastern fringe of our local area. The greatest risk of flash flooding would almost certainly be in Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, and Covington counties IF current forecast trends verify. 2-3” of rain will be possible in these counties with lesser rain amounts to the north and east. 5-6” of rain is not out of the question for areas near/east the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Dothan, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola).
STORM SURGE POTENTIAL… The common theme continues in the storm surge category in that significant storm surge will be possible along and east of the center of circulation. There could be some storm surge in northwest Florida to the west of the center as well, but I do think because of the offshore flow, that will help to mitigate some of the storm surge issues on the western flank of the storm.
APP ALERTS… Be sure to turn ON Low-Level Alerts if you like a LOT of information. Turn ON Medium-Level Alerts if you just want the important alerts. You can also turn on your specific local county (if you’re in our Primary Coverage Area in south Alabama or northwest Florida) to get customized alerts for your area. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download.
I will have plenty of updates throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. Let me know if you have any questions. Enjoy your Monday!