POTENTIAL IMPACT MAPS ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE MORE AREAS LOCALLY…
EVACUATION ORDERS BEING ISSUED FOR SOME COASTAL AREAS… Hurricane Michael is now in the southern Gulf of Mexico and is moving northward a bit faster. I mentioned in my previous update that the projected path and cone of uncertainty had again been nudged to the west of the previous tracks. There are some indications that the National Hurricane Center may have to again adjust the projected path a hair more to the left/west as new model data continues to vehemently suggest the idea of a northwest Florida landfall. We note that varying levels of evacuation orders are being issued this evening for parts of the northwest Florida coast where Hurricane Warnings continue. If you get an evacuation order, we strongly encourage you to GET OUT! Property can be replaced. YOU can’t! Michael is expected to be a category 3 major hurricane at landfall.
EVACUATION ORDERS BEING ISSUED… At the moment in our primary coverage area, Okaloosa County is the only area where evacuation orders have been issued. From Okaloosa County: “We are currently under an ORDERED evacuation for zones A, B, and C. (This means coastal areas, low-lying areas, and all land south of U.S. Highway 98.) Please leave the area if this includes where you are.” Ongoing evacuation orders continue in parts of Walton, Bay, and Gulf counties as well. For more information about Florida Panhandle evacuations, visit https://www.mypanhandle.com for WMBB in Panama City.
HURRICANE WARNING… A Hurricane Warning and is in effect from the Alabama-Florida border eastward to the Suwanee River. The following counties are included in a Hurricane WARNING in northwest Florida: Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, and Escambia [FL]. Just to our east, Walton, Bay, Gulf, Franklin, Calhoun [FL], Liberty, Jackson [FL], Washington [FL], and Holmes counties are included in the Hurricane Warning. Hurricane conditions will be possible in the warning area within 36 hours. This hurricane warning includes places like Pensacola, Milton, Navarre, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Opal Beach, Mary Esther, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Eglin AFB, Panama City, Port St. Joe, Apalachicola, Mexico Beach, Carrabelle, St. George Island, Eastpoint, Tyndall AFB, Laguna Beach, Rosemary Beach, and Seaside. We also note that Geneva and Houston counties in southeast Alabama are involved in a Hurricane Warning.
HURRICANE WATCH… A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Alabama/Florida border
westward to the Mississippi/Alabama border. This includes Mobile and Baldwin counties.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING… A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the Alabama/Florida border westward to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Mobile and Baldwin counties. Tropical storm conditions will be possible, especially near the coastline in the next 36-48 hours.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH… Inland areas of southwest Alabama, including Conecuh, Monroe, Escambia [AL], Butler, Crenshaw, and Covington counties are under a Tropical Storm Watch as there is still at least some potential that the track of Hurricane Michael MAY have to be adjusted westward. There is a good chance at this point that many of these inland areas will not have tropical storm force winds, but I think it’s a great call on the part of our local National Weather Service office to issue this just in case the track of Michael has to be shifted farther west.
HIGH WIND POTENTIAL… Since Hurricane Michael may be a major hurricane at landfall, there is a growing chance that the wind field associated with the landfalling system may be quite large. In addition, since we’re still not entirely sure where the core of the hurricane will move inland, that is why we have a hurricane warning in effect from AL/FL border eastward to the Suwanee River. The hurricane force winds won’t extend outward very far compared to the much larger tropical storm force wind field, however because of track uncertainty, it is a prudent move to have the Hurricane Warning in place for many more areas. As of this moment, the official NHC forecast “cone of uncertainty” shows that there is a significant chance the core of Michael will pass just to the southeast of our local area. This would put vast majority of the local area on the “better” western side of the system, although high winds would still be possible in Covington and Okaloosa counties and near the immediate coastline perhaps in Santa Rosa and Escambia [FL] counties.
TORNADO POTENTIAL… The right, front quadrant of Tropical Storm Michael will be the most likely area for tornadoes to happen. IF current forecast trends verify, much of our local area would be on the WEST side of the system, meaning the tornado risk would be much, much lower (if not zero) for most of us. This would mean an enhanced risk of tornadoes for areas along and east of the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Dothan, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola). IF the center of circulation makes more of a northerly jog toward Laguna Beach or Destin, however, there could be a tornado risk across Walton, Okaloosa, Covington counties, in addition to the Florida Panhandle and the Wiregrass region of southeast Alabama.
HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL… Regardless of how strong Michael becomes OR where the center makes landfall, heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding will be a concern across the eastern fringe of our local area. The greatest risk of flash flooding would almost certainly be in Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, and Covington counties IF current forecast trends verify. 2-3” of rain will be possible in these counties with lesser rain amounts to the north and east. 7-8” of rain is not out of the question for areas near/east the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola).
STORM SURGE POTENTIAL… A Storm Surge Warning has been issued this evening for much of the Florida Panhandle. If you live near or at the immediate coastline, TAKE THE STORM SURGE THREAT SERIOUSLY. 8-10 feet of water rise is not out of the question in low-lying areas near the immediate beaches near and south of Panama City. Storm surge of 2-4 feet is not out of the question at Destin, Fort Walton Beach, and points just to the east and west of there. Again, if you get an evacuation order, HEED IT and leave! Storm surge kills way too many people in our nation.
APP… Many more updates will be posted this evening and on Tuesday in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
I’ll have more updates over the next few hours over on Twitter and in the RedZone Weather app. My next video will be up by 7:15AM here on Facebook. See you then!