MICHAEL NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE…
HURRICANE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR NORTHWEST FLORIDA… Hurricane Michael continues to move toward the northern Gulf Coast. Maximum sustained winds are at 100 mph this morning, as measured by the USAF “Hurricane Hunter” aircraft crew. Michael will likely make landfall somewhere near Panama City as a category 3 hurricane on Wednesday. Landfall could happen as far west as Destin or as far east as St. Marks in the Big Bend region of Florida. This will be a potentially devastating storm for parts of “the Forgotten Coast” of the Florida Panhandle. PLENTY of details are below about current watches and warnings and potential impacts…
Many official watches and warnings are in effect this morning. A review of each product, along with who is included in each product is below…
The Hurricane Warning is in effect from the Alabama-Florida border eastward to the Suwanee River.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NW FLORIDA… In our local area, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, and Escambia [FL] counties in northwest Florida are included in the Hurricane Warning. This includes places like Pensacola, Perdido Key, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Milton, Bagdad, Avalon Beach, Opal Beach, Mulat, Pensacola Beach, Mary Esther, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Eglin AFB, Niceville, VPS, Crestview, Baker, Milligan, Deerland, Auburn (FL), Campton, and Laurel Hill.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR FL PANHANDLE… Just to our east, Walton, Bay, Gulf, Franklin, Calhoun [FL], Liberty, Jackson [FL], Washington [FL], and Holmes counties are included in the Hurricane Warning. That includes places like Panama City, Seaside, Laguna Beach, Rosemary Beach, Santa Rosa Beach, Freeport, Bruce, Red Bay, De Funiak Springs, Mossy Head, Bonifay, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola, Mexico Beach, Indian Pass, Cape San Blas, Wewahitchka, Lynn Haven, Parker, Panama City Beach, and Tyndall AFB.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… Geneva and Houston counties in southeast Alabama are also included in the Hurricane Warning. That includes places like Dothan, Cottonwood, Rehobeth, Slocomb, Geneva, and Samson.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL ALABAMA… A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southern halves of Mobile and Baldwin counties. This means that tropical storm conditions will be possible within the next 24-36 hours. A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for the southern halves of Mobile and Baldwin counties, meaning conditions are being monitored for the potential for hurricane force winds. At this point, it seems unlikely that hurricane force winds will happen in Mobile and Baldwin counties, however. Don’t be surprised to see the Hurricane Watch dropped later today or tomorrow. Tropical storm force wind gusts will be possible, especially near the Alabama beaches.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR INLAND AREAS… Inland areas of southwest Alabama, including Conecuh, Monroe, Escambia [AL], Butler, Crenshaw, and Covington counties are under a Tropical Storm Watch as there is still at least some potential that the track of Hurricane Michael MAY have to be adjusted westward. There is a good chance at this point that many of these inland areas will not have tropical storm force winds, but I think it’s a great call on the part of our local National Weather Service office to issue this just in case the track of Michael has to be shifted farther west. This includes places like Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Appleton, Greenville, Georgiana, Chapman, Oaky Streak, Luverne, Brantley, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Carolina, Rose Hill, Gantt, Red Level, and Straughn.
EVACUATION ORDERS IN EFFECT… At the moment in our primary coverage area, Okaloosa County is the only area where evacuation orders have been issued. From Okaloosa County: “We are currently under an ORDERED evacuation for zones A, B, and C. (This means coastal areas, low-lying areas, and all land south of U.S. Highway 98.) Please leave the area if this includes where you are.” Ongoing evacuation orders continue in parts of Walton, Bay, Franklin, and Gulf counties as well. For more information about Florida Panhandle evacuations, visit https://www.mypanhandle.com for WMBB in Panama City.
The following potential impacts statements remain right on target this morning for south Alabama and northwest Florida. They largely have not been changed since last evening.
HIGH WIND POTENTIAL… Since Hurricane Michael may be a major hurricane at landfall, there is a growing chance that the wind field associated with the landfalling system may be quite large. In addition, since we’re still not entirely sure where the core of the hurricane will move inland, that is why we have a hurricane warning in effect from AL/FL border eastward to the Suwanee River. The hurricane force winds won’t extend outward very far compared to the much larger tropical storm force wind field, however because of track uncertainty, it is a prudent move to have the Hurricane Warning in place for many more areas. As of this moment, the official NHC forecast “cone of uncertainty” shows that there is a significant chance the core of Michael will pass just to the southeast of our local area. This would put vast majority of the local area on the “better” western side of the system, although high winds would still be possible in Covington and Okaloosa counties and near the immediate coastline perhaps in Santa Rosa and Escambia [FL] counties.
TORNADO POTENTIAL… The right, front quadrant of Tropical Storm Michael will be the most likely area for tornadoes to happen. IF current forecast trends verify, much of our local area would be on the WEST side of the system, meaning the tornado risk would be much, much lower (if not zero) for most of us. This would mean an enhanced risk of tornadoes for areas along and east of the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Dothan, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola). IF the center of circulation makes more of a northerly jog toward Laguna Beach or Destin, however, there could be a tornado risk across Walton, Okaloosa, Covington counties, in addition to the Florida Panhandle and the Wiregrass region of southeast Alabama.
HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL… Regardless of how strong Michael becomes OR where the center makes landfall, heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding will be a concern across the eastern fringe of our local area. The greatest risk of flash flooding would almost certainly be in Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, and Covington counties IF current forecast trends verify. 2-3” of rain will be possible in these counties with lesser rain amounts to the north and east. 7-8” of rain is not out of the question for areas near/east the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola).
STORM SURGE POTENTIAL… A Storm Surge Warning has been issued this evening for much of the Florida Panhandle. If you live near or at the immediate coastline, TAKE THE STORM SURGE THREAT SERIOUSLY. 8-10 feet of water rise is not out of the question in low-lying areas near the immediate beaches near and south of Panama City. Storm surge of 2-4 feet is not out of the question at Destin, Fort Walton Beach, and points just to the east and west of there. Again, if you get an evacuation order, HEED IT and leave!
APP… Many consistent updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
I’ll have more updates over the next few hours over on Twitter and in the RedZone Weather app. My next video will be later today/this evening here on Facebook. Have a nice Tuesday!