MICHAEL LIKELY TO PASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST… RZW Exec partners, good morning! The latest projected path/forecast from the National Hurricane Center continues to show that much of the impact from Hurricane Michael will happen near or just to our southeast. This could be a potentially devastating hurricane for areas in Bay and Gulf counties in the Florida Panhandle, in areas near Panama City, Tyndall Air Force Base, Mexico Beach, and Port Saint Joe.
The following potential impacts statements have been modified slightly for south Alabama and northwest Florida.
HIGH WIND POTENTIAL… Since Hurricane Michael will likely be a major hurricane at landfall, there is a high chance that the wind field associated with the landfalling system may be quite large. The hurricane force winds won’t extend outward very far compared to the much larger tropical storm force wind field. Please notice the verbiage in the graphic above, in that each zone is a POSSIBLE zone. These are (at this time) the higher end of how strong winds will be in a given area. There is a good chance that winds across our area in south Alabama and northwest Florida won’t reach the high numbers in the outlined zones in the graphic above. Clearly, the greatest chance of strong winds in our area will almost certainly happen in Okaloosa, southern Santa Rosa, and southern Covington counties. The stronger winds are likely to be in Walton, Bay, and Gulf counties in the Florida Panhandle.
TORNADO POTENTIAL… The right, front quadrant of Tropical Storm Michael will be the most likely area for tornadoes to happen. There is high confidence that our local area will be on the WEST side of the system, meaning the tornado risk would be much, much lower (if not zero) for most of us. This would mean an enhanced risk of tornadoes for areas along and east of the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Dothan, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola). If a rogue, brief, spin-up tornado happened to occur in our local area, it would likely happen in Okaloosa or Covington counties.
HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL… Regardless of how strong Michael becomes OR where the center makes landfall, heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding will be a concern across the eastern fringe of our local area. The greatest risk of flash flooding will almost certainly be in Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, and Covington counties. 2-3” of rain will be possible in portions of these counties with lesser rain amounts to the north and east. Some spots in Clarke and Washington counties may not have any rain. 7-8” of rain is not out of the question for areas near/east the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola).
Let me know if you have any questions or need decision support as far as your organization or business! Plenty of updates will be posted today in the public-facing areas of the RedZone Weather app. If you missed our live morning video, I would encourage you to watch it as it is packed with the latest information! Here is the link for the video and the extremely detailed text discussion.
Have a great Tuesday!