TORNADOES LIKELY TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING… There is a significant risk of severe thunderstorms capable of producing significant tornadoes today across northwest Alabama, the northern half of Mississippi, and much of western Tennessee. Locally in south Alabama and northwest Florida, our severe weather risk is much lower today, but it’s not zero. Most of us are included in the Storm Prediction Center’s Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone. This means that atmospheric conditions may potentially support a strong storm or two, but widespread issues are not expected. Note that showers will increase in number throughout the day, with the core of the rain and storms passing by our local area on Tuesday morning.
CORE SEVERE RISK OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA… Communities like Florence, Muscle Shoals, Russellville, Moulton, Decatur, Huntsville, Haleyville, and Hamilton have the highest risk of experiencing severe weather in the state of Alabama today. These locales in northwest Alabama are where the severe weather parameters/ingredients will be highest. There still very well could be a strong to severe storm in other areas of the state, but those areas have the greatest risk today.
LEVEL 1 RISK LOCALLY… South Alabama and northwest Florida remains in the lower-end Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone this evening into Tuesday. The greatest chance of severe weather locally will happen across west Alabama in Clarke, Wilcox, Marengo, Choctaw, and Washington counties, although even these areas are now included in the lower risk zone. We’ll monitor radar trends and keep you posted if we have any warnings. There is a good chance no tornado warnings will be needed for this event in our area, however the risk is not zero. We’ll be watching!
UNSTABLE AIR THROUGH THURSDAY… You’ll notice the air feeling very sticky and humid over the next few days. While a cold front is responsible for the severe weather risk to our north, it is a front that is ushering in only slightly cooler air. The “bigger” cold front will move by late on Thursday, ushering in cool, dry air for the Alabama & NW Florida weekend.
MORE STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY… There is a chance we could be dealing with yet another round of strong to severe storms on Thursday into Friday as this next cold front approaches from the northwest. We’ll be able to get much more specific in the days ahead about this risk. Let’s get through the severe weather potential tonight into Tuesday for areas mainly to our north, then we will start focusing on Thursday.
See all the details in your Monday #rzw forecast video…