STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY; HEAVY RAIN LIKELY… Isolated tornadoes will become possible across portions of south Alabama and northwest Florida on Monday as an area of low pressure moves by from the west. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of our area in their Level 1 (out of 5), low-end, marginal severe weather risk zone valid for Monday.
3 POTENTIAL HAZARDS
1) There is a chance that our local area will have a few isolated tornadoes due to supercell thunderstorms out ahead of a squall line of storms that is likely to move by late in the day on Monday.
2) We’ll also need to monitor the stronger storms as damaging straight line winds will also be possible. The damaging wind gust risk will be greatest when the main line of storms passes through the area, likely later in the evening on Monday based on the latest guidance.
3) The likelihood of heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding in spots is very high. We will likely introduce an uncommon 100% probability of rain for Monday in upcoming forecasts. Most spots locally will pick up 2 to 3 inches of rain, with some isolated spots possibly reporting 4″ of rain before the event is over. See the latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast below. This is a projection telling us how much rain (in total) is expected from this event.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING
There will likely be changes with this in the next 24-48 hours as we nail down specifics. Impacts in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida will become possible as early as 6AM and extend to as late as 11PM on Monday, November 12. The greatest likelihood of severe weather (core timeframe) will happen from Noon to 9PM.
Below is a look at the North American Model (3km NAM) valid at 3PM CST on Monday. If this model view happened to be right, we would have developing supercell thunderstorms out ahead of a robust QLCS/squall line of thunderstorms that would be advancing eastward. Note that the tornado risk would begin far in advance of the line of storms arriving. The tornado risk would also be greatest when/if supercell storms develop. The damaging wind threat will be greatest AS the main line of storms passes by a given location.
NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… We will begin the public messaging about this potential severe weather event within the next few hours across social media and in the public-facing sections of the RedZone Weather app. The next RZW Exec update about this severe weather potential will be posted by 4PM on Sunday. As always, let me know if you have any specific decision support needs and/or questions. Have a great Saturday evening!
