ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY… Isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line winds will be possible on Saturday, particularly in the morning and early afternoon hours, across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The atmosphere will become increasingly unstable late Friday night into Saturday as a warm front lifts northward from the Gulf of Mexico. This will set the stage for the severe weather potential Saturday morning. You’ll need to have a way to receive warnings before you go to sleep Friday night and in place through the daytime hours of Saturday.
SLIGHT RISK FOR ALL LOCAL AREAS… The southern half of Alabama and all of northwest Florida is included in the Storm Prediction Center’s Level 2 (out of 5), standard slight risk zone. This means that the entirety of the local area is included. Mobile, Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach, Destin, Crestview, Florala, Andalusia, Opp, Greenville, Georgiana, Luverne, Geneva, Dothan, Troy, Eufaula, Enterprise, Evergreen, Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Poarch, Huxford, Uriah, Monroeville, Beatrice, Thomasville, Camden, Sweet Water, Butler, Toxey, Silas, Coffeeville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Chatom, Millry, Fruitdale, Wagerville, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Saraland, Wilmer, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Farihope, Foley, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Silverhill, Elberta, Ft. Morgan, Perdido Key, Molino, Century, Walnut Hill, Milton, Jay, Berrydale, Navarre, Chumuckla, Allentown, Holt, Harold, Mary Esther, and Niceville are ALL included.
TORNADOES & WIND MAIN CONCERNS… Isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line winds will be the main concerns in the stronger storms. Some weather models are depicting the potential for a few supercell thunderstorms late Saturday morning. Any supercells that become discrete and isolated will have the greatest tornado potential. Definitely something to monitor as we get closer to this potential event. The risk of large hail is low, but not zero. The hail risk will happen in any supercells that can become isolated. Flash flooding impacts look to be negligible at this time.
TIMING OF THE STORMS… A few rain showers may happen across west Alabama as early as this evening. More consistent rain will happen Friday evening into early Saturday morning. The severe weather risk will extend from approximately 4AM on Saturday to 4PM Saturday evening. The core of the severe weather risk will happen when we have the greatest combination of ingredients in place for storm formation, likely between 9AM and 2PM.
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, we strongly encourage you to set up customized app alerts in the RedZone Weather app. Once you have the app downloaded, visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the handcrafted alerts you’d like to receive straight from me.
I’ll have an in-depth video update posted by 7:15AM on Friday in the RedZone Weather app and on Facebook. Let me know if you have specific questions. See you then!