LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this evening into the morning hours of Friday, mainly across the far western fringes of Alabama. A potent line of storms is currently moving east across Mississippi and Louisiana. This line of storms will likely weaken as it approaches the Alabama-Mississippi state line tonight. The overall risk of severe weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida remains VERY low through this evening but the risk will increase slightly after 8PM across west Alabama. Rain coverage will likely increase throughout the day, and there may be some thunder involved this evening. Storms will cross our area from west to east on Friday morning. Let’s look at the situation as it stands right now and discuss what you can expect into Friday…
STORMS TO OUR WEST
Strong to severe thunderstorms are moving eastward across southern Mississippi and Louisiana. A Tornado Watch continues to our west valid until 6PM. New Orleans, Jackson (MS), McComb, and Baton Rouge are all included in the watch area. We note several tornado warnings have happened along the line as it continues to push eastward. This line of storms will likely peak in intensity over the next few hours before weakening after sunset. This is good news for our local area, as the line of storms will likely break apart somewhat as it moves into our local area late tonight or early on Friday.
GREATEST RISK: WEST ALABAMA
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to include parts of extreme west Alabama in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone. Parts of Choctaw, Washington, and Mobile counties are included. IF severe weather happens in the state of Alabama, it will likely occur near the AL/MS state line as this main line of storms approaches from the west. We note that SPC has now included basically all of the local area in a low-end, Level 1 risk zone valid for Friday morning after 6AM. The severe weather risk will end from west to east as the main line of storms passes a given location on Friday morning.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING
Based on the latest radar data, this line of storms is moving quickly eastward across Mississippi. It certainly seems like the decaying line of storms could reach west Alabama a bit earlier than guidance has indicated, thus it seems prudent to suggest that IF severe weather happens in southwest Alabama, it is most likely to happen between 11PM Thursday and 5AM on Friday. Please keep in mind that storms will almost certainly be weakening as they move into Alabama, and there is a significant chance we come through this event without any tornado warnings in our local area. On the other end of the spectrum, however, there is also a chance we could have a few, brief tornadoes across the region. The truth of what will happen is probably in the middle of those two scenarios, with a tornado warning or two being possible.
2-5″ OF RAIN AHEAD
The (above) Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is valid through Monday, December 31. Even though our severe weather risk will end long before then, there is still a chance of flash flooding through the middle part of next week. Parts of west Alabama may have upwards of 5 inches of rain, with most of us picking up 3-4″ before all is said and done. Localized flash flooding issues will be possible, especially across the western half of our local area. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entirety of our local area other than Okaloosa and Covington counties.
CONTINUING COVERAGE
This will be the final RZW Exec update about this severe weather potential as my focus shifts to our public-facing products. Be sure to keep up with the updates throughout the afternoon/evening here in the main (REFRESH tab) feed of the RedZone Weather app. Let me know if you have any questions!